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      LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18

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      JD
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      LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Aug 17, 2017 12:54:38 pm
      Link to last season's thread - https://www.lfcreds.com/reds/index.php?topic=49199.0



      No point in getting the graphs etc out until after a few games or so but here's a reminder of the way we analyse how difficult each game is

      Title Target (87 points)

      Requirements:
      Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Last seasons top 4).
      Win your 11 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (For us, last seasons 5th to 9th) . Defeated at your hardest 3 (Top 3).

      P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

      A current score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for the title - below that suggests you are outside title form.

      Top Four Target (70 points)

      Requirements:
      Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 . Defeated by hardest 2 teams
      Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5. Defeated at the hardest 6.

      P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

      A score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for a top 4 spot - below that suggests you are outside top 4 form.



      And after the first round of games

      Liverpool's result at Watford was poor, starting the season with -2 in both the title and top four chase.
      Chelsea's was worse - losing to Burnley was a -3 in both the title and top four chase.

      Not a great start for us and them.

      Everton, United, City, Spurs and Arsenal all got expected results on the opening day so remain on 0 (on track).

      It's not a great start for Liverpool because we didn't actually fall into negative figures last season (for the title) until after matchday 14.  And the reds will remain in negative figures after our the second game because they are expected to beat Crystal Palace so no chance to gain analysis points.
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #1: Aug 27, 2017 08:52:01 pm
      After 3 games

      Liverpool beating Arsenal was a good result (+2pts better than expected) and therefore wipes out the 2 points dropped when we only drew against Watford on the opening day.

      Man Utd have three expected wins against standard opposition.

      Arsenal and Spurs have had two poor results in the last two games. 

      And Everton, although they only have 4 Premier League points, have actually done 1 point better than expected (hence why they are included here).  They have collected 1 point from their hardest and 3rd hardest Premier League away games.

      Race for the Title

      Everton +1
      Man Utd 0
      Liverpool 0
      Man City 0
      Chelsea 0
      Spurs -3
      Arsenal -4

      Race for the top four

      Man City +2
      Chelsea +2
      Everton +1
      Man Utd 0
      Liverpool 0
      Spurs -2
      Arsenal -3
      « Last Edit: Aug 27, 2017 09:50:37 pm by JD »
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #2: Aug 28, 2017 10:15:50 am
      Also another team that have started well is Burnley.

      A win and a draw away at last seasons champions and runners up was excellent but badly let down by a bad result of losing at home to West Brom.  They're +1 at the moment for both (same as Everton).

      Southampton, last years 8th placed team, have had a woeful start as well - they're -4 for both already.  Doesn't look like a season of them taking the next step forward.
      Diego LFC
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #3: Aug 28, 2017 03:26:59 pm
      It says a lot about the kindhearted human being you are John, that you've bothered to include Everton in the race for the league title list. ;D
      AZPatriot
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #4: Aug 28, 2017 03:59:58 pm
      Also another team that have started well is Burnley.

      Tell you what Klopps mate over at Huddersfield can't be hating life right now...7 out of the first 9 points for a promoted squads not too bad.
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #5: Aug 29, 2017 12:00:59 am
      Tell you what Klopps mate over at Huddersfield can't be hating life right now...7 out of the first 9 points for a promoted squads not too bad.

      True as a promoted team but they're -2 and -2 if we were including them for these high standards so nothing to write home about, yet. 😉
      bigvYNWA
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #6: Aug 29, 2017 12:23:59 am


      Southampton, last years 8th placed team, have had a woeful start as well - they're -4 for both already.  Doesn't look like a season of them taking the next step forward.

      No point holding on to an expensive defensive player then, should just let him move to that club he wants to move on to - forget which club, but they should let it happen regardless 8)

      Nice work on this thread, love me some metrics.

      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #7: Sep 11, 2017 11:43:26 pm
      Forget the actual League Table - it's time to analyse matchday 4 properly.

      The worst result of the weekend?  Yes - happy to report it was Manchester United.  Their draw at Stoke, who finished 13th, was a -2 point expected result for a title push and for a top four side.

      Liverpool's trip to Man City was our 3rd hardest away game.  An expected loss, even if you were going for the title.  Zero change there.

      On the flip side for Man City it was a good result.  It was their 3rd hardest home game, so anything better than a draw is a good result.  They get +2 points.

