LFC League Season Analysis - 2015/16

We've had similar threads like this before and it might be interesting to do it again this season.

In the past we have tended to use two points targets based on historical finishing totals of the teams in 4th and 5th place.

They were 87 points for a likely title win and 68 points as a target for 4th place.

Factoring in the last few seasons we will keep the title target points the same, but increase the target for 4th place.

In fact last season Chelsea won the title with the exact number of wins, draws and defeats that we have always used in our prediction method.

The following information depicts the 'easiest route' to achieve the points target.  Fixtures illustrated relate of course to Liverpool.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Man U).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea, Stoke). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (70 points)

Requirements:
Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 (Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (Chelsea, City)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Swansea, Stoke, Palace, Everton, West Ham). Defeated at the hardest 6. (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, United, Spurs, Southampton)

P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

Liverpool FC

Title Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge.

Top Four Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.


Other clubs (as of 19th August 2015)

Chelsea

Title Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Draw (0pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: 0 points. On course for top four.

Arsenal

Title Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: -1 points. Below top four challenge.

Man City

Title Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Defeat Actual Win (+3pts)

Overall: +3 points. On course for top four.

Man Utd

Title Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.

Spurs

Title Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Draw Actual Defeat (-1pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for top four.


As it stands

Title challenge

Liverpool +2
Man City +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -3
Spurs -3

Top four challenge

Man City +3
Liverpool +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1
Spurs -2

Upcoming fixtures

Targeting the title

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City WIN v Everton (A)
Arsenal WIN v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

Targeting top four

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City DRAW v Everton (A)
Arsenal DRAW v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

In summary, with regards to the five teams listed - Liverpool have the most to gain this coming weekend.

Great work as always JD.

Upcoming fixtures

Targeting the title

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City WIN v Everton (A)
Arsenal WIN v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

Targeting top four

Man Utd WIN v Newcastle (H)
Chelsea WIN v West Brom (A)
Man City DRAW v Everton (A)
Arsenal DRAW v Liverpool (H)
Liverpool LOSE v Arsenal (A)

In summary, with regards to the five teams listed - Liverpool have the most to gain this coming weekend.

Interesting perspective alright.

One thing not sure it accounts for is form, like a weighting or some such.
For example, playing Leicester now might be more difficult than playing them in 4 weeks time.
Or playing Chavs now might be more favourable than playing them in 4 weeks time, when Terry and Ivanovic have been replaced etc

Still, will have to check back in here to see how we are going against the template.  Doing OK so far ...

Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea, Stoke). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

To be honest mate, I'd have Everton in the bracket of draws probably ahead of all those. Their squad may not quite be as good as those you've listed but it's the Derby and unquestionably one of our hardest games of any season going to Goodison.

To be honest mate, I'd have Everton in the bracket of draws probably ahead of all those. Their squad may not quite be as good as those you've listed but it's the Derby and unquestionably one of our hardest games of any season going to Goodison.

Very good point. Ahead of Swansea I'd say but I'm guessing it's based on league positions last season?

To be honest mate, I'd have Everton in the bracket of draws probably ahead of all those.

Well they will have to work a little harder this season and finish higher in the league then.

None of this means diddley squat without a team that believes it will win.  Positivity. Go out and grab the win.
Next game - Arsenal away - go at them, get in behind, use pace, use width, use pressing, and we'll have a good chance of getting a result.  West Ham did it.  Positive, energetic football.  They will expect us to sit tight and absorb pressure, lets hit them hard and fast. 
Anything after that we take one game at a time.  It's the only way.
We need to turn traditional away tactics on their head and do a smash and grab on the 'top four' in these early away games.  Its the only way. Be positive - we are Liverpool!

3 points more than this time last season, 5 points more against the same opposition, with the usual caveat of swapping the promoted and relegated teams.

1 game at a time folks. try and win every game, if not then nick a draw, we will be there or there abouts.

