Brendan Rodgers (Liverpool -> Celtic -> Leicester)

rebuilding

you know this whole idea of "rebuilding" and "moving forward" and its opposite "starting from scratch" are all really based on a lot of assumptions and guesswork and a lot of things all going right.

let me put it another way: how exactly do you KNOW we are going in the right direction?  I'm not just talking about Rodgers, but FSG, the players, everything.  How do you know we're going in the right direction?

I mean F***ing hell I think it was in 2006 that Bolton finished something like 5th.  I'm sure they thought they were going in the right direction.  didn't work out well for them didn't it.

The point is, you really have no way to know that in fact the road we're on is the right one.  It might be!  but it might not be.  You think that consistency is somehow the answer to everything but Everton had Moyes for more than a decade and never won a damn thing.  So consistency doesn't always bring success.  It can definitely bring about mediocrity though.

We just got rid of one of the top 3 players in world football and replaced him with a bunch of mid-table superstars.  On its surface that doesn't seem like "going in the right direction."  The results since then and the regression of several players from last season only prove the point even further. 

it IS possible that in fact we are going in the wrong direction, and it would be better to rip it up and start from scratch than wait another 2-3 years and have to do it anyway.  If we finish 10th this season and Madrid come in with a massive bid for Sterling, do you think he's going to say no?  then if he goes, we'll have lost Suarez and Sterling and still have nothing to show for it.  Oh but it'll be okay as long as we are consistent apparently.

Look.  All I'm saying is there is no way to know that we are going in the right direction or not.  We may well be doing.  But we might not be either.

And yet everyone just assumes that as long as you keep ploughing ahead you are doing the right thing.

I don't take quite as much encouragement as some do from the Man Ure & Bournemouth games. Against that lot we lost 3-0 and despite the chances they always looked in control to me as soon as they scored - I'm sorry but I'm never going to be able to take "comfort" from that. We did look more fluid and dynamic against an already overachieving Bournemouth team.....but surely we should.

Today is a big test for me - can we carry the game at home against another under-performing "big" team? 

BR has made a big call with Migs - I applaud him for it - but I can't help but think there are one or two others (Lovren and Allen specifically) that he needs to make.

The group are low on confidence and (to me) consistently they are the weakest links - I honestly can't work out if he keeps picking them because he has little option or because he feels they have to come good because of the money he's spent on them.

Regardless - when you're in a hole Brendan......you don't keep digging.

you know this whole idea of "rebuilding" and "moving forward" and its opposite "starting from scratch" are all really based on a lot of assumptions and guesswork and a lot of things all going right.

Correct. Absolutely correct.

let me put it another way: how exactly do you KNOW we are going in the right direction?  I'm not just talking about Rodgers, but FSG, the players, everything.  How do you know we're going in the right direction?

I personally don't. But based on what I've seen this last month, and with talk of the transfer committee being overhauled, and Studge due back, I'm assuming we are moving in the right direction. How do YOU know we are not?

I mean F***ing hell I think it was in 2006 that Bolton finished something like 5th.  I'm sure they thought they were going in the right direction.  didn't work out well for them didn't it.

Correct. Though when Man U didn't win the league that particular season before they did actually win it for the first in 26 years, they were probably thinking things were looking bright and moving in the right direction, and the rest is history. In short, your analogy proves very little - either way.

The point is, you really have no way to know that in fact the road we're on is the right one.  It might be!  but it might not be.

Fed, that's all people are saying; that they 'think' things are moving in the right direction (I've given you my reasons for thinking so).

  You think that consistency is somehow the answer to everything but Everton had Moyes for more than a decade and never won a damn thing.  So consistency doesn't always bring success.  It can definitely bring about mediocrity though.

I think consistently winning and improving is the answer to, well, consistently winning and improving. Your example is flawed because Moyes was nothing more than a manager in a consistent job with a consistent mid table team. There's positive consistency, negative, and mediocre. Anything could qualify as being consistent as long as the status quo is maintained.

We just got rid of one of the top 3 players in world football and replaced him with a bunch of mid-table superstars.  On its surface that doesn't seem like "going in the right direction."  The results since then and the regression of several players from last season only prove the point even further.

Correct. Up until the point where I NOW (currently, this moment) believe things are moving in the right direction. All to do with perspective

it IS possible that in fact we are going in the wrong direction,

Yup. True. It's also entirely possible that we are now going in the right direction.

and it would be better to rip it up and start from scratch than wait another 2-3 years and have to do it anyway.

Wait. What? We ripped it up and started from scratch so many times this last half a dozen seasons that my head is spinning (as was Rafa's, Roy's and KK's probably). This is the EXACT reason WHY we need to keep the Gaffer at least until season's end and not rip things up - because the evidence however small, points to the fact that we are now moving in the right direction (for the reasons see above).

