LFC League Season Analysis - 2015/16

We've had similar threads like this before and it might be interesting to do it again this season.

In the past we have tended to use two points targets based on historical finishing totals of the teams in 4th and 5th place.

They were 87 points for a likely title win and 68 points as a target for 4th place.

Factoring in the last few seasons we will keep the title target points the same, but increase the target for 4th place.

In fact last season Chelsea won the title with the exact number of wins, draws and defeats that we have always used in our prediction method.

The following information depicts the 'easiest route' to achieve the points target.  Fixtures illustrated relate of course to Liverpool.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Man U).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea, Stoke). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (70 points)

Requirements:
Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 (Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (Chelsea, City)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Swansea, Stoke, Palace, Everton, West Ham). Defeated at the hardest 6. (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, United, Spurs, Southampton)

P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

Liverpool FC

Title Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge.

Top Four Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.


Other clubs (as of 19th August 2015)

Chelsea

Title Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Draw (0pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: 0 points. On course for top four.

Arsenal

Title Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: -1 points. Below top four challenge.

Man City

Title Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Defeat Actual Win (+3pts)

Overall: +3 points. On course for top four.

Man Utd

Title Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.

Spurs

Title Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Draw Actual Defeat (-1pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for top four.


As it stands

Title challenge

Liverpool +2
Man City +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -3
Spurs -3

Top four challenge

Man City +3
Liverpool +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1
Spurs -2

Upcoming fixtures

Targeting the title

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City WIN v Everton (A)
Arsenal WIN v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

Targeting top four

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City DRAW v Everton (A)
Arsenal DRAW v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

In summary, with regards to the five teams listed - Liverpool have the most to gain this coming weekend.

Great work as always JD.

Upcoming fixtures

Targeting the title

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City WIN v Everton (A)
Arsenal WIN v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

Targeting top four

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City DRAW v Everton (A)
Arsenal DRAW v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

In summary, with regards to the five teams listed - Liverpool have the most to gain this coming weekend.

Interesting perspective alright.

One thing not sure it accounts for is form, like a weighting or some such.
For example, playing Leicester now might be more difficult than playing them in 4 weeks time.
Or playing Chavs now might be more favourable than playing them in 4 weeks time, when Terry and Ivanovic have been replaced etc

Still, will have to check back in here to see how we are going against the template.  Doing OK so far ...

Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea, Stoke). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

To be honest mate, I'd have Everton in the bracket of draws probably ahead of all those. Their squad may not quite be as good as those you've listed but it's the Derby and unquestionably one of our hardest games of any season going to Goodison.

To be honest mate, I'd have Everton in the bracket of draws probably ahead of all those. Their squad may not quite be as good as those you've listed but it's the Derby and unquestionably one of our hardest games of any season going to Goodison.

Very good point. Ahead of Swansea I'd say but I'm guessing it's based on league positions last season?

To be honest mate, I'd have Everton in the bracket of draws probably ahead of all those.

Well they will have to work a little harder this season and finish higher in the league then.

None of this means diddley squat without a team that believes it will win.  Positivity. Go out and grab the win.
Next game - Arsenal away - go at them, get in behind, use pace, use width, use pressing, and we'll have a good chance of getting a result.  West Ham did it.  Positive, energetic football.  They will expect us to sit tight and absorb pressure, lets hit them hard and fast. 
Anything after that we take one game at a time.  It's the only way.
We need to turn traditional away tactics on their head and do a smash and grab on the 'top four' in these early away games.  Its the only way. Be positive - we are Liverpool!

3 points more than this time last season, 5 points more against the same opposition, with the usual caveat of swapping the promoted and relegated teams.

1 game at a time folks. try and win every game, if not then nick a draw, we will be there or there abouts.

Week 3 Update😄

Title Target

Man Utd [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Draw (-2pts)
Chelsea [Win v West Brom] Actual = Win (0)
Man City [Win v Everton] Actual = Win (0)
Arsenal [Win v Liverpool] Actual = Draw (-2)
Liverpool [Lose v Arsenal] Actual = Draw (+1)
Spurs [Win v Leicester] Actual = Draw (-2)

Top Four Target

Man Utd [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Draw (-2pts)
Chelsea [Win v West Brom] Actual = Win (0)
Man City [Draw v Everton] Actual = Win (+2)
Arsenal [Draw v Liverpool] Actual = Draw (0)
Liverpool [Lose v Arsenal] Actual = Draw (+1pts)
Spurs [Win v Leicester] Actual = Draw (-2)

As it stands (after week 3)

Title challenge

Liverpool +3
Man City +2
Man Utd 0
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -5
Spurs -5

Top four challenge

Man City +5
Liverpool +3
Man Utd 0
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1
Spurs -4





Upcoming Fixtures

Arsenal v Newcastle (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Palace (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v West Ham (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Watford (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Swansea (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Everton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Man Utd with the hardest fixture on paper and the most to gain this weekend.

