The goalkeeper situation

I could swear there was already a thread about this subject created this season, but I did a few searches and could not find any. If there is one and I'm just a terrible searcher, I apologise.

Well, the goalkeeper situation. One of the most discussed topics by Liverpool fans. No one is happy - nothing new to see here.

However, today I came across some interesting stats which I thought worth sharing. Here they go:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946848173624119296

How to read this: the most important column is the last one, which basically tells us if, based on the model built by the author, a goalkeeper is underperforming (below 100%), just about average (100% or thereabouts) or overperforming (significantly above 100%).

Some of you may be familiar with an increasingly popular metric called Expected Goals (expG for short). Through the analysis of significant amounts of shots data, these models assign a "expected goal" value to each shot based on parameters such as shot location (ex: the more central and closer to goal, greater the percentage of scoring) and may also include other factors, ie game state (if a team is winning, drawing or losing, and by how much), type of pass leading to the shot (a long one, a short one, a cross, etc), and many others. There are many different Expected Goals models around the internet, and each may be slightly different depending on the variables under consideration. None of them are perfect, of course, but the resulting data can generate some interesting insights.

The idea is similar for the PostShotxG stat in the table above, which can give us an idea of how a goalkeeper is faring based on the quality of the shots he has faced - if he has conceded fewer goals than what on average is scored in those situations, performed just to expectation or is really above average. As the author himself explains:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947101574173790208

So coming back to the first tweet, what this table is showing is that, based on that specific model, the last time a Liverpool goalkeeper actually saved more shots on target than expected was 2010, and even so only by a small margin. The following two years, Reina slightly underperformed (again, by that metric), but what is even more telling is that, even in his worst years, his Save Efficiency % is still higher than that of any other LFC goalkeeper ever since.

We can also take a look at Simon Mignolet's career numbers:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947193082679889921

And Loris Karius:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947210546260135938

By comparison, we can take a look at truly world class goalkeepers:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947082520021143552

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946685956064759808

As the author himself has suggested, there are factors which the model does not explain or adjusts for - such as the fact that Mignolet most likely had more protection at a defensive minded Sunderland than at an open, attacking Liverpool, and this affects his numbers. This is why numbers like that of Neuer for an attacking Bayern side are probably even more formidable.

However, as interesting as they are, the model and the tweets above are solely concerned with shots. It has nothing to say on other aspects of a goalkeeper's performance, such as the ability to catch crosses, to do a sweeping role, to distribute the ball quickly and effectively, among others - some of which are of increasing importance in today's game, and also in how Liverpool FC plays.

In pretty much all of those, Pepe Reina was also vastly superior to his successors (from my own observations, not that of any particular model). Personally, what I find most mystifying is why a manager like Brendan Rodgers, who was always insistent on the need to build from the back, and demanded a sort of technical quality from his defenders that many other managers don't, switched a natural "sweeper keeper" such as Reina for one so inept with the ball on his feet, and so brutally indecisive with the ball in his hands that he constantly slows play down like Mignolet. I really cannot remember any other keeper to have been punished by that 6 seconds rule, and he wasn't even trying to waste time!

One could also argue that a similar logic applies to Klopp, who likes his players to be comfortable on the ball and be fast and precise in transitions. Simon Mignolet and "heavy metal football" could not be further apart.

This situation seriously needs sorting, and very soon. Let us not forget that Karius, despite being relatively young, was brought to the club expected to be first choice. He was given the number 1 shirt on arrival and started the first few games of the 16/17 season. It was only due to his poor performances that he later became confined to the bench. This suggests to me that Klopp has identified the need to upgrade on Mignolet quite a while ago, but as things have not turned out as he expected, he's since refused to look for solutions in the transfer market again.

For me, I feel like the boss has either to stick with Karius and give him a chance to prove himself until the end of the season, or look to purchase a new goalkeeper as soon as possible. Mignolet has been long enough at the club to show he's not a good fit for us - both as a shot stopper and in terms of style of play. Watching his kicks live from the stadium probably reduced my life expectancy by a few days, weeks or months.

If we have the funds to spend heavily, there are very few keepers (if any) that we could reasonably expect to attract who are better than this man:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946687832084697088

Oblak is only 24 years old (soon to be 25) and could own the position for many years to come.

But there are also other quality goalkeepers out there. One of my personal favourites is Alisson - he's been getting better and better lately, and more comfortable on the ball.

