League Season Analysis - 2011/12

Just waiting on tomorrow's Spurs game but couldn't resist posting an update.

Updated 21st November 2011

Great weekend for Liverpool. Good weekend for Spurs, and a bad weekend for Chelsea.  All other games went with expectations.

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should beat Norwich (A) 0
Man City should beat Newcastle (H) 0
Newcastle should lose against City (A) 0
Man Utd should beat Swansea (A) 0
Chelsea should beat Liverpool (H) -3
Liverpool should lose against Chelsea (A) +3
Tottenham should beat Villa (H) 0

Aiming for the Top Four

Arsenal should beat Norwich (A) 0
Man City should beat Newcastle (H) 0
Newcastle should lose against City (A) 0
Man Utd should beat Swansea (A) 0
Chelsea should draw against Liverpool (H) -1
Liverpool should lose against Chelsea (A) +3
Tottenham should draw against Villa (H) +2

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man City +5
Man Utd +5
Spurs +1
Liverpool -3
Arsenal -6
Newcastle -6
Chelsea -9



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +8
Newcastle +4
Liverpool +3
Chelsea -1
Arsenal -1



In the current Premier League table, the reds may be locked on the same points as Arsenal and Chelsea, but according to game difficulty the reds have done better than their London rivals and opened up a small gap.  Spurs however, have done even better than the actual 3 point gap suggests - and there is little to separate the reds and Newcastle's form.

Up Next (w/end of 26th November)

Biggest opportunities in the next set of games are for Newcastle, Man City, Liverpool and Spurs.  The other three teams are all expected to pick up 3 points.

Aiming for the Title

Chelsea should beat Wolves (H)
Man Utd should beat Newcastle (H)
Newcastle should lose at Man Utd (A)
Spurs should beat West Brom (A)
Arsenal should beat Fulham (H)
Liverpool should draw against Man City (H)
Man City should draw against Liverpool (A)

Aiming for the Top Four

Chelsea should beat Wolves (H)
Man Utd should beat Newcastle (H)
Newcastle should lose at Man Utd (A)
Spurs should draw against West Brom (A)
Arsenal should draw against Fulham (H)
Liverpool should draw against Man City (H)
Man City should lose against Liverpool (A)

I think this is an excellent way of keeping track of our progress but I have a question JD.

When you say for example, Liverpool need to beat Norwich at home to be in contention for the title or 4th spot and we draw, does this affect or change what needs to happen in another game.

Ie, if we had beaten Norwich then we could afford to draw away to Sunderland for example but because we only drew we now need to beat Sunderland away to keep up with what is needed to get 4th?

If you can make sense of what I'm saying

Thanks alot JD, I really appreciate all the hard work you're doing here..

I think this is an excellent way of keeping track of our progress but I have a question JD.

When you say for example, Liverpool need to beat Norwich at home to be in contention for the title or 4th spot and we draw, does this affect or change what needs to happen in another game.

Ie, if we had beaten Norwich then we could afford to draw away to Sunderland for example but because we only drew we now need to beat Sunderland away to keep up with what is needed to get 4th?

If you can make sense of what I'm saying

That is why there is a + or - score next to each team, any plus score means that team is exceeding expectations, and a minus score means they are under performing. I hope that makes sense.

That is why there is a + or - score next to each team, any plus score means that team is exceeding expectations, and a minus score means they are under performing. I hope that makes sense.

Correct.  So far we are underperforming by 3 points (-3) to title form (in an 87 point season) and overperforming by 3 points (+3) for a top four finish (in a 68 point to qualify season).

As we have played a third of the season, if we were to continue exactly in this manner then we would be -9 off title form (suggests 78 points) and +9 of a top four finish (suggests 77 points). 

The main purpose of it was to compare how difficult a set of games each team has played and apply the same rules to them all.

So although in the league table we are on the same points as Chelsea and Arsenal, we have had a tougher set of games to get those points so we are rewarded for it by being ahead of them.  Likewise in the league table we are 3 points behind Spurs, but they have had a tougher set of games than us so are more than 3pts ahead of us.

The most interesting part so far probably refers to both Manchester clubs - although City have a 5 point lead, this is wiped out in our table because they have had such an easy opening set of fixtures compared to their rivals.

There are other ways to monitor how well teams are doing.

If you look at the title graph you can see Chelsea have not had a single 'great' result (ie. outperforming expectation).  They have had 4 poor results and 8 average ones.

Liverpool have had 5 poor results, but this has been corrected by 3 great results.

Thank you JD for providing a much more eloquent answer!

This thread is a great idea, cheers

Great work JD

Excellent job you are doing JD.

Just like to hop in with another pat on the back, great work JD thanks, very interesting read.

