LFC League Season Analysis - 2016/17

Liverpool have had a more difficult start to the season in terms of quality of opponents and their respective finishing positions last year in the league.

Similar to last years thread this topic applies the same rules to all the Premier League clubs to give an indication of what is a good result and what is a poor result - and to analyse how well each team is doing based on who they have played.

Two season ago Chelsea won the title with the exact number of wins, draws and defeats that we have always used in our prediction method.

The following information depicts the 'easiest route' to achieve the points target.  Fixtures illustrated relate of course to Liverpool.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Last seasons top 4).
Win your 11 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (For us, last seasons 4th to 9th) . Defeated at your hardest 3 (Top 3).

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

A current score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for the title - below that suggests you are outside title form.

Top Four Target (70 points)

Requirements:
Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 . Defeated by hardest 2 teams
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5. Defeated at the hardest 6.

P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

A score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for a top 4 spot - below that suggests you are outside top 4 form.


Story so far - Title Race

As this thread has started a little later this year let's summarise.

There have been 10 games played. In the Premier League City, Arsenal and Liverpool are currently level on points.  The stats currently indicate that Liverpool have had the best start based on who they have played and are doing 1 point better than Man City.

Man City - 'unexpected' results so far

Beating Stoke and Man Utd away were better than expected.
Drawing at home to Everton and Southampton were worse than expected.

Overall score = 0.

Arsenal - 'unexpected' results so far

Losing at home to Liverpool, drawing at home to Boro - worse than expected.
Drawing away at Leicester - marginally better than expected.

Overall score = -4.

Liverpool - 'unexpected' results so far

Beating Arsenal, a point at Spurs, beating Leicester all better than expected.
Losing to Burnley and drawing against Man Utd worse than expected.

Overall score = +1.

Spurs - 'unexpected' results so far

Drawing away at Everton, drawing against Liverpool at home, drawing at West Brom and Bournemouth - worse than expected.

Beating Stoke away and Man City at home - better than expected.

Overall score = -4.

Man Utd - 'unexpected' results so far

Losing to City, Watford, Chelsea and drawing against Stoke and Burnley worse than expected.
Beating Leicester better than expected.

Overall score = -9.

As it stands (after week 10)

Title challenge

Liverpool +1
Man City 0
Chelsea -1
Arsenal -4
Spurs -4
Southampton -5
Man Utd-9
Leicester -9
...
Sunderland and Hull -17
West Ham -18



Top four challenge

Liverpool 8
Man City 7
Chelsea 7
Spurs 1
Arsenal 0
Southampton -2
Leicester -3
Man Utd -4
...
Sunderland -12
Hull -13

Fab stats those JD.

Its been a while since we've been looking this good.

Thanks for doing this and keeping us all updated .

Initial post amended - Chelsea game added.

Liverpool marginally ahead of Man City and Chelsea.  Arsenal's current Premier League position is possibly not as impressive as it may suggest - 9 out of their 10 they should have won according to the rankings of game difficulty (27 points - they have 23 points).  Compare that to Liverpool - we've had 7 winnable games and 1 drawable (22 points - we have 23 points).

In terms of a top four challenge  - an expected points haul for LFC was 15 points from the opening 10 games and Arsenal should have got 23 points.  Both teams have 23 points.

Some other teams who according to these stats are in falsely inflated league positions.

Everton are currently 6th on 18 points - they've had an easy start - they should be on 26 points if they were going for the title and 23 for a top four spot.

Watford are currently 7th on 15 points - in the unlikely world they were aiming for the title they should have collected 24 points.

The team that has had the easiest start to the season is West Ham - and they haven't done very well so they must have a tricky set of games in the next 9.

Update after Week 11

Still looking good for the mighty reds.  The Actual League Table finally reflects Liverpool's solid start to the season.

Title Race

Man City had a bad result drawing at home to Boro (-2)
Spurs had a good result getting a draw at Arsenal (+1)
Southampton (who had a great start up until two games ago) should have won today - not lost (-3pts)
All the rest, including us, got expected results

Title Target

Liverpool +1 pts
-----------
Chelsea -1
Man City -2
Spurs -3
Arsenal -4
Southampton -8
Man Utd -9



Top Four Race

Man City and Southampton with the bad results.
Man Utd's win, both Arsenal and Spurs getting a point were good results.
No change for Liverpool and Chelsea - wins were expected and landed.

Top Four Target

Liverpool +8 pts
Chelsea 7pts
Man City 5pts
Spurs 2pts
Arsenal 1pts
--------
Man Utd -2pts
Southampton -5pts

My brain hurts

Update after Week 12

Time to drop Southampton out of our analysis.  In terms of a title run - all the clubs got 'expected' results.  So no change.

Title Target

Liverpool +1 pts
-----------
Chelsea -1
Man City -2
Spurs -3
Arsenal -4
Man Utd -9



In terms of hunting down the top four there was a little bit more movement.

