Very nearly started a topic on this, Clint beat me to it!
Back on our travels again this week in the EFL Cup, our 6th away game out of the last 7. I've stated previously in the EFL Cup thread that this competition is one one that a lot of clubs will be taking seriously and I expect we will be no exception, the starting XI v Burton suggests as much. While Derby are struggling in the Championship at the moment, they will be looking to take a scalp here, we've fallen for this trap many times before, so while we have every right to go into this with a lot of confidence, professionalism is needed moreso than caution.
As I said Derby are in trouble in the Championship, after missing out on promotion through the play offs last season they have been very slow to start this season, 1 win and 3 draws in 8 games, with just two league goals scored in those 8 games (a further two goals in the League Cup so far). They are not completely falling apart at the back, conceding 7 in those 8 games including 2 against Newcastle and Barnsley (two teams very much expected to go up). Nigel Pearson came in thsi summer expected to be the man to help them make the next step and get promotion to the Premier League, and whilst that hasn't started off very well I find it tough to believe that a team that came within a whisker of promotion just a few months ago are relegation candidates!? They will kick off again, we just have to make sure it's not against us.
They were quite expansive and free flowing in a 4-3-3 last season, however Pearson has tried to bring in solidity using a standard 4-4-2 mostly, his only variants being a 4-1-4-1 (a win against Preston) and a 4-4-1-1 (a loss against Burton, and a draw against Villa). Personally I expect him to use a 4-1-4-1 against us, to try and cut out the space for our midfield three to pull the strings.
They have been relatively consistent in their back 5, however he hasn't completely settled on his LB, Olsson and Forsyth are both similarly experienced, Olsson with a season in the Premier League with Blackburn though. It will be a big call for Pearson with either one of the potentially charged with keeping Mane under wraps.
For that exact reason I expect them to use a holding mid fielder, Hughes has been used there this season and I would expect him to take up that role here. The rough diamond of Derby for the past few years, and still only 21. He missed 6 months last season due to injury and it looks like he's being brought back in a more reserved role. Before the injury I would have expected him to be in attack, creating and running. It will be interesting to see if he has the vision to influence the game from a deep role. The remaining two central midfielders pick themselves, both Butterfield and Bryson have been regular starters for Pearson although neither seem to be influencing the game too much from what I can see. Out wide I expect Anya to start again, he has recently been introduced to the side and his goal against Bristol yesterday will stand to him. On the right I expect to see Tom Ince, one of the "One's that got away". I was gutted when we let him go, but that decision is looking shrewd as he hasn't kicked on the way I expected him to. I'm sure he'll feel like he has a point to prove, and I believe the talent is there, may be one to watch. 12 goals last season and 11 the season before show that when Derby are up and running he is a threat!
I find it tough to see who will start up top for Derby. Whilst Darren Bent has featured in every league game for them, he has only started twice. Pearson preferring to start with two up top but not with any consistency. I'm not sure if any of Camara, Wilson, Blackman or Vydra can play as a lone striker, so as far as I can see Bent would be the option. His Premier League experience has to be an asset for him too. Although his goal return has been dreadful since 2010! Pearson has to make the call and decide if they are more interested in keeping us out, or getting goals themselves.
As for the mighty reds (not that F***ing bird!) I do expect Jürgen to make changes here. Not so much in terms of resting anyone, but moreso to give others the opportunity to prove themselves. Like I said earlier though I don't expect a team of kids, I expect a similar strength team to the one we took to Burton.
I see this being the game that Karius gets the nod in. He didn't buy the lad to sit on the bench, Karius himself has told us that. The injury was unfortunate, and without Mignolet making a huge F**k up you can't just drop him on the spot and expect everything to be rosey. A solid game from Karius here and he stays in the team for what is a nice run of games coming up to bed him in.
I don't expect any changes to the back four. We don't exactly have many options at RB so Clyne is in, I see no reason why Lovren and Matip need a break, another game only helps develop their relationship, as well as start one with Karius. And whilst I wouldn't be surprised to see Moreno start I think at home to Hull is a better situation for him than another away and possibly against a tricky player in Ince. Milner, slots in so nicely with our midfield play and is defensively sound, I see no reason to change that.
I see a few changes in the midfield for us. I think Can has been held off for a game like this, and whilst I don't see him getting the 90 mins, I think he'll get at least 45 mins. We seem much better at managing players injuries as of late and I think Can was technically "fit" for Chelsea, but the intensity of that game would have been taking a risk with him. Grujic himself has said that this season is about learning and next season is when he shows what he can do. A game like this is perfect for that learning curve, if Derby go with that 5 in midfield it will be tight for room to play, the small bit we've seen of Grujic has shown that he has the intelligence and the feet to work in that situation. I would also play Wijnaldum in there with them, he has improved with every game and there's no need to halt that progression. I like the way Wijnaldum and Grujic (in the bit we have seen) arrive late in the box, and in a game like this where I imagine we will have them pinned back quite a bit, that could be a defining factor.
Up top, I think Origi needs games to get that sharpness back and against Keogh and Shackell you have to back him to have an impact. I think the same can be said of Coutinho, and if he can keep his head and limit the pot shots he will get time and space against these. If Firmino couldn't make the bench against Chelsea then I can't see him featuring here unless absolutely necessary. I would play Mane on the right again, there are footballing reasons but mainly because I just love watching the lad!
That and the fact they they will feel the need to double up on him if they're not sure on their LB, which should create plenty of space for everyone to use to our advantage.
Whilst I am aware that no game can be taken for granted, the bare facts are there, our form against theirs, our style against theirs, our lads against theirs. We are more than capable of beating these and I will be disappointed with anything less. Play our football and they can't deal with it... who can!? I see no goal threat from them either, so we need to start picking up clean sheets! I am going for 3-0 to the reds, Origi, Wijnaldum and Coutinho.
Come On You Reds, the way we're playing in London I fancy a trip to Wembley!
EDIT: Had Mignolet in my team graphic, old habits die hard
