"Properly challenge"? I think we'll be in a group of two or three who pull away, and with half a dozen games to go we'll be within 3-4 points of the top. This is where you heard it first.
Maximum Respect Mick.Started this thread in November.Took some balls to do that back then .......Do you read palms ?
Took me a while to put this together, but I posted it in the "Where will we finish" thread as well, but I thought it would relevant in here too:Right, I’ve looked at the remaining fixtures in all competitions of the current top 5 in the league. I believe now that Everton and United won’t be able to catch us and in fact we’ll even put more distance between them and ourselves, so I haven’t bothered to look at any of their games. So here are the fixtures. Note a few things: With regards to Champions league I have only shown the quarters and semis on Chelsea’s fixture list since I highly doubt that Arsenal or City will progress. Even if they do, all the more fixtures for them. I have shown the FA cup fixtures for City and Arsenal. Should they both progress to the semis, Arsenal’s game with West Ham would have to be rescheduled as would our home game with City. And I’ve shown likely dates for when those games should be rescheduled. I’ve done the same with City’s game Vs Villa since that is due to be rescheduled any day now, but I have shown the likely times for when that’ll be. And finally I have shown the Europa League possible games for Spurs. They definitely have another 2 games to play in that (Vs Benfica) and a possible 2,4 or 5 more should they progress. Anyway, here’s what it looks like: http://i.imgur.com/o1qhylk.pngOur lack of games is a huge advantage here. Especially considering Spurs, City and Chelsea all have to play us at Anfield. Those games against City and Chelsea will be pivotal with regard to the title race. And assuming Chelsea progress to the CL quarters, their fixtures around the start off April look tricky. They wouldn’t have an easy CL opponent considering the quality going through to the last 8 (minus the winner of the Man U/ Olympiakos game). Same goes for Spurs (to a lesser extent) with the Europa League.Next, the top 5 teams from the past 5 seasons and how many points they finished with. Showing average points needed to finish top or 4th. Note that the team who finished in 4th place did not necessarily have the number of points NEEDED to finish 4th – e.g. in 08/09 Arsenal finished 4th with 72 points, but could have still finished there with just 64 points as the team in 5th (Everton) had only 63 points. Same goes for winning the title. Here’s what that looks like, with the current top 5 at the bottom.http://i.imgur.com/1PFWDfl.pngFirst off, let’s look at 4th place: It has taken an average of 67 points to finish 4th and 73 points has always been enough to finish there. We have 59 points currently, so another 8 points from our remaining games means we might finish 4th and another 14 points mean we would be in an excellent position to finish there. The expected points target for this season is based on the teams currently occupying 1st and 5th. So if Spurs continue their average points per game for the remaining 10 games, they would finish with 71 points, meaning it would take 72 for a 4th placed finish. Of course Spurs could improve their average points per game and finish with more points than 71; however, I would still be surprised to see us finish below them now. Big game when we play them at our place. That could see us out of their reach and hopefully not getting drawn into a battle for 4th. So now, looking at what we’re all dreaming of right now but aren’t letting ourselves believe just yet I’m aware that statement only actually rings true for a number of people and there are already plenty who believe we’ll win it – and good on them. Anyway, the league title. 1st place. It is possible isn’t it? And the more you look at the fixtures graphic, the more you believe we might just have the upper hand. So what do we have to do, to win the league? If city win their 2 games in hand they will leapfrog us, but the gap between us and top would remain 4 points. So let’s assume they do, just as a worst case scenario. We would have to catch 4 points on Chelsea and City over the next 10 games to win the title. Assuming by catching 4 points, our goal difference improved enough to beat City’s GD. With 59 points, we need 24 points from a possible 30 to finish with 84 points – the average needed to win it over the past 5 seasons. Should Chelsea and City keep up their points per game average, it would take 86 points to win it this season, in which case we would need 27 points from a possible 30. 24 points sounds do-able. 27 points perhaps not. But an awful lot hangs on the 2 games at Anfield Vs Chelsea and City. I believe that it will take 83 or 84 points to win the league this season. So can we get 24 or 25 points from a possible 30 in those remaining games? You’re looking at winning 7 of them at least and drawing the other 3 (24 points). Or better, winning 8 and drawing 2 or drawing 1 and losing 1 (25 or 26 points). Of course it depends which games you win and which you draw/lose. Better to beat City and Chelsea and draw against Spurs/ United than vice versa. Maintaining our average PPG, we would finish on 80 or 81 points I believe.There is still a fair bit to go, and I reckon at the end of March we will have a really good idea of just how far this team can go. Those next 4 games will be crucial.I personally believe we will finish comfortably inside the top 4 and that it’s actually Arsenal and Spurs in a fight for 4th place now (Arsenal will pip them to it). Will we do better than 3rd? I think so. Better than 2nd? We shall see. To win the league from here will take a few things: The same determination shown by the lads so far, the same calmness and brilliance by Brendan, the same leadership of Steven Gerrard that we’ve seen perhaps better than ever this season, and the belief of everyone that we can do it – and a little bit of luck! But from here, let’s take it one game at a time, and what better place to start, than with victory at Old Trafford.
