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      November for show - December for dough

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      JD
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      November for show - December for dough
      Nov 08, 2011 03:42:47 pm
      November

      Chelsea (A)
      Man City (H).

      Both games, if we're being analytical, in which any points would be a good return.  Chelsea for me is the more important game of the two.  A draw away at Stamford Bridge remains a good result, although our away form has been pretty decent this season and I feel this could go either way. 

      But already I'm looking at the busy December which is a far more important month for us with 18 points on offer.

      December

      Fulham (A)
      QPR (H)
      Villa (A)
      Wigan (A)
      Blackburn (H)
      Newcastle (H)

      Irrespective of what happens in the next two 'glamour' games - December takes us to the half way stage and will either set us up brilliantly for a second half push, or give us a mountain to climb.

      After the next two games we could be anywhere between 6 points from the top or 9 points from 4th.  Imagine then how things could change in December.

      Worth remembering then - if we beat Chelsea and City don't crack open the champagne, and equally if we lose both - don't smash the bottle and eat the glass.
      kevinho
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #1: Nov 08, 2011 03:46:50 pm
      Good eye, JD. I have the same perspective as you. These two games are glamorous, will get plenty of media coverage, and pundits from all over the place will use them as barometers and talking points, but December is where we will make our push, or fall flat on our faces. 18 points up for grabs, and we should be taking every single one of them.

      Like my dad used to say when we would play golf, you drive for show, you putt for dough.
      waltonl4
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #2: Nov 08, 2011 04:04:49 pm
      Can you imagine the outcry if we take 6 points of Chelsea and City but then only 6 points from our December fixtures.
      dunlop liddell shankly
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #3: Nov 08, 2011 04:13:05 pm
      24 points from now until the New Year, might as well take all 24. The "glamour" games (can't believe I'm calling games with small clubs like Chelsea and City glamour) are the games we usually win. So it wouldn't surprise me if we win our next two. After that, it's whether or not we can fight against those "lesser" clubs.

      Still though, get Chelsea and their plazzy flag waving, banner nicking, money mad fans out the way then look to City.
      what-a-hit-son
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #4: Nov 08, 2011 04:17:51 pm
      That's a decent December fixture list and the full 18 is very achievable.

      14 out of the 18 would leave us in good stead especially if we can get 4 out of the glamour games in November.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #5: Nov 08, 2011 04:19:49 pm
      Ha - if we beat Man City then we best bloody had win all 6 in December otherwise the net winners will have been Man Utd.
      PurpleMonkey
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #6: Nov 08, 2011 06:47:32 pm
      If we get our **** together, I believe we can get 22 points :)

      November

      Chelsea (A)  Draw
      Man City (H).  Win

      December

      Fulham (A) Win
      QPR (H)  Win
      Villa (A)  Win
      Wigan (A)  Win
      Blackburn (H)  Win
      Newcastle (H)  Win
      redkenny
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #7: Nov 08, 2011 09:04:31 pm
      QPR at home and Wigan away are tricky numbers in December for me. I don't think Newcastle are going to carry on their run of form to the end of December. Fulham and Villa are games we should win ugly. Blackburn at home should really be a formality. 14 points from December and 4 points from the two remaining games in November, shouldn't be too hard to come by.

      That said, I think we really should be more concerned about putting more chances away and a few more players chipping in with the goals. Because if that doesn't happen soon, the 'on paper' notion will be crumpled up and lashed in the bin.
      Adryan
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #8: Nov 08, 2011 11:21:06 pm
      Screw. Thump them all.

      Some thrashings are long overdue.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #9: Nov 08, 2011 11:56:27 pm
      If we get our **** together, I believe we can get 22 points

      I like your style.

      December is going to be a very exciting month.

      Poko
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #10: Nov 09, 2011 12:11:01 am
      If we get our **** together, I believe we can get 22 points :)

      November

      Chelsea (A)  Draw
      Man City (H).  Win

      December

      Fulham (A) Win
      QPR (H)  Win
      Villa (A)  Win
      Wigan (A)  Win
      Blackburn (H)  Win
      Newcastle (H)  Win

      You got it all wrong.

      November

      Chelsea (A)  Win
      Man City (H).  Win

      December

      Fulham (A) Win
      QPR (H)  Win
      Villa (A)  Win
      Wigan (A)  Win
      Blackburn (H)  Win
      Newcastle (H)  Win

      ^BAM
      KS67
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #11: Nov 09, 2011 12:30:50 am
      Poko Online
          If we get our **** together, I believe we can get 22 points :)

          November

          Chelsea (A)  Draw
          Man City (H).  Win

          December

          Fulham (A) Win
          QPR (H)  Win
          Villa (A)  Win
          Wigan (A)  Win
          Blackburn (H)  Win
          Newcastle (H)  Win


      You got it all wrong.

      November

      Chelsea (A)  Win
      Man City (H).  Win

      December

      Fulham (A) Win
      QPR (H)  Win
      Villa (A)  Win
      Wigan (A)  Win
      Blackburn (H)  Win
      Newcastle (H)  Win

      ^BAM


      Boom, theres yer dinner!
      RedLFCBlood
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #12: Nov 09, 2011 12:47:37 am
      I want 24. ;)
      KS67
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #13: Nov 09, 2011 12:52:01 am
      AussieRed
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #14: Nov 09, 2011 01:32:10 am
      I'm with RLB. 24 is possible if we stick our chances away.

