LFC League Season Analysis - 2015/16

It's not a huge result for Liverpool but in terms of finishing in the top four it is our first 'better than expected' result since August.

Week 9 Update

Title Target

Spurs WIN v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Liverpool DRAW v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Chelsea WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd WIN v Everton (A) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man City WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Win) 0pts

Top Four Target

Spurs DRAW v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Liverpool LOSE v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Chelsea WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Man Utd DRAW v Everton (A) - (Actual = Win) +2pts
Man City WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Win) 0pts

As it stands (after week 9)

Title challenge

Man City +1
Man Utd +1
Arsenal -3
Liverpool -5
Spurs -7
Chelsea -11



Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd +6
Arsenal 1
Spurs -1
Liverpool -1
Chelsea -4



Upcoming fixtures

Luckily, or unluckily for our new German manager he also has the opportunity next week to register another 'better than expected' result - at least in terms of being the fourth placed team.

Big battle at Old Trafford too.

Chelsea v West Ham (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Everton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v Bournemouth (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Man City (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v Man Utd (A) - Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Southampton (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW

Week 10 Update

Chelsea and Liverpool take the punishment in week 10.  LFC and Spurs now level pegging in both analysis.  The 3 point difference in the actual league table highlighting the 'easier' start Spurs have had compared to the reds.

Title Target

Chelsea WIN v West Ham (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Arsenal WIN v Everton (H) - (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Win) 0
Man Utd DRAW v Man City (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0
Man City LOSE v Man Utd (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pt
Liverpool WIN v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts

Top Four Target

Chelsea DRAW v West Ham (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Everton (H) - (Actual = Win) 0
Spurs WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Win) 0
Man Utd LOSE v Man City (H) - (Actual = Draw) 1pt
Man City LOSE v Man Utd (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pt
Liverpool DRAW v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0

As it stands (after week 10)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Man Utd +1
Arsenal -3
Liverpool -7
Spurs -7
Chelsea -14



Top four challenge

Man City +10
Man Utd +7
Arsenal 1
Spurs -1
Liverpool -1
Chelsea -5



Upcoming fixtures

Chelsea and Liverpool may have underperformed last week but next week they both have some boost potential - Liverpool obviously with the bigger opportunity to get an 'upset'.  Opportunity for Arsenal as well to get back to being serious contenders.

Chelsea v Liverpool (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Chelsea (A) - Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Man Utd v Crystal Palace (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Man City v Norwich (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v Swansea (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Villa (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Unbeaten in 10. Ok we drawn too many of those but that's a bit of consistency

So annoying that Spurs are playing tonight as I've been looking forward all weekend to updating this!

So annoying that Spurs are playing tonight as I've been looking forward all weekend to updating this!

Just assume they'll lose

Week 11 Update

Yeeeeerrrrsssseeee!  (Good weekend for Arsenal as well who get themselves back involved as title contenders).

Chelsea are an incredible 17 points below title form, 19 points behind Man City and continuing to plunge downwards.  They have had only 1 'better than expected' result out of 11 and 7 'worse than expected' results.

Liverpool meanwhile get easily their best result of the season.  In the chase for the top four the reds move back above the threshold for a top four spot.

Liverpool have had 4 'better than expected' results in the race for the top four, two of which have come in Klopp's first three games in charge. The reds have had 2 'worse than expected' results and 5 expected.

Title Target

Chelsea WIN v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool LOSE v Chelsea (A) - (Actual = Won) 3pts
Man Utd WIN v Crystal Palace (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Man City WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Swansea (A) - (Actual = Win) 2pts
Spurs WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts


Top Four Target

Chelsea DRAW v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Liverpool LOSE v Chelsea (A) - (Actual = Win) 3pts
Man Utd DRAW v Crystal Palace (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Man City WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Swansea (A) - (Actual = Win) 2pts
Spurs WIN v Villa (H) - (Actual = Win) 0pts

As it stands (after week 11)

Title challenge

Man City +2
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -1
Liverpool -4
Spurs -7
Chelsea -17



Top four challenge

Man City +10
Man Utd +7
Arsenal +3
Liverpool +2
Spurs -1
Chelsea -6



Upcoming fixtures

Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool should all win - no potential upswing for them.  Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea all with an opportunity to get better than expected results.