Week 3 Update😄

Title Target

Man Utd [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Draw (-2pts)
Chelsea [Win v West Brom] Actual = Win (0)
Man City [Win v Everton] Actual = Win (0)
Arsenal [Win v Liverpool] Actual = Draw (-2)
Liverpool [Lose v Arsenal] Actual = Draw (+1)
Spurs [Win v Leicester] Actual = Draw (-2)

Top Four Target

Man Utd [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Draw (-2pts)
Chelsea [Win v West Brom] Actual = Win (0)
Man City [Draw v Everton] Actual = Win (+2)
Arsenal [Draw v Liverpool] Actual = Draw (0)
Liverpool [Lose v Arsenal] Actual = Draw (+1pts)
Spurs [Win v Leicester] Actual = Draw (-2)

As it stands (after week 3)

Title challenge

Liverpool +3
Man City +2
Man Utd 0
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -5
Spurs -5

Top four challenge

Man City +5
Liverpool +3
Man Utd 0
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1
Spurs -4





Upcoming Fixtures

Arsenal v Newcastle (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Palace (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v West Ham (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Watford (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Swansea (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Everton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Man Utd with the hardest fixture on paper and the most to gain this weekend.

1 point up on this time last year, 6 points up on versus the same teams.

1 point up on this time last year, 6 points up on versus the same teams.

the 6 points bit is the best & we lost away to stoke and arsenal last season a combined score of 10-2 loss. ffs.

we have turned that around big style.

Bad weekends for Liverpool and Chelsea, Spurs drift continues, Man City march on.

Week 4 Update

Arsenal v Newcastle (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Palace (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v West Ham (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Watford (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Swansea (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Everton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Title Target

Arsenal [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Win (0)
Chelsea [Win v Palace] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Liverpool [Win v West Ham] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Man City [Win v Watford] Actual = Won (0)
Man Utd [Draw v Swansea] Actual = Lost (-1)
Spurs [Win v Everton] Actual = Draw (-2)


Top Four Target

Arsenal [Win v Newcastle] Actual = Win (0)
Chelsea [Win v Palace] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Liverpool [Win v West Ham] Actual = Lost (-3pts)
Man City [Win v Watford] Actual = Won (0)
Man Utd [Draw v Swansea] Actual = Lost (-1)
Spurs [Win v Everton] Actual = Draw (-2)

As it stands (after week 4)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Liverpool 0
Man Utd -1
Chelsea -5
Arsenal -5
Spurs -7

Top four challenge

Man City +5
Liverpool 0
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -1
Chelsea -3
Spurs -6





Upcoming Fixtures

Chelsea v Everton (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Stoke (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Palace (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Liverpool (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Man Utd (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Spurs v Sunderland (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Liverpool with much to gain in the next league fixture.

A point more than this time last season, 3 points more against same opposition.

A point more than this time last season, 3 points more against same opposition.

And compared to the relatively more ambitious benchmark of the 13-14 season

3 points less after 4 games, 2 points less against same opposition.

In the unemotional world of stats, losing an away game at the 4th best side in the league isn't the end of the world - even though for many of us the performance was. Oh and Chelsea are stinking it up.

Week 5 Update

Title Target

Chelsea WIN v Everton (A) (Actual = Defeat) -3pts
Arsenal WIN v Stoke (H) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man City WIN v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd WIN v Liverpool (H) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Liverpool DRAW v Man Utd (A) (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Spurs WIN v Sunderland (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts

Top Four Target

Chelsea DRAW v Everton (A) (Actual = Defeat) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Stoke (H) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man City DRAW v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 2pts
Man Utd DRAW v Liverpool (H) (Actual = Win) 2pts
Liverpool LOSE v Man Utd (A) (Actual = Lost) 0pts
Spurs WIN v Sunderland (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts

As it stands (after week 5)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Liverpool -1
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -5
Spurs -7
Chelsea -8

Top four challenge

Man City +7
Man Utd 1
Liverpool 0
Arsenal -1
Chelsea -4
Spurs -6





Upcoming Fixtures

Liverpool have the only 'banker' out of the teams next week and thus the most to lose.

Chelsea v Arsenal (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Arsenal v Chelsea (A) - Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v West Ham (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Man Utd v Southampton (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Norwich (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v Palace (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW

No doubt about it.  Last weekend was a bad weekend for Liverpool and a good weekend for 4 of the teams.  Arsenal emerge unscathed after an expected result.