If Carlsberg done run in's...United - Suarez runs around Old Trafford nutmegging himself as he scores a hat-trick. The Stretford End eats itself in a fit of rage as Moyes claims he's pleased they only conceded 3 and got to the byline 18 times. Now they're gonna believe us.Cardiff - Total destruction, Vincent Tan marches down from the stand in 65th minute and fires Solskjaer on the sideline. Fabio has to be brought to hospital with rectal bleeding after the rinsing he took from Sterling. Now they're gonna believe us.Sunderland - A resurgent Sunderland full of confidence after their great cup form only concede 6. Borini sitting in the stands, bites his own hand after every goal as a mark of respect to Suarez. Now they're gonna believe us.Spurs - Tim Sherwood turns up on a big red bus to Liverpool street, London. Soldado missed it. We win. Now they're gonna believe us.West Ham - Andy Carroll is standing in the centre circle telling Downing to lump it into the box. Kevin Nolan tackles himself at the corner flag and gets sent off. Rodgers out tactics Fat Sam by telling his team to use the ball to score goals. Now they're gonna believe us.Man City - Flanagan breaks Yaya in half with a tackle in the first minute. One Ya isn't as good as two. Henderson sets the record for most distance ever covered in a PL game. Rodgers takes him off after 35 minutes with the game already won. Now they're gonna believe us.Norwich - Suarez scores, Sturridge dances, Skrtel stares, Cissokho smiles, Mignolet Mignolets. Now they're gonna believe us.Chelsea - The decider, deadlocked after 93 minutes as Sterling skins Ivanovic and floats one last hopeful ball into the box. It's cleared by England's brave leader John Terry..... but only as far as Steven GERRARRRRRDDDDDDDDD who smashes it from 25 yards and bursts a hole in the net. Mourinho is going mental on the sideline claiming it never crossed the line. Torres cries. YNWA erupts around Anfield the likes of which hasn't being heard in 9 years. Now they're gonna believe us.Crystal Palace - Sakho asks for more balls to be lumped into the box but there are no more. The travelling Kop are having a party - Now they're gonna believe us.Newcastle - Kevin Keegan claims he'd love it, LOVE IT if he could get a ticket to the game. He can't. Rodgers erects a giant perch in the dugout and sits on it as he watches the game. JW Henry puffs a cigar, Linda is wrapped in a clean sheet. Aldo screams. God prays. The King has tears in his eyes. The Kop sings as it's never sang before. 24 f**king years and now, NOW they're gonna believe us.
Big Mick just loves a punt is all!You should have heard some of the stuff he came out with on the old newkit forum! Who would have put the terms "next Big Thing" and "Robert Earnshaw" together eh Mick lad
Kenwyne Jones!!!Just kidding Mick. Hope you are well mate.
