Clusters of 5.

I like many, like to break the league up into clusters of 5 games. In the past 2 points per game or 10 from 15 and you were pretty much guaranteed CL. I think for safety sake this year we will need 11 from 15 to be sure of CL as the points from last few year suggest 76 may not be enough to guarantee 4th anymore - Arsenal 79. 2.4 points per game or 12 out of 15 points and you are pretty much guaranteed to be Champions.

Block 2 is easily our handiest block of 5. I have been conservative with a lot of my estimations so here’s hoping we can improve on the 3rd position. But with Chelsea and City looking so strong, I would take 3rd today.

I will update the spreadsheet when every block of 5 is completed to see how we are faring.




        09    10     11     12     13     14   Avg   Reqd PPG   Guarentee
1st   90   86   80   89   89   86   87       2.3      90
2nd   86   85   71   89   78   84   82       2.2      86
3rd    83   75   71   70   75   82   76       2.0      84
4th   72   70   68   69   73   79   72       1.9      80
5th   63   67   62   65   72   72   67       1.8      73





YNWA.

By my reckoning, if we aimed for 2.4 points per game, we would amass 91.2 from a possible 114. That means we could drop 23 points and still top 90. Three we dropped to city, so we can still afford to lose 5 and draw 5.
That sounds very do able to me. I know its tough, and 90 hasn't been topped very often but to say we can still lose 5 and draw 5 sounds like a stroll in the park.
How can it sound that easy, when i know for sure it aint ?

Almost every interview with Rodgers last season he alluded to the block of 5.  His target last season was 10 points from 5 games.  We managed to accelerate from it towards the end of last season to become title chasers not just top 4 chasers.

It's a reasonable number of games to overcome some difficult spells.  No matter how difficult a set of games it is a short enough number of games to set a realistic target - allowing for a rather clumsy 2 mistakes out of 5. 

Be fascinating to see if he has nudged it up a point or two this season.

Almost every interview with Rodgers last season he alluded to the block of 5.  His target last season was 10 points from 5 games.  We managed to accelerate from it towards the end of last season to become title chasers not just top 4 chasers.

It's a reasonable number of games to overcome some difficult spells.  No matter how difficult a set of games it is a short enough number of games to set a realistic target - allowing for a rather clumsy 2 mistakes out of 5. 

Be fascinating to see if he has nudged it up a point or two this season.

Should be looking to bump it up to 12 points from 5 games now.
There was a point at the end of the season where we had two consecutive blocks of 15 points.

Prior to last season I worked it out that 2.2 would win you the league

1.89 would get you top 4.

After last season that went out of the window.  Everton 'traditionally' had enough points for 4th and us for the league.

The aim now surely has to be 11-13 points from 5 games

The aim now surely has to be 11-13 points from 5 games

So 12 then.
Glad we're on the same page.

Villa loss means max we can get from this lot of 5 is 9 points. On a plus point, barring Everton the next lot of 5 are all winnable, so 12 points from that block would put us back in contention for a top 4. 13-15 points being a great block.

Looks like 7 is the avg amount of losses for a 4th place team. Lets make sure we dont lose anymore now for a good amount of games.

Also to try and put some good slant on things - he are still 2 points better of from corresponding fixtures of last season.

1st 5 have been a shocker. 1.2PPG. No where near CL form.

The next 5 are our easiest 5 of the season. Need some good form and if we can get 13 points or so from them then we are back on track. 1 draw 4 wins is a min target and should be well achievable. Why am I so worried so? 

Everton    H
West Brom   H
QPR   A
Hull   H
Newcastle   A

1st 5 have been a shocker. 1.2PPG. No where near CL form.

The next 5 are our easiest 5 of the season. Need some good form and if we can get 13 points or so from them then we are back on track. 1 draw 4 wins is a min target and should be well achievable. Why am I so worried so? 

Everton    H
West Brom   H
QPR   A
Hull   H
Newcastle   A

We'll win all 5 of them

We'll win all 5 of them

As long as the players believe they can, we can. That fear factor teams had against us last season, wont be long returning when we smash a few past a few teams.

