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      LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18

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      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #25: Nov 27, 2017 10:25:31 am
      Matchday 13

      Title

      City still the team looking phenomenal.  They have 7 points more than would have been expected of a title winning side based on games played.  They haven't had a particularly easy start to the season opposition wise but it is clearly unprecedented.  Basically they could lose 2 games against the bottom 4 in the league and still be above the threshold.

      Surely no catching them this season from anybody.  In fact no other team has been above the line yet.  Chelsea have had a more difficult set of games than Man Utd and are level with them.

      Liverpool have had 4 expected results (from the last 4) for title winning sides but obviously dropped 6 points in those early season draws against Watford, Burnley and Newcastle so no movement there.



      Top Four

      More positive news here.

      Despite being just behind Arsenal and Spurs in the real table, the reds have had better results than both London clubs in terms of a top four chase and are level with Man United here.

      Note Chelsea's impressive results - both graphs combined suggest that Chelsea, not Man Utd are Man City's closest challengers.



      stagwood
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #26: Jan 15, 2018 11:01:33 am
      Hi, is there any chance of an update? this is always one of the threads that i look forward to reading. I understand it has been christmas, etc. and its not always easy to update things like this so was just a quick enquiry.
      Robby The Z
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #27: Feb 05, 2018 09:57:49 pm

      Interested in where we are on this after the draw with Spurs and Chelsea's awful result tonight.
      Scotia
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #28: Feb 05, 2018 09:58:59 pm
      Just said in another thread - mods feel free to delete but.....


      What a basket case football is now in the Premiership.

      If he is binned - the last 3 managers to win the title haven’t made it out of the next season.

      Maureen
      Raineri
      Conte

      😲😲😲
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #29: Feb 05, 2018 10:28:26 pm
      Yeah. Gonna update this. Should be interesting because we've only got 4 left against the top half so my instinct is we're 'doing better'
      PGlynn91
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #30: Feb 06, 2018 02:51:07 pm
      Yeah. Gonna update this. Should be interesting because we've only got 4 left against the top half so my instinct is we're 'doing better'

      The problem is we are all more nervous watching Liverpool against teams in the bottom half than the top!
      Harrisimo
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #31: Feb 07, 2018 12:01:28 am
      Looking for a strong attacking line up V Soton...and now I want Arsenal to batter those cheating b***ard Spurs.

      I've really got the hump with Pochettino now...he was 5th last season...if it's only 5th this time..I hope he gets the boot. Bugger off to Real...and take those two divers, Dele Ali and Sugar Kane with yer.
      PGlynn91
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #32: Feb 07, 2018 09:59:38 am
      Looking for a strong attacking line up V Soton...and now I want Arsenal to batter those cheating b***ard Spurs.

      I've really got the hump with Pochettino now...he was 5th last season...if it's only 5th this time..I hope he gets the boot. Bugger off to Real...and take those two divers, Dele Ali and Sugar Kane with yer.

      He was 2nd last season?
      Scotia
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #33: Feb 07, 2018 10:05:38 am

      Yep and 3rd 15/16 but only could because the arse fell out their season when they couldn’t pip Leicester.......
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #34: Feb 07, 2018 01:55:45 pm
      Matchday 26

      Forget the size of Man City's lead - they've been the only side to show title form anyway (although Man Utd briefly touched the kind of form in an average year would give you a chance)

      Liverpool 9 points off normal title form so irrespective of Man City's exceptional form, still some way to go.  Worth noting too, that here LFC have been 5th best for majority of the season.

      Matchday 4 was when Man City first crossed into better than title form.



      Top Four then?

      Liverpool have been extremely consistent across the season in terms of results expected by a top four club.  I'd imagine this is somewhat different to ups and downs last year.  Liverpool have been generally 4th best throughout the season, but there is an interesting battle developing due to Chelsea's huge recent drop off in form, and Spurs showing some signs of life.

      First 13 games Liverpool looked like they were narrowly going to be squeezed out of 4th.  The next 13 games they looked like they would narrowly squeeze IN the top four. 

      At the moment, based on opposition faced, it really is a 3 horse race for 3rd and 4th.





