May as well be first...I think we're going to seriously challenge for the title.

The fact we're only playing one game a week while our rivals are all playing in Europe is a big benefit. Roma have had a great start in Serie A and everyone points out they don't have the European hassles that Juventus and Napoli have to deal with.

I'd take getting knocked out of the FA Cup early if it meant one game a week and a strong title challenge until May. 

We're going to challenge for the title!!

You said the same last year Mick, that we'd be challenging for the title up until christmas and you've obviously revised that to the end of the season, fair play on the optimistic front but I don't personally believe it's realistic.

The truth, in my humble opinion, is that our easiest fixture list in living memory, the change in managers at the big clubs and the undoubted form of Suarez / Sturridge have given us a platform of progress to build on but in reality a few people are looking at the league table and getting carried away too early and setting themselves up for disappointment. 

It's been shown that we are in fact 4 points better off, like-for-like, when compared with last season. It's measurable, reliable and provable. The variables that are mentioned in trying to rubbish this claim all exist outside of our club and beyond our control, therefore become irrelevant when discussing our progress. Maths is an exact science and should Man City choose to sell all their players and replace them with stuffed animals, apart from being against F.A. regulations, our points gained or lost against them will still count as either progress, regression or stagnation, all this nonsense about having to wait 38 games, that is the ultimate like-for-like comparison, before we can view progress is simply wrong when looked at from a mathematical stand-point.

Taking that proven fact into account and doing the same for the top 8 sides you actually find some surprising results. Substituting Hull for Reading, Palace for QPR and Cardiff for Wigan the following results are shown (for clarity the only team with any difference with these substitutions is actually City who are 3 points worse off when only including the promoted / relegated teams):

Man Utd

-8 points

Man City

+3 points

Chelsea

-5 points

Arsenal

-1 point

Spurs

-2 points

Everton

+1 point

Liverpool

+4 points

Southampton

+14 points

If we simply took those points and adjusted last seasons league table to show where we currently stand in terms of progress and how much work is needed until the end of the season it looks something like this:


Man Utd

81

Man City

81

Arsenal

72

Chelsea

70

Spurs

70

Liverpool

65

Everton

64

Southampton

55

Or if you wanted to extrapolate the data across the 38 games and assuming current progress shown will remain constant the final league table would look like this:

Southampton

89

City

88

Liverpool

74

Arsenal

70

Everton

66

Spurs

65

United

61

Chelsea

58

Unfortunately for us I don't think Chelsea or United will continue on quite the slumps they have been and for Saints to maintain a 1.3 points per game increase, most would accept is extremely unlikely.

What the tables above do highlight though is that in neither scenario are we actually likely to challenge for the title, the most probable winners, judging on the data so far is City and if I were a betting man these results would be enough for me to think the 11/4 on offer is actually very good value indeed.

Being totally focused on Liverpool, as we should be, we still have 16 points to make up on both United and City, 7 points on Arsenal and 5 points on both Spurs and Chelsea. With Everton only 1 point behind and Southampton breathing down everyone's necks, to suggest we're going to be challenging for the title at this stage is optimism I can't share and the facts so far don't support it. However staring at the league table, forgetting all relevant facts and dreaming of days gone by might just be enough to trick the mind into believing the title is within our reach. Waking up and watching it drift away will be a difficult morning for those who are willing to dream that dream I'm afraid.

The fact we're only playing one game a week while our rivals are all playing in Europe is a big benefit. Roma have had a great start in Serie A and everyone points out they don't have the European hassles that Juventus and Napoli have to deal with.

I'd take getting knocked out of the FA Cup early if it meant one game a week and a strong title challenge until May. 

steady on, we're already out League Cup.  We need to do the best we can in FA cup.  I agree about Europe.  Our players will handle fitness better.

Walcott isn't that great,  Sturridge and Suarez are miles ahead of podolski and geroud. Gerrard and Coutinho over any of Arsenal's midfield. Ozil hasn't done an awful lot to justify 40m. Arsenal's defence and keeper is nothing special. I don't see any superior arsenal. They were better at the Emirates because we set our team out with 3 at the back. At Anfield with our current formation I don't see the same happening.

Walcott was in excellent form last season and Ozil is world class. If you can't see that you must not watch them play. They have massive depth in midfield it blows ours out of the water! That's the only area they are dominant in but it's a key area. They create so much from so many different players in midfield is supplements their lack of striker options. They will be a truly frightening prospect if and when they sign a player of Suarez's caliber.

