This is the cycle we're currently in.
1. We perpetually finish somewhere between 6th and 8th (we've done it under numerous different managers now).
2. To address this issue, as we "can't compete" with the big spenders, we buy players "for the future" who we can "develop into stars".
3. At the end of each Summer window we tell ourselves that these players will "take time to bed in" and that a challenge this coming season is unlikely. Next season after this one though, "you just watch us go!".
4. During the course of each season, the new players do take time to bed in "as we said all along". We do though show signs of getting somewhere, and after Christmas go on a dizzying run which if extrapolated over a whole season would see us in the top three. Unfortunately though the bedding in period costs us, as does our smallish squad in terms of quality should we have a cup run. We finish 6th-8th.
5. At the end of the season our rivals spend big on ready made stars. Unfortunately for us, those ready made stars sometimes include our best player. If said player leaves for double his money wages, we call him a "mercenary c***" and buy lots of players "for the future" who we can "develop into stars".
6. Naturally those players take time to bed in and get used to the Premiership, so we reason that a challenge this season is unlikely.
Etc etc etc. Return to number one and repeat ad infinitum. Jürgen being a World class manager might be able to speed up the production line so for each Suarez and Sterling we sell we have a Coutinho and a Sturridge readyy and waiting, and players behind them too. But my fear is even Jürgen will only be able to nudge it up to 4th - 6th.
That's one way of looking at it Mick so let's have a look at some detail to back up your summary.
Firstly let's decide what "age" we should be looking. I'll go with 21 and under but do a summary for those aged 22 and 23 as they're still considered "young with potential".
Secondly let's decide how far we go back. I'll take it from the FSG takeover as that's the "time" we decided that buying for the future was the way to go. So first window is January 2011.
January 2011
Luis Suarez
Andy Carrol - 21
Andy was a panic buy after losing our only No9 in the last few days of the window. Wasn't fancied by Brendan and was promptly sent on loan after 6 months and sold a year later.
Summer 2011
Stewart Downing
Jordan Henderson - 21
Charlie Adam
Jose Enrique
Alexander Doni
Sebastian Coates - 21
Craig Bellamy
Villyan Bijev - 19
Hendo struggled to get into the team in his natural position due to having Stevie still playing. For the money he was probably expected to be more of a hit although his contribution to our "nearly season" can't be sniffed at. He's now a regular starter, is Club Captain and we've still to see how he does under Jürgen.
Seb was ideal for Kennys low block defending but struggled for Brendan. Was moved on pretty quickly.
Bijev never featured as we couldn't get a work permit for him, he was released this summer.
January 2012
Philippe Coutinho - 21
Daniel Sturridge - 21
Both massive hits from day one and still our best 2 players.
Summer 2012
Nuri Sahin
Joe Allen - 22
Fabio Borini - 21
Oussama Assaidi
Samed Yesil - 18
Joe initially was highly praised until his injuries meant he couldn't get regular game time. Has come back into his own under Jürgen and is back to playing how we expected him to and most would like him to stay.
Borini was never really robust enough or good enough although he's done reasonably well at Sunderland.
Yesil we'll never know about as two huge ACL injuries kept him out for over 18 months at the most important stage of a young players career. Has never recovered and was released this summer.
Summer 2013
Kolo Toure
Iago Aspas
Luis Alberto - 21
Simon Mignolet
Aly Cissokho
Mamadou Sakho - 23
Tiago Ilori - 20
Victor Moses
Alberto got a few sub appearances before being shipped out on loan and never been seen since. He's had a few good performances and scored some nice goals. Doubt he'll fit Jurgens set up but still a decent player for the right team in the right league.
Sakho on his day is unbelievable, still has his shaky moments but is usually a starter.
Tiago another who was shipped out before getting a first team start. He's also struggled with injuries but is still considered a talent and interestingly has not been released, yet.
Summer 2014
Rickie Lambert
Emre Can - 20
Adam Lallana
Lazar Markovic - 20
Dejan Lovren
Divock Origi - 19
Javier Manquillo - 20
Alberto Moreno - 21
Mario Balotelli -23
Emre struggled in his first season due to being played as a defender, in a disfunctional defense, has since become Jurgens go to man in midfield.
Lazer another constantly played out of position then shipped out on loan. Will be interesting to see what Jürgen does with him as he certainly has the pace we sorely lack.
Divock is going to be immense in the coming seasons and will keep Daniel on his toes.
Manquillo was a loan deal who did reasonable well covering for Glen although probably not attacking enough for Brendan.
Moreno more or less plays every game and although a lot want to see him replaced it seems Jürgen has other ideas. He's perfect for what he wants in a fb if he can learn his defensive duties and some positional sense.
Balo should never have been at the Club and can't wait for him to leave.
Summer 2015
James Milner
Danny Ings - 22
Adam Bogdan
Joe Gomez - 18
Roberto Firmino
Nathaniel Clyne
Christian Benteke
Danny Ings I can't wait to see this season, I was gutted for the lad when he got injured. Seems Jürgen likes the look of him too.
Joe Gomes is another who arrived, played out of position but did well considering his age and lack of top level experience. Will be good to see him develop further and if the injury hasn't caused a permanent weakness we should have a damn good CB on our hands.
So in conclusion, out of the 18 players bought, as "young with potential" 10 of them are either regular starters or part of the matchday squad. 2 are still with us that never got a start, 2 should never have been bought, 1 suffered serious injuries that he didn't recover from, 1 couldn't play due to work permit issues, 1 didn't fit the next managers set up and 1 wasn't good enough.
Considering transfers of any age, from any league, for any amount of money have a success rate of 50/50 that's not a bad return mate.
What is interesting is that those who have been a success and will be the mainstay of our squad going forward under Jürgen is that they were all playing at a very high level when we bought them, even though they were still very young. They've still got a lot of development to come, even those like Daniel, Sakho and Hendo who are entering their prime years will continue to develop and improve, especially when we have one of the best developers of talent as our Manager.
We've continued along these lines with our new recruits. Karius, who is about to turn 23 has had 3 good seasons and nearly 100 appearances in the Bundesliga and Matip at 24, nearly 25 has had 7 seasons and 260 games in the Bundesliga. That's a lot of top level experience for players that age.
I know people don't like to admit it but we have a young but experienced, very talented group of players as our core. It may have taken us a long time to get there and some of them may not be good enough for when we eventually get back to the top but that's what building a squad is all about.
Of those who haven't broken through yet they were always the gambles as they weren't just young, they had no experience in the top flight at all. A bit like Sinclair going to Watford he's unlikely to feature much for a good few seasons and having watched him play for the last 3 or 4 seasons I'll be surprised if he ever does, unless the team is set up perfectly for him which doesn't happen often at 19 years of age.
The transfers we have really failed at are the Balotelli, Caroll and Benteke ones. They were never going to fit, weren't what we needed and they cost us nearly £100m to buy. You could include Migs in that list too but he hardly broke the bank like the others. Out of those though, from an accountants pov, we'll probably only lose money on Balo and Markovic, if he's sold, all the others will show as a profit on the balance sheet.
Of course now we're 6 years into the process it's possible that some will think about moving on, either to get regular playing time for those on the fringes or those who believe they won't win much if they stay but that's a risk with any player. Hopefully we won't lose any of our regular starters this summer, that they'll give the Club and Jürgen another season.