      As it stands (and I do hope I can stop including Everton soon)

      Title

      1. Man City +2
      2. Chelsea 0
      2. Everton 0
      2. Liverpool 0
      5. Spurs -1
      6. Man Utd -2
      7. Arsenal -4

      Top Four

      1. Man City +4
      1. Chelsea +4
      3. Everton +1
      3. Spurs +1
      5. Liverpool 0
      6. Man Utd -2
      7. Arsenal -3

      Hope that improves the mood.

      It's a bit early for graphs, but here goes anyway.





      PS. Yeah - it says 2016/17 on the graphs but it's this year.
      « Last Edit: Sep 12, 2017 12:02:42 am by JD »
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #8: Sep 13, 2017 08:19:22 am
      Also another team that have started well is Burnley.

      Just to add that after matchday 4 they are still doing well - they remain +1 for both tables which if I was including them would put them 2nd and 3rd in the tables!  A crazy bet for European football?

      Liverpool's next game is against Burnley.

      At the bottom end - Crystal Palace are -10 and -9 after just 4 games.  A horrible start.  And from the teams who ended last season in the top half Southampton look in the biggest trouble.  They are on -7 for both - van Dijk can't come back soon enough for them.
      Scouser4life
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #9: Sep 13, 2017 02:30:48 pm
      Just to add that after matchday 4 they are still doing well - they remain +1 for both tables which if I was including them would put them 2nd and 3rd in the tables!  A crazy bet for European football?

      Liverpool's next game is against Burnley.

      At the bottom end - Crystal Palace are -10 and -9 after just 4 games.  A horrible start.  And from the teams who ended last season in the top half Southampton look in the biggest trouble.  They are on -7 for both - van Dijk can't come back soon enough for them.

      Nice read. Always looking forward to this analysis cos looking at the league table in isolation without considering the fixtures can be sometimes misleading even though momentum also matters a lot in football.

      Just provides a different insight into how we manage expectation and not every defeat leads to a crisis, though I would love my beloved LFC to win all the games.
      redindian
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #10: Sep 13, 2017 03:04:33 pm
      Liverpool's trip to Man City was our 3rd hardest away game. 

      JD, how do you say that it is the 3rd hardest away game? Is it based on historical performance or is it based on the theoretical assumption that United and Everton are tougher?
       

      Scouser4life
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #11: Sep 13, 2017 03:16:59 pm
      JD, how do you say that it is the 3rd hardest away game? Is it based on historical performance or is it based on the theoretical assumption that United and Everton are tougher?
       

      read the 1st post. Its based on last season's league table.

      Man City came 3rd.
      redindian
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #12: Sep 13, 2017 03:22:25 pm
      read the 1st post. Its based on last season's league table.

      Man City came 3rd.

      Apologies.. And, Thank you!
      Scouser4life
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #13: Sep 13, 2017 03:23:12 pm

      U welcome and please no reason to apologize. Glad to be of service
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #14: Sep 18, 2017 10:04:22 pm
      Wish I hadn't highlighted Burnley doing well.

      Man City's massive hammering of Watford nets them 0 points for both.
      Man Utd beating Everton gets them +2 points only for their top four challenge.
      Chelsea no change for their home draw v Arsenal.
      Spurs home draw with Swansea, and the reds drawing with Burnley hits them and us both with a -2 pointer for both tables.  :(
      Arsenal's draw was a point better than expected. +1 for both tables for them.

      The actual league table looks pretty horrible for Evertonians, and I hate to provide them with any food for thought, but they haven't actually had a horrible result yet.  Some dodgy scorelines, but we're only interested in the points compared to expected results.

      They have played their hardest, 3rd hardest and 6th hardest away games.  They have also played their 2nd most difficult home game.

      The 5 point gap between Liverpool and Man City looks true, but the 5 point gap between the reds and Man Utd is exaggerated.
       
      Title

      1. Man City +2
      2. Chelsea 0
      3. Everton -1
      4. Liverpool -2
      4. Man Utd -2
      6. Spurs -3
      6. Arsenal -3

      Top Four

      1. Man City +4
      1. Chelsea +4
      3. Everton +1
      4. Man Utd 0
      5. Spurs -1
      6. Liverpool -2
      7. Arsenal -2



      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #15: Sep 30, 2017 06:49:06 pm
      Forgot to add these due to the midweek European games.  This is up to last weeks games, matchday 6 in the Premier League.

      Pretty much expected results for all the teams from last seasons top 7.

      Liverpool and Man Utd with better than expected away results in terms of a top four chase. 

      Title target



      Top four target



      Tadders
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #16: Oct 04, 2017 05:02:14 pm
      not sure if this still means our back 5 are sh*t?
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #17: Oct 16, 2017 11:33:07 am
      Bad last two games for Liverpool.