Week 6 Update

Title Target

Chelsea DRAW v Arsenal (H) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Arsenal LOSE v Chelsea(A) (Actual = Lose) 0pts
Man City WIN v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd DRAW v Southampton (A) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Liverpool WIN v Norwich(H) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs WIN v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) 0pts

Top Four Target

Chelsea LOSE v Arsenal (H) (Actual = Win) +3pts
Arsenal LOSE v Chelsea(A) (Actual = Lose) 0pts
Man City DRAW v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man Utd LOSE v Southampton (A) (Actual = Win) +3pts
Liverpool WIN v Norwich(H) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs DRAW v Palace (A) (Actual = Win) +2pts

As it stands (after week 6)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Man Utd +1
Liverpool -3
Arsenal -5
Spurs -7
Chelsea -6

Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd 4
Arsenal -1
Chelsea -1
Liverpool -2
Spurs -4






Upcoming Fixtures

Spurs and Man City have the opportunity to improve on expected result.  Potential slip ups for the other four sides.

Spurs v Man City (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v Spurs (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Arsenal v Leicester (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v Villa (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Newcastle (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Sunderland (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Predicted point ranges after week 6 based on above data

Man City 79 - 91 pts
Man Utd 74 - 90 pts
Liverpool 68 - 84 pts
Arsenal 69 - 82 pts
Chelsea 69 - 81 pts
Spurs 66 - 80 pts

Averages and ranking

1. Man City 85 pts
2. Man Utd 82 pts
3. Liverpool 76 pts
4. Arsenal 75.5 pts
5. Chelsea 75 pts
6. Spurs 73 pts

Predicted point ranges after week 6 based on above data

Man City 79 - 91 pts
Man Utd 74 - 90 pts
Liverpool 68 - 84 pts
Arsenal 69 - 82 pts
Chelsea 69 - 81 pts
Spurs 66 - 80 pts

Averages and ranking

1. Man City 85 pts
2. Man Utd 82 pts
3. Liverpool 76 pts
4. Arsenal 75.5 pts
5. Chelsea 75 pts
6. Spurs 73 pts

I just don't see how in the world we could expect to finish 3rd the way we look right now.

I just don't see how in the world we could expect to finish 3rd the way we look right now.

Stats and damn lies mate.

I just don't see how in the world we could expect to finish 3rd the way we look right now.

Shhhh we are using these stats to attract Ancelotti .... just hope we don't send him the league table by mistake.

Seriously I like this thread as it tends to give a more optimistic and balanced view.

Double update - Arsenal and Spurs with the best results of the past two weeks - Chelsea and Liverpool dropping points.

Week 7 and 8 Update

Title Target

Spurs DRAW v Man City (H)  (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man City DRAW v Spurs (A)  (Actual = Lose) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Leicester (A) (Actual = Win) 0
Liverpool WIN v Villa (H)  (Actual = Win) 0
Chelsea WIN v Newcastle (A) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Man Utd WIN v Sunderland (H) (Actual = Win) 0

Chelsea WIN v Southampton (H) (Actual = Lose) -3pts
Man City WIN v Newcastle (H) (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs DRAW v Swansea (A) (Actual = Draw) 0
Arsenal DRAW v Man Utd (H) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man Utd LOSE v Arsenal (A) (Actual = Lose) 0
Liverpool WIN v Everton (A) (Actual = Draw) -2pts

Top Four Target

Spurs LOSE v Man City (H) (Actual = Win) +3pts
Man City LOSE v Spurs (A) (Actual = Lose) 0
Arsenal WIN v Leicester (A) (Actual = Win) 0
Liverpool WIN v Villa (H) (Actual = Win) 0
Chelsea WIN v Newcastle (A) (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Man Utd WIN v Sunderland (H) (Actual = Win) 0

Chelsea DRAW v Southampton (H) (Actual = Lose) -1pt
Man City WIN v Newcastle (H) (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs DRAW v Swansea (A) (Actual = Draw) 0
Arsenal DRAW v Man Utd (H) (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man Utd LOSE v Arsenal (A) (Actual = Lose) 0
Liverpool DRAW v Everton (A) (Actual = Draw) 0

As it stands (after week

Title challenge

Man City +1
Man Utd +1
Arsenal -3
Spurs -5
Liverpool -5
Chelsea -11



Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd +4
Arsenal 1
Spurs -1
Liverpool -2
Chelsea -4



Upcoming Fixtures

Liverpool's next game is an opportunity to get the first 'better than expected' result since the draw at Arsenal.

