Jürgen Klopp - Liverpool FC Manager

Why Liverpool are conceding too many big chances this season and why it matters

Liverpool take the initiative in games but opponents know now that they will always cough up golden chances in games because of their poor defence - and the statistics prove it

The last time Liverpool played at home, before they host Manchester United this Saturday, was when Burnley came to Anfield on 16 September. It felt like Burnley might be on a hiding to nothing: they only took seven away points in the 2016-17 season, the second worst record in the division. And Liverpool, in their last home league game, had beaten Arsenal 4-0.

But Burnley went to Anfield with confidence and a plan. The players knew that whatever happened in the game, at one point the Liverpool defence would switch off, especially if some pressure was applied against them. When that happened, Burnley would be presented with a golden chance, not a marginal one. They just had to take it.

Sure enough Liverpool dominated the match, but the first time Burnley went forward they scored. They hit a diagonal which Robbie Brady beat Trent Alexander-Arnold to. Chris Wood won the second ball, as Ragnar Klavan charged towards him and Joel Matip. That left a huge space in the box and a simple finish for Scott Arfield. Liverpool soon equalised and continued to batter Burnley, eventually racking up 35 shots. But Burnley had their goal and they nearly even got a second, as Ben Mee’s late header was cleared off the line.

It was a hugely frustrating afternoon but not an atypical one. There was a similar story on 1 October at St James’ Park when Liverpool again dominated the game but drew 1-1. Again, the one chance they gave up, this time to Joselu, was a golden one, with the Liverpool defenders desperately far apart. He took it and Liverpool drew again.

Those two games teach a lesson, a lesson that bodes ill for Liverpool’s game with United. For a team that plays on the front foot and likes to take the initiative, Liverpool concede far too many big chances. Teams know about Liverpool’s initial press, but as Burnley and Newcastle showed, once the initial press is beaten, Liverpool’s defending in their own half is so bad that there will always be big gaps and big chances.

This is borne out by the numbers. At first glance Liverpool are defending well, having conceded just 59 shots this season, the second least in that league. Only City – 45 shots – have allowed fewer, according to Opta.

But that is only a fraction of the story. What matters more is how many shots on target a team faces, which points towards the quality of chances that Liverpool are giving away. Liverpool have conceded 31 shots on target this season, the joint-sixth most in the league. Only Everton, Bournemouth, Swansea, Leicester City and Crystal Palace have allowed more.

So a ratio of shots on target to shots conceded puts Liverpool bottom by miles. 0.53 of the shots against them are on target, more than double the 0.21 figure of the miserly and expert Tottenham and Burnley defences. Or to put it in expected goals terms, Liverpool’s expected goals against (9.42) is more than twice as bad as their nominal title rivals Manchester City (3.71) and Spurs (4.41). And having conceded 12 so far – only West Ham and Leicester have conceded more – they cannot claim bad luck.

Liverpool have proven that they can be electric on their day, as they were against Arsenal. But their defence is so bad that teams can be confident of scoring against them with almost any attacks. There are some teams, like last season’s Chelsea, who are solid defensively that opponents are forced to shoot from distance out of desperation. Liverpool are the opposite, with opponents just trying to get into the final third when they know things will open up. And then when the big chances do come, Liverpool do not have an elite goalkeeper like David De Gea or Hugo Lloris to make those low-percentage reaction saves.

When Burnley drew at Anfield their players recognised how nervous the home crowd got whenever Liverpool had to defend, and the collective holding of breath, in contrast to the more relaxed atmosphere at the homes of the other big sides. But the Liverpool fans are right to get anxious with their defence, knowing that when United come to Anfield on Saturday they will take advantage of any big opening.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/liverpool-vs-manchester-united-conceding-too-many-big-chances-this-season-Jürgen-klopp-a7995301.html

No mincing with numbers trying to make it all wishy washy and positive - this is objective; no agenda from the author - simply a clear and concise view backed up by statistics that corroborates what our eye's have seen so far this season.

But, but, .........we "don't concede many chances".

A defence that gives away golden chances and a goalkeeper incapable of saving a half decent shot on target. All adds up.