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947189661037887488

Or if Jürgen would like to consider another German GK:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947222738044891142

Plus, there are other interesting goalkeepers out there which this guy hasn't posted any data about, but which I believe would also be an upgrade on what we currently have, such as Pavlenka (Werder Bremen), Strakosha (Lazio), etc. We have just addressed one major issue in central defence; let's now please address a longstanding issue between the sticks.

TL;DR version: please make Mignolet history.

I know he's been debated about quite often on these boards but how much responsibility do you think John Achterberg takes when it comes to the goalkeeping problem as Bruce G alluded to a couple of years ago?

Or does that argument just distract from the real problem ie the quality of Mignolet as a goalkeeper?

Like yourself though I can't ever remember a goalkeeper so contradictory to our gameplan.

He's the only goalkeeper I've seen time waste when chasing the game. And that time in the Europa League when he got booked and conceded an indirect free kick in the box (which led to a goal) for holding onto the ball for too long was utterly extraordinary.

No player has plumbed the depths of stupidity and surreal gaffs quite in the manner Simon Mignolet has. It must be like watching a footballing version of Reeves and Mortimer for opposition fans.

Excellent OP.

While the shots on goal stat is interesting it doesn't paint the full picture for me.

Mignolet has a whole host of problems starting from the way he doesn't dominate at corners or free kicks, his poor delivery and slow delivery.  He consistently makes bad choices.  As someone who can get something on a unexpected shot within 10 yards he does alright - although even though he'll probably palm it back into the middle of the area rather than try and push it wide.

For me, I feel like the boss has either to stick with Karius and give him a chance to prove himself until the end of the season, or look to purchase a new goalkeeper as soon as possible.

I don't know what they are like character wise but I would give Karius an extended run out.  He isn't the finished article but I think he's a better footballer than Simon, and certainly the way he likes to get the ball back out quickly is much closer to the likes of Reina than Reina's replacement is.

Excellent OP.

While the shots on goal stat is interesting it doesn't paint the full picture for me.

Mignolet has a whole host of problems starting from the way he doesn't dominate at corners or free kicks, his poor delivery and slow delivery.  He consistently makes bad choices.  As someone who can get something on a unexpected shot within 10 yards he does alright - although even though he'll probably palm it back into the middle of the area rather than try and push it wide.

I don't know what they are like character wise but I would give Karius an extended run out.  He isn't the finished article but I think he's a better footballer than Simon, and certainly the way he likes to get the ball back out quickly is much closer to the likes of Reina than Reina's replacement is.

Spot on for me JD.

I also like the fact that he makes positive decisions and doesn’t dither.

If he comes out he’s coming thru as much as he can. I’d much rather have a keeper who commits and occasionally gets it wrong than one who’s constantly in “no man’s land”.

Opposition teams love a ditherer...........

My opinion is clear like water from North Canada: Mig is da man. Give him CL and PL and he'll be a decent keeper, not deGea or Neuer, but decent. But since Jürgen decided to play dirty then just plug in Karius, for god's sake. I cannot envision Mig playing with swagger and confidence after what happened the last weeks: got axed from CL, got axed now from PL in the most sneaky way. Jürgen, that is on you! I wish you some bad mexican food and some hours in the restrooms to repent from your sins.

My opinion is clear like water from North Canada: Mig is da man. Give him CL and PL and he'll be a decent keeper, not deGea or Neuer, but decent. But since Jürgen decided to play dirty then just plug in Karius, for god's sake. I cannot envision Mig playing with swagger and confidence after what happened the last weeks: got axed from CL, got axed now from PL in the most sneaky way. Jürgen, that is on you! I wish you some bad mexican food and some hours in the restrooms to repent from your sins.

You're a little weird aren't you?

Anyway.

Your point may hold more water if the fact Mignolet hadn't had a history of mistakes and poor performances before Klopp gave Karius  the CL this season

He's had his chances, too many really, over 200 apparences for the  club and its telling how the absolute vast majority rate him that he hasn't done enough and doesn't spread confidence in any of us let alone his defenders in front of him

He's a decent keeper for a decent team. A team , which we do, that has intentions to push on should want better.

If Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Utd, Spurs, even Everton or Burnley were looking for a new keeper it wouldn't be Mignolet. Then add whoever and whatever from around Europe they wouldn't take him either if they needed a new no.1...

He's just not good enough of we want to push on and win things. Karius maybe not either, probably not but I've certainly seen enough of Mignolet (I go every home game) to know that he isn't

He's had his chances, too many really, over 200 apparences for the  club

...with our defense. That is a key point.