If we finish 10th this season and Madrid come in with a massive bid for Sterling, do you think he's going to say no?  then if he goes, we'll have lost Suarez and Sterling and still have nothing to show for it.  Oh but it'll be okay as long as we are consistent apparently.

'If' that happens, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. I can't deal in hypothetical straw man arguments. Or, if so, I put it to you, what if we finish 4th and buy Higuain and capture Khedeira? That's a hypothetical situation of moving in the right direction; but until yours or my hypothetical situation comes to fruition, it's all hot air and assumptions based on trying to predict the future.

Look.  All I'm saying is there is no way to know that we are going in the right direction or not.  We may well be doing.  But we might not be either.

Correct. That's all anyone is saying. Some are saying we might be moving in the wrong direction and others are saying we might be moving in the right direction; you just seem to have a beef with those claiming we are moving in the right direction.

And yet everyone just assumes that as long as you keep ploughing ahead you are doing the right thing.

I haven't see one poster who has said 'as long as we keep ploughing ahead 'regardless of how poor we are playing' we are going in the right direction. Nobody is saying mediocre is great and let's just keep THAT consistent.

People are saying they believe we are moving in the right direction and they are giving their reason, and it's THAT part I think you have missed; that there are 'reasons' some think we are moving in the right direction. They are only small reasons to be fair, and yes, if Arsenal beat us today, folk will re-evaluate the situation. But a win or a loss doesn't really tell the whole story either way. It's a marker, but not the be all and end all. What if Arsenal beat us but we continue to show clear improvement on the field in terms of performance? What if we dominate and they get a fluky penalty in the 92 min?

It's all very subjective where you might think we are right now, but to claim folk are closing their eyes and sticking fingers in their ears and shouting 'we are improving we ARE improving' is not accurate.

It's frustrating for sure, but in all honesty, I do believe we are starting to move in the right direction.

The manager deserves till at least the end of the season. We're not even at the halfway point yet and some have been openly campaigning for his removal for two months.

It's high time people were honest here, for the vast majority of them they simply don't want Brendan as the manager and they never did. No sane person for purely footballing reasons wants to sack last seasons manager of the year after a dozen games of the following season, not without a very serious agenda anyway.

For some it's that they want Rafa back "look while Ayre's still on the board it'll never happen/that ship has sailed/mind you he did do a f*cking unbelievable job/we were the number one ranked team in the all important FIFA rankings of the best team in the universe/I'd have him back in a heartbeat" is the normal cycle of their posts. Followed a day later by "wanting Rafa back? Not me, my criticism of Rodgers has nothing to do with that".

For others they simply don't like the manager on a personal level. There's something about his teeth or his haircut or some other thing which they can't get past.

For both groups though (or subgroups they'd probably call them these days) it doesn't really matter how we do. My guess is if we got into the top four this season then won the league next season before finishing third in 2017, they'd want Brendan out. Of course most of them will deny that, but I'm convinced it is the case.

The fact that we are missing two world class strikers from last season makes no difference, that they were number one and two in the scoring charts in the league (not sure where they were in FIFA rankings sorry) makes no difference. The fact that the majority of the summer transfer money was spent on players in their very early 20's makes no difference, nor does it make any difference that for the first time in a long time we had to compete in that pesky Champions League thing.

That's why I can't be bothered to justify why I think we ought to give the manager till the end of the season at least. When someone is so against the manager they cannot be convinced, what's the point in trying?

That's why I can't be bothered to justify why I think we ought to give the manager till the end of the season at least. When someone is so against the manager they cannot be convinced, what's the point in trying?

None so blind as those who don't want to see

Or something.

The manager deserves till at least the end of the season. We're not even at the halfway point yet and some have been openly campaigning for his removal for two months.

It's high time people were honest here, for the vast majority of them they simply don't want Brendan as the manager and they never did. No sane person for purely footballing reasons wants to sack last seasons manager of the year after a dozen games of the following season, not without a very serious agenda anyway.

For some it's that they want Rafa back "look while Ayre's still on the board it'll never happen/that ship has sailed/mind you he did do a f*cking unbelievable job/we were the number one ranked team in the all important FIFA rankings of the best team in the universe/I'd have him back in a heartbeat" is the normal cycle of their posts. Followed a day later by "wanting Rafa back? Not me, my criticism of Rodgers has nothing to do with that".

For others they simply don't like the manager on a personal level. There's something about his teeth or his haircut or some other thing which they can't get past.

For both groups though (or subgroups they'd probably call them these days) it doesn't really matter how we do. My guess is if we got into the top four this season then won the league next season before finishing third in 2017, they'd want Brendan out. Of course most of them will deny that, but I'm convinced it is the case.

The fact that we are missing two world class strikers from last season makes no difference, that they were number one and two in the scoring charts in the league (not sure where they were in FIFA rankings sorry) makes no difference. The fact that the majority of the summer transfer money was spent on players in their very early 20's makes no difference, nor does it make any difference that for the first time in a long time we had to compete in that pesky Champions League thing.

