What we need to do to get 4th?

I wanted to see how much we have to do in our remaining games of the season in order to gain Champions League qualification and wanted to share what I found with everyone.

Before I start I want to stress that I do not see CL qualification as a requirement under the new manager, I'm sure like many on here at the start of the season I saw it as an expectation however with the change of manager now I rather see this as an "expectation free" season where Klopp can implement his style on the squad and maybe recruit some players that might help mould it, anything we achieve this season is a bonus.

I know statistics are not everyones cup of tea so I have tried to use them as minimally as possibe where I can.

I started by looking at the last 10 seasons and the points needed to finish 1st to 6th. Over the last ten years these are the average points needed to finish in each position and the corresponding points per game needed to get to this points tally.

1st - 87.4 points per season - 2.30 points per game
2nd - 82.3 points per season - 2.17 points per game
3rd - 76.4 points per season - 2.01 points per game
4th - 71.2 points per season - 1.87 points per game
5th - 65.5 points per season - 1.72 points per game
6th - 62.3 points per season - 1.64 points per game


At this stage of the season we have played 12 games and gained 17 points this gives a points per game of 1.42.

With 26 games left to play we need to achive 54.2 points in order to reach the average points tally of the fourth placed team in the last ten years which is 71.2 i.e. 2.08 points per game.

To achieve this we need to now have the form of a team that over the course of a full  season would finish between 2nd and 3rd.

For the very optimistic on the forum to finish 3rd we would need 2.28 points per game from here out meaning we would have to have the same form of a team that you would expect to be title winners.

For me there is a number of things that can influenece whether we can acheive these points per games:

1. Fixture list - Comparing points tallies with what we should have now to finish fourth based on 1.87 points per game we are under performing by 24%. The fixture list is definitley a component of that with us getting some hard fixtures out of the way, easier fixtures from the Xmas period on might help erode that negative 24%.

2. Injuries - We have sustained a fair amount of injuries this season especially to players who were performing well and/or players who would be in the starting line up if fit. Players like Gomez, Ings, Sturridge, Henderson, Benteke, Sakho and Firminio spring to mind. Once we get everyone or the majority of players back we could improve the points per game ratio.

3. New manger - Normally when a team  is under performing and the manager is replaced, the team tends to over perform for a period  in order to revert back to its average. Klopp has been in charge 4 PL games and achieved 1 Win, 2 Draws and 1 Loss, this is the same as the previous 4 games under old mangement, with the fixtures being relatively similar. There could be a few reasons for this, the injuries sustained by players since Klopp has took charge have been substantial or Liverpool were infact not underperforming when mangement was changed. Whatever the case, I believe Klopp to be a step up and could help Liverpool increase the points per game ratio

4. Quality of the league this year - With 2.30 points per game needed to win the title, Man City currently top the table with 26 points from 12 games giving them a points per game of 2.16 just below the average and Man Utd in 4th with 24pts from 12 played giving 2.00 points per game slightly over the average, we might see a higher points total needed for 4th than usual years while a lower total might be needed to win the title, we may see the lower places being more competitve.

All in all I want to see if people on here think we can acheive the form to get 2.08 points per game and play like a 2nd or 3rd placed team for the remainder of the season?

Brilliant analysis mate, and pretty disheartening, because under the new regime and with a fully-fit squad I could see us achieving the level you say is needed.  Unfortunately, with the ever-growing list of long-term absentees its hard to imagine!

Don't lose,just win and win and we will get to 1st never mind 4th.

Get more points than the team in 5th?

I wish it was as simple as that.

Get more points than the team in 5th?

I wish it was as simple as that.

Unfortunately it's not, then we'll just finish 5th   

Unfortunately it's not, then we'll just finish 5th   

Me and you are going to fall out. 4th, I meant 4th!

Me and you are going to fall out. 4th, I meant 4th!

Haha sorry mate

Just one of those stupid logic questions that tricks people all the time, ask them where will you be if you pass the person in 2nd and most people will say first, my bad 

score more goals each game we play....preferably more than the opposition..

Haha sorry mate

Just one of those stupid logic questions that tricks people all the time, ask them where will you be if you pass the person in 2nd and most people will say first, my bad 

At the time it made perfect sense but then I read back over it as I posted it and hoped it was just me over thinking it. Obviously not though. It's been a long day.

At the time it made perfect sense but then I read back over it as I posted it and hoped it was just me over thinking it. Obviously not though. It's been a long day.

I hear ya fella, seems everyone is shattered around here, christmas coming and the change of the weather has a lot of people feeling a bit run down. A few of us, myself included, need a good old kick up the arse this time of year.

On topic though I think we actually don't need too much, but what we most certainly need is more luck in terms of staying injury free.

I know some talk about "polishing a turd" etc, but I've already explained that I don't think this bunch are that bad that they can't compete for 4th at worst. Now that is a bit of an ask for a fella coming in a few months into the new season but still I expect him to push us damn close. No matter how good you are though injuries can always scupper plans, in my view that's exactly what happened with King Kenny and that's exactly what happened with Jürgen in his final year at Dortmund. Always expectations should be tapered with the caveat that injuries can change all eventualities.