...with our defense. That is a key point.

You can't watch enough of the games lad

Our defence has improved, we are having far less chances created against us, and even still we conceed too many

Mignolet has the worst shot to save percentage in the  league

He has let in as many goals as he has saved shots

Take one clear recent goal.
Xhaka against Arsenal, the defence shifted them that the only thing was a speculative 35 yard shot... what happens? Smoke for hands let's it through him

I'd give the game up if you think he's a good keeper.
Decent.. yeah, but if we want to win things we need better than decent

Good OP, though you only have to open your eyes and watch LFC matches to know that Migs HAS to be replaced.
Would like to think we have a keeper in the squad who can step in, but the jury is definitely out on that too.
You look at the number of times DeGea has saved Utds bacon.
Were would we be now with a keeper of his stature, playing for last couple of years, not just making saves but dominating his area and working with his defenders.
Should have done it before now, but you have to think the cheque book needs to come out again ...

My opinion is clear like water from North Canada: Mig is da man. Give him CL and PL and he'll be a decent keeper, not deGea or Neuer, but decent. But since Jürgen decided to play dirty then just plug in Karius, for god's sake. I cannot envision Mig playing with swagger and confidence after what happened the last weeks: got axed from CL, got axed now from PL in the most sneaky way. Jürgen, that is on you! I wish you some bad mexican food and some hours in the restrooms to repent from your sins.

You’re a F***ing moron if you think Migs is the answer. One of the worst keepers in the league. Massive WUM. You think players should be able to consistently make mistakes over and over and keep their place?

I hope Migs never plays for us again.

My opinion is clear like water from North Canada: Mig is da man. Give him CL and PL and he'll be a decent keeper, not deGea or Neuer, but decent. But since Jürgen decided to play dirty then just plug in Karius, for god's sake. I cannot envision Mig playing with swagger and confidence after what happened the last weeks: got axed from CL, got axed now from PL in the most sneaky way. Jürgen, that is on you! I wish you some bad mexican food and some hours in the restrooms to repent from your sins.

Nice disguise there. It's totally obvious that you're Mignolet.

WUM.

What does that even mean?

I hope Migs never plays for us again.

...so does Klopp apparently and so be it. I'd just like Klopp to have the balls to make Karius #1 instead of doing it sneaky and step by step.

What does that even mean?

You have got to be a Merchant that is Winding us Up

I see myself more as a delusional fan.

I see myself more as a delusional fan.

i don't think posting pictures of yourself is enough to derial a Mignolet bashing thread. It's like Christmas again.

Hope these first few replies are not fixated with replying to Pip..

Anyway with so much data on every single aspect of the game being pawed over you would expect the club to know exactly how Mig, or anybody else for that matter, performs.

Have to obviously take into account a mistake by the keeper can often result in a goal and a mistake elsewhere is sometimes ignored as damage is often minimal. But still the stats show Mig as an underperforming keeper to say the least. And the club know it.

No doubt Klopp isn't happy about the situation but he's the one that let it drift. He brought in Karius and then didn't give him long enough to prove himself, one way or the other. The fans verdict on Mig was delivered long ago but the jury is still out on Karius.

Excellent OP.

While the shots on goal stat is interesting it doesn't paint the full picture for me.

Mignolet has a whole host of problems starting from the way he doesn't dominate at corners or free kicks, his poor delivery and slow delivery.  He consistently makes bad choices.  As someone who can get something on a unexpected shot within 10 yards he does alright - although even though he'll probably palm it back into the middle of the area rather than try and push it wide.

I don't know what they are like character wise but I would give Karius an extended run out.  He isn't the finished article but I think he's a better footballer than Simon, and certainly the way he likes to get the ball back out quickly is much closer to the likes of Reina than Reina's replacement is.

I'm of the same opinion regards to Migs, I've always been more worried about his lack of dominance when the ball is in the air than I have been of his shot stopping ability. It's seems the scrutiny of his shot stopping has only recently come into play. The worry for me with Karius is that I don't believe he is any better at dealing with crosses or high takes than Migs, if anything I suspect he is slightly worse BUT we'll only know if he is given an extended run in the side. I finder if Klopp might sneak a look at Ward in the FA Cup against the bitters?

I see myself more as a delusional fan.

Were you in Majorca in August 1989?

Heidi, is that you?

