In some ways I think it is a positive to have a game so soon after the poor performance at the weekend, it gives us a chance to correct mistakes and stop dwelling on what happened at Turf Moor, which in turn allows us to focus on more positively on Spurs at the weekend. All of this is said with the exact same tone and expectation that I used in the Burnley pre match thread so naturally I am going to add plenty of caution here too. We have a chance to right wrongs here, but that is not to be taken for granted, we need to earn the right to play and deal with these professionally otherwise one bad day at the office becomes exaggerated unnecessarily, see 12 months ago.
Burton secured automatic promotion from League 1 last season by just a point, but have already shown they won't be going back down without a fight with late goals being something of a speciality for them in the early parts of the season. And to really paint the underdog picture for you Burton have spent a total of âŹ358 thousand this summer. And that was on one player with the other 8 additions to the squad being a mixture of free transfers, loans and promotion from their youth team. And by all accounts they're not exactly in disarray, although in 18th they have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2. Those matches being;
4-3 loss to Nottingham Forrest (including a 90th minute goal for Albion),
2-1 loss to Bristol City (Equalising in the 88th min before conceding in the 95th)
An impressive 3-1 win over Sheffield Wednesday, who are one of the favourites for promotion this year after being knocked out in last seasons play offs
2-2 draw with Blackburn (Again equalising in the 88th minute)
And that is just in the league, in the first round of this competition they beat Bury 3-2 after extra time, scoring twice in extra time!
Say what you will but it is plainly obvious that these lads are grafters, and with 5 games of competitive football under their belt it's not enough to simply say we're fitter and better than them. As MsG says above, Nigel Clough is managing Burton and he seems to have them lining up in a 5-3-2 or 3-5-2 depending on what's called for. Upon saying that I can't imagine Clough didn't take heart from Burnley on Saturday and I fully expect a 5-3-2, sitting deep, tough to break down and happy to forfeit possession. They have played the same 11 in the last two games although Clough says that he will be making changes with a home match against Derby coming up on Friday, one that Clough admits is more important with the league points at stake. That added to the fact that their captain John Mousinho came off injured against Blackburn at the weekend. I think they have a very small squad (18/19 players), so there won't be wholesale changes, but I will try to guess at the lineup.
From my very limited knowledge of them I think that the introduction of McCrory, Flanagan, Chodhury and Beavon is about as many changes as Clough can afford and still feel he has a chance. From what I can see Irvine and Naylor are their goal threats with Palmer and Akins always dangerous in supply and attack. And the likes of Dyer as a wing back will be a threat in a counter, all they're looking for is one chance (we gave Burnley two), they're quick up the wings and dangerous from set pieces (I can hear the groans from everyone reading that), but they're not without their flaws. In their five games they have scored 12 goals but also conceded 11, just like us they don't seem to have a 0-0 in them!
The biggest issue I see with what they have done so far and what we have done so far is I don't see where we get the space to play. Even when they counter I don't see that back three moving from their box, the full backs might take a chance but the back three and possibly Irvine won't commit unless they get a threatening set piece (the groans again...). So for us to avoid a repeat of Saturday we need to draw them out, and at the same time be ready to use the spaces. I think we did try that against Burnley, namely Lallana in the opening 20 mins, but I think we need a different approach. Don't look to get in behind with sick play, when the gap opens attack the space, attack the ball, ie. get big fuckers to knock the ball in. So for that I think we need some height and physicality, making this the ideal debut for Matip and Grujic, and a nice reintroduction for Can and Origi, possibly even Stewart.
Obviously brute force and ignorance alone won't win this for us so that will need to be tempered with some guile and quick play to draw them out. Where the likes of Lallana in an attacking position and either Coutinho or Firmino if they play smarter than they did on Saturday. And its also a good chance for the likes of Brannagan and Ejaria to get a go against older, tougher opposition and prove their worth.
For me, I would like to see:
With a bench of Manninger, Moreno, Klavan, Hendrson, Brannagan, Ejaria, Ings
I think that is a fair mix of flair and direct players. It at least gives us the chance to make something of our crosses, as well as having the players there to get the ball down and play it when necessary. While I'm not too overjoyed at the idea of Coutinho on the left again myself, the fact is that the manager clearly see's it as a role for him. If we can minimise the 30 yard pot shots (not eradicate them all together, because they can be quite good!) and use his skill and his reading of the game to draw them out. He is potentially going to be the best player on the pitch, they are going to double up on him the second he threatens, which means he's taking players out of the game. He can't keep looking to cut in on his right and get a shot away, it's too predictable and they'll be happy to let him to do it. His most important job is to do exactly what they don't want him to, run at them, turn them, pull them out, make them nervous, make them second guess and that hesitation is when we get space in the box.
Space for Origi, who thrives on running into that space, and for Grujic, who has shown early signs that he can be useful arriving late. It could also be to the benefit of forgotten man, Wijnaldum, we've seen what he can do (unfortunately not for us yet) but a more direct style in this type of game should suit him more than what we tried on Saturday.
Can comes in as our engine for this one, and with a bit of needle that we desperately lacked on Saturday. Cutting passes, aggressive runs and no nonsense tackles will be needed, step up Emre.
I think most people are expecting Matip to get a run out after he's been on the bench for the last two games and with the widely accepted idea that he is here as a first choice center half then the sooner the better to get combining with Lovren. This should provide the perfect opportunity for that, and I think we will need a big lad to clear out their crosses and maybe even knock in one of our own. And while I don't see a huge future for Randall at LFC, Clyne can't play every minute of every game and if Trent Alexander Arnold is to be a future midfielder then maybe we're better off letting him focus on that. Migs picks himself as I think this was always due to be his type of game, I don't think Manninger is here to play, I think he's more likely here for what he brings to the training ground. And while I doubt it will be popular I would go for Milner at LB again, solely because I think our best chances will be from whipping the ball into the box as I don't see where we get 30 yards for Moreno to burst into.
If we can show solidity behind and hurt these early then this should be a professional performance. But we've learned where complacency gets us, and these will be up for it and they are a threat, write them off at our own peril. The longer we go without scoring the more frustrating it will become, so a first half goal will be important to us I feel. Get that and they have to come out and we have some room to play and something to build on. I do worry that these lads have a goal in them and they have proven that they play until the final whistle! All going to plan I'm going for a 3-1 win for the Reds, Origi, Can and Lallana