Updated 27th November 2011

Some ups and some downs in an interesting weekend of games.

Aiming for the Title

Chelsea should beat Wolves (H) 0
Man Utd should beat Newcastle (H) -2
Newcastle should lose at Man Utd (A) +1
Spurs should beat West Brom (A) 0
Arsenal should beat Fulham (H) -2
Liverpool should draw against Man City (H) 0
Man City should draw against Liverpool (A) 0

Aiming for the Top Four

Chelsea should beat Wolves (H) 0
Man Utd should beat Newcastle (H) -2
Newcastle should lose at Man Utd (A) +1
Spurs should draw against West Brom (A) +2
Arsenal should draw against Fulham (H) 0
Liverpool should draw against Man City (H) 0
Man City should lose against Liverpool (A) +1

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man City +5
Man Utd +3
Spurs +1
Liverpool -3
Newcastle -5
Arsenal -8
Chelsea -9



Performance challenging for the top four

Man City +11
Spurs +10
Man Utd +9
Newcastle +5
Liverpool +3
Chelsea -1
Arsenal -1



Spurs applying the pressure to Man Utd, and Liverpool, although slightly below Chelsea in the league table, are performing far better than both Arsenal and Chelsea so far in terms of game difficulty.

Up Next (w/end of 3rd December)

Biggest opportunities in the next set of games are for Newcastle, Liverpool and Man United.

Aiming for the Title

Newcastle should draw against Chelsea (H)
Chelsea should beat Newcastle (A)
Man City should beat Norwich (H)
Spurs should beat Bolton (H)
Man Utd should draw at Villa (A)
Liverpool should draw at Fulham (A)
Arsenal should beat Wigan (A)

Aiming for the Top Four

Newcastle should lose against Chelsea (H)
Chelsea should draw at Newcastle (A)
Man City should beat Norwich (H)
Spurs should beat Bolton (H)
Man Utd should draw at Villa (A)
Liverpool should draw at Fulham (A)
Arsenal should beat Wigan (A)

Updated 5th December 2011

Not the best of weekends - lets hope it's the exception not the rule this month.  Liverpool and Newcastle both lose.  Only saving grace for Liverpool was that we only were expected to achieve a draw so it's a 1-point reverse as opposed to the full three.

Aiming for the Title

Newcastle should draw against Chelsea (H) -1
Chelsea should beat Newcastle (A) 0
Man City should beat Norwich (H) 0
Spurs should beat Bolton (H) 0
Man Utd should draw at Villa (A) +2
Liverpool should draw at Fulham (A) -1
Arsenal should beat Wigan (A) 0

Aiming for the Top Four

Newcastle should lose against Chelsea (H) 0
Chelsea should draw at Newcastle (A) +2
Man City should beat Norwich (H) 0
Spurs should beat Bolton (H) 0
Man Utd should draw at Villa (A) +2
Liverpool should draw at Fulham (A) -1
Arsenal should beat Wigan (A) 0

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man City +5
Man Utd +5
Spurs +1
Liverpool -4
Newcastle -6
Arsenal -8
Chelsea -9



Performance challenging for the top four

Man City +11
Man Utd +11
Spurs +10
Newcastle +5
Liverpool +2
Chelsea +1
Arsenal -1



Chelsea and Arsenal narrow the gap on Liverpool slightly.

Up Next (w/end of 10th December)

Biggest opportunities in the next set of games are in the Chelsea-Man City game.  A win for either side will be a big result for them.  Especially so for Chelsea who have not had a great result yet this season looking at the chase for the title. All the rest are expected to win and thus can only drop points.

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should beat Everton (H)
Liverpool should beat QPR (H)
Man Utd should beat Wolves (H)
Newcastle should beat Norwich (A)
Spurs should beat Stoke (A)
Chelsea should draw against Man City (H)
Man City should lose against Chelsea (A)

Aiming for the Top Four

Arsenal should draw against Everton (H)
Liverpool should beat QPR (H)
Man Utd should beat Wolves (H)
Newcastle should beat Norwich (A)
Spurs should beat Stoke (A)
Chelsea should lose against Man City (H)
Man City should lose against Chelsea (A)

Just waiting on tomorrow's game City v Chelsea before updating this week's table.

However, I just wanted to show how different a start each of the current top 7 have had in terms of game difficulty.

These are how the Premier League tables would look after the City - Chelsea game if ALL teams had played to title form and top four form.  In other words, if they had won all their easy games, drawn their tricky games and lost their difficult games. 

It should highlight how poorly some teams have done compared to what is expected - and how well others have done.