That's why I can't be bothered to justify why I think we ought to give the manager till the end of the season at least. When someone is so against the manager they cannot be convinced, what's the point in trying?

I get where you're coming from Mick but I do think it's more nuanced than that.

For example I'm (openly) in a 3rd group the "never really been convinced but think, as things stand, that he should get another window and to the end of the season" group.

I have to say though - having spoken to some of those that you would put into the first 2 groups - I do think that there's some undoubtedly sincere LFC fans who just don't think that BR is good enough.

What's my point....I guess just that it's easy to become polarised in either direction. It's perfectly possible to be a good Red and just not think he's up to the job.

Agreeing is a different matter of course.

because that basically means that no matter what the consequences are for the club, it doesn't matter, because Rodgers has earned the right to inflict anything he wants on us until the end of this season.

and that doesn't really add up.

No it "doesn't add up" - in your head Fed: I can see that but you have to remember that, in your head, Brendan is wantonly and purposely 'inflicting' pain. I don't know why he would do that but if that is your reality; fair enough. However...

Some, if not all of us, don't share what we see as your somewhat skewed vision of the man. Most of us believe he has merely made mistakes and or has been the victim, to some extent or another, of circumstance rather than someone who has been plotting our downfall.

it's sort like a woman saying "My husband was absolutely amazing towards me in 2014, so he has earned the right to beat me and emotionally abuse me for at least all of 2015.  he's earned it."

Again, given your psyche,I can see how you could come to that conclusion, but most fair and right-minded people might be thinking -  "My husband was amazing all of last year and given all the mitigating circumstances, I'm not going to desert him just because we are going through a sticky patch."

F**k me - I never thought I'd see the day I'd be giving marriage counselling on this forum... and for free for F**k's sake.     

No sane person for purely footballing reasons wants to sack last seasons manager of the year after a dozen games of the following season, not without a very serious agenda anyway.

Didn't that happen with Rafa tho' mate; weren't people calling for his head in somewhat similar fashion? What was your take on it then Mick?

Cast your mind back - were you sane or insane? 

When someone is so against the manager they cannot be convinced, what's the point in trying?

Spoken like a man with past experience. 

before I condemn Brendan for the chop, I'd like to see his strategy when Studge is available. Also, following the plaudits he received for making game changing tactical moves mid match last season, how will he change things if it's not going well today. Will he be brave enough to make the changes ?
He's dropped Mig who's been having a mare, what about Allen and Lovren who have been similar. He has the squad to do it, so why does he hesitate.
Lets see how he 'manages' the game today. And of course the rest of the games this season. How is his tactical awareness under this increasing pressure, and does he have the balls to drop his personal buys, and the big name established stars when they don't perform.
I 've always been an advocate of Paisley's philosophy,   'No sentiment, play your strongest in form side every game'  If that isn't good enough, ship out the weak links and reinvest.

Forgot to say, it's not about 'end of the season' it's about match by match analysis now, of where we are heading. An improving side, getting a few results together ok, continue to ship goals and no improvement in wins, that can only go on so long before we become relegation material. The rot has to stop even if it means BR is gone before the end of the season.

Didn't that happen with Rafa tho' mate; weren't people calling for his head in somewhat similar fashion? What was your take on it then Mick?

Cast your mind back - were you sane or insane? 
Spoken like a man with past experience. 

Without wanting to get into a Rafa discussion on the Brendan thread mate, they are very fair questions and deserve an answer. If it's Ok I'll answer them in reverse order as it kind of fits together better.

I AM talking as a man of experience as far as wanting a manager out, that much is obvious. I had come to the conclusion Rafa had taken us as far as he was likely to BEFORE he took us to second in the league (so I guess you could say that therefore I was wrong, but anyway). I was convinced then (as I am now to be honest) however that the second place in the league was more of a blip than an indication we were about to embark on greatness. It was in year five of Rafa's tenure after all and our league performances had been patchy at best previously. Also, we hadn't won a trophy for three seasons and to my mind at the time, we were performing at a level which was below what could be sensibly expected given the quality of players at our disposal (it's worth remembering that for all of Rafa's tenure we had a Gerrard who was the equal of any midfielder in World football at the time). We seemed too keen on doing well in the Champions League it seemed to me and not bothered enough about domestic competitions, and I felt Rafa had lost both his golden touch in the transfer market as well as the ability to motivate the players. the rotation was bordering on the ridiculous on occasions in my view, then there was the ownership issues and Rafa's (to my mind) power mad tendencies which were clouding his abilities to do his job properly.