Right now I think we're on the bones of our arse in terms of personnel. One more injury and things could look more than bleak. Lucas, Skrtel, Benteke, Lovren, Moreno and Clyne we have no real cover for these positions so we're heavily reliant on them remaining injury free. As we know Jürgen likes to make the lads work until they can't work anymore but even he might think about toning down the workload a little just to preserve these lads as the second string doesn't really look up to carrying the weight.

January, I was hoping might bring a new keeper, but I think S@int may well be right a few loans could well be the order of the day just to fill the holes of an ailing squad. When fit this squad easily competes for top 4 under this boss, but right now I think we're a little in the hands of lady luck and we deserve a little of her grace in my opinion.

Things will look better in December, All of the Injuries apart from the season ling (Ings & Gomez) will be sorted and fit raring to go.

We can do it, remember how everybody talked about our tough away fixture list, that's I nearly over, klopp has this wee mini break to work with a lot of players and get more settled into the club.

I forsee a good xmas period.

Well, we have the worst shot conversion rate in the league. We are slumped in 20th position with a 10.48% conversion shot rate.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/row-zed/man-united-premier-leagues-best-6803702

So, while the usual's single out our goalkeeper's performance after a crap result, as usual their POV is misguided. We haven't scored nearly enough goals, 14 in return for 12 games played isn't good enough. This makes us joint 13th highest scorers in the league, alongside relegation fodder Sunderland and Newcastle.

Yes, injuries have played their part granted. But facts are facts, and the likes of Firmino, Lallana, Milner, Can, Ibe and Coutinho to a lesser extent need to step up their own conversion rates. It hasn't been good enough collectively in this department, and on that front they're letting the team down more than our goalkeeper.

Buy three players.  Spine of the team. Goalie / DM / CF.

Cut out the school boy errors at the back and we might have a chance.

This thread - http://www.lfcreds.com/reds/index.php/topic,48019.0.html may be well worth a read as to where we are - currently -1 behind a top 4 schedule.

Start scoring more goals than we concede in games.

We need to teach or much more likely buy some players who know how to score a F***ing goal. Also if we could teach our players how to play a set-piece then that would be just marvellous. Come on Klopp, you must have realised by now that the lads have had F**k all coaching for close to 3 years so lets start with the basics.

Stop conceding silly bloody goals, keep our strikers fit, and start banging them in at the other end. Although easier said than done !

Finishing top 4 is do-able but we need to start winning games. I know that's a 'No sh*t Sherlock' type comment but games like Sunday where we expect to win we can't afford to drop any more points in.

As mentioned above, the tough away start is almost over. We've played United, Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea, Spurs and very shortly City all away from home. Later on in the season when we have an almost fit squad available then I'd expect to win at least four of those games when they come to Anfield.

The Xmas fixture list has been very kind to us and we should be making ground up then too. While some of the big boys play each other and drop points we don't. All of our games you would expect us to win. We should be going on a 5 or 6 match winning streak here.

In terms of changing the team around then the only decision I would make for now is take Mignolet out. He has got to be the worst keeper in the league. He is certainly the worst keeper out of those with ambition to qualify for the champions league. So I'd go for Bogdan. If any half decent keeper is available in January then Klopp must bring him in.

We also need pace and width which we don't have. If a couple of wingers are available in January then Klopp needs to bring these in too. I just hope we don't spend money for the sake of it and panic buy.

It was a ridiculous decision by Brendan/The board to let Markovic go out on loan after selling Raheem. Two quick wide men gone and a big static centre forward brought in who has been injured half the time - not much of a surprise when you look at his problems over the years.  Markovic hasn't set the world alight yet in a red shirt but I saw enough of him at Benfica to strongly state he is a very good player and he will shine under Klopp that I'm sure. Can't wait to see him play in his proper position rather than wing back.

Only other thing perhaps is when we play away in he Europa league maybe send the kids out instead. Did we benefit much sending our full strength side out to Russia? Not in my opinion. We won the game yes but I'd be able to pick an 11 now that could have started that game that I think would have come away with 3 points. I would have then started a completely different 11 against Palace and gone into the game feeling fresh. Would we have beaten Palace then? Who knows. But I think so.

Take every game as it comes!

Well, we have the worst shot conversion rate in the league. We are slumped in 20th position with a 10.48% conversion shot rate.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/row-zed/man-united-premier-leagues-best-6803702

So, while the usual's single out our goalkeeper's performance after a crap result, as usual their POV is misguided. We haven't scored nearly enough goals, 14 in return for 12 games played isn't good enough. This makes us joint 13th highest scorers in the league, alongside relegation fodder Sunderland and Newcastle.

Yes, injuries have played their part granted. But facts are facts, and the likes of Firmino, Lallana, Milner, Can, Ibe and Coutinho to a lesser extent need to step up their own conversion rates. It hasn't been good enough collectively in this department, and on that front they're letting the team down more than our goalkeeper.

Agreed.

this as well as cutting out the silly mistakes that are leading to us letting goals in.

It is getting better though, slowly slowly.

Cant wait to see Klopp with a full season under his belt and a full squad to choose from.

If we don't make top 4 this season heyho, we have changed managers and had a nightmare season with injuries, so it will be no shame if we don't get it.

What I do expect is decent cup runs, this can be achieved as its less games, and most of the time its lesser teams.