After today I've changed my opinion. Chelsea are now our biggest rivals. This may have been a cup game today for City but they played a strong team and lost to Wigan at home. They're have been a number of results like this for City this season, even when they've been flying. I honestly think City's defence is similar to ours, but without Kompany it's worse. And their attack is not as good as ours. We need to beat them at Anfield, and that game will not be postponed any more after todays result. We need to beat them because we battered them at the Etihad and lost, and last season we battered them twice and drew 2-2 twice because of stupid mistakes. We owe them a hiding. If Rodgers gets it right again it could be another one like Arsenal I reckon. Anyway, United is our next game and I can't predict it. Tempted to say I'd take a draw but I want a win. A loss would be very disappointing after seeing the teams who have gone there this season and come away with points. West Brom and Fulham spring immediately to mind.
Chelsea are our main rival? You joking? City have 2 games in hand on us and are currently only 2 points behind us. Don't be so naïve to think that just because they got beat today in a one off cup game that their season is no miraculously over. There has been a number of times when City have been beaten at home by a much lesser team this season has there? You must be the only one with that incorrect fact flying round in your head. They've lost 1 league game (against top of the league Chelsea), 2 Champions League games (against arguably the 2 best teams in the world) and 1 FA Cup game. against Wigan today. You can't predict if we will beat United or not but you can predict that City are no longer in the title race? WOW! We have to win all of our remaining games to have any chance of winning the league and even then it may not pay off.
It's in City's hands atm, so they're favourites until they drop points from their games in hand, one of which is their derby which, as is standard anti-manc procedure, the only one I want them to win. Chelsea have the points on the board, but that's of no use to them if City win all their games in hand.All we can do is win our games and see where it takes us. Hopefully we will still be in the title hunt for a good while to come.
No. No.That's not what I said at all is it?I'm comparing City to Chelsea and saying that I now think that Chelsea are the favourites for the league and therefore will be our main rivals. Chelsea haven't looked fantastic but they have ground out results which is what will probably tell.I realise where City are and how many games in hand they have and where they'd be assuming they won those games in hand (please refer to my previous post on the last page spanning about half of that page if you think I'm unaware of that). City would go outright top by winning their games in hand had they not drew 0-0 with Norwich last week (another example of them dropping points when they've been flying. They will still go top on GD should they win the 3 games in hand they have over Chelsea. But right now, I think that 9 point gap that Chelsea have over them, even with games in hand, makes Chelsea favourites. The game against Wigan was a game that City would have been desperate to win, and they fielded a strong team, so what happened in that game, could easily happen again. Once again, I now think Chelsea are the favourites for the title, and surely that makes them the team to beat? Making them our biggest threat. Or is that a load of nonsense? And if we win our remaining 10 games that would win us the league (2 of those against City and Chelsea), since City would have to go their other 11 games without dropping a point, Chelsea would have to go their other 9 without dropping a point, and I don't see that happening. I don't think we will win our final 10 games, but I'm absolutely certain that we can still win the league even if we don't. 8 wins might even do it. Again, refer to my long post on the last page about previous winning totals, PPG etc.Or you could just misinterprate what I'm saying again and spout some more garbage.
Hey I remember Robert Earnshaw (in a "who would you sign for f*ck all?" Thread) but Kenwyne Jones? Never rated that useless c*nt Funnily enough I copped loads for the Earnshaw one but he went on to have the lowest goals per minute thing in the league except for Thierry Henri. Mind you, that last bit might be bollocks
I think we needed to see Chelsea drop some points at either Everton or Spurs or both, but they took all 6. I think we need to be within 2 points of them when they come to us so we will now need a favour from the likes of Villa while making sure we dont drop any points, tough ask that
I hope they drop points in other games but I hope they thrash the scum again, another 6-1 would be nice. All league concerns are suspended when teams play against the scum, as a matter of procedure.
The favourites are the team who have the points on the board, because common footballing sense dictates that games in hand are of no use, unless you win them. Which is why Chelsea are favourites to win the title, being 7 points clear with 10 games left.
it all depends on who those games in hand are against. City are clear favourites to me. They win their games in hand and they're top. Right now the bookies are also seeing man city as favourites.
27 points left up for grabs. Would 20 from 27 win the title?
Basically you're saying, our League aspirations don't matter. So you're more interested than them losing, than us winning...more interested in them losing than us winning the League. My god, how can any Liverpool fan think like that.I want Chelsea and City to lose every game from here on in so we can win the League.