Now all of the above is obviously in my opinion only. We can debate until the cows come home whether or not I was right in my views (well everyone else can, I'm personally not going to go there) but I think this a fair reflection on the way I felt at the time. However, I said on here a few weeks back that in the fullness of time the decision to sack Rafa can only be viewed as an absolute disaster and I stand by that. that's not because he didn't deserve to go (because in my view he did) but because it split the club and the fracture has never healed. Every manager who has come in since then is judged against  bygone era of "we were the number one ranked team in Europe in the highly esteemed FIFA rankings" and other such nonsense. I've even gone as far as saying that if Brendan does go, I hope they bring Rafa back. I don't see we can lose really, either he brings back the "glory days" and we win, or he doesn't but at least we can put to bed any notions of him coming back on his white charger to rescue us once and for all.

I will say however that when I thought it was time for Rafa to go I didn't show anywhere near the same disrespect towards him that many fans do to Brendan. I didn't discuss his goatee, his weight, his wife, his car, his shoes, his teeth or any of that old nonsense. Neither did I go quiet if we won and disappear off the forum if we had a good spell. I didn't blindly criticise all things Rafa, I just thought that on balance he had done his bit and it was time to move on. It's a bit like now really. I don't say Rafa is a bad manager, far from it (he's actually a good manager). He isn't though the messiah, he didn't do very well at Inter Milan, he did do pretty well at Chelsea under the circumstances, and he isn't uprroting trees at Napoli. A decent record at best since he left us, but not the messiah.

You don't sack managers mid season in my view. And I still think we'll make it into the top four (or get very close to making it) which given our injuries and upheaval, won't be a bad effort. If we are still languishing where we are now come the end of the season, THEN you look at it. That's sanity.   

Without wanting to get into a Rafa discussion on the Brendan thread mate, they are very fair questions and deserve an answer. If it's Ok I'll answer them in reverse order as it kind of fits together better.

I AM talking as a man of experience as far as wanting a manager out, that much is obvious. I had come to the conclusion Rafa had taken us as far as he was likely to BEFORE he took us to second in the league (so I guess you could say that therefore I was wrong, but anyway). I was convinced then (as I am now to be honest) however that the second place in the league was more of a blip than an indication we were about to embark on greatness. It was in year five of Rafa's tenure after all and our league performances had been patchy at best previously. Also, we hadn't won a trophy for three seasons and to my mind at the time, we were performing at a level which was below what could be sensibly expected given the quality of players at our disposal (it's worth remembering that for all of Rafa's tenure we had a Gerrard who was the equal of any midfielder in World football at the time). We seemed too keen on doing well in the Champions League it seemed to me and not bothered enough about domestic competitions, and I felt Rafa had lost both his golden touch in the transfer market as well as the ability to motivate the players. the rotation was bordering on the ridiculous on occasions in my view, then there was the ownership issues and Rafa's (to my mind) power mad tendencies which were clouding his abilities to do his job properly.

Now all of the above is obviously in my opinion only. We can debate until the cows come home whether or not I was right in my views (well everyone else can, I'm personally not going to go there) but I think this a fair reflection on the way I felt at the time. However, I said on here a few weeks back that in the fullness of time the decision to sack Rafa can only be viewed as an absolute disaster and I stand by that. that's not because he didn't deserve to go (because in my view he did) but because it split the club and the fracture has never healed. Every manager who has come in since then is judged against  bygone era of "we were the number one ranked team in Europe in the highly esteemed FIFA rankings" and other such nonsense. I've even gone as far as saying that if Brendan does go, I hope they bring Rafa back. I don't see we can lose really, either he brings back the "glory days" and we win, or he doesn't but at least we can put to bed any notions of him coming back on his white charger to rescue us once and for all.

I will say however that when I thought it was time for Rafa to go I didn't show anywhere near the same disrespect towards him that many fans do to Brendan. I didn't discuss his goatee, his weight, his wife, his car, his shoes, his teeth or any of that old nonsense. Neither did I go quiet if we won and disappear off the forum if we had a good spell. I didn't blindly criticise all things Rafa, I just thought that on balance he had done his bit and it was time to move on. It's a bit like now really. I don't say Rafa is a bad manager, far from it (he's actually a good manager). He isn't though the messiah, he didn't do very well at Inter Milan, he did do pretty well at Chelsea under the circumstances, and he isn't uprroting trees at Napoli. A decent record at best since he left us, but not the messiah.

You don't sack managers mid season in my view. And I still think we'll make it into the top four (or get very close to making it) which given our injuries and upheaval, won't be a bad effort. If we are still languishing where we are now come the end of the season, THEN you look at it. That's sanity.   

Great Post Mick.
Dont Agree with all but do agree that Rafa went off the boil.
He was determined to play Gerrard behind Torres and yet in season we did come 2nd they hardly played together due to injuries etc.
A stubborness.


Agreed...
We didnt get personal with Rafa. He was taken to the hearts of all of us and never at any time pretended to be someone that he wasnt.
A man to respect. A man of humility.