1 point up on this time last year, 6 points up on versus the same teams.

1 point up on this time last year, 6 points up on versus the same teams.

the 6 points bit is the best & we lost away to stoke and arsenal last season a combined score of 10-2 loss. ffs.

we have turned that around big style.

Bad weekends for Liverpool and Chelsea, Spurs drift continues, Man City march on.

Week 4 Update

Arsenal v Newcastle (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Palace (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v West Ham (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Watford (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Swansea (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Everton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Title Target

Arsenal [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Win (0)
Chelsea [Win v Palace] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Liverpool [Win v West Ham] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Man City [Win v Watford] Actual = Won (0)
Man Utd [Draw v Swansea] Actual = Lost (-1)
Spurs [Win v Everton] Actual = Draw (-2)


Top Four Target

Arsenal [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Win (0)
Chelsea [Win v Palace] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Liverpool [Win v West Ham] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Man City [Win v Watford] Actual = Won (0)
Man Utd [Draw v Swansea] Actual = Lost (-1)
Spurs [Win v Everton] Actual = Draw (-2)

As it stands (after week 4)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Liverpool 0
Man Utd -1
Chelsea -5
Arsenal -5
Spurs -7

Top four challenge

Man City +5
Liverpool 0
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -1
Chelsea -3
Spurs -6





Upcoming Fixtures

Chelsea v Everton (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Stoke (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Palace (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Liverpool (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Man Utd (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Spurs v Sunderland (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Liverpool with much to gain in the next league fixture.

A point more than this time last season, 3 points more against same opposition.

A point more than this time last season, 3 points more against same opposition.

And compared to the relatively more ambitious benchmark of the 13-14 season

3 points less after 4 games, 2 points less against same opposition.

In the unemotional world of stats, losing an away game at the 4th best side in the league isn't the end of the world - even though for many of us the performance was. Oh and Chelsea are stinking it up.

Week 5 Update

Title Target

Chelsea WIN v Everton (A) (Actual = Defeat) -3pts
Arsenal WIN v Stoke (H) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man City WIN v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd WIN v Liverpool (H) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Liverpool DRAW v Man Utd (A) (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Spurs WIN v Sunderland (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts

Top Four Target

Chelsea DRAW v Everton (A) (Actual = Defeat) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Stoke (H) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man City DRAW v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 2pts
Man Utd DRAW v Liverpool (H) (Actual = Win) 2pts
Liverpool LOSE v Man Utd (A) (Actual = Lost) 0pts
Spurs WIN v Sunderland (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts

As it stands (after week 5)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Liverpool -1
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -5
Spurs -7
Chelsea -8

Top four challenge

Man City +7
Man Utd 1
Liverpool 0
Arsenal -1
Chelsea -4
Spurs -6





Upcoming Fixtures

Liverpool have the only 'banker' out of the teams next week and thus the most to lose.

Chelsea v Arsenal (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Arsenal v Chelsea (A) - Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v West Ham (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Man Utd v Southampton (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Norwich (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v Palace (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW

No doubt about it.  Last weekend was a bad weekend for Liverpool and a good weekend for 4 of the teams.  Arsenal emerge unscathed after an expected result.

Week 6 Update

Title Target

Chelsea DRAW v Arsenal (H) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Arsenal LOSE v Chelsea(A) (Actual = Lose) 0pts
Man City WIN v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd DRAW v Southampton (A) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Liverpool WIN v Norwich(H) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs WIN v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts

Top Four Target

Chelsea LOSE v Arsenal (H) (Actual = Win) +3pts
Arsenal LOSE v Chelsea(A) (Actual = Lose) 0pts
Man City DRAW v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man Utd LOSE v Southampton (A) (Actual = Win) +3pts
Liverpool WIN v Norwich(H) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs DRAW v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) +2pts

As it stands (after week 6)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Man Utd +1
Liverpool -3
Arsenal -5
Spurs -7
Chelsea -6

Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd 4
Arsenal -1
Chelsea -1
Liverpool -2
Spurs -4






Upcoming Fixtures

Spurs and Man City have the opportunity to improve on expected result.  Potential slip ups for the other four sides.