Spurs v Liverpool (H) - Title: WIN / Top four: DRAW
Liverpool v Spurs (A) - Title: DRAW / Top four: LOSE
Chelsea v Villa (H) - Title: WIN/ Top four: WIN
Man Utd v Everton (A) - Title: WIN / Top four: DRAW
Man City v Bournemouth (H) - Title: WIN / Top four: WIN
Arsenal v Watford (A) - Title: WIN / Top four: WIN

It's not a huge result for Liverpool but in terms of finishing in the top four it is our first 'better than expected' result since August.

Week 9 Update

Title Target

Spurs WIN v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Liverpool DRAW v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Chelsea WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd WIN v Everton (A) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man City WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Win) 0pts

Top Four Target

Spurs DRAW v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Liverpool LOSE v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Chelsea WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd DRAW v Everton (A) - (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man City WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Win) 0pts

As it stands (after week 9)

Title challenge

Man City +1
Man Utd +1
Arsenal -3
Liverpool -5
Spurs -7
Chelsea -11



Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd +6
Arsenal 1
Spurs -1
Liverpool -1
Chelsea -4



Upcoming fixtures

Luckily, or unluckily for our new German manager he also has the opportunity next week to register another 'better than expected' result - at least in terms of being the fourth placed team.

Big battle at Old Trafford too.

Chelsea v West Ham (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Everton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v Bournemouth (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Man City (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v Man Utd (A) - Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Southampton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW

Week 10 Update

Chelsea and Liverpool take the punishment in week 10.  LFC and Spurs now level pegging in both analysis.  The 3 point difference in the actual league table highlighting the 'easier' start Spurs have had compared to the reds.

Title Target

Chelsea WIN v West Ham (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Arsenal WIN v Everton (H) - (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Win) 0
Man Utd DRAW v Man City (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0
Man City LOSE v Man Utd (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pt
Liverpool WIN v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts

Top Four Target

Chelsea DRAW v West Ham (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Everton (H) - (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Win) 0
Man Utd LOSE v Man City (H) - (Actual = Draw) 1pt
Man City LOSE v Man Utd (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pt
Liverpool DRAW v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0

As it stands (after week 10)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Man Utd +1
Arsenal -3
Liverpool -7
Spurs -7
Chelsea -14



Top four challenge

Man City +10
Man Utd +7
Arsenal 1
Spurs -1
Liverpool -1
Chelsea -5



Upcoming fixtures

Chelsea and Liverpool may have underperformed last week but next week they both have some boost potential - Liverpool obviously with the bigger opportunity to get an 'upset'.  Opportunity for Arsenal as well to get back to being serious contenders.

Chelsea v Liverpool (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Chelsea (A) - Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Man Utd v Crystal Palace (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Man City v Norwich (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v Swansea (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Villa (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Unbeaten in 10. Ok we drawn too many of those but that's a bit of consistency

So annoying that Spurs are playing tonight as I've been looking forward all weekend to updating this!

So annoying that Spurs are playing tonight as I've been looking forward all weekend to updating this!

Just assume they'll lose

Week 11 Update

Yeeeeerrrrsssseeee!  (Good weekend for Arsenal as well who get themselves back involved as title contenders).

Chelsea are an incredible 17 points below title form, 19 points behind Man City and continuing to plunge downwards.  They have had only 1 'better than expected' result out of 11 and 7 'worse than expected' results.

Liverpool meanwhile get easily their best result of the season.  In the chase for the top four the reds move back above the threshold for a top four spot.

Liverpool have had 4 'better than expected' results in the race for the top four, two of which have come in Klopp's first three games in charge. The reds have had 2 'worse than expected' results and 5 expected.

Title Target

Chelsea WIN v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool LOSE v Chelsea (A) - (Actual = Won) 3pts
Man Utd WIN v Crystal Palace (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Man City WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Swansea (A) - (Actual = Win) 2pts
Spurs WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts


Top Four Target

Chelsea DRAW v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Liverpool LOSE v Chelsea (A) - (Actual = Win) 3pts
Man Utd DRAW v Crystal Palace (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Man City WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Swansea (A) - (Actual = Win) 2pts
Spurs WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts

As it stands (after week 11)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -1
Liverpool -4
Spurs -7
Chelsea -17



Top four challenge

Man City +10
Man Utd +7
Arsenal +3
Liverpool +2
Spurs -1
Chelsea -6



Upcoming fixtures

Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool should all win - no potential upswing for them.  Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea all with an opportunity to get better than expected results.