As far as the present situation is concerned if I had £40 million target to get to in five months time and and my company was 10 points behind where the firm should be .... I would be seriously considering if the MD was up for it.
Thats my take.

I don't think this MD is up for it. Haven't for a long time.

I would have rung my Recruitment people some time back and have been conducting a few interviews as a minimum.
Short term loss   long term gain.

You change the manager when you feel he has taken you as far as he can. I respect people's opinion enough that I wouldn't call them insane for suggesting such a course of action or trying to put them in a category or sub category, I'd rather treat them with respect as individuals and take their points as they're made. If I disagree with them then fair enough but all this cloak and dagger/messages in the background and clandestine crap that people are inventing in their heads is frankly amusing but boring as it's gone on so long.

With regards Brendan's recent performance I believe he's done enough to warrant more time. Not based on last season, but based on the fact that he is now changing from the stale and dogmatic style we had early on to actually picking players on form and more akin to Brendan's style from last season. Had he continued to play the same way I'd have been happy to jump in the "Brendan Out" camp because I saw no way forward for us like that. It may only be a small sample size of a 3-0 loss to United and a 3-1 win against Bournemouth but that's the Brendan Rodger's Liverpool that had people suggesting he was the right man for the job long term.

Moving on from that though we still have the transfer committee to sort out and BBB puts it perfectly in his post in the Delph thread:

In May I was heartened when I read what Brendan's plans were for the Summer [probably because it echoed what I'd been saying, if I'm being honest].

"I don't want to put a figure on how many but I would rather have one or two absolute top players than seven that might not help us"...

... He continued: "It's about the quality. We can't be going into the Champions League this year with doubts about players. We have to be going in knowing what the players' capacity to play is and their capabilities."

Where or how that went wrong f**k knows [we all have our theories] but wrong it went. If we are to sign anyone in January (which I doubt) all I would ask is that we don't compound previous clusterfucks by making the same mistakes.

Making clusterfuck, after clusterfuck, since we abandoned the DoF model in favour of "prudent", "clever",  "never again waste resources on inflated transfer fees and unrealistic wages", policy and the Committee is insane.

"Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results."

Along with that I still think we need a shake-up in the coaching department. I think we'll continue to be poor defensively and our goal keeping coach should be looked at and most likely changed. The positives are that the sounds coming out seem to suggest changes are happening, I just hope the changes are quick enough and strong enough.

I have a question for those who are of the opinion that "Rodgers deserves at least until the end of the season."

I'm wondering if someone can explain to me what that actually means.  Because it seems to me that it means something like "no matter how good or bad we do this season, Rodgers has earned the right to do whatever he wants with the club at least until the end of this season."

for example, suppose you knew right now that we would finish, say, 15th.  Do you believe that Rodgers "deserves" the freedom to take us down to 15th place? 

because that basically means that no matter what the consequences are for the club, it doesn't matter, because Rodgers has earned the right to inflict anything he wants on us until the end of this season.

and that doesn't really add up.  it's sort like a woman saying "My husband was absolutely amazing towards me in 2014, so he has earned the right to beat me and emotionally abuse me for at least all of 2015.  he's earned it."

Wish you would stop talking so much bollocks Fed , your trying to put your opinions on everyone else on these boards, by suggesting Brendan takes us down to 15th then don't sack him, I think it's fair to say we're struggling to finish top. 4 but your over exaggerating the point,

Yes we've been sh*te all season but there are signs of improvement , small steps and all that, now I see us at the moment as a side low in confidence but I also see us getting better,

Wherever we finish come May I would think by then we'll all have a better idea of what should happen, until then like it or not Brendan needs our total support from the stands, the boardroom, from Boston and of course on these boards, after last season I and  probably most on here thinks he at least deserves the chance to put things right , and with a fully fit squad to choose from,
You or anyone else cannot expect us to have a similar success to last season when you've lost two thirds of your strike force , have to incorporate a new way of playing, introduce new players into a new system, deal with losses of form etc etc,

Brendan has made mistakes he probably will make more, no ones perfect ,

Get off his back and let things happen the way he wants it to , and if things haven't changed or proved come May I think the knives will come out then .


YNWA

Great post from bigmick there.

I have no problem with recognising when a manager has taken us as far  he can. What I feel however is that people do not recognise  that the manager is no longer the key determinant about whether the club succeeds - it is now the owners.

I can guarantee that Man City are going to be in the mix for at least the next few years in the premiership. Whether or not Pellegrini lasts the season is up for debate.

Paul Tomkins has written a fantastic article here which explains the scale of the task we are facing (click on the link to see the relevant graphs). The results are quite clear: the damage was done by Moores and Parry who let the club fall behind our rivals when they were busy monetising their clubs. And still today you have fans moaning about accountants being in charge or complaining about us cutting the wage bill.

