I wanted to see how much we have to do in our remaining games of the season in order to gain Champions League qualification and wanted to share what I found with everyone.
Before I start I want to stress that I do not see CL qualification as a requirement under the new manager, I'm sure like many on here at the start of the season I saw it as an expectation however with the change of manager now I rather see this as an "expectation free" season where Klopp can implement his style on the squad and maybe recruit some players that might help mould it, anything we achieve this season is a bonus.
I know statistics are not everyones cup of tea so I have tried to use them as minimally as possibe where I can.
I started by looking at the last 10 seasons and the points needed to finish 1st to 6th. Over the last ten years these are the average points needed to finish in each position and the corresponding points per game needed to get to this points tally.
1st - 87.4 points per season - 2.30 points per game
2nd - 82.3 points per season - 2.17 points per game
3rd - 76.4 points per season - 2.01 points per game
4th - 71.2 points per season - 1.87 points per game
5th - 65.5 points per season - 1.72 points per game
6th - 62.3 points per season - 1.64 points per game
At this stage of the season we have played 12 games and gained 17 points this gives a points per game of 1.42.
With 26 games left to play we need to achive 54.2 points in order to reach the average points tally of the fourth placed team in the last ten years which is 71.2 i.e. 2.08 points per game.
To achieve this we need to now have the form of a team that over the course of a full season would finish between 2nd and 3rd.
For the very optimistic on the forum to finish 3rd we would need 2.28 points per game from here out meaning we would have to have the same form of a team that you would expect to be title winners.
For me there is a number of things that can influenece whether we can acheive these points per games:
1. Fixture list - Comparing points tallies with what we should have now to finish fourth based on 1.87 points per game we are under performing by 24%. The fixture list is definitley a component of that with us getting some hard fixtures out of the way, easier fixtures from the Xmas period on might help erode that negative 24%.
2. Injuries - We have sustained a fair amount of injuries this season especially to players who were performing well and/or players who would be in the starting line up if fit. Players like Gomez, Ings, Sturridge, Henderson, Benteke, Sakho and Firminio spring to mind. Once we get everyone or the majority of players back we could improve the points per game ratio.
3. New manger - Normally when a team is under performing and the manager is replaced, the team tends to over perform for a period in order to revert back to its average. Klopp has been in charge 4 PL games and achieved 1 Win, 2 Draws and 1 Loss, this is the same as the previous 4 games under old mangement, with the fixtures being relatively similar. There could be a few reasons for this, the injuries sustained by players since Klopp has took charge have been substantial or Liverpool were infact not underperforming when mangement was changed. Whatever the case, I believe Klopp to be a step up and could help Liverpool increase the points per game ratio
4. Quality of the league this year - With 2.30 points per game needed to win the title, Man City currently top the table with 26 points from 12 games giving them a points per game of 2.16 just below the average and Man Utd in 4th with 24pts from 12 played giving 2.00 points per game slightly over the average, we might see a higher points total needed for 4th than usual years while a lower total might be needed to win the title, we may see the lower places being more competitve.
All in all I want to see if people on here think we can acheive the form to get 2.08 points per game and play like a 2nd or 3rd placed team for the remainder of the season?
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