Bellers was a case completely against the entire concept which also shows the need for flexibility.
It might go against the guidelines listed on Soccernomics, but I think Bellamy was actually one of our only signings that did make sense from a 'Moneyball' perspective. The key is to get players who are good but, for some reason or another, are undervalued in the market. And that's exactly the case with Bellers. Because of his age (off field problems and confrontation with former manager can also be cited), he came on the cheap. Otherwise, if he was younger and had a better record in terms of discipline, he could well have been out of our reach. I'd say he's kinda like our equivalent to Oakland A's David Justice.
Downing was massively overpriced as was Henderson, these are unfortunately facts based upon what we've seen this season and what many of us said upon signing these players. If Comolli is using "chances created" as his golden ticket then I'm afraid we're only likely to buy more of these type of players. Adam also appears to be a poor signing and I hope that this summer we abandon the terrible strategy of last season and go for more proven, established players who we can push on with because another summer of failed signings would be hard to take.
Thinking of Downing, another mistake I think we made and goes against the logic implied in the article was overpaying because of recent performance. He had just been nominated Aston Villa player of the year and all of a sudden, people started to change opinions about him (some just a few months old, going from overrated garbage to underrated wonder). Ashley Young has always been a superior player but for one season where he was clearly not really motivated and then he was labeled a 'MOTD player'. Hate to say 'I told you so', but I did.
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