      Every game we have played so far, there have been large portions where we have dominated the possession, it's just our finishing that has let us down. Let's start sticking the ball in the back of the net with more than just Luis doing it and hopefully results will take care of itself.

      Come on you lads, give us a Merry friggin Christmas.
      zz19a
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #15: Nov 09, 2011 02:53:59 am
      If we get our **** together, I believe we can get 22 points :)

      November

      Chelsea (A)  Draw
      Man City (H).  Win

      December

      Fulham (A) Win
      QPR (H)  Win
      Villa (A)  Win
      Wigan (A)  Win
      Blackburn (H)  Win
      Newcastle (H)  Win

      22 out of 24 points, if we can do that run, we'll be in the title race & definitely in the top 4.  ;D

      One game at a time. We'll see. Just convert all those chances.
      Swinton
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #16: Nov 09, 2011 05:55:28 am
      You got it all wrong.

      November

      Chelsea (A)  Win
      Man City (H).  Win

      December

      Fulham (A) Win
      QPR (H)  Win
      Villa (A)  Win
      Wigan (A)  Win
      Blackburn (H)  Win
      Newcastle (H)  Win

      ^BAM

      Surely he only got one wrong there?  :f_tongueincheek:
      Poko
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #17: Nov 09, 2011 03:03:30 pm
      Surely he only got one wrong there?  :f_tongueincheek:

      Just to make sure the emphasis was clear enough, I put "all" in there. :)
      Eddieo
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #18: Nov 09, 2011 03:52:09 pm
       If we get over 15 points we will have done well IMO
      MIRO
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #19: Nov 09, 2011 03:57:53 pm
      Screw. Thump them all.

      Some thrashings are long overdue.


      Love your work.
      RobieSlick
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #20: Nov 09, 2011 04:52:26 pm
      If we get our **** together, I believe we can get 22 points :)

      November

      Chelsea (A)  Draw
      Man City (H).  Win

      December

      Fulham (A) Win
      QPR (H)  Win
      Villa (A)  Win
      Wigan (A)  Win
      Blackburn (H)  Win
      Newcastle (H)  Win

      I think you are living on Planet of the Apes Monkeyman. I am sure you have seen our scoring record - we are shy/sh|te in front of the goal. Where do you think will all the goals come to beat these so called lesser teams in December?

      I would say if the King changes his side a bit and also substitutions then we may fall on a team that is scoring goals. I think the King must give other players a chance (e.g. Maxi) to change the game. He seems to be using the same set of 14/15 players all the time. The goals (it seems) will only come if some changes are made in personnel. Let us see what he does.

      Out of 24 points, on our current form I would say 12 points max but in reality it could be as low as 8. I think we are fooling ourselves if we think we can get more than 12 points for the year 2011. Hope I am wrong and we bit the sheet out of everyone but on past form this aint happening.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #21: Nov 09, 2011 08:52:42 pm
      Out of 24 points, on our current form I would say 12 points max but in reality it could be as low as 8. I think we are fooling ourselves if we think we can get more than 12 points for the year 2011. Hope I am wrong and we bit the sheet out of everyone but on past form this aint happening.

      To be fair, I think the third post you made on here was your best so far.

      Post number 8 was a little bit too obvious.
      Rimli
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #22: Nov 09, 2011 09:15:27 pm
      Whenever we talk about more than one game at a time this is what happens : we get ahead of ourselves, indulge in the idea that we are the mighty LFC and we will win all our games, when in reality, we won't, and as most people here said, getting 15-16 is what I think will realistically happen.Not trying to be pessimistic here,just realistic.
      kelvo
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #23: Nov 10, 2011 06:49:43 am
      Love the title JD  ;)

      Yes, lets take one game at a time. Ah F**k it! Smash the Chavs (twice) and Citeh then we can go steaming into Decembers fixtures.

      Seriously, no reason why we cant get at least 6 wins from that 8, aside from the next two Villa away will be tricky and if the Geordies continue their form the game under the Anfield floodlights at the end of December could be a belter.

      Just hate this international break, case of keeping fingers crossed with injuries etc.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #24: Nov 10, 2011 08:09:46 am
      Whenever we talk about more than one game at a time this is what happens : we get ahead of ourselves, indulge in the idea that we are the mighty LFC and we will win all our games

      That wasn't the though behind my opening post. 

      I was highlighting how relatively insignificant our two games against Man City and Chelsea are - and that even if we smash both of them or get hammered in both - December has the potential to flip everything around.
      Billy1
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #25: Nov 10, 2011 08:26:59 am
       A good December will put us in a nice position for the second half of the season,people who are writing us off do so at their own peril.Aim for the top and get 6 points off Chelsea and City and then show all the other teams that we are back with 24 points in December,I reckon that will give us a very merry merry Christmas and new year.
      Whenever we talk about more than one game at a time this is what happens : we get ahead of ourselves, indulge in the idea that we are the mighty LFC and we will win all our games, when in reality, we won't, and as most people here said, getting 15-16 is what I think will realistically happen.Not trying to be pessimistic here,just realistic.
      Sorry to disagree with you but it is a fact that we are the MIGHTY Liverpool Football Club it is not an idea we indulge in.
      redtiptoe
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #26: Nov 10, 2011 08:35:42 am
      great post  JD, looked at this fixture  list through December the other day, and the next 8 our defiantly going to define our season.
      David Wright
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #27: Nov 13, 2011 06:40:42 pm
      The Wigan fixture, is always tricky especially away, mind you the side has been playing better, away from Anfield, chalking up a few decent victories.
      6stringer
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #28: Nov 13, 2011 09:43:51 pm
      No game in the BPL is an easy 3 pointer home or away and we've got to stay focused week by week and just concentrate on each opponent as they come along.as everyone of them is a potential banana skin..
      For me as i've said before I don't think Bellamy is playing enough in a red shirt and I feel he , above Downing , has proven his selection more and his recent display for Wales compared to Downings second half no show for England(despite playing in front of Glenn Johnson) needs to be rewarded..GOALS win matches and breed confidence in the player...Suarez is on fire and I just think the combination of him and Bellamy is much more direct and their link up play offers more attacking options at the moment...thats not to slag off big Andy either..
      To win any of these up and coming games we need to be scoring Goals !!..and more goals...
      thereds13
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #29: Nov 13, 2011 10:22:08 pm
      One game at a time.
      what-a-hit-son
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #30: Nov 21, 2011 10:27:09 pm
      Very interesting month ahead regardless of the City result.
      dunlop liddell shankly
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #31: Nov 21, 2011 10:32:17 pm
      24 points from now until the New Year, might as well take all 24.