Unless you have a sound grasp of what we are trying to do financially I would say you are completely misunderstanding the fundamental determinant of success in elite modern professional sport.

http://tomkinstimes.com/2014/11/why-liverpool-never-win-the-league/
WHY LIVERPOOL NEVER WIN THE LEAGUE
By Paul Tomkins.

One thing people always tell me is that Liverpool ‘won’t win the league with X manager’. Ten years ago I’d have gone along with this, as I still thought it football was all about having the right manager. But over the past decade it has been clear to me that Liverpool won’t win the league with any manager. I’ve written that before, but I’ve never had as much proof as I’ll lay out here. (And I’m always looking for better ways to explain it.)

The fact that Brendan Rodgers came close last season only raised the spectre of a 19th league title, and a 25-year wait. We got excited. But I believe that in this article I offer proof that Liverpool winning the title is far more difficult than when United ended their 26-year wait in 1993, or when Arsene Wenger ruled English football with his great Arsenal side. At the start of every season, no one should ever mention Liverpool winning the title as some kind of obvious possibility, just as no one mentions Nottingham Forest winning a third European Cup (although mainly because they never qualify for it anymore).

I touched upon this last week, but it’s worth making it crystal clear. Until FFP really bites, and until Liverpool have a bigger stadium, then the money the club spends on transfers will never be enough. You cannot blame FSG for living within the club’s means, and even then, they are dangerously close to the 70% mark in terms of wages-to-turnover. Years of neglect, and falling behind rich oligarchs, has left the Reds stranded. When the Premier League began, Liverpool were the richest club. By 2005 they weren’t even half as rich as the richest club (based on squad costs). Now they have the 5th-most expensive squad.

I find it hard to even discuss football with people who don’t know the kind of things contained within this article; the kind of things I’ve been discussing for years now. Do Spurs fans say “we’ll never win the league with this manager”? They could have Pep Guardiola and they still wouldn’t. Do Everton fans still think they stand a remote chance of what Howard Kendall gave them? They could have the ghost of Dixie Dean and they still wouldn’t. Do Aston Villa fans think it’s still 1981?

Liverpool won lots of titles when football was the way it was; and then football changed. As they say, timing is everything.



Now, last season I said there was no way Liverpool could win the league, even when they led the table at halfway, and yet they nearly did. But ultimately the reason I said they wouldn’t was probably behind the failure; i.e. City had a massive squad with great depth, and Liverpool had a smaller squad, with cheaper players, and couldn’t replace key men. Once Jordan Henderson was suspended there was no one close to his level (as it was then) to put in. It could have been Suarez or Sturridge who got injured or suspended in the run-in, and the lack of depth would have been exposed. (Oh, and City had the experience of having been there and done it.) You can talk about bad defending and slips by players, but great attacking got Liverpool into a position that was above expectations.

The fact is, since Roman Abramovich arrived in England – and allowing for one season of investment before it really kicked into gear – only three clubs have stood a chance of winning the title, based on our TPI model. Those three clubs are Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City. Indeed, between 2005 and 2010 there were only two clubs with the wherewithal, and those were Chelsea and United. City became ‘possibilities’ in 2011 according to our TPI model, and guess which three clubs have won all of the titles in the past 10 seasons?

For the purposes of this piece I’ve updated the graph from last week, and added another, to make it apparent how teams win the league. And it’s crystal clear that Liverpool and Arsenal are mere also-rans. At first glance the graphs may seem complicated, but take a moment to let the information sink in. I’ll go on to explain what it all means.



The yellow dots represent the title winners. If you look at Manchester United in 1993, you can see that they had the most expensive £XI (the £XI is the 38-game average cost of the starting line ups, after inflation is applied. All teams are shown in 2014 money.) At this time, teams contained more ‘free’ homegrown players – so even when converted to 2014 money the teams were cheaper – but even though United had the costlier £XI, Liverpool’s squad was more expensive; indeed, the most expensive in the land at the time. (Thanks, Graeme: both Riley for creating TPI with me, and Souness, in irony, for such bad spending.)

The costliest squad will provide the title-winners roughly one-third of the time. The costliest £XI will provide the title-winners half the time. In 1993, compared with Liverpool, United had more of its expenditure in the team, less on the bench (or injured). We call the £XI the “Utilisation”: how much of the spending ended up on the pitch.

However, for the first eleven Premier League seasons the differences in squad and £XI costs were fairly minimal; it was an era when there was no clear financial heavyweight miles ahead of the rest.

When Blackburn – the Man City of that era – won the title in 1995 they also had the costliest £XI, but like United, not the costliest squad. Even so, the cost issues were less marked than they are now; theoretically the richest four clubs, along with Newcastle (who aren’t on the graph) could claim to have a fighting chance. It’s a neat cluster, with teams interchanging ranking positions all the time.

When Arsene Wenger won his first title in 1998, Arsenal also had the costliest £XI. But it was close. Back then, everything was close.