Man Utd v West Brom (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Stoke (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Man City v Villa (A) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v Spurs (A) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Spurs v Arsenal (H) - Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Crystal Palace (H) - Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

was going to say that JD do you really expect us to beat Crystal Palace? It is not an easy game anymore as most of the TOP4 have found out. So, CP is not a gimme for us (but I am sure Klopp has something up his sleeve).

I know what you mean.  You could argue that currently Chelsea away isn't the hardest league match any team can face now - but on day 1 of the league it was.  All the teams have the same rule applied to them and in this case if a team aims to finish top four then they should be 'expected' to beat the 10th placed side at their own ground and get a draw with them away.

According to the way we've ranked teams our worst result has been West Ham at home and best has been Chelsea away. 

Now even though West Ham are riding high (like Palace say) and Chelsea are riding low! I think most people would probably agree with that.

I know what you mean.  You could argue that currently Chelsea away isn't the hardest league match any team can face now - but on day 1 of the league it was.  All the teams have the same rule applied to them and in this case if a team aims to finish top four then they should be 'expected' to beat the 10th placed side at their own ground and get a draw with them away.

According to the way we've ranked teams our worst result has been West Ham at home and best has been Chelsea away. 

Now even though West Ham are riding high (like Palace say) and Chelsea are riding low! I think most people would probably agree with that.

I lost interest last season, as most probably did given the season we had, but how did the "alternative points tables" match up with reality by the end?

A link to the thread would do mate... I have looked but couldn't find it. 

I lost interest last season

So did I that's why I didn't do it.

I found the 2011-12 one which did predict early on that Man City and United would battle it out, that Spurs would do well and we even brought Newcastle in to it (they finished 5th).

Only things wrong then were that Liverpool took a league nosedive in the second half of the season (season with both cup finals) and Arsenal improved to finish 3rd.

This was how it looked at the start of November 2011 - teams had played 10 games.

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +4
Newcastle +2
Liverpool +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1

League Table finished, some 28 games later as

Man City 89
Man Utd 89
Arsenal 70
Spurs 69
Newcastle 65
Chelsea 64

Interesting in a way because at the time Man City already had a 5 point lead over United in the actual league table but comparing game performance had wiped this difference out, which ultimately turned out to be true as they finished level on points.

I always enjoy looking at the alternate table and projecting how results should go in upcoming games. With regards to this season, I think you have to assume the following:

- West Ham and Leicester will fall away from the top 6
- Chelsea will improve and challenge for a place in the top 5
- Arsenal and City will battle it out for the title

If you assume all of this, that leaves 2 remaining CL qualification spots open for 6 teams to compete for - Liverpool, Chelsea, United, Spurs, Southampton, and Everton.

Looking at the next 2 months worth of fixtures:

United have the easiest looking schedule and should fare well between now and January.
Liverpool and Everton both have fairly manageable schedules and should be able to improve on current standings.
Chelsea have a few tricky games, and may find it difficult to make a big jump in the table.
Southampton and Tottenham have brutal schedules and should both have a tough time keeping pace with the top 4.

The City game aside, we really should be collecting a lot of points  before the turn of the year. Assuming we do, we should be primed to cracked back into the top 4 and reclaim a spot in the CL for next season.

I found the 2011-12 one which did predict early on that Man City and United would battle it out, that Spurs would do well and we even brought Newcastle in to it (they finished 5th).

Only things wrong then were that Liverpool took a league nosedive in the second half of the season (season with both cup finals) and Arsenal improved to finish 3rd.

This was how it looked at the start of November 2011 - teams had played 10 games.