It's measurable, reliable and provable. The variables that are mentioned in trying to rubbish this claim all exist outside of our club and beyond our control, therefore become irrelevant when discussing our progress. Maths is an exact science

See, Luke, again I think you make some good points, but you're stretching things badly. Math is an exact science, football isn't.
Things outside our control are not irrelevant to our progress. This approach is measurable, yes; but it's not reliable, and it proves nothing. It's pseudo-scientific and makes a mockery of statistical analysis - your extrapolations are an interesting exercise, and I for one enjoyed the read, but they have very little value in predicting anything for the future.

Even if we accept that taking other variables as irrelevant might be alright from a mathematical stand point, I'll still have to disagree, for football analysis does not consist of mathematics alone. And you know that when you talk about easy fixture lists and changes in managers.

The like-for-like comparison is an analytical tool that has suddenly become the only tool in this forum, solely because it serves a purpose for those who want to discredit what others see as improvement. Can't ever remember it being used regularly like that before.

That said, I also don't think we'll be challenging for the title. I hope we do, but I think we're short in quality for this. This comes from my personal assessment of the team, not fantasy "proof".

Still, winning leagues isn't about being better than yourself one year ago, it's about being better than your competitors as well. And for the most part, we've been doing both. So far, so good.

Some interesting answers and I expected no less. Diego makes good points in his latest post, and I certainly and fairly obviously haven't made my predictions based on any "mathematical table" or "like for like" comparisons. Equally, I'm not sure I buy into S@ints point about match-up games against big teams being more important as now there's more of them. Basically we're all guessing here and none of us know for sure how this thing is going to evolve, but here's a couple of points.

1. The league is going to be won with less points this season than is normal, I would think that is almost certain.
2. The relegation places are going to be hotly contested, with only Palace looking certs for the drop (Fulham will sack Jol and pick up). As such, by Christmas half of the league is going to be worried about the drop. 
3. "Easy" games are going to see mediocre teams who are in mid table playing the big clubs and fighting for their lives in case they get sucked into a scrap, because of this there will continue to be shocks throughout the season.
4. The ability to put these teams away is more important than ever. the best way of putting sh!te teams away is to score heavily. Perversely, the best way of putting good teams away is to concede little. We are better suited to do the former, but we are capable of the latter. We will though score against all teams with Suarez in the team. The idea of us completing a match and barely having a shot is close to an impossibility with him in the team. Because of this IMHO we will suffer less shock results than most.
5. Even games where we have dropped points this season now don't look so bad with the benefit of hindsight. Southampton are clearly a better team than anyone realised, Arsenal are obviously a good side, while even Newcastle Away now doesn't look like such a walk in the park. They rolled over Chelsea and Spurs in their next two. Equally, beating WBA at Home 4-1 now looks like a decent result as well. My point? we are beating teams which others are sometimes failing against. Not all of our games have been easy. Even winning at Sunderland will look like a better result in a few weeks time than it does now.


So I judge it as I've called it. I think we can and will improve a fair bit, and I think we will go very close to winning it. If we don't, who will? I absolutely guarantee you whoever you say, we could all pick holes in their title aspirations too.   

I think the problem lies with how most people view the season. If we had a very hard start to the season playing most of the top sides and were down in 9th or 10th place would people still be talking about us being title contenders? The fact is we had a reasonably easy start to the season, which is great in my opinion, it gives the team confidence, allows Brenden to get a view on what is best team is without suffering too many setbacks, and allows us to dream of what might be.

Whether once we hit the hard games we also hit the wall and tumble down the table like Jack down his hill, will not be determined by how we performed last season.... it does however allow for a little reality to creep in, allows us to view our results and position in relation to the standard of opposition we have faced and also the difficulty of the task yet to come.

As all the share traders say "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results", before going on to explain just how well they have done in the past.
   

I think the problem lies with how most people view the season. If we had a very hard start to the season playing most of the top sides and were down in 9th or 10th place would people still be talking about us being title contenders? The fact is we had a reasonably easy start to the season, which is great in my opinion, it gives the team confidence, allows Brenden to get a view on what is best team is without suffering too many setbacks, and allows us to dream of what might be.

Whether once we hit the hard games we also hit the wall and tumble down the table like Jack down his hill, will not be determined by how we performed last season.... it does however allow for a little reality to creep in, allows us to view our results and position in relation to the standard of opposition we have faced and also the difficulty of the task yet to come.

As all the share traders say "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results", before going on to explain just how well they have done in the past.
   

Haha they do n'all 

Cant see it myself. We just wont have the squad for it unless we add at least 4 players in Jan and sell none.