Man Utd v West Brom (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Stoke (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Man City v Villa (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v Spurs (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Spurs v Arsenal (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Crystal Palace (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

was going to say that JD do you really expect us to beat Crystal Palace? It is not an easy game anymore as most of the TOP4 have found out. So, CP is not a gimme for us (but I am sure Klopp has something up his sleeve).

I know what you mean.  You could argue that currently Chelsea away isn't the hardest league match any team can face now - but on day 1 of the league it was.  All the teams have the same rule applied to them and in this case if a team aims to finish top four then they should be 'expected' to beat the 10th placed side at their own ground and get a draw with them away.

According to the way we've ranked teams our worst result has been West Ham at home and best has been Chelsea away. 

Now even though West Ham are riding high (like Palace say) and Chelsea are riding low! I think most people would probably agree with that.

I know what you mean.  You could argue that currently Chelsea away isn't the hardest league match any team can face now - but on day 1 of the league it was.  All the teams have the same rule applied to them and in this case if a team aims to finish top four then they should be 'expected' to beat the 10th placed side at their own ground and get a draw with them away.

According to the way we've ranked teams our worst result has been West Ham at home and best has been Chelsea away. 

Now even though West Ham are riding high (like Palace say) and Chelsea are riding low! I think most people would probably agree with that.

I lost interest last season, as most probably did given the season we had, but how did the "alternative points tables" match up with reality by the end?

A link to the thread would do mate... I have looked but couldn't find it. 

I lost interest last season

So did I that's why I didn't do it.

I found the 2011-12 one which did predict early on that Man City and United would battle it out, that Spurs would do well and we even brought Newcastle in to it (they finished 5th).

Only things wrong then were that Liverpool took a league nosedive in the second half of the season (season with both cup finals) and Arsenal improved to finish 3rd.

This was how it looked at the start of November 2011 - teams had played 10 games.

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +4
Newcastle +2
Liverpool +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1

League Table finished, some 28 games later as

Man City 89
Man Utd 89
Arsenal 70
Spurs 69
Newcastle 65
Chelsea 64

Interesting in a way because at the time Man City already had a 5 point lead over United in the actual league table but comparing game performance had wiped this difference out, which ultimately turned out to be true as they finished level on points.

I always enjoy looking at the alternate table and projecting how results should go in upcoming games. With regards to this season, I think you have to assume the following:

- West Ham and Leicester will fall away from the top 6
- Chelsea will improve and challenge for a place in the top 5
- Arsenal and City will battle it out for the title

If you assume all of this, that leaves 2 remaining CL qualification spots open for 6 teams to compete for - Liverpool, Chelsea, United, Spurs, Southampton, and Everton.

Looking at the next 2 months worth of fixtures:

United have the easiest looking schedule and should fare well between now and January.
Liverpool and Everton both have fairly manageable schedules and should be able to improve on current standings.
Chelsea have a few tricky games, and may find it difficult to make a big jump in the table.
Southampton and Tottenham have brutal schedules and should both have a tough time keeping pace with the top 4.

The City game aside, we really should be collecting a lot of points  before the turn of the year. Assuming we do, we should be primed to cracked back into the top 4 and reclaim a spot in the CL for next season.

I found the 2011-12 one which did predict early on that Man City and United would battle it out, that Spurs would do well and we even brought Newcastle in to it (they finished 5th).

Only things wrong then were that Liverpool took a league nosedive in the second half of the season (season with both cup finals) and Arsenal improved to finish 3rd.

This was how it looked at the start of November 2011 - teams had played 10 games.

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +4
Newcastle +2
Liverpool +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1

League Table finished, some 28 games later as

Man City 89
Man Utd 89
Arsenal 70
Spurs 69
Newcastle 65
Chelsea 64

Interesting in a way because at the time Man City already had a 5 point lead over United in the actual league table but comparing game performance had wiped this difference out, which ultimately turned out to be true as they finished level on points.

Thanks for that J.D. It's good to know that there is some correlation between the two, which is what I was hoping for. Obviously things like total loss of form (Chelsea ) or unexpected change in fortune (hopefully Liverpool under Klopp) will have a significant effect on the points accrued. Beating Chelsea last season would have been a huge 3+ whereas at the moment beating Chelsea probably isn't really worth the 3+ we gained in the alternate table.

Cracking thread.