Well King Kenny would rather us win 3-2 than 1-0, I'm good with that too

& he loves the crazy man in charge too..

Well King Kenny would rather us win 3-2 than 1-0, I'm good with that too

& he loves the crazy man in charge too..

Of course a 3-2 end to end game is more entertaining than a 1-0 ultra-defensive game but its all the bloody draws against "weak" opposition which kills us over a season. We simply have to find a solution to the defence if we are to ever win the league.

We lose 9 points so far draw against Walford was OK but still we goal up few mintures go draw against Burnley at home we should be beat poor Newcastle team till we beat these teams more often then we never win league

Don't slaughter me but I'm not confident at all today. Obviously I hope I'm wrong blah blah blah and all that old bollocks, but unless we can play significantly better than we have been doing we'll get beat. We can obviously (play significantly better than we have been doing) it just takes a leap of faith to actually believe it'll happen (as opposed to just saying it/showing faith etc).

I'll be around on the boards all day regardless of the result, and if it does go pear shaped I hope people show a little bit of perspective and understanding. I've seen comments almost implying that spending money doesn't matter, the evidence is obvious that it really really does and until the owners PROPERLY back the manager, any achievements/title challenges/cup runs are a bonus rather than the sensible expectation.

It's interesting to note that if we do lost today we will have exactly the same number of points after exactly the same number of games that led to the firing of Rodgers. Much more interesting than that though is the fact that since Jürgen took over, he has spent the princely sum of 33 million quid NET, (in 3 windows) whereas Mourinho since he took over at Man Utd has spent 238 million quid NET. Guardiola at Man City has probably spent more. Does it make a difference? Of course it does.

If we don't win the treble this season, don't shoot the manager.   

Still being as stubborn as every ay Jürgen.

C'MONNNNNN REDMEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Logging off but I'll leave this here now.

Took off our three most threatening players and ended up with our reserves in attack.

Left probably the worst midfield trio in the top 6 on the pitch.

Waited until the 75th minute for a sub.

None of this is making sense.

13 points from 8 games! That's one more point than Brendan had at this stage when he got the boot.
Of course I'm not suggesting that should happen to Jürgen, but it puts our start in perspective.

Logging off but I'll leave this here now.

Took off our three most threatening players and ended up with our reserves in attack.

Left probably the worst midfield trio in the top 6 on the pitch.

Waited until the 75th minute for a sub.

None of this is making sense.

Did that against Newcastle too.

Seems his only move.

13 points from 8 games! That's one more point than Brendan had at this stage when he got the boot.
Of course I'm not suggesting that should happen to Jürgen, but it puts our start in perspective.

No other way of dressing that as other than sh*t.

Sorry, but people consoling themselves with 'we created 2 and half chances' and should have won, clearly have their heads in the sand.

Those numbers aren't telling us we're unlucky like some would have you believe.

We lose against spurs 1 win in 9 matches Christ manger would get sack for that

13 points from 8 games! That's one more point than Brendan had at this stage when he got the boot.
Of course I'm not suggesting that should happen to Jürgen, but it puts our start in perspective.

The start was harder that year too, (Man Utd away, Arsenal away, Everton away, Stoke away amongst them).

The important thing is though that we don't knee jerk again and turn on the boss. We absolutely were the better side today so nobody should be despondant.

Some genuine questions so genuine answers please.

1) how good is Klopp tactically

2) how good is Klopp at coaching

3) does he see his teams weakness

4) does he see his opponets weakness

5) what was is finest moment at Liverpool

6) was the answer tio 5 down to him?

13 points from 8 games! That's one more point than Brendan had at this stage when he got the boot.
Of course I'm not suggesting that should happen to Jürgen, but it puts our start in perspective.

We took 10 from our first 8 back in 2005.

And then we went on a 10 match winning run, conceding just once against Everton during the Christmas period.

I somehow doubt that we'll go on a similar run this season when you compare the two sides.

Some genuine questions so genuine answers please.

1) how good is Klopp tactically

2) how good is Klopp at coaching

3) does he see his teams weakness

4) does he see his opponets weakness

5) what was is finest moment at Liverpool

6) was the answer tio 5 down to him?