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +4
Newcastle +2
Liverpool +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1

League Table finished, some 28 games later as

Man City 89
Man Utd 89
Arsenal 70
Spurs 69
Newcastle 65
Chelsea 64

Interesting in a way because at the time Man City already had a 5 point lead over United in the actual league table but comparing game performance had wiped this difference out, which ultimately turned out to be true as they finished level on points.

Thanks for that J.D. It's good to know that there is some correlation between the two, which is what I was hoping for. Obviously things like total loss of form (Chelsea ) or unexpected change in fortune (hopefully Liverpool under Klopp) will have a significant effect on the points accrued. Beating Chelsea last season would have been a huge 3+ whereas at the moment beating Chelsea probably isn't really worth the 3+ we gained in the alternate table.

Cracking thread.

I always enjoy looking at the alternate table and projecting how results should go in upcoming games. With regards to this season, I think you have to assume the following:

- West Ham and Leicester will fall away from the top 6
- Chelsea will improve and challenge for a place in the top 5
- Arsenal and City will battle it out for the title

West Ham and Leicester most likely.  Like I said, we brought Newcastle into it after about 10 games a few years ago - can't remember the exact reason why (can't remember if they had been semi-decent the season before).  If these both keep going well over the next 2 or 3 games I'm probably going to have to take a look at where they are at.

Chelsea's league position looks bad (6 pts behind us) but in our top four chart they are only 3 points behind us.  That's one decent win (or one bad result for us) and shows that they've actually had a slightly more difficult start than us - so no way are they out of the top four chase - although they've got almost zero hope of winning the league.

Arsenal, City and United all looking like the top three at the minute.  Arsenal have definitely had the most straight-forward results of any of the teams I've been including - 2 good results though in the last four have reversed the damage done on the opening day.

Week 12 Update

Liverpool with the worst weekend of our 'top six' teams. Man City and Chelsea also drop points they were expected to collect.

Arsenal the only side to gain a point this weekend - their draw away at Spurs was a good result in terms of finishing top four, although Arsenal definitely look like they have much higher ambitions than that this season.

Good result for Spurs who played at the EMIRATES (Thanks zan!). They pick up a point in a better than expected result.

Next point Chelsea drop will see them removed from our analysis in terms of title.  Title race, as it stands, is a 3 horse race with Man City still slightly ahead.

Title Target

Man Utd WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pts
Man City WIN v Villa (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal DRAW v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Spurs DRAW v Arsenal (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Spurs (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Spurs LOSE v Arsenal (A) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Liverpool WIN v Crystal Palace (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Top Four Target

Man Utd WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pts
Man City WIN v Villa (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal LOSE v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pts
Spurs DRAW v Arsenal (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Arsenal DRAW v Spurs (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Spurs LOSE v Arsenal (A) - (Actual = Draw) 1pts
Liverpool WIN v Crystal Palace (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

As it stands (after week 12)

Title challenge

Man City 0
Man Utd -1
Arsenal -1
Spurs -6
Liverpool -7
Spurs -7
Chelsea -18



Top four challenge

Man City +8
Man Utd +7
Arsenal +4
Arsenal +3
Spurs 0
Liverpool -1
Spurs -1
Chelsea -7



Upcoming fixtures

Liverpool with easily the most difficult game after the international break.  Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs all expected to get 3 points.

If Liverpool had beaten Palace, and then beaten City they would have been just 1 point away from title form - level with United and Arsenal as title contenders, but Palace was a big blow.

From here for Liverpool to get to title winning form they could win against City and then go an impressive run until the 16th January (on paper we have an easy run of fixtures).  If Liverpool lose against City they would then need to go on an impressive run until the 12th March.

Not going to be our year boys and girls!

Man Utd v Watford (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Norwich (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v West Brom (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man City v Liverpool (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Liverpool v Man City (A) Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE
Tottenham v West Ham (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

JD, appreciate all your work on this, thanks.

The only thing I can see wrong is that you say Arsenal played away, when the game was at The Emirates?

JD, appreciate all your work on this, thanks.

The only thing I can see wrong is that you say Arsenal played away, when the game was at The Emirates?