I always enjoy looking at the alternate table and projecting how results should go in upcoming games. With regards to this season, I think you have to assume the following:

- West Ham and Leicester will fall away from the top 6
- Chelsea will improve and challenge for a place in the top 5
- Arsenal and City will battle it out for the title

West Ham and Leicester most likely.  Like I said, we brought Newcastle into it after about 10 games a few years ago - can't remember the exact reason why (can't remember if they had been semi-decent the season before).  If these both keep going well over the next 2 or 3 games I'm probably going to have to take a look at where they are at.

Chelsea's league position looks bad (6 pts behind us) but in our top four chart they are only 3 points behind us.  That's one decent win (or one bad result for us) and shows that they've actually had a slightly more difficult start than us - so no way are they out of the top four chase - although they've got almost zero hope of winning the league.

Arsenal, City and United all looking like the top three at the minute.  Arsenal have definitely had the most straight-forward results of any of the teams I've been including - 2 good results though in the last four have reversed the damage done on the opening day.

Week 12 Update

Liverpool with the worst weekend of our 'top six' teams. Man City and Chelsea also drop points they were expected to collect.

Arsenal the only side to gain a point this weekend - their draw away at Spurs was a good result in terms of finishing top four, although Arsenal definitely look like they have much higher ambitions than that this season.

Good result for Spurs who played at the EMIRATES (Thanks zan!). They pick up a point in a better than expected result.

Next point Chelsea drop will see them removed from our analysis in terms of title.  Title race, as it stands, is a 3 horse race with Man City still slightly ahead.

Title Target

Man Utd WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pts
Man City WIN v Villa (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal DRAW v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Spurs DRAW v Arsenal (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Spurs (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Spurs LOSE v Arsenal (A) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Liverpool WIN v Crystal Palace (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Top Four Target

Man Utd WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pts
Man City WIN v Villa (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal LOSE v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pts
Spurs DRAW v Arsenal (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Spurs (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Spurs LOSE v Arsenal (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pts
Liverpool WIN v Crystal Palace (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

As it stands (after week 12)

Title challenge

Man City 0
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -1
Spurs -6
Liverpool -7
Spurs -7
Chelsea -18



Top four challenge

Man City +8
Man Utd +7
Arsenal +4
Arsenal +3
Spurs 0
Liverpool -1
Spurs -1
Chelsea -7



Upcoming fixtures

Liverpool with easily the most difficult game after the international break.  Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs all expected to get 3 points.

If Liverpool had beaten Palace, and then beaten City they would have been just 1 point away from title form - level with United and Arsenal as title contenders, but Palace was a big blow.

From here for Liverpool to get to title winning form they could win against City and then go an impressive run until the 16th January (on paper we have an easy run of fixtures).  If Liverpool lose against City they would then need to go on an impressive run until the 12th March.

Not going to be our year boys and girls!

Man Utd v Watford (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Norwich (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v West Brom (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Liverpool (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Man City (A) Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Tottenham v West Ham (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

JD, appreciate all your work on this, thanks.

The only thing I can see wrong is that you say Arsenal played away, when the game was at The Emirates?

JD, appreciate all your work on this, thanks.

The only thing I can see wrong is that you say Arsenal played away, when the game was at The Emirates?

Nice one!  Good to see someone is paying attention.  I have updated the stats.  Spurs get a point for what was a better than expected result.  Arsenal lose a point in the top four analysis.

It should be nice to see the new graphs after our last win against City, and how we stand as contenders at the moment.

Week 13 Update

Liverpool continuing their recent run of getting the complete opposite expected result. Our win cancels out the disappointing result against Palace.  City and more so Arsenal the big losers of the weekend.

Liverpool move ahead of Spurs based on matches played and our now closest challengers are Arsenal.  Man Utd move slightly ahead of Man City in the race for the title.

In the title race no team is in positive numbers.  So on current form the winner of the title won't need to get 87 points.