Heres hoping.

The next 5 are our easiest 5 of the season. Need some good form and if we can get 13 points or so from them then we are back on track. 1 draw 4 wins is a min target and should be well achievable.

In total agreement.  12-13 points would probably banish a lot of concerns.  A shame Everton is the first game in the section.  If it all goes tits up on Saturday then we'll have to try and remember this thread!!

More like clusterfucks of 5 considering the way we're playing.

Pull your fingers out lads, hopefully Allen returns so he can bring SOME midfield presence, because Gerrard and Lucas aren't giving any this year.

If he is back against Everton, I think we'll win - if not... I fear the worst.

More like clusterfucks of 5 considering the way we're playing.

Pull your fingers out lads, hopefully Allen returns so he can bring SOME midfield presence, because Gerrard and Lucas aren't giving any this year.

If he is back against Everton, I think we'll win - if not... I fear the worst.

Jesus imagine Gerrard and Lucas started in the Derby. FACK NO!

Sturridge will be back as will Allen. Sturridge and Balo will murder that bitter lot.

Last season 10 points from our first 5 games
This season 6 points from our first 5 games

Similar set of fixtures to last season imo. Stoke, Villa, Man u, Swansea, Southampton

Always remembering that Suarez was also unavailable for our first 5 games last season, we don't seem to have done nearly as well this time around. 

Last season we were 2nd after five games .... this season 11th.

Last season 10 points from our first 5 games
This season 6 points from our first 5 games

Similar set of fixtures to last season imo. Stoke, Villa, Man u, Swansea, Southampton

Always remembering that Suarez was also unavailable for our first 5 games last season, we don't seem to have done nearly as well this time around. 

Last season we were 2nd after five games .... this season 11th.

We were actually 5th - joint second. Grasping I know. If we win all the next 5 we will be only 2 points off our 10 game total last year. Beat Everton and gather some momentum and its doable. Would still be 3 to 5 points on the average CL form for 10 games played.

Really need to play the next few clusters with title winning form to make up for this clusterfuck.

Sturridge will be back as will Allen.

Allen's out for a few more weeks mate.

We won like 11 games in a row last season didn't (or was it more than that?), there is no reason why we can't do it again and I'm sure then a lot of people will forget about this start so far.

Ye a run of 11 would be amazing.

We need to spank our neighbors really hard to grow on confidence and take it from there.

I'm not sure the first set of five is as bad as it first looks, simply because the results of everyone bar Chelsea have been all over the place as well. If you'd told me, given that we had Away games at Spurs, Man City and West Ham in our first five matches, that we'd be 3 points behind Arsenal, 2 behind Man City, 1 behind Spurs and 1 ahead of both Man Utd and Everton I wouldn't have been overly disappointed. I'd probably have thought we'd have had to achieved 9 points or so rather than six in order to be there, but it is what it is. Perhaps it's the World Cup aftermath or something which has stirred things up, but despite playing sh!te we are right in the mix with everyone bar Chelsea.

When you further dig into the fixtures other teams have had, there is only Man City who could lay a claim to having had a run of games anywhere near so hard as ours. The Mancs in particular must be absolutely smarting, and they have huge amounts of ground to make up. Not on Chelsea as that bird has flown for them and everyone else bar Man City in my view, but on the rest of us who are looking to cement Champions League qualification.   

Just to put into perspective how our fixtures have fallen, all five of the teams we've played so far currently sit in the half of the league (Spurs are lowest at 9th). Hopefully we'll start playing well as the easier games come.

Just to put into perspective how our fixtures have fallen, all five of the teams we've played so far currently sit in the half of the league (Spurs are lowest at 9th). Hopefully we'll start playing well as the easier games come.

I fully expect us to do better against the "top 8" teams as they will come at us and we will bury them. Teams that go backs to wall or slow down the play, they have us nailed. Need plan B, C and D to beat those feckers from now on.