Games will come thick and fast from December into Jan with the cup etc . Any injuries to our front 3 will hurt us more then any other side going for it.

If we add a bit of quality then maybe. But I think we will break top 4 anyway

Our position last season playing games against the bottom half of the table..... 4th does  reflect how important the games against the harder sides are.... to me at least

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2012-2013/versus-bottom-half/full

The truth, in my humble opinion, is that our easiest fixture list in living memory, the change in managers at the big clubs and the undoubted form of Suarez / Sturridge have given us a platform of progress to build on but in reality a few people are looking at the league table and getting carried away too early and setting themselves up for disappointment. 

It's been shown that we are in fact 4 points better off, like-for-like, when compared with last season. It's measurable, reliable and provable.

The fixture list has been kind to us Luke, of that there is no doubt, but where I differ from yourself and some others is that I see that 'kind' run of games setting us in good stead and giving the confidence and belief that we can, at the very least, challenge for the title for most of the season.

I know there has been a debate on here about the relevance of judging like for like and while I 100% agree that it is the best way to judge progress on last season, it would be foolish to dismiss them, I also am a big believer on momentum and how it can foster belief in a squad of players.

Everton   A   
Hull           A   
Norwich   H   
West Ham   H   
Tottenham   A   
Cardiff        H

That is our next 6 fixtures which brings us up to Boxing Day and I can realistically see 14 points from 18 there and will leave us in and aorund 1st place before the big games at Christmas.

If we are there or thereabouts I think it will only strengthen the belief in the squad and if anything may prove that even losing those 'big games' will not have the effect is has done in the past and we will kick on from them and pick up more points in the lesser games in the new year.

I believe we can win the league this season and don't want to rule it out until we have seen the next run of games played out as then we will have a real feeling of where we are this season.

See, Luke, again I think you make some good points, but you're stretching things badly. Math is an exact science, football isn't.
Things outside our control are not irrelevant to our progress. This approach is measurable, yes; but it's not reliable, and it proves nothing. It's pseudo-scientific and makes a mockery of statistical analysis - your extrapolations are an interesting exercise, and I for one enjoyed the read, but they have very little value in predicting anything for the future.

Even if we accept that taking other variables as irrelevant might be alright from a mathematical stand point, I'll still have to disagree, for football analysis does not consist of mathematics alone. And you know that when you talk about easy fixture lists and changes in managers.

The like-for-like comparison is an analytical tool that has suddenly become the only tool in this forum, solely because it serves a purpose for those who want to discredit what others see as improvement. Can't ever remember it being used regularly like that before.

That said, I also don't think we'll be challenging for the title. I hope we do, but I think we're short in quality for this. This comes from my personal assessment of the team, not fantasy "proof".

Still, winning leagues isn't about being better than yourself one year ago, it's about being better than your competitors as well. And for the most part, we've been doing both. So far, so good.

That's why the words "from a mathematical stand-point" is in my post Diego and was exactly my point.

There is a difference between measuring progress made in existing results (like-for-like), which I have done quite clearly and attempting to express the difficulty or ease by which you can progress from this point forward and why I treated the extrapolation with extreme scepticism, almost dismissing it out of hand and offered my opinion rather than proof. In no way did I suggest this was "proof" that we can not win the league, I did suggest this was "proof" that we are still 16 points behind United etc etc in relative terms and therefore fantasy that we are currently likely to challenge for the title despite our lofty league position.

The extraneous variables that keep being suggested though will naturally balance themselves when we only look at our results (existing) and therefore the variables themselves become irrelevant in this discussion (because both past and present results have occurred and therefore all variables have had their effect). This is because we exist in the same space and we are measuring our progress relative to only teams in this league based upon events that have already occurred.

It's both interesting and strange that these concepts seem to drift amongst each other but are actually differentiable. It seems the crux of the matter is always the word "progress" but when one progress is demonstrated over an 11 game sample and is proven the other is potential progress and that seems to cause all the confusion. So I suppose the easiest way I can put it is:

Can we win the league? Yes!
Are we more likely to win the league than last year? Yes!
Will we win the league? Not in my opinion based on the facts at hand.

Wow great to see all the views of the mathematicians of how stats prove we cannot win the league!
Arsenal beat us that's true but I would argue we had as many if not more clear chances to score in that game and as has been discussed BR probably cocked up on team selection, wait and see when we have them at Anfield.
Somebody has to win it why not us, considering we are probably only just getting into gear with all our best players back we can play better.