Title Target

Man Utd WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v West Brom (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Man City WIN v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool LOSE v Man City (A) - (Actual = Won) 3pts
Tottenham WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts

Top Four Target

Man Utd WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Arsenal WINv West Brom (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Man City DRAW v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -1pts
Liverpool LOSE v Man City (A) - (Actual = Won) 3pts
Tottenham WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts

As it stands (after week 13)

Title challenge


Man Utd -1
Man City -3
Arsenal -4
Liverpool -4
Spurs -6
Chelsea -18



Top four challenge

Man Utd +7
Man City +7
Liverpool 2
Arsenal 0
Spurs 0
Chelsea -7



Upcoming fixtures

So the reds 'difficult' run is over.  The next 7 games are all expected wins for Liverpool (if they are to be title contenders - which is, yeah, unlikely).  This Swansea game and the seventh game in the run (West Ham) away are ranked the most difficult - a win in those games would be 'better than expected' for a team chasing the top four.

15 points from the next 21 available would put Liverpool level with top four form.  Tough ask.

So not much upside but plenty of downsides for the reds until 12th January.

Let's just keep winning and hope the other teams have their own problems!

Man City v Southampton (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Man Utd v Leicester (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v Chelsea (H) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Chelsea v Spurs (A) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Swansea (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Norwich (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Week 14 Update

Good weekend for City and Liverpool.  Chelsea and Spurs play out a beneficial draw for both sides while Man Utd and Arsenal should have done better. 

Arsenal look on the slide and although they are above Liverpool in the actual table they do not seem to have taken advantage of a far easier fixture list so far.

Title Target

Man City WIN v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Man Utd WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts 
Spurs DRAW v Chelsea (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Chelsea DRAW v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Liverpool WIN v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v Norwich (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts

Top Four Target

Man City DRAW v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Won) +2pts
Man Utd WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs LOSE v Chelsea (H) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Chelsea LOSE v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Liverpool DRAW v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Won) +2pts
Arsenal WIN v Norwich (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts

As it stands (after week 14)

Title challenge


Man City -3
Man Utd -3
Liverpool -4
Arsenal -6
Spurs -6
Chelsea -18



Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd +5
Liverpool +4
Spurs +1
Arsenal -2
Chelsea -6



Upcoming fixtures

Man City the only side with the opportunity to record a 'better than expected' result this weekend.  The three sides at home are all against weaker teams and both Spurs and Liverpool face one of the 8 teams a top four side should beat away.

Just like last weekend we will be hoping we do our job and others drop points.

Man City v Stoke (A) Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Sunderland (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v West Ham (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v West Brom (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v Newcastle (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Bournemouth (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Out of interest JD do you know from previous years stats if the teams sitting in the positions now have went on and finished the league in that order or how close it has been?

There is a post near the top of this page where s@int asked a similar question.

Two weeks worth to catch up.  And it wasn't a spectacular two weeks.

Week 15 and 16 Update

Liverpool, Man Utd, Spurs and Chelsea suffering.  Only Arsenal clung on in with respectable results.

We will have to bring Leicester into the analysis - but for now it looks like this season won't be a record points total - at least not by any of the traditional 'big six'.

Title Target

Man City DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Sunderland (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Man Utd WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs WIN v West Brom (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Liverpool WIN v Newcastle (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Chelsea WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Man Utd WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Man City WIN v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Spurs WIN v Newcastle (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal WIN v Aston Villa (A)- (Actual = Won) 0pt
Chelsea WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Top Four Target

Man City DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Sunderland (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Man Utd WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs WIN v West Brom (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Liverpool WIN v Newcastle (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Chelsea WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Man Utd WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pt
Man City DRAW v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Spurs WIN v Newcastle (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal WIN v Aston Villa (A) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Chelsea WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

As it stands (after week 16)

Title challenge

Man City -4
Man Utd -8
Liverpool -9
Arsenal -6
Spurs -11
Chelsea -24 * Chelsea to be removed from this analysis



And without the graph extending to Chelsea




Top four challenge

Man City +7
Man Utd 0
Liverpool -1
Arsenal -2
Spurs -4
Chelsea -12



Upcoming fixtures

Last games before Christmas.

Options for some sides to get better than expected results although for Liverpool - they should beat Watford away if they aim to be in the top four.