      Still on course.

      tw*t City next weekend and start a run that sees us motor up the table and slap bang in the middle of a title chase. Bring in one or two new faces in January and continue our run right through the season finishing up with three points at home to Chelsea to clinch the title.

      Quite fitting the run of 26 straight League wins should start and end with Chelsea and even more fitting the games directly before and after the run are against Swansea.

      chats
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #32: Nov 27, 2011 06:34:08 pm
      So there we have it.

      Glamour month or whatever you want to call it is finished.

      4 points, pretty good return and pretty fair too (could have been 6 if it wasn't for Hart but also 2 if it wasn't for Pepe).

      December is where we're going to get a real indication as to where we finish. Can we finally take our form against the big clubs into the games against the smaller ones?
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #33: Nov 27, 2011 07:22:20 pm
      4 points from those last two is a good return.

      I'd like something north of 2 points a game in December please.  Come on reds.  Let's sort out our home form and get a good couple of away results and take advantage of other results and 6 pointers.
      MiciG91
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #34: Nov 27, 2011 07:33:36 pm
      Fulham (A)
      QPR (H)
      Villa (A)
      Wigan (A)
      Blackburn (H)
      Newcastle (H)

      There is only 2 games we should find difficult to win and dominate and that's the Fulham game away and the Newcastle game having said that we completely smashed them at craven cottage last year a game for maxi no doubt.

      I'm aiming for 14 points ambitious ? I don't think so !
      harrydunn08
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #35: Nov 28, 2011 12:08:27 am
      In my opinion, we are going to need to hit at least 72 points this season in order to secure Champions League footie for next year.  In the last 10 seasons, there has only been one year (2007-08) that 72 points would not have secured CL footie.  So, we will need to pick up 13 points from our next 6 games in order to be on track for 72 by the turn of the year. 

      Fulham (A) - 3 points
      QPR (H) - 3 points
      Villa (A) - 3 points
      Wigan (A) -3 points
      Blackburn (H) - 3 points
      Newcastle (H) - 3 points

      So, by my calculations we will be ahead of schedule by January 1st :)

      Seriously though, we should be able to pick up 4 wins and a draw from the next 6 games.  If not, we will really need to make some big signings in January in order to make up the difference in the 2nd half of the season. 
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #36: Nov 28, 2011 12:24:07 am
      In the last 10 seasons, there has only been one year (2007-08) that 72 points would not have secured CL footie.

      Not sure where you are getting your figures from.

      In 07-08 Everton finished 5th with 65 points.

      I'm fairly sure the most a team has ever needed to finish 4th is 68 points.

      I'm aiming for 14 points ambitious ? I don't think so !

      Was going to say anything better than 13 points I'd be happy with, so I suppose yes I agree!

      harrydunn08
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #37: Nov 28, 2011 01:28:18 am
      Not sure where you are getting your figures from.

      In 07-08 Everton finished 5th with 65 points.

      I'm fairly sure the most a team has ever needed to finish 4th is 68 points.

      During the 07-08 season, we finished in 4th with 76 points.  So if another team (I'll use Everton for example) had managed to amass 72 points that season, they would have still finished 5th.  Therefore, that is the only season in the last 10 years that 72 points would not have been enough to get into the top 4....  The next highest points total for a 4th place team over the last 10 years was 72.  So, I figured that if we could get 72 points we should be able to get CL footie next for next year. 
      bad boy bubby
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #38: Nov 28, 2011 09:57:42 am
      I'm fairly sure the most a team has ever needed to finish 4th is 68 points.

      Strangely, the average points tally for fourth, (over the past ten seasons), is 68 points but in the past four seasons 68 points would only have secured a top four finish last season. In 2007/08 - we were fourth with 76; 2008/09 - Arsenal with 72 and in 2009/10 - Spurs with 70.
      Tadders
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #39: Nov 28, 2011 12:34:16 pm
      Were in the best form since 2008/9. 4 keepers in a row have got the MOM at Anfield....things are hardly bad are they?

      4 out of 6 against these two is superb, especially as we deserved 6.

      Happy.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #40: Nov 28, 2011 02:09:26 pm
      Seems to be a lot of people having mathematical difficulties.

      To finish 4th place in the league you need a point more than the team in 5th.  Whether you have a 20 point gap or a one point gap it doesn't change this fact.

      Allow me to demonstrate.

      During the 07-08 season, we finished in 4th with 76 points

      Where would we have finished if we had got 66 points that season?
      Venison 86
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #41: Nov 28, 2011 02:14:42 pm
      Where would we have finished if we had got 66 points that season?