Liverpool's draw away at last season's 6th placed side is classified as a good result - worth a point.   As it was for both Arsenal and United (+1).  Spurs had the best result for a team going for the top four.  They get an extra 2 points.

Top Four Target

Liverpool +9 pts
Chelsea 7pts
Man City 5pts
Spurs 4pts
Arsenal 2pts
--------
Man Utd -1pts

Update after Week 12

Time to drop Southampton out of our analysis.  In terms of a title run - all the clubs got 'expected' results.  So no change.

Title Target

Liverpool +1 pts
-----------
Chelsea -1
Man City -2
Spurs -3
Arsenal -4
Man Utd -9



In terms of hunting down the top four there was a little bit more movement.

Liverpool's draw away at last season's 6th placed side is classified as a good result - worth a point.   As it was for both Arsenal and United (+1).  Spurs had the best result for a team going for the top four.  They get an extra 2 points.

Top Four Target

Liverpool +9 pts
Chelsea 7pts
Man City 5pts
Spurs 4pts
Arsenal 2pts
--------
Man Utd -1pts

Thanks for that appreciate the effort you put into the analysis. It's looking good

What a difference a year makes
LFC have one 9 more points this season than the same fixtures last season, laying bare the extent of their improvement under Jürgen Klopp.
Klopp's side have lost only one game all season and are unbeaten in 13 games in all competitions, a run which stretches back to mid-August.
read more:

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/proof-Jürgen-klopps-liverpool-improving-12206619

Okay.. let's do this then...

Update after Week 14

Story of the last two weeks is two 'better than expected' results for Chelsea.  Beating Spurs at home and City away were 4 points better than even a title-chasing team required and 5 points better than expected from a top four team. 

Liverpool's result over Sunderland standard - the defeat at Bournemouth was a definite case of 3 points dropped.

Man Utd's 2 draws against West Ham and Everton were garbage for a title chasing team (-4 points) but acceptable for a top four chase (0 points).


Title Target

Chelsea +3
-----------
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -2
Man City -5
Spurs -6
Man Utd -13



In terms of hunting down the top four there was a little bit more movement.

Liverpool's draw away at last season's 6th placed side is classified as a good result - worth a point.   As it was for both Arsenal and United (+1).  Spurs had the best result for a team going for the top four.  They get an extra 2 points.

Top Four Target

Chelsea 12pts
Liverpool 6pts
Arsenal 5pts
Spurs 3pts
Man City 2pts
--------
Man Utd -1pts



MatchDay 15 Games - Expected results

Title (Top Four)

CHELSEA v West Brom Win (Win)
ARSENAL v Stoke Win (Win)
LIVERPOOL v West Ham Win (Draw)
Leicester v MAN CITY Lose (Lose)
Man Utd v SPURS Draw (Lose)
MAN UTD v Spurs Draw (Draw)

Sorry guys.. Christmas etc!

So 6 games played out since the last update in the League. And...

Title Target

Chelsea have not moved by a point - all 6 of their recent results were what our prediction expected from title chasers (5 expected wins and 1 defeat).
Man City and Spurs have done better than expected by a point - the reds worse by 2 points.  United the most improved and Arsenal, quite frankly, should be doing much better.

Chelsea +3
Liverpool -4
Man City -4
Spurs -5
Arsenal -7
Man Utd -9




Top Four Target

All 6 teams 'above' target in the race for top four.  Arsenal the most interesting here - they are doing worse than the Manchester clubs based on how they should have been doing.  Man Utd v Man City, as it stands, is the fight for 4th.

Chelsea +12
Liverpool +8
Spurs +6
Man City +4
Man Utd +4
Arsenal +2



Obviously the next big clash is the United - Liverpool game and there is more for our reds to get out of it.

Man Utd would be expected to beat us as a title chaser and get a draw if they are aiming for the top four.

For Liverpool a draw would be an expected result for a title chasing side and a defeat is forecast even for the top four chase - so a big upside if we get the result.

For Liverpool a draw would be an expected result for a title chasing side

Match Weekend 21

Chelsea get the best result of the weekend - traditionally beating the Champions away is one of the harder fixtures. It may have been rendered an anomaly this year but all the teams are judged the same so opportunities for all at Leicester.

Liverpool edge slightly ahead of Spurs in terms of top four - a draw away at OT being a good result for top four qualification.  Man City are 7 points away from title form, a fact made to look worse by the fact that Chelsea are 6 points ahead of it at present.

Title Target

Big gap opening up now for Chelsea who look to be marching away with it.  We have the gap at more like 10 points at the moment.  Liverpool and Spurs are level in the actual table but we have the reds as marginally ahead based on opposition faced so far.

Basically only Chelsea look to be heading towards (and passing through) 87 points.

Chelsea +6
Liverpool -4
Spurs -5
Arsenal -7
Man City -7
Man Utd -11



Top Four Target

Still 6 teams looking competitive for the top four.  Liverpool well placed - Arsenal, United and City all separated by a point with City looking the least likely at the minute.