Chelsea v Sunderland (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Norwich (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Leicester v Everton (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Southampton (A) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Watford (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v Man City (H) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v Arsenal (A) Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE

Leicester City Analysis

Applying same rules to Leicester City

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Man U).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Liverpool, Southampton, Swansea). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (70 points)

Requirements:
Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 (Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, Liverpool, Southampton). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (Chelsea, City)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Southampton, Swansea, Stoke, Palace, Everton). Defeated at the hardest 6. (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, United, Spurs, Liverpool)

P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

Opposition - Expected results title/top four - Result - Total Pts compared to (title challenge - top four challenge)

Sunderland (H) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won 0 0
West Ham (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN  - Won  0 0
Spurs (H) EXPECTED WIN/DRAW - Draw -2 0
Bournemouth (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Draw -4 -2
Villa (H) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -4 -2
Stoke (A) EXPECTED WIN/DRAW - Draw -6 -2
Arsenal (H) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Lost -7 -3
Norwich (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -3
Southampton (A) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Draw -7 -3
Crystal Palace (H) EXPECTED WIN/DRAW - Won -7 -1 *10 games in before Leicester's first better than expected result for a top four side
West Brom (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -1
Watford (H) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -1
Newcastl (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -1
Man Utd (H) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Draw -7 -1
Swansea (A) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Won -5 1 *15 games into the season before Leicester record their first better than expected result for a title winning side
Chelsea (H) EXPECTED DRAW/LOST - Won -3 4 *which they do again - admittedly against a woeful Chelsea team

Analysis

If we can ignore where they have come from and look simply at their opponents they have had a significantly easier run of games than, for example, Liverpool.  The true difference between the two clubs, based on games played, is more like 5 or 6 points.

According to these results it wasn't until game 15 that Leicester 'overtook' Liverpool in terms of results - although they have been ahead of the reds in the league table all season.

Graphs with Leicester included

We've had similar threads like this before and it might be interesting to do it again this season.

In the past we have tended to use two points targets based on historical finishing totals of the teams in 4th and 5th place.

They were 87 points for a likely title win and 68 points as a target for 4th place.

Factoring in the last few seasons we will keep the title target points the same, but increase the target for 4th place.

In fact last season Chelsea won the title with the exact number of wins, draws and defeats that we have always used in our prediction method.

The following information depicts the 'easiest route' to achieve the points target.  Fixtures illustrated relate of course to Liverpool.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Man U).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea, Stoke). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (70 points)

Requirements:
Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 (Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (Chelsea, City)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Swansea, Stoke, Palace, Everton, West Ham). Defeated at the hardest 6. (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, United, Spurs, Southampton)

P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

Liverpool FC

Title Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge.

Top Four Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.


Other clubs (as of 19th August 2015)

Chelsea

Title Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Draw (0pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: 0 points. On course for top four.

Arsenal

Title Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: -1 points. Below top four challenge.

Man City

Title Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Defeat Actual Win (+3pts)

Overall: +3 points. On course for top four.

Man Utd

Title Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.

Spurs

Title Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Draw Actual Defeat (-1pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for top four.


As it stands

Title challenge

Liverpool +2
Man City +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -3
Spurs -3

Top four challenge

Man City +3
Liverpool +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1
Spurs -2

Man,what a stat's...
You work for the government?

Love this,  good work!

We missed out on a chance to really climb the table in December, but no one is really stringing winning runs together so the league is still wide open.  One thing is certain though, we desperately need to improve our goal difference.  We are the only side in the top 12 with a negative goal difference.....

We missed out on a chance to really climb the table in December, but no one is really stringing winning runs together so the league is still wide open.  One thing is certain though, we desperately need to improve our goal difference.  We are the only side in the top 12 with a negative goal difference.....

Spurs look on top form.

Spurs look on top form.

Thats who we need to track .

8 points behind em with a game in hand.

Realistically with the squad inherited we haven't enough quality to even think about the title A couple of transfer windows bringing three players max in at each one would put us in contention.


Top 4 / Trophy   would be great from where we are.

Too busy sorting out the new forum layout problems, or just losing interest JD ?

Too busy sorting out the new forum layout problems, or just losing interest JD ?

CliffsNotes version: We're way off of where we need to be.

Too busy sorting out the new forum layout problems, or just losing interest JD ?

Some truth in the first part - but mainly Christmas is a killer for falling behind.  Will do a monstrous update on Tuesday.

Meanwhile - amazing that Leicester, even though they have only won 1 of their last 5 games, are still top of the Premier League.

Hi

Been a member for a while but never commented. I was just wondering if this thread is going to be revived as i used to find it a great read.

Hi

Been a member for a while but never commented. I was just wondering if this thread is going to be revived as i used to find it a great read.

Yes. I'm going to automate it to save me time and then bring it back.