      Is that one of those rhetorical questions if not I know

       >:D what if some of the 10 points we dropped were against the blue sh*te?
      « Last Edit: Nov 28, 2011 02:25:47 pm by Venison 86 »
      Ally-LFC
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #42: Nov 28, 2011 02:26:02 pm
      We can win every game in December.

      If we get 18 points from those 6 games, I wouldn't be surprised. However if you offered me 15 or 16 right now, I'd happily take that.

      Was looking at these fixtures the other day thinking that we could come out of the christmas period in a fantastic position. I'd like to think we could go ahead of Spurs or catch them.

      Another thing worth looking at is this. Look at Man U's next 7 league games:

      Villa (A)
      Wolves (H)
      QPR (A)
      Fulham (A)
      Wigan (H)
      Blackburn (H)
      Newcastle (A)

      Almost identical to ours.

      Although I think there's will be tougher as they have Newcastle and QPR away rather than at home like we do.

      Currently we are 7 points behind Man U. Will be very interesting to see who does better over those fixtures, because this, for me, is the most important run of games in the season.
      harrydunn08
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #43: Nov 28, 2011 02:49:03 pm
      Seems to be a lot of people having mathematical difficulties.

      To finish 4th place in the league you need a point more than the team in 5th.  Whether you have a 20 point gap or a one point gap it doesn't change this fact.

      Allow me to demonstrate.

      Where would we have finished if we had got 66 points that season?

      I understand your logic.  All I am trying to show is that if you don't look at the teams who finished in the top 4 and only look at the points total, 66 points would not have been enough to finish in the top 4 in 2007-08 as we would have finished 10 points behind the team in 4th.  I am looking at the table as a "static table" and calculating what points total would be required for any team to break into the top 4 that season.  For example, lets assume that a Villa (who have not finished in the top 4 in the last 10 seasons) set themselves the goal of breaking into the top 4.  Looking at the last 10 seasons, my projection of 72 points would have gotten them CL footie 9 out of the last 10 seasons (assuming they had a better goal difference in a few of those seasons).  The only season that points total would not have been good enough was in 2007-08 when they still would have only finished 5th. 
      bad boy bubby
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #44: Nov 28, 2011 02:51:56 pm
      Seems to be a lot of people having mathematical difficulties. To finish 4th place in the league you need a point more than the team in 5th

      To finish in a top four place you need to finish ahead of the team that actually finished in fourth but I can see how you' could get it wrong. A lot less to do with mathematical acumen; more to do with simple logic.


      Where would we have finished if we had got 66 points that season?

      Still in fourth but where would the Blueshite have finished with your 66 points or even 68? Clue - not fourth.

      My turn JD: where would we have finished if we had got 66 68 points in 2008/09 or 2009/10?

      Looking at the last 10 seasons, my projection of 72 points would have gotten them CL footie 9 out of the last 10 seasons (assuming they had a better goal difference in a few of those seasons).

      Totally accurate harry.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #45: Nov 28, 2011 03:40:28 pm
      My turn JD: where would we have finished if we had got 66 68 points in 2008/09 or 2009/10?

      08-09 We would have finished 4th.

      09-10 We would also have finished 4th.  I assigned 3 of our extra 5 points as reversing the defeat to Spurs away.

      To finish in a top four place you need to finish ahead of the team that actually finished in fourth but I can see how you' could get it wrong. A lot less to do with mathematical acumen; more to do with simple logic.

      I stand by my original statement.  You need to finish on more points than the team in 5th.

      The problem with your logic is that it doesn't take in to account that there are a finite number of points available.  Your system suggests that it may be possible for 16 teams to be tied in 5th on 71 points - which is clearly ridiculous not to mention impossible.

      No team with 68 points has ever finished lower than the top four in recent years.  That may well change this year, but it would be a first.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #46: Nov 28, 2011 03:47:28 pm
      Back to December though and it looks as Aston Villa could have a big say in the whole title race/top four race.

      Man Utd (H)
      Liverpool (H)
      Arsenal (H)
      Chelsea (A)
      Roddenberry
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #47: Nov 28, 2011 03:50:53 pm
      Back to December though and it looks as Aston Villa could have a big say in the whole title race/top four race.

      Man Utd (H)
      Liverpool (H)
      Arsenal (H)
      Chelsea (A)

      Could also put McLeish under a bit of pressure.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #48: Nov 28, 2011 03:55:00 pm
      Could also put McLeish under a bit of pressure.

      I had wondered why Villa weren't doing 'too badly' in 8th but if that's their December games then obviously they have had an easy start to the season.
      Monobrow
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #49: Nov 28, 2011 03:56:03 pm
      Back to December though and it looks as Aston Villa could have a big say in the whole title race/top four race.

      Man Utd (H)
      Liverpool (H)
      Arsenal (H)
      Chelsea (A)

      Whaaaaaaat?!
      bad boy bubby
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #50: Nov 28, 2011 04:40:55 pm
      08-09 We would have finished 4th.

      09-10 We would also have finished 4th.

      Nah JD. We would have finished in front of the teams which finished in 5th but behind the teams that finished 4th.

      I stand by my original statement.  You need to finish on more points than the team in 5th.

      Stand by it all you want JD - but as we are 'talking' about a set of figures which are already there for all to see (and can not be changed) the fact is 68 points would not have secured 4th place only 5th.

      I'll try again - a simple question of logic; If you are in a race and you overtake the person who is in 5th place: what position are you in?