Can we win the league? Yes!
Are we more likely to win the league than last year? Yes!
Will we win the league? Not in my opinion based on the facts at hand.

You can't really argue with this.

It really is about your own personal opinion on if we will definitely win it and I doubt many can say 100% that we will win the league this season.

Like you I think there is no real reason why not but saying we definitely will is impossible.

The only facts that matter are that we are 2nd and in the mix to challenge.

Obviously everyone on here WANTS us to challenge, just like everyone on here WANTS us to win it. Given that, I'm not going to criticise anyone who says "I'd love it too but I don't think it's likely", I totally get it. There are plenty of reasons you can find to indicate that we won't do it, but IMHO there are similar reasons for everyone in the league.

Someone will win it though, and that team will need to get a bit of a bandwagon and some momentum rolling forward. I never did think this particular bandwagon would be easy to get under way, but I think if we get a result at Everton (particularly if we win) then I won't be on me own trying to get the wheels out from the rut marks into which they've settled over the years. There'll be more reds coming over and we'll get this thing moving, from there belief is a wonderful thing. One things certain, if we do get within a sniff of a chance our supporters WILL carry us over the line in a few games, that much IS a certainty. 

Our position last season playing games against the bottom half of the table..... 4th does  reflect how important the games against the harder sides are.... to me at least

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2012-2013/versus-bottom-half/full

I think this is the stat that we need to work on more than anything:

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2012-2013/defence/full

If you look at our goals conceded,
We had the 2nd highest clean sheets,
but often when we did concede we went on to concede
more than one. Maybe that's why we put a priority on defenders,
to put some steel in defence.

I think most of it depends on how we do against the teams around us who will end up challenging. So far we have lost to Arsenal and beat United.

I no longer doubt our ability to beat the teams we should, but I'm not convinced we have the blueprint to beat the likes of United, Arsenal, City, Spurs, Chelsea all that often.

I think it's still a little early to talk about title challenge. Right now, I would say we will really challenge for a Champions League spot. In January, we'll see where we are and then talk about title challenge.

Anyway, with Lucas in the team we have no hope 

You sticking a few bob on the Reds then Mick? Liking the positivity, and it's deffo not out of the question, and everyone on here would die to see it happen.

You mentioned keys players. Imo, it comes mainly down to one - Suarez. He is the best player/striker in the league, no question. Can he keep up his current form, not get injured, keep slotting in goals? If he can, who knows were we can end up. Continue putting away the 'lower' teams comfortably, and really contend with the top6 or so. If he gets injured or suspended though, that is a lot of goals we'll be short and games get much tighter - we're back looking through the gaps in the fingers in the last 10 mins, wondering how we squandered that shitload of chances, and wearing down the fingernails (which actually have grown recently!).

Regarding the Shittys/Utds/Chavs, whatever about their form now, they DO have quality squads - and importantly they 'know how to win' - they've that mentality, or confidence, that having won it (PL) recently brings. I'd put a lot of store in that. Winning is a habit - but like any habit, you need to start, for to become a habit. So that BELIEF - this is something BR needs to instill in the players, that mental strength, to REALLY believe they can make it over that glorious line.

One advantage we also have is not being in the CL/fizzy euro   Yep, an advantage! (don't tell Luis) I thought the Arse looked tired against Utd, physically and mentally. Going to Dortmund must have taken a bite out of them. And I reckon in general, through the season, the teams in the CL will drop points after European nights. And rest players in the PL if they continue to make progress in those competitions. In theory, we 'should' be able to make that count.

The games against the top sides are important - but I think it's over emphasised. You get the same 3 points for beating Chavs as you do for beating Norwich. We keep putting away the middle/lower tier like we are now, we're in with a huge chance. The other top teams surprising we've seen em drop a fair few points unexpectedly, and if they keep that up, excellent.

It is great to be confident - and we should be. But I reckon BR will be trying to keep the lad's feet firmly on the ground, noses to the wheel, not get complacent. Game at a time. They're all cliches but that HAS to be the way BR approaches it, and comes down hard on anyone who's starting to get carried away.
So I'm going to tow that line - we're doing great, but we've won jack yet. A good start won't console me at the end of the season if we finish 7th.

Then you never know, we might end up as the 'top top top top top' team at the end of the seaon

Good on yer Mick .

Mine's a light and bitter.

I think we will be challenging when I see us going to Emirates, The Toilet, Etihad and the Bridge with great confidence. We don't have that yet. We need to challenge for top four this year. That is achievable given Utd, Chelski, City and Tottenhams form. I expect Chelsea, Utd and City to challenge.