All teams showing title form

1. Chelsea 38 pts
2. Arsenal 37
3. Newcastle 35
4. Man City 33
4. Spurs 33
6. Man Utd 31
7. Liverpool 30

All teams displaying top four form

1. Chelsea 29
2. Arsenal 28
3. Man City 27
4. Man Utd 25
4. Spurs 25
6. Liverpool 24
6. Newcastle 24

---

As you can see Chelsea have had by far the easiest start.  Looking at both tables Liverpool have had the most difficult start.

So while the gap to City, Utd and Spurs is bigger than we would have hoped - the gap between us and Arsenal is nowhere near as big as it should be suggesting again that Liverpool have had much better results than both those sides so far - despite being slightly behind in the Premier League table.

That is very interesting. Bodes well for us!

That is very interesting. Bodes well for us!

Except that we Perform better in the hard games

Except that we Perform better in the hard games

We must capitalise on those easier games & we'll be in business. Lets hope we improve on those games.

We must capitalise on those easier games & we'll be in business. Lets hope we improve on those games.

December and January are, on paper, our easiest section of the League season.  Not good for our league table - as we can only 'drop points' (apart from Villa and Man City).

A couple of weeks back though and Newcastle were flying, but as our table proved - they had an exceptionally easy set of fixtures.  Then they hit that tough spell we predicted and they have only managed 1 point out of the last 12 available, and gone from 3rd to 7th.

Spurs have done reasonably well so far, but their toughest spell doesn't start until the end of January - then they have a 9 game run in which we would expect them to drop points in 6 games.

Updated 12th December 2011

And so we roll past the 15th game of the season (or 14th for Spurs).  Bad weekend for Spurs and Newcastle.  Chelsea get their first positive result of the season in the chase for the title.  Too little too late?

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should beat Everton (H) 0
Liverpool should beat QPR (H) 0
Man Utd should beat Wolves (H) 0
Newcastle should beat Norwich (A) -3
Spurs should beat Stoke (A) -3
Chelsea should draw against Man City (H) +2
Man City should lose against Chelsea (A) 0

Aiming for the Top Four

Arsenal should draw against Everton (H) +2
Liverpool should beat QPR (H) 0
Man Utd should beat Wolves (H) 0
Newcastle should beat Norwich (A) -3
Spurs should beat Stoke (A) -3
Chelsea should lose against Man City (H) +3
Man City should lose against Chelsea (A) 0

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man City +5
Man Utd +5
Spurs -2
Liverpool -4
Chelsea -7
Arsenal -8
Newcastle -9



Performance challenging for the top four

ERROR FIXED: I had spotted an error in earlier weeks of the top four table.  We had given Spurs an extra point (should have taken one off when they got beat by City at home) and we gave Chelsea an extra two points (for beating WBA at home - we confused it with an away game).  These have now been corrected.

Man City +11
Man Utd +11
Spurs +6
Liverpool +2
Newcastle +2
Chelsea +2
Arsenal +1




Up Next (w/end of 17th December)

Biggest opportunities of the week are for Arsenal and Man City who face off at Eastlands.  Liverpool also can gain points if they do better than the expected draw.  All the other clubs can only drop points.

Aiming for the Title

Spurs should beat Sunderland (H)
Man Utd should beat QPR (A)
Newcastle should beat Swansea (H)
Arsenal should lose at Man City (A)
Liverpool should draw at Aston Villa (A)
Chelsea should beat Wigan (A)
Man City should draw against Arsenal (H)

Aiming for the Top Four

Spurs should beat Sunderland (H)
Man Utd should beat QPR (A)
Newcastle should beat Swansea (H)
Arsenal should lose at Man City (A)
Liverpool should draw at Aston Villa (A)
Chelsea should beat Wigan (A)
Man City should draw against Arsenal (H)

First time I've bothered to go on this thread. Very very interesting. I can't wait for the weekends matches now to see how we are doing on the graph.  Well done JD, have to pay a visit every time there's a game with any of the potential top 6 involved.

Great thread JD, really helps to put the games into perspective when you see it like that. I'm fairly confident we can beat Villa next week and gain some more ground.

My only problem is do we really know what points are going to be necessary to finish in certain positions this season?

I know we are basing it on other years but it could all change this year. It will take over 70+ points to get top four. Possibly over 90 to win the league.

My only problem is do we really know what points are going to be necessary to finish in certain positions this season?

That is of course very true.  However, the position the teams are in on our graph will be the same by the end of the season as the final finishing places.

Interesting that we never really had Man City ahead of United - even though at one point the league table was looking ominous - and now it is starting to come back to what we expected.

And even when Arsenal were plumbing the depths of the bottom of the table - we never had them miles off the pace as we recognised that they did have a difficult start.