The Title Zone

If you look at the two graphs, there is something I’ll call the Title Zone, shaded in green. Since Arsenal won the title in 2004, no one outside of this zone – either in terms of squad cost or the average paid for the XIs – has won the title. Liverpool got vaguely close to entering the zone in 2012, but at no point before or after were they even close. Even in 2012 they were still a staggering £80m adrift in terms of the average cost of the XI after inflation is applied (£XI). In other words, they were still a third of the money short.

You can see Manchester City building up from 2007 onwards, with real acceleration from 2008, and they only won their first title after two years in the Title Zone. Their squad got a fraction cheaper in that second year, but their £XI actually rose by a decent amount. For whatever reason, they were getting more of their expensive purchases on the pitch.

If you do not have an £XI in the Title Zone, or a squad cost (again, after inflation is applied) in the Title Zone, you won’t win the title. That may sound simple, but that’s how it works. Or at least, how it’s worked for the past 10 seasons, and how it appears to be working again this season.

If you take nothing else away from this piece, then please consider the next two paragraphs.

- No team with an £XI lower than £210m has won the Premier League in over a decade. Liverpool’s current £XI is £138.9m, over £70m short of the minimum. (And indeed, it was £95m short of City’s last season.)

- No team with a squad that cost less than £397m (after inflation) has won the title in over a decade. Liverpool’s current squad cost (Sq£) is £293m, over £100m short of that minimum. (And indeed, was a whopping £140m short of City’s last season.)

Any time I analyse football I do so with these kinds of figures in mind. It doesn’t tell me that Liverpool must give up; it tells me that unless Liverpool can be extraordinarily clever, as well as lucky, then in any given season they are unlikely to beat all three of the clubs in the Title Zone. Think of it like breaking into a high-security bank: you may get past the first security system, if it’s faulty, but your chances of making it past all three diminish with each new challenge.

As Liverpool are working within their budget (as a percentage of turnover), it’s hard to say that spending more is easily done. City, Chelsea and United stocked up on great players for big fees before FFP bit. In fairness, Liverpool tried a version of this – Big Spending Lite – in 2011, but it was lower in scale, and made with an awareness of FFP looming. For all the naivety of David Moores, and the rank dumbness of Gillett and Hicks, the Reds probably never stood a chance of competing anyway. Liverpool missed the boat by not ‘monetising’ at the start of the Premier League (when United pulled away), and then they missed the next boat – or rather, yacht – when it came to billionaire benefactors.

Given that roughly half of all transfers end up not really making an impact – as shown by our TPI work – you can say that the Reds’ four big-money signings of 2011 were, as you’d expect with the law of averages, a 50/50 hit/miss ratio. Carroll was a flop; Suarez a success. Downing was a flop; Henderson a success. Carroll and Downing had gone by the time Suarez and Henderson helped Liverpool in a title challenge. As I noted last week, in terms of instant success, perhaps only one in four big-money signing has an excellent first season, and it works here too. Suarez was extremely good at first, then sublime. Henderson was hesitant at first, and then, last season, a key player.

Equally, Liverpool only got back approximately a third of what they paid for Carroll and Downing. Richer clubs can more easily write off such losses. Under Graeme Souness, Liverpool paid big money (£20-30m fees, TPI), but got precious little back from those investments. Equally, Gérard Houllier bought some good defensive players, but the club recouped very little from sales of those he bought. People sneer at ‘resale value’, but if you buy a house you want to be able to sell it years later; if you lose it for nothing, you can’t afford a new house.

Both Chelsea and City discarded expensive players at quite shocking levels on their way to the top, although in fairness to Chelsea, their buying in the past couple of years has been outstanding. Their wealth has helped them focus on the here-and-now, but also tie-up a load of promising youngsters.

Whenever anyone says Arsene Wenger is now out of touch, and way below his old standards, look back on the graph to his three titles (in reverse order, 2004, 2002 and 1998). Wenger hasn’t necessarily got worse; quite simply, the landscape was set to change, and even began to do so during his last really successful season.

Look at the upward projections in blue before Chelsea’s success, and United, in black, responding to the big spending. Then look at the similar sharp rise at the lighter blue of City in the second half of the last decade; getting ready to attack, like a shark rising to the surface. Indeed, City never quite hit the “expense” heights that Chelsea managed, but their investment was over a shorter period of time (bar that one massive upward swing in squad cost in Abramovich’s first season).

All the data shows that Arsenal and Liverpool are miles adrift from the ‘big three’. Not only is there a chasm between the average cost of the XIs each season (including 2014/15), there’s a chasm between the squad costs, too. None of this is to say that Arsenal should be 8th and Liverpool 12th, of course. That is not good enough. But equally, Liverpool did miraculously well last season, and Arsenal, to date, have managed to hold onto a place in the top four every year, which, according to the model, is about all they can ever hope for. Maybe Wenger could have spent more, and is therefore in some way culpable, but to me the haven’t realistically stood a chance of the title since 2004. They are at least investing in the XI, now that their stadium is reaping greater rewards from ticket revenue, but the gap to close remains large.