      It's a very common mistake mate. To finish 4th you need to overtake the person (or team) who's in 4th.
      « Last Edit: Nov 28, 2011 05:26:08 pm by bad boy bubby »
      harrydunn08
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #51: Nov 28, 2011 05:08:22 pm
      I see JD's point, and he makes a very compelling argument.  However, I believe (based on current form and points totals) that this season we will see a number of teams (possibly even 6) surpass the 68 point mark.  If you extrapolate the current points per game out for the rest of the season, this is what the table will look like:

      City - 102 pts
      Spurs - 88 pts
      United - 87 pts
      Newcastle - 76 pts
      Chelsea - 73 pts
      LFC - 67 pts
      Arsenal - 67 pts

      As you can see, there are currently 5 teams on course to better the 72 point mark.  Now, no one expects all of these teams (especially City, Spurs, and Newcastle) to actually hit the points totals that they are on course for, but I think it is entirely plausible to think that 5 teams could hit the 70 point mark this season. 

      Now, it is my belief that 72 points should be just enough for any team to secure CL footie for next year.  I don't have a mathematic formula to justify that..... I am simply making an assumption based on points totals from years past and the current form of the top 6 this term. 
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #52: Nov 28, 2011 05:15:45 pm
      If you're currently in 4th spot, you need to have more points than the team in 5th place.

      If you're chasing 4th, you need more points that the current team in 4th place.
      Monobrow
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #53: Nov 28, 2011 07:22:37 pm
      I see JD's point, and he makes a very compelling argument.  However, I believe (based on current form and points totals) that this season we will see a number of teams (possibly even 6) surpass the 68 point mark.  If you extrapolate the current points per game out for the rest of the season, this is what the table will look like:

      City - 102 pts
      Spurs - 88 pts
      United - 87 pts
      Newcastle - 76 pts
      Chelsea - 73 pts
      LFC - 67 pts
      Arsenal - 67 pts

      As you can see, there are currently 5 teams on course to better the 72 point mark.  Now, no one expects all of these teams (especially City, Spurs, and Newcastle) to actually hit the points totals that they are on course for, but I think it is entirely plausible to think that 5 teams could hit the 70 point mark this season. 

      Now, it is my belief that 72 points should be just enough for any team to secure CL footie for next year.  I don't have a mathematic formula to justify that..... I am simply making an assumption based on points totals from years past and the current form of the top 6 this term. 

      Yes but if you check out the Season Analysis thread, we've had a harder start than some of the others and so it's not an accurate way of working it out just to go on the games we (and the others) have already played. Some teams have picked up more points in the first 13 games because they've had it easier than us.
      scottyLFC
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #54: Nov 28, 2011 07:33:24 pm
      At the end of the day, we can say that December is an easy month... but sooooo many times we draw with crap teams  :mad:

      QPR, Fulham, Wigan and Blackburn in December... all games we should win, but if we actually do win is a different matter.

      And as for Newcastle, they are looking fantastic this season ... a lucky 1-1 draw at Old Trafford but a draw is a draw to be fair. They will be difficult to beat if we continue missing our chances.

      Hope I'm wrong ... but I just cannot see it being as easy as everyone thinks.
      sniperwolf4b3ll3ami3
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #55: Nov 28, 2011 07:41:47 pm
      Looking at a possible 16points out of our december games with the only draw being villa or newcastle
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #56: Nov 28, 2011 08:50:03 pm

      You don't need to try again.  I'm as certain my logic is correct - in just the way you are certain yours is.

      Come back to me when you find the last team to finish with 68+ points who didn't finish in the top four.
      Adryan
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #57: Nov 28, 2011 08:59:16 pm
      Considering we've played City, United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs.. and we have 19 games a season's half, so this means we've got 6 games we must win.

      41 points half way through the season is decent.
      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #58: Nov 28, 2011 09:02:20 pm
      City - 102 pts
      Spurs - 88 pts
      United - 87 pts
      Newcastle - 76 pts
      Chelsea - 73 pts
      LFC - 67 pts
      Arsenal - 67 pts

      We did try to assess the difficulty of each teams games already played and as it stands, and if the clubs continue with the same level of form I get something like

      1. Man City 101 pts
      2. Man Utd 95 pts
      3. Spurs 94 pts
      4. Liverpool 77 pts
      5.  Newcastle 76 pts
      6. Chelsea 63 pts
      7. Arsenal 61 pts

      However, we all know form is temporary!

      The statto website also continuously update their predictions for the league and they currently have it down as

      1. Man City 86 pts
      2. Man Utd 84 pts
      3. Spurs 78 pts
      4. Chelsea 69 pts
      5. Liverpool 66 pts
      Newcastle 66 pts
      Arsenal 66 pts


      harrydunn08
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #59: Nov 28, 2011 09:17:23 pm
      We did try to assess the difficulty of each teams games already played and as it stands, and if the clubs continue with the same level of form I get something like

      1. Man City 101 pts
      2. Man Utd 95 pts
      3. Spurs 94 pts
      4. Liverpool 77 pts
      5.  Newcastle 76 pts
      6. Chelsea 63 pts
      7. Arsenal 61 pts

      However, we all know form is temporary!