Spurs v Man City (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v Spurs (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Arsenal v Leicester (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v Villa (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Newcastle (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Sunderland (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Predicted point ranges after week 6 based on above data

Man City 79 - 91 pts
Man Utd 74 - 90 pts
Liverpool 68 - 84 pts
Arsenal 69 - 82 pts
Chelsea 69 - 81 pts
Spurs 66 - 80 pts

Averages and ranking

1. Man City 85 pts
2. Man Utd 82 pts
3. Liverpool 76 pts
4. Arsenal 75.5 pts
5. Chelsea 75 pts
6. Spurs 73 pts

Predicted point ranges after week 6 based on above data

Man City 79 - 91 pts
Man Utd 74 - 90 pts
Liverpool 68 - 84 pts
Arsenal 69 - 82 pts
Chelsea 69 - 81 pts
Spurs 66 - 80 pts

Averages and ranking

1. Man City 85 pts
2. Man Utd 82 pts
3. Liverpool 76 pts
4. Arsenal 75.5 pts
5. Chelsea 75 pts
6. Spurs 73 pts

I just don't see how in the world we could expect to finish 3rd the way we look right now.

I just don't see how in the world we could expect to finish 3rd the way we look right now.

Stats and damn lies mate.

I just don't see how in the world we could expect to finish 3rd the way we look right now.

Shhhh we are using these stats to attract Ancelotti .... just hope we don't send him the league table by mistake.

Seriously I like this thread as it tends to give a more optimistic and balanced view.

Double update - Arsenal and Spurs with the best results of the past two weeks - Chelsea and Liverpool dropping points.

Week 7 and 8 Update

Title Target

Spurs DRAW v Man City (H)  (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man City DRAW v Spurs (A)  (Actual = Lose) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Leicester (A) (Actual = Win) 0
Liverpool WIN v Villa (H)  (Actual = Win) 0
Chelsea WIN v Newcastle (A) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Man Utd WIN v Sunderland (H) (Actual = Win) 0

Chelsea WIN v Southampton (H) (Actual = Lose) -3pts
Man City WIN v Newcastle (H) (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs DRAW v Swansea (A) (Actual = Draw) 0
Arsenal DRAW v Man Utd (H) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man Utd LOSE v Arsenal (A) (Actual = Lose) 0
Liverpool WIN v Everton (A) (Actual = Draw) -2pts

Top Four Target

Spurs LOSE v Man City (H) (Actual = Win) +3pts
Man City LOSE v Spurs (A) (Actual = Lose) 0
Arsenal WIN v Leicester (A) (Actual = Win) 0
Liverpool WIN v Villa (H) (Actual = Win) 0
Chelsea WIN v Newcastle (A) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Man Utd WIN v Sunderland (H) (Actual = Win) 0

Chelsea DRAW v Southampton (H) (Actual = Lose) -1pt
Man City WIN v Newcastle (H) (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs DRAW v Swansea (A) (Actual = Draw) 0
Arsenal DRAW v Man Utd (H) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man Utd LOSE v Arsenal (A) (Actual = Lose) 0
Liverpool DRAW v Everton (A) (Actual = Draw) 0

As it stands (after week

Title challenge

Man City +1
Man Utd +1
Arsenal -3
Spurs -5
Liverpool -5
Chelsea -11



Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd +4
Arsenal 1
Spurs -1
Liverpool -2
Chelsea -4



Upcoming Fixtures

Liverpool's next game is an opportunity to get the first 'better than expected' result since the draw at Arsenal.

Spurs v Liverpool (H) - Title: WIN / Top four: DRAW
Liverpool v Spurs (A) - Title: DRAW / Top four: LOSE
Chelsea v Villa (H) - Title: WIN/ Top four: WIN
Man Utd v Everton (A) - Title: WIN / Top four: DRAW
Man City v Bournemouth (H) - Title: WIN / Top four: WIN
Arsenal v Watford (A) - Title: WIN / Top four: WIN