      2 points dropped against Newcastle and 2 points dropped at home to last season's 6th placed side means the reds are 6 points off the chase for a title.  A win against Spurs away next week would make a big difference to LFC's placing.

      Man City's 2 point lead in the league is more like a 5 point lead given who they have played compared to United.



      The draw against United as bad for us in terms of Champions League qualification.

      HScRed1
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #18: Oct 16, 2017 11:41:51 am
      Bad last two games for Liverpool.

      2 points dropped against Newcastle and 2 points dropped at home to last season's 6th placed side means the reds are 6 points off the chase for a title.  A win against Spurs away next week would make a big difference to LFC's placing.

      Man City's 2 point lead in the league is more like a 5 point lead given who they have played compared to United.



      The draw against United as bad for us in terms of Champions League qualification.



      3 pts off Spurs the team I reckon we need to beat to secure Top 4 so not all doom and gloom as so often suggested on here.

      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #19: Oct 23, 2017 01:16:40 pm
      Right then..

      Expected result for Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea
      Great result for Spurs, Arsenal
      Horrible result for Man Utd

      Title

      Man City only team posting credible title winning results so far in the league.  Starting to look highly unlikely that Liverpool could even get back to zero on this chart - never mind hauling in City.



      Top Four

      Arsenal back level with Liverpool - Man Utd gap to both of us is now 2 points based on games played.  There's not a huge difference in 3rd to 6th here to be honest (just a 3 point gap) so plenty of time for this to change.



      PGlynn91
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #20: Oct 23, 2017 05:53:04 pm
      Really like this thread but for Liverpool its hard to read. Games we are expected to win we will lose and then we could be world beaters in the big games. Obviously the pattern so far is sh*t in both categories!
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #21: Oct 23, 2017 07:12:46 pm
      Games we are expected to win we will lose and then we could be world beaters in the big games. Obviously the pattern so far is sh*t in both categories!

      To be fair we've won all our games so far against teams in the bottom half this season. 2/2.  ;)
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #22: Oct 30, 2017 02:58:11 pm
      Matchday 10

      A little bit annoying for the reds.  Liverpool got the win, but when you're expected to win it's nowhere near as much fun for this graph.

      Especially when Man Utd and even Chelsea got decent results.

      Not a lot to separate United, Spurs and Chelsea even if their current league points cover a 4 point gap. 

      At the top of the table, if anything the 5 point gap City have in the real league table is actually underplaying their advantage.

      Title



      Top Four

      « Last Edit: Oct 30, 2017 03:15:05 pm by JD »
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #23: Oct 30, 2017 03:37:55 pm
      Just to add, after 10 games last season Liverpool were +8 pts compared to top four form (-2pts now).  So that's a 10 point lower figure this season.

      Also the top four teams in the graph at that stage, Liverpool, City, Chelsea and Spurs would all go on to finish in the top four.

      Sorry everybody!

      Small crumb of comfort is that Liverpool's next few games do give them an opportunity to move back up, at least in the top four chase.

      Top four expected results

      West Ham (A) - expected draw
      Southampton (H) - expected draw
      Chelsea (H) - expected defeat
      Stoke (A) - expected win

      IF we were to win the next 4 (unlikely I know) we would be on +5 for top four.  (after 14 games last season we were on +6).

      But there isn't as much room to improve our standing in the title table though.

      Title expected results

      West Ham (A) - expected win
      Southampton (H) - expected win
      Chelsea (H) - expected draw
      Stoke (A) - expected win
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #24: Nov 06, 2017 09:01:30 am
      Title

      Liverpool's two wins in the league in the past week have simply led to stabilisation - we're still -6 points compared to title form considering who we have played.  And that is in a normal season - not one in which Man City are breaking the records that they are.

      Not only are Man City the only team displaying title form - but they are already +7 points ahead of what is required ie. they've won 2 and drawn 1 game they could have afforded to lose.

      Liverpool have played 11 games this season but 9 of those games have been against teams currently in the top 12.  We've only played 2 of the bottom 8 sides so far (and unusually for us we did win both of those).



      Top Four

      The win over West Ham does give LFC a 2 point boost in the race for the top four.  We move ahead of Arsenal here and are right on the edge of top four form.  Unfortunately there are 4 teams ahead of us - but the 'real' gap to Spurs and Man Utd is 3 points at the moment.

      Beating Southampton at home next time we play would give the reds another 2 points in this table, but not in the title table. 

      « Last Edit: Nov 06, 2017 11:33:40 am by JD »

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