7) calm down and go and have a pint.

7) calm down and go and have a pint.

Read the first line. No answers whats the point of replying?

Im ok for a pint. Im not that upset over today. Didnt expect any better

Logging off but I'll leave this here now.

Took off our three most threatening players and ended up with our reserves in attack.

Left probably the worst midfield trio in the top 6 on the pitch.

Waited until the 75th minute for a sub.

None of this is making sense.

The first half I agree with the first half of that, however in fairness the bench didn't exactly have a difference maker on it and the team was playing reasonably well.

1) how good is Klopp tactically

Fantastic, judging by the fact we've got the best record against the best managers I thought that would be obvious. Also we create almost the most amount of chances, concede one of the least amounts of shots on target in the entire league. All pointing to his tactical prowess. A manager cannot coach out individual mistakes, he cannot make a striker clinical once a chance presents itself. He could buy better players, that's for sure but in terms of tactics his are usually spot on.

2) how good is Klopp at coaching

Brilliant, by far the best in the world in my opinion. More players will improve under him than any other coach around, it's what he believes in more than most of the other top coaches.

3) does he see his teams weakness

Considering his top two targets in the summer were Keita and VvD that should answer itself and when we get VvD and Keita you'll see a much more balanced and cohesive unit.

4) does he see his opponets weakness

Again, we create the most chances, or thereabout, so the answer to this should be obvious. Also we have one of the highest possession stats, seems to me to point towards a good understanding of where they can be exploited and where we can gain advantage.

5) what was is finest moment at Liverpool

Taking us to the Europa League final by producing a breathtaking performance against Borussia Dortmund so far. Or dumping the Mancs out of Europe, both fantastic.

6) was the answer tio 5 down to him?

Without question, the first was the feeling in the crowd, the emotion and belief which he brought with him and which powered us through that first season in the cups. The second, well when you consider our record against any of the top 6 prior to him arriving then dumping the Mancs out of Europe has to be down to him.

Some genuine questions so genuine answers please.

1) how good is Klopp tactically

Seems a bit average so far. We seem to play one way whether we are 5-0 up, chasing a game, or looking to see a game out. Scratch that, we have never tried to see a game out under Klopp. He has struggled with bus parkers for the most part since he's been here, so that also tells me his tactics aren't working too well.

2) how good is Klopp at coaching

We are terrible in defence and set pieces, and have been since his first day here. That said, I don't know as I'm not at Melwood but going by the performances on the pitch, I'd say it's fair to say the coaching isn't reaping the rewards we'd hoped for. Or I'd hoped for.

3) does he see his teams weakness

I think so. I hope so. He wanted VvD and Keita so yes I think he's clued up on it. I think his loyalty to players and probably more so, his determination to do it his way leaves him tripping himself up.

4) does he see his opponets weakness

Hard to say. Against the top 5 teams, yes? Against the other 14, no.

5) what was is finest moment at Liverpool

Silverware aside, it has to be the 4-3 Dortmund semi-final game. But to be honest, for me he hasn't had one. Two cup final defeats don't count. LFC is about winning trophies.

6) was the answer tio 5 down to him?

Not sure. Against Sevilla, I think the players let him down. They bottled it. Against City, it was a penalty shootout and anything can happen then. That said, any manager who has ever picked 11 players has to take some share of the blame.

Well we didn’t lose, I guess that’s something. A clean sheet so I guess that’s our defensive issues sorted.

Our system is flawed. ManU had 2 big chances as we had 2 big chances, but we had more ball possession and played to win while ManU just played not to lose (which is the reason our defense did not really get tested, so forget to praise them). This is very typical for the last months: we make the game but when you look at what really counts - high probability chances - we are even with our opponents. That's bad news. We play inefficient.

Coach Pippen would prescribe a new system. Offense: whenever you have the ball, not more than 10 possessions and then either passing vertical into the box, shooting directly to the goal or a cross into the box. Defense: No pressing, but generally a high positioning esp. of forwards and midfielders, play like ManU today.