      The statto website also continuously update their predictions for the league and they currently have it down as

      1. Man City 86 pts
      2. Man Utd 84 pts
      3. Spurs 78 pts
      4. Chelsea 69 pts
      5. Liverpool 66 pts
      Newcastle 66 pts
      Arsenal 66 pts

      I'll personally be hoping for the first option then!!  If we do not win the title, I will just be hoping for 3 things:

      1.  That we still make it into a CL spot
      2.  That the dirty Manc cu*ts do not win it
      3.  That Chelsea fall out of the CL positions and Judas comes out and says that leaving LFC was the worst decision he has ever made in his life :)
      kevinho
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #60: Nov 28, 2011 09:51:52 pm
      I still expect Spurs to lose a bit of form. They're on a F***ing rampant tear with their starting XI, and from midfield to attack I think they may have, along with shitty, the best side in the league. Their defense, however, is really not all that good, and they've had no real injuries or bad luck as of yet (other than the thrashing they took in the beginning of the season, when they didn't have their full XI). I think once they have to use their full squad in tougher games, they'll struggle. I still think they'll be challenging for the top 4, but not on this torrid form for much longer.

      Our current pace has us at 1.76 points per game. Extrapolated over the full season, that's right at 67 points. I expect us to turn at least two draws we've had in to victories the second go around, but we also may drop 2 points we've picked up so far, in the form of the Manc teams away later in the season. That's still an improvement of 2 points aggregate.

      This December is unbelievably important. We need to pick up AT LEAST 4 wins and two draws, at worst. Even better, 5 wins and a loss (15 points vs. 14 points). 14 points would increase our points per game up to 1.95 points per game, which would have us, at a full season, at 74 points. 5 wins and a loss puts us right at 2 points per game.

      In short, come the F**k on Reds.
      srslfc
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #61: Nov 28, 2011 09:59:40 pm
      Five wins and a loss is definaltely achievable and nothing to stop us winning all six.
      RedLFCBlood
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #62: Nov 28, 2011 10:04:19 pm
      If we can play with the same intensity and purpose as we have done against Chelsea and City, we could easily take maximum points, but thats a big IF, but i'm going for us to win them all.
      sniperwolf4b3ll3ami3
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #63: Nov 28, 2011 10:38:47 pm
      If you're currently in 4th spot, you need to have more points than the team in 5th place.

      If you're chasing 4th, you need more points that the current team in 4th place.
      Well obviously but on forums we asses the games aheead and how tough certain fixtures are and since we have played all the top teams except newcastle we should be on a good run to get 4th for the new year. 8)
      KennyIsKing
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #64: Nov 28, 2011 10:41:24 pm
      Best thread on the forum right now.
      zanwalk
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #65: Nov 28, 2011 11:08:45 pm
      The difference this season is that there appears to be seven teams contesting the top four, this may change as the season progresses, but it does make for a rather a lot of nail-biting. It is certainly shaping up to be a close fought CL qualification, and the game yesterday shows that no team is invincible.
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #66: Nov 28, 2011 11:59:08 pm
      Best thread on the forum right now.

      You mean, even better than the Charlie Adam thread  ;)

       :lmao:
      KennyIsKing
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #67: Nov 29, 2011 12:04:59 am
      You mean, even better than the Charlie Adam thread  ;)

       :lmao:

      Nah, this one is serious, the other is just funny - it's like young stags trying to lock horns, except they are fella's with belly's who sit in front of the PC and give the world the benefit of their wisdom.

      There's a couple of spoofers as we all know, but at least they make it inetersting :)

      This was an inspired thread, and I really enjoy it ;)
      Adryan
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #68: Nov 29, 2011 08:37:36 am
      Still think there's no reason we can't get 18 points in the next 6 league games considering we've actually played the bigger teams already.

      A 41 point mark after half a season where we've drawn so many at Anfield is a decent return.
      linneman
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #69: Nov 29, 2011 08:56:36 am
      Still think there's no reason we can't get 18 points in the next 6 league games considering we've actually played the bigger teams already.

      A 41 point mark after half a season where we've drawn so many at Anfield is a decent return.

      Sure we can get 18 points, but taking in to account the previous games against 'smaller' teams we cannot take this for granted!  I really hope we gan go on a winning streak here, but it's not gonna come easy
      bad boy bubby
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #70: Nov 29, 2011 09:09:36 am
      Come back to me when you find the last team to finish with 68+ points who didn't finish in the top four.

      I understand your point fully and I have, mistakingly, misrepresented it.

      The mistake I have made was to assume that you were discussing Liverpool and how many points we would have needed to have finished 4th in 2010/11, for example. I apologise, unreservedly, for making that assumption.

      Just as it's true that only a team with 71 points would have been able to overtake Spurs for 4th that season - It is correct that Spurs would have only needed 68 points to remain in 4th.

      Your observations about any team with 68 points is correct.



      « Last Edit: Nov 29, 2011 10:07:47 am by bad boy bubby »
      sniperwolf4b3ll3ami3
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #71: Nov 30, 2011 08:39:01 pm
      We can get 18points because our team is turning into quite a force, hopefully push for the title?? :angel:
      Adryan
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #72: Dec 05, 2011 11:31:37 pm
      0 out of a possible 18 now.
      lreland
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #73: Dec 06, 2011 02:24:19 pm
      i think we beat QPR and wigan away and hopeful other two home games only hard game is aston villa away i hope man city beat chelsea and aresanl because dont think we win league this year and hopeful spuds lose to stoke away
      lfc across the water
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #74: Dec 10, 2011 08:22:39 pm
      First 3 points today of the dough. After going to Villa, we should be able to get 9 points of the remaining games.
      ozi_wozzy
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      Next four games
      Reply #75: Dec 19, 2011 10:53:37 am
      Another excellent away win against Villa and confidence is high, so I'm optimistic about the busy Christmas/New Year period.