Nice one!  Good to see someone is paying attention.  I have updated the stats.  Spurs get a point for what was a better than expected result.  Arsenal lose a point in the top four analysis.

It should be nice to see the new graphs after our last win against City, and how we stand as contenders at the moment.

Week 13 Update

Liverpool continuing their recent run of getting the complete opposite expected result. Our win cancels out the disappointing result against Palace.  City and more so Arsenal the big losers of the weekend.

Liverpool move ahead of Spurs based on matches played and our now closest challengers are Arsenal.  Man Utd move slightly ahead of Man City in the race for the title.

In the title race no team is in positive numbers.  So on current form the winner of the title won't need to get 87 points.

Title Target

Man Utd WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v West Brom (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Man City WIN v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool LOSE v Man City (A) - (Actual = Won) 3pts
Tottenham WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts

Top Four Target

Man Utd WIN v Watford (A) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Chelsea WIN v Norwich (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Arsenal WINv West Brom (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Man City DRAW v Liverpool (H) - (Actual = Lost) -1pts
Liverpool LOSE v Man City (A) - (Actual = Won) 3pts
Tottenham WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts

As it stands (after week 13)

Title challenge


Man Utd -1
Man City -3
Arsenal -4
Liverpool -4
Spurs -6
Chelsea -18



Top four challenge

Man Utd +7
Man City +7
Liverpool 2
Arsenal 0
Spurs 0
Chelsea -7



Upcoming fixtures

So the reds 'difficult' run is over.  The next 7 games are all expected wins for Liverpool (if they are to be title contenders - which is, yeah, unlikely).  This Swansea game and the seventh game in the run (West Ham) away are ranked the most difficult - a win in those games would be 'better than expected' for a team chasing the top four.

15 points from the next 21 available would put Liverpool level with top four form.  Tough ask.

So not much upside but plenty of downsides for the reds until 12th January.

Let's just keep winning and hope the other teams have their own problems!

Man City v Southampton (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Man Utd v Leicester (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v Chelsea (H) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Chelsea v Spurs (A) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Swansea (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Norwich (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Week 14 Update

Good weekend for City and Liverpool.  Chelsea and Spurs play out a beneficial draw for both sides while Man Utd and Arsenal should have done better. 

Arsenal look on the slide and although they are above Liverpool in the actual table they do not seem to have taken advantage of a far easier fixture list so far.

Title Target

Man City WIN v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Man Utd WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts 
Spurs DRAW v Chelsea (H) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Chelsea DRAW v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) 0pts
Liverpool WIN v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pts
Arsenal WIN v Norwich (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts

Top Four Target

Man City DRAW v Southampton (H) - (Actual = Won) +2pts
Man Utd WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs LOSE v Chelsea (H) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Chelsea LOSE v Spurs (A) - (Actual = Draw) +1pts
Liverpool DRAW v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Won) +2pts
Arsenal WIN v Norwich (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts

As it stands (after week 14)

Title challenge


Man City -3
Man Utd -3
Liverpool -4
Arsenal -6
Spurs -6
Chelsea -18



Top four challenge

Man City +9
Man Utd +5
Liverpool +4
Spurs +1
Arsenal -2
Chelsea -6



Upcoming fixtures

Man City the only side with the opportunity to record a 'better than expected' result this weekend.  The three sides at home are all against weaker teams and both Spurs and Liverpool face one of the 8 teams a top four side should beat away.

Just like last weekend we will be hoping we do our job and others drop points.

Man City v Stoke (A) Title: DRAW / Top Four: DRAW
Arsenal v Sunderland (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v West Ham (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Spurs v West Brom (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Liverpool v Newcastle (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Chelsea v Bournemouth (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN

Out of interest JD do you know from previous years stats if the teams sitting in the positions now have went on and finished the league in that order or how close it has been?

There is a post near the top of this page where s@int asked a similar question.

Two weeks worth to catch up.  And it wasn't a spectacular two weeks.