      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #35: Feb 07, 2018 02:02:12 pm
      And a brief comparison with last year, after 26 games

      Title Form
      2017-18 -9 pts (3rd best)
      2016-17 -10 pts (4th best)

      Top Four
      2017-18 +4pts (3rd best)
      2016-17 +3pts (Joint 4th best w/ Man Utd)
      Robby The Z
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #36: Feb 07, 2018 03:10:32 pm
      And a brief comparison with last year, after 26 games

      Title Form
      2017-18 -9 pts (3rd best)
      2016-17 -10 pts (4th best)

      Top Four
      2017-18 +4pts (3rd best)
      2016-17 +3pts (Joint 4th best w/ Man Utd)

      Thanks for these. Always interesting.
      My  main takeaway is that we MUST get results against the bottom half teams (same imperative applies to Chelsea and Spurs). That's how we will finish 3rd or 4th.

      I had been thinking 2nd is within reach, and I suppose on one level it is, but United's form is more consistent than I realized. As far as the CL goes, 2nd is worth about the same as 3rd in that it gets us into the final 32 and not needing a qualifier (I know there is a difference in prize money).

      Also reminds how significant the late decisions in the Spurs match were, and how important the May 5 match at Chelsea could be.


      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #37: Feb 07, 2018 04:50:22 pm
      As far as the CL goes, 2nd is worth about the same as 3rd in that it gets us into the final 32 and not needing a qualifier

      Makes a slight difference in the CL as well.  Think the CL TV money is split 40%,30%,20%,10% based on where you finished.
      Robby The Z
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #38: Feb 07, 2018 05:11:54 pm
      Makes a slight difference in the CL as well.  Think the CL TV money is split 40%,30%,20%,10% based on where you finished.

      OK, Didn't know that.

      And what percentage of that money will be arriving in my bank account?  ;) ;D
      The Real Donavan Ried
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #39: Feb 07, 2018 07:02:26 pm
      Makes a slight difference in the CL as well.  Think the CL TV money is split 40%,30%,20%,10% based on where you finished.
      JD... All these graphs and all these colored lines...You haven't been taking acid again...??  ;D
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #40: Feb 15, 2018 02:19:20 pm
      After Matchday 27 - looking good!

      Title Race

      This has been Man City's all along - since very early in the season really.



      Top Four

      Liverpool nudge themselves back into second, Spurs also with a good result.  Fair enough Southampton are not the side they were last season - but remember all teams are judged on the same basis.

      5 teams all displaying better than normal top four form.  Been a huge dropoff in Chelsea's form because they were looking the strongest of the '4' chasing 2nd to 4th.  Surely they will see their fortunes improve in the final 11 games.

      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2017-18
      Reply #41: Mar 22, 2018 01:07:53 pm
      Been 3 games since the last update (4 for us).

      Obviously as the season approaches the end these stats more closely mirror the actual league table.  The differences in a difficult start, a more difficult Christmas get ironed out - but here goes.

      The Title

      I suppose the picture is that after Man City coasting after the half-way stage they've picked up the baton again and are off on another mini surge.  They have accumulated 23 points more right now than would be expected for a team going for the title.  It's hard to imagine we will ever see it repeated - and it's not like the teams behind have been completely hopeless either.

      Arsenal clinging on with dear life to remain in this graphic.

      With regards to Liverpool - well apart from a two games spell after matchdays 3 and 4 - it never looked on really as the graph shows.

      Matchday 6 and Matchday 15 started a couple of mini wobbles that put pay to any hope of getting 86+ points.  It's kind of been 'steadyish' since then but looking back, by matchday 8 the ongoing title dream was once again shelved.  A disappointment because the same was probably said last season only around the half way stage.



      Top Four

      Five strong contenders for the top four.  At this point last season we didn't have five teams all 'above the line' for the top four places.  Liverpool have had 4 steady results for a team going for the top four (getting something at Old Trafford would have been a good result).

      The problem for the reds has been that Spurs and Man Utd have had an upturn in their form - and looking at the graph - with Chelsea having stabilised results the concern could be that Chelsea are about to themselves have another upturn in form.

      Most weeks this season, the reds have actually been in 5th or 6th place in terms of results.  Spurs ended last season very well (https://www.lfcreds.com/reds/index.php/topic,49199.msg2045242.html#msg2045242) remember.

      « Last Edit: Mar 22, 2018 01:12:29 pm by JD »

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