      We've got Wigan away, Blackburn and Newcastle at home, then we're away to City with a few days rest between each game. On the face of it, I think we can win the first three, and although we can beat City, I'd take a draw. That's 10 out of 12 points. Considering how tight things are between us and 3rd place, no reason we can't climb up there by start of january.

      If Suarez is banned, makes things difficult but I don't think we're as reliant on him as we were on Torres. Bellamy's doing a good job, Kuyt can come in and it may give Andy some much needed games.

      What are people's expectations from next four?
      AussieRed
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      Re: Next four games
      Reply #76: Dec 19, 2011 11:00:01 am
      W,W,W,W

      However I feel a Mod coming in here soon to merge this with another thread.  ;)
      kb2x
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      Re: Next four games
      Reply #77: Dec 19, 2011 11:02:02 am
      Draw at Wigan,

      Win over Blackburn

      Win Over Newcastle

      Draw at City

      Would be happy with that.
      David Wright
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      Re: Next four games
      Reply #78: Dec 19, 2011 11:10:32 am
      Draw at Wigan,

      Win over Blackburn

      Win Over Newcastle

      Draw at City

      Would be happy with that.
      I will go with the above post, two wins and two draws, a satisfactory haul over the Christmas and New Year period.
      kb2x
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      Re: Next four games
      Reply #79: Dec 19, 2011 11:16:59 am
      Saying that, our away form is very good this season,

      So 3 wins and a draw minimum for me.
      what-a-hit-son
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      Re: Next four games
      Reply #80: Dec 19, 2011 11:24:04 am
      Got to be looking at 12 points there come on.

      We kicked City's arse the other week and it was two points lost I thought. Taking that into account I think we'll be wanting to put that right, right?

      Draw at Wigan,

      Win over Blackburn

      Win Over Newcastle

      Draw at City

      Would be happy with that.

      The day I hope for a draw at Wigan is the day I do not have a hole in my arse. In fact I am actually astonished somebody has just posted that. On what grounds do you believe we should come away from there with a draw??

      I can kind of get you saying that a draw at City would suffice but cant get you saying you'd be 'happy with that' especially when including being happy with going and getting a draw at Wigan F***ing Athletic.

      Wigan win, Blackburn win, Newcastle win and City win.
      kb2x
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      Re: Next four games
      Reply #81: Dec 19, 2011 11:31:06 am
      Got to be looking at 12 points there come on.

      We kicked City's arse the other week and it was two points lost I thought. Taking that into account I think we'll be wanting to put that right, right?

      The day I hope for a draw at Wigan is the day I do not have a hole in my arse. In fact I am actually astonished somebody has just posted that. On what grounds do you believe we should come away from there with a draw??

      I can kind of get you saying that a draw at City would suffice but cant get you saying you'd be 'happy with that' especially when including being happy with going and getting a draw at Wigan f**king Athletic.

      Wigan win, Blackburn win, Newcastle win and City win.

      We have a dodgy record at Wigan to say the least... They drew with the Chavs at the weekend, and are very difficult to beat at their place.

      If you actually checked my 2nd post - I changed it to 3 wins and a draw.
      ozi_wozzy
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #82: Dec 19, 2011 11:37:44 am
      We have a dodgy record at Wigan to say the least... They drew with the Chavs at the weekend, and are very difficult to beat at their place.

      If you actually checked my 2nd post - I changed it to 3 wins and a draw.

      i was thinking this too, wigan are a poor side but prove to be a banana skin. saying that, the chavs are a bunch of sissies who can't travel to cold north west, we're better equipped plus our defence has cut out a lot of unnecessary errors that blighted us against smaller teams. i would be very disappointed not to win.

      ps: i did think it was a slightly ott angry response from what-a-hit-son, maybe he's just passionate. i wouldn't take it personally.
      what-a-hit-son
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #83: Dec 19, 2011 12:44:40 pm
      We have a dodgy record at Wigan to say the least... They drew with the Chavs at the weekend, and are very difficult to beat at their place.

      If you actually checked my 2nd post - I changed it to 3 wins and a draw.

      No offence mate and I hadn't seen your post underneath it but I stick to what I wrote in the most part.

      ps: i did think it was a slightly ott angry response from what-a-hit-son, maybe he's just passionate. i wouldn't take it personally.

      You think that was angry, really? I'll leave it there then with you.


      Fact is I expect more than a draw against Wigan at Wigan and would not be 'happy' with anything less. No reasoning can make me be 'happy' with that.

      So what if our record there is not that good we won at The Emirates for the first time this season. So what if they have just drew against Chelsea, we have just beaten them twice. So what if they are hard to beat at their place, have you not seen us play away from home this season?
      zz19a
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #84: Dec 19, 2011 01:21:39 pm
      Aston Villa WON

      Wigan    Win

      Blackburn Win

      Newcastle Win

      Citeh  Win

      Anything less than 3 win for the next 4 game are consider a failure.
      zz19a
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #85: Dec 19, 2011 03:07:02 pm
      November
      Chelsea (A)     WON
      Man City (H)    DRAWN

      December
      Fulham            LOSS
      QPR                 WON
      Aston Villa       WON
      Wigan
      Blackburns R
      Newcastle

      So far
      WON 3, Draw 1 & Loss 1 (10 / 15 points)

      We must extend our winning streak. Do U know that we have not won consecutively in the premier league more than 2 games this season?