Week 15 and 16 Update

Liverpool, Man Utd, Spurs and Chelsea suffering.  Only Arsenal clung on in with respectable results.

We will have to bring Leicester into the analysis - but for now it looks like this season won't be a record points total - at least not by any of the traditional 'big six'.

Title Target

Man City DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Sunderland (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Man Utd WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs WIN v West Brom (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Liverpool WIN v Newcastle (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Chelsea WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Man Utd WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Man City WIN v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Spurs WIN v Newcastle (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal WIN v Aston Villa (A)- (Actual = Won) 0pt
Chelsea WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Top Four Target

Man City DRAW v Stoke (A) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Arsenal WIN v Sunderland (H) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Man Utd WIN v West Ham (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Spurs WIN v West Brom (A) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Liverpool WIN v Newcastle (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Chelsea WIN v Bournemouth (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

Man Utd WIN v Bournemouth (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pt
Man City DRAW v Swansea (H) - (Actual = Lost) -1pt
Spurs WIN v Newcastle (H) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts
Liverpool WIN v West Brom (H) - (Actual = Draw) -2pts
Arsenal WIN v Aston Villa (A) - (Actual = Won) 0pt
Chelsea WIN v Leicester (A) - (Actual = Lost) -3pts

As it stands (after week 16)

Title challenge

Man City -4
Man Utd -8
Liverpool -9
Arsenal -6
Spurs -11
Chelsea -24 * Chelsea to be removed from this analysis



And without the graph extending to Chelsea




Top four challenge

Man City +7
Man Utd 0
Liverpool -1
Arsenal -2
Spurs -4
Chelsea -12



Upcoming fixtures

Last games before Christmas.

Options for some sides to get better than expected results although for Liverpool - they should beat Watford away if they aim to be in the top four.

Chelsea v Sunderland (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Man Utd v Norwich (H) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Leicester v Everton (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: DRAW
Spurs v Southampton (A) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Liverpool v Watford (A) Title: WIN / Top Four: WIN
Arsenal v Man City (H) Title: DRAW / Top Four: LOSE
Man City v Arsenal (A) Title: LOSE / Top Four: LOSE

Leicester City Analysis

Applying same rules to Leicester City

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Man U).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Liverpool, Southampton, Swansea). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (70 points)

Requirements:
Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 (Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, Liverpool, Southampton). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (Chelsea, City)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Southampton, Swansea, Stoke, Palace, Everton). Defeated at the hardest 6. (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, United, Spurs, Liverpool)

P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

Opposition - Expected results title/top four - Result - Total Pts compared to (title challenge - top four challenge)

Sunderland (H) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won 0 0
West Ham (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN  - Won  0 0
Spurs (H) EXPECTED WIN/DRAW - Draw -2 0
Bournemouth (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Draw -4 -2
Villa (H) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -4 -2
Stoke (A) EXPECTED WIN/DRAW - Draw -6 -2
Arsenal (H) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Lost -7 -3
Norwich (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -3
Southampton (A) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Draw -7 -3
Crystal Palace (H) EXPECTED WIN/DRAW - Won -7 -1 *10 games in before Leicester's first better than expected result for a top four side
West Brom (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -1
Watford (H) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -1
Newcastl (A) EXPECTED WIN/WIN - Won -7 -1
Man Utd (H) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Draw -7 -1
Swansea (A) EXPECTED DRAW/DRAW - Won -5 1 *15 games into the season before Leicester record their first better than expected result for a title winning side
Chelsea (H) EXPECTED DRAW/LOST - Won -3 4 *which they do again - admittedly against a woeful Chelsea team

Analysis

If we can ignore where they have come from and look simply at their opponents they have had a significantly easier run of games than, for example, Liverpool.  The true difference between the two clubs, based on games played, is more like 5 or 6 points.

According to these results it wasn't until game 15 that Leicester 'overtook' Liverpool in terms of results - although they have been ahead of the reds in the league table all season.

Graphs with Leicester included