Arsenal’s squad costs have risen, to overtake Liverpool’s for the first time since 2006. The exact same rise is true of their £XIs, although they are still just behind Liverpool in that regard (if Ozil was fit he’d tip them ahead, but even having two c£40m players would not push them into the Title Zone).

The evidence in this article shows that the bigger the squad you have, the more you can “put on the pitch”. It is happening in Spain with Barcelona and Real Madrid, whose squads get bigger, and in Germany Jürgen Klopp’s Dortmund have been scavenged by Bayern Munich.

The Premier League ‘rich three’ are so tightly grouped that the title will come from one of them; but it ultimately comes down to whose manager gets the most out of their talented collections, and who has to overcome less bad luck. Is one team bogged down in Europe? Is one team defending the title, which comes with different challenges? Are key players missing? But when it comes to mere standard injury issues they usually have the strength in depth, as shown by the squad cost.

You can beat the odds if one of the big three has a bad season; United stumbled badly in 2013/14. But what are the odds on United, Chelsea and City all having bad seasons at the same time? – and with Arsenal, the other possible challenger, also failing to match Liverpool (when it almost looks a 50-50 coin toss as to who will finish higher, based on wherewithal)? Chelsea had a ‘bad’ season last year and yet finished with 25 wins and 82 points. Prior to the advent of the Title Zone, 82 points would win you the league half the time. The über-squads with world-class managers have raised the bar.

I stated time and again last season that we were seeing a freakish over-performance from Rodgers’ men. When I said that the Reds would not win the title I noted that it would be one of the great achievements if they did. They failed, narrowly, but rather than thinking we need to build on it, push on again, keep up the momentum, etc, the reality was that a fall was fairly inevitable. Teams don’t really buck those odds twice in a row. Again, look how far adrift the Reds were in 2009 in terms of wherewithal, and how close they came. Look at the similar ‘decline’ a season later. It’s almost as if everything goes into one extraordinary push, then collapses in exhaustion.

My feeling is that whatever Liverpool did this summer, they’d still be seen as in some kind of decline. An injury to Sturridge made life harder after the sale of Suarez, and the signings aged between 24-32 haven’t settled immediately into the team. (The investments in a handful of reasonably-priced high-potential 19-22 year-olds makes perfect sense to me.)

Rodgers’ tactics have been called into question, and there are probably some very valid criticisms of his methods (although some of the criticisms I made last season were overridden by an 11-game winning streak). The team is playing very poorly. Right now, Rodgers is not getting the most out of the players at his disposal, and therefore questions need to be asked. (Some of which I cover here.)

But even though it’s easier said than done right now, just two wins would put Liverpool back to the weight they should be punching. The problem is that two more defeats could put them into the relegation zone.

I AM talking as a man of experience as far as wanting a manager out, that much is obvious. I had come to the conclusion Rafa had taken us as far as he was likely to BEFORE he took us to second in the league (so I guess you could say that therefore I was wrong, but anyway). I was convinced then (as I am now to be honest) however that the second place in the league was more of a blip than an indication we were about to embark on greatness.

I appreciate your frankness mate and have lifted this from your post because it cuts to the chase regarding what I was asking.

The thing is (and I'll be honest here); I was wondering how someone, who experienced the very same feelings, under very similar circumstances, could suggest that anyone wanting to sack Brendan now isn't sane and/or has an agenda. I was wondering what you saw in yourself, then, that made you different to some people now.

I thought, given your experience on the matter [wanting a manager sacked after finishing 2nd], that you of all people, would appreciate (if not agree with) the alternative viewpoint; that's all. 

I think the difference probably is mate that I don't advocate sacking Rafa mid season either. In actual fact, if my memory doesn't deceive me I was more than happy for him to be given all of the final season to have an opportunity to put things right.

Well it was nice to see Rodgers get the tactics spot on today, just a shame he has a right bunch of bellends playing for him.

Tell you what, tactically this system has legs. Although the manager won't get any credit for it, he should.

Unlucky Brendan , can't fault you today.

No one can dispute that the mnager has showed courage there. Team under severe pressure and his job on teh line and he has switched to a completely new formation and matched United and Arsenal in terms of performance - even if we haven't got the reslst we wanted.

No doubt the usual suspects will be back with their snidey potshots though.

I've liked the look of this new formation, much more dynamic.

Unfortunately we can play any system we want, until that defence is sorted out, we won't move forward.

Credit where credit is due I don't think Brendan did anything wrong over the course of the 90 minutes. However some work on the training ground would have prevented that first goal. Too many guys standing around and expecting the guy next to him to do something Flamini and Debuchy both had free headers there.

Solid outing from Brendan and the lads but there's definitely room for improvement.