      Lets go. YNWA.
      Vedder
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #86: Dec 19, 2011 03:18:12 pm
      Wigan, Blackburn and Newcastle are all games that we should win.

      Wigan is actually the one that worries me the most at present. We've not got the best record at their place and it wouldn't surprise me to see us come away with a 1-1 or 0-0 draw.

      Let's hope I am wrong.
      racerx34
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #87: Dec 19, 2011 03:21:57 pm
      I'll be delighted if we can maintain a 2.0 average points per game.
      Vedder
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #88: Dec 19, 2011 03:31:48 pm
      The really tough fixture on the horizon is City away on January 3rd.

      If we can go into that on the back of three wins, we'll have a real chance of ending their 100% home record.

      Arsenal did well - let's go one better and come away with at least a point.
      stephenmc9
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #89: Dec 19, 2011 04:09:32 pm
      Think Wigan will be a tough game,But still think we can get 3 points there,Defo 3 points at home to Blackburn.Same againest Newcastle

      Wigan    Win

      Blackburn Win

      Newcastle Win

      City   Will be chuffed with a win be would be happy with the draw.

      Al1892
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #90: Dec 19, 2011 04:24:19 pm
      Newcastle game worries me and i expect us to win all games. But lads how often even this season have we had good results then we go drop points against lesser teams? Its something we have to stop. Killing off games is still a big worry for me. I no we had it fairly easy against villa but we still didnt take enough chances and didnt score from open play. Its worrying me tbh. Newcastle are missing a few at the minute i no but they have a good defensive record and a keeper who is on fire. We need to sort out the finishing sharpish or more points will be dropped.
      kevinho
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #91: Dec 19, 2011 07:24:35 pm
      8 points absolute minimum and would be satisfying. Expecting 9, would be chuffed with 10, and would walk around naked with a boner with 12.
      zz19a
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #92: Dec 22, 2011 01:56:50 am
      November
      Chelsea (A)     WON
      Man City (H)    DRAWN

      December
      Fulham            LOSS
      QPR                 WON
      Aston Villa       WON
      Wigan              DRAWN
      Blackburns R
      Newcastle

      So far
      WON 3, Draw 2 & Loss 1 (11 / 18 points)

      We must extend our winning streak. Do U know that we have not won consecutively in the premier league for more than 2 games this season?

      Lets go. YNWA.

      The winning streak stop at 2 again.   :mad:  :mad:

      So far
      WON 3, Draw 2 & Loss 1 (11 / 18 points)

      We can't even get into Europa League with this kind of results. Yo-yo season again for us.
      zz19a
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #93: Dec 27, 2011 01:38:23 am
      27/12/2011

      WON 3, Draw 3 & Loss 1 (12 / 21 points)  :mad:

      zz19a
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #94: Dec 30, 2011 02:42:45 am
      28/12/2011

      Man City         WON 4, Draw 2 & Loss 1 (14 / 21 points)
      Man Utd          WON 6, Draw 1 & Loss 0 (19 / 21 points)
      Spurs              WON 5, Draw 1 & Loss 1 (16 / 21 points)
      Chelsea          WON 3, Draw 3 & Loss 1 (12 / 21 points)
      Arsenal           WON 4, Draw 2 & Loss 1 (14 / 21 points)
      Liverpool         WON 3, Draw 3 & Loss 1 (12 / 21 points)
      Newcastle       WON 1, Draw 2 & Loss 4 (05 / 21 points)

      Man Utd         19
      Spurs             16
      Man City         14
      Arsenal           14
      Chelsea          12
      Liverpool        12
      Newcastle      05

      JD
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #95: Jan 01, 2012 07:56:37 pm
      3 wins 2 draws and 1 defeat in December.

      11 points out of 18.

      It wasn't quite the month we were expecting but, such is football, we are both closer to the top of the league and closer to the top four.

      Funny old game isn't it.  Worth bearing in mind the next time we have a disappointing result - and the clouds of doom appear at full time.  There is a reason the season lasts for 10 months.
      aw1
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #96: Jan 01, 2012 10:35:21 pm
      For the two months we managed 15 points out of 24.

      This gives us an average of 1.875 points per game which is just marginally higher of overall season average of 1.8 points per game.

      If we are to challenge for the title we need to push that average up to 2.35 or there abouts.
      lfc across the water
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #97: Jan 01, 2012 11:08:15 pm
      Quote from JD
      3 wins 2 draws and 1 defeat in December.

      11 points out of 18.

      It wasn't quite the month we were expecting but, such is football, we are both closer to the top of the league and closer to the top four.

      Funny old game isn't it.  Worth bearing in mind the next time we have a disappointing result - and the clouds of doom appear at full time.  There is a reason the season lasts for 10 months.

      The season lasts for 10 months, but certain results in the season decide the outcome.

      We got barely half the points from this month available. We dropped points against very weak teams that we shouldn't have. We have had a good weekend for a change. But we're so far behind those above us that we need a few more weekends like it, and that is a tall order.

      If you want a CLQ next summer, things are ticking along nicely. If you look for more than that as I do, there is a lot of work and catching up still to do.
      zz19a
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      Re: November for show - December for dough
      Reply #98: Jan 04, 2012 04:20:28 am
      For the two months we managed 15 points out of 24.

      This gives us an average of 1.875 points per game which is just marginally higher of overall season average of 1.8 points per game.

      If we are to challenge for the title we need to push that average up to 2.35 or there abouts.

      We'll never win the title this season period.

      UCL is highly possible. Lets hope we can achieve that.  :roll:

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