Chelsea +15
Liverpool +9
Spurs +6
Arsenal +4
Man Utd +4
Man City +3

We are 10th when it comes to the top half of the table vrs the bottom half of the table - away. From home we are ok.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2016-2017/versus-bottom-half/away

Update 3rd April 2017



Title

Chelsea have had two good results and two bad results since matchday 21 and haven't pushed on at the rate they were doing earlier in the season.  Steady as she goes.

The gap in the Premier League might be down to 7 points but there isn't anything for Chelsea to worry about because our gap has it greater - 12 point effective lead.  Spurs have got worse since matchday 21.

According to our table, Chelsea have been the only the Premier League side with title form since matchday 14.



Top four

The 6 we had involved are now down to 5.  Arsenal have dropped out of contention.  The Premier League gap between Man Utd and Arsenal is two points.  Based on games played this is more like 5 points.

Liverpool, bar two recent matchdays, have generally been genuine top 4 contenders all season long.  Still looking that way. 

Man United's slow and steady improvement came off the rails at matchday 25 and they've had 2 bad results in the last 3 games.

This week

Liverpool and Man United both expected to beat Bournemouth and Everton at home.  No potential ups - only downs.

Spurs, City and Arsenal can all gain points in the top four chart if they do better than a draw. (v Swansea (A), Chelsea (A) and West Ham (H)).

Update 11th April 2017

Title

Think Chelsea might win it!  They've been the only team in contention since matchday 14. Prediction for Chelsea of between 89 and 94 points.



Top Four

And then there were four.. Just four teams now on course for finishing in the top four.  Arsenal falling away, Man United's draw against Everton sent them below the target line.

Update 18th April 2017

Not much change after the Easter weekend.  Man City draw level with Liverpool in the game v game results.  The 4 point gap in the actual Premier League between Spurs and Chelsea is not matched by the 13 point gap shown here. We shall see..!



Title

Spurs have been extremely steady in the past few months.  In their last 14 games they have had just 1 better than expected result and 2 worse than expected results.  The other 11 have all matched our prediction.

Chelsea have had 4 better than expected results, 2 worse and 8 expected in the same time.




Top Four

Update 2nd May

Crystal Palace result obviously not clever - that result effectively ended the reds good chance of finishing 2nd.  Last night's win expected. Liverpool still strong for a top 4 finish, but Manchester City have the narrowest of margins in the race.

Title

Spurs got their first 'better than expected' result in a long while but Chelsea have an effective 11 point lead.



Top 4

Liverpool appear to have a comfortable lead over Man Utd but Man City have the narrowest lead over us.  They are 4 points (with 1 game in hand) behind us in the actual league table.

Update 9th May 2017

Title

Graph has been predicting an 8-12 point win by Chelsea since the start of December and with 3 games left they have a 7 point lead.



Top Four

Arsenal have been pretty close to Man Utd all season and the weekends result means they edge ahead of United although Liverpool have still had the better results so far.

Big concern with Arsenal in this run in compared to Man Utd is that Arsenal have shown themselves capable of getting 'better than expected' results (3 in the last 8 ).  United have had just two 'better than expected' results in the past 15 games.



West Ham away is down for 1 point for the reds, so this is our last chance this season to get a better than expected result.

Update 9th May 2017

Title

Graph has been predicting an 8-12 point win by Chelsea since the start of December and with 3 games left they have a 7 point lead.



Top Four

Arsenal have been pretty close to Man Utd all season and the weekends result means they edge ahead of United although Liverpool have still had the better results so far.

Big concern with Arsenal in this run in compared to Man Utd is that Arsenal have shown themselves capable of getting 'better than expected' results (3 in the last .  United have had just two 'better than expected' results in the past 15 games.



West Ham away is down for 1 point for the reds, so this is our last chance this season to get a better than expected result.

Well done JD, great work throughout the season, I for one really appreciate the effort and time you have put in, looking back over your graphs paints a picture of our progress /form,  from start to finish,

Fair play Sir, and thankyou.

YNWA

Well done JD, great work throughout the season, I for one really appreciate the effort and time you have put in, looking back over your graphs paints a picture of our progress /form,  from start to finish,

Fair play Sir, and thankyou.

YNWA

I'll second that Billy.

Takes time to do this and it really is appreciated .

Thanks J.D.

Final Analysis

Well, I'm pleased with how this worked out (the analysis - not the actual table!)

From matchday 14 there's only been one team showing title form.  At matchday 21 the reds already had a hill to climb but with 14 games of the season left any outside chance had gone.

In a typical season then the reds ended up 11 points away from title winning form.  That's like turning one defeat into a win and 4 draws into wins.

As for the top four, Liverpool were always comfortably placed - the only problem was that it was so competitive this year - although only because of a late surge from Arsenal. They must have had the highest Premier League points total of a 5th placed team surely? 

Title



Top Four