I'm of the same opinion regards to Migs, I've always been more worried about his lack of dominance when the ball is in the air than I have been of his shot stopping ability. It's seems the scrutiny of his shot stopping has only recently come into play. The worry for me with Karius is that I don't believe he is any better at dealing with crosses or high takes than Migs, if anything I suspect he is slightly worse BUT we'll only know if he is given an extended run in the side. I finder if Klopp might sneak a look at Ward in the FA Cup against the bitters?

The vast majority of Keepers have great athletic shot saving ability. It's often the fundamentals that prove a Keepers worth. Mig falls down on the basic stuff, strength in the air, box presence and domination, distribution, defense having confidence in him, vulnerable reputation. I mean he is a good Keeper...but he is not good enough for us...End of.

Has Migs been dropped now or is just a case again of 'resting' him due to the amount of games? Just wondering if Klopp has clarified his position on it?

My take is that both aren't up to it, but unlike others im not adverse to one of them staying on as the number 2 goalkeeper.

Both have weaknesses in their games. Karius can learn and develop some aspects I guess whereas Migs has hit his low ceiling.

Truth is though we should be buying something close to the finished article for our number 1 keeper.

Migs is playing tomorrow

Wikipedia :

Towards the end of the 2012–13 season, rumours suggested that Víctor Valdés was to leave Barcelona for Monaco and Reina was to be his replacement.
According to his father, an agreement had been reached for Reina to sign, but when Valdés chose to stay at Barcelona for another season, no move took place.
[43] In anticipation of Reina's departure, Liverpool had signed Belgian international goalkeeper Simon Mignolet from Sunderland.[44] As a result, on 29 July 2013 Reina completed a loan move to Serie A side Napoli, reuniting him with former Liverpool manager Rafael Benítez.[45]


Reina was loaned out to Napoli for the 2013–14 season. Liverpool (Brendan Rodgers) failed to inform Reina about the loan prior to the move.[46] He had made 394 appearances for Liverpool prior to the loan.[47]


On 28 September, Reina declared that his Liverpool career was over: "At the moment it's difficult to think about being a Liverpool player next year.
They have a young goalkeeper in Simon Mignolet and the manager prefers him to me.
That's the reason why I'm here and he will be at the club next year as well.
There's no reason to think I'll be a Liverpool player from now on but we'll see where the future takes us.
It's been a good move so far and I don't regret what happened.

I would have preferred to say goodbye in a different way."[50]

Source :  Wikipedia.

Interesting reading Pepe's stats .

Interesting reading a bit of history why Rodgers acted on assumptions that didn't materialise and why we ended up with an inferior Mignolet.
Also, as I mentioned at the time, there were a number of "Alpha" players in the team .....Pepe being one of them.
That certainly was no good for Rodger's fragile ego and insecurities.


FFS   P-lease.
Lets get ourselves a top goalie to stop leaking needless goals.

Towards the end of the 2012–13 season, rumours suggested that Víctor Valdés was to leave Barcelona for Monaco and Reina was to be his replacement. According to his father, an agreement had been reached for Reina to sign, but when Valdés chose to stay at Barcelona for another season, no move took place.[43] In anticipation of Reina's departure, Liverpool had signed Belgian international goalkeeper Simon Mignolet from Sunderland.[44] As a result, on 29 July 2013 Reina completed a loan move to Serie A side Napoli, reuniting him with former Liverpool manager Rafael Benítez.[45]


Reina was loaned out to Napoli for the 2013–14 season. Liverpool (Brendan Rodgers) failed to inform Reina about the loan prior to the move.[46] He had made 394 appearances for Liverpool prior to the loan.[47]


On 28 September, Reina declared that his Liverpool career was over: "At the moment it's difficult to think about being a Liverpool player next year. They have a young goalkeeper in Simon Mignolet and the manager prefers him to me. That's the reason why I'm here and he will be at the club next year as well. There's no reason to think I'll be a Liverpool player from now on but we'll see where the future takes us. It's been a good move so far and I don't regret what happened.

I would have preferred to say goodbye in a different way."[50]

Source :  Wikipedia.

Interesting reading Pepe's stats .

Interesting reading a bit of history why Rodgers acted on assumptions that didn't materialise and why we ended up with Mignolet.
Also as I mentioned at the time there were a number of "Alpha" players in the team .....Pepe being one of them.
That was no good for Rodgers fragile ego.


FFS   P-lease.
Lets get ourselves a top goalie to stop leaking needless goals.

Wasn’t a better keeper than Pepe the day he walked into the club and isn’t now.

Simples.