Another fine read from Paul Tomkins, guaranteed to make you feel better and see past the media hype !!
Facts For a Time Capsule
The distorting lens of the past is one of the most deceptive things in football; itâs easy to forget, with the foreshortening of time, how long it took rival managers to build their empires.
I thought it would be advisable to write an article before the United game, that would still apply after it ââ win, lose or draw.
Because whatever happens, itâs just one game. A very important game, which will set some kind of marker and invoke a lot of passion and pride, but not a cup final, and not a title decider. And some things
in football are not fundamentally changed by the result of one game in the first half of the season. The aim was to write something not distorted by either victory or defeat, particularly with the
managerâs job said to still be in the balance.
Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger, English footballâs two outstanding managers since Bob Paisleyâs retirement, remain in place for people to use as examples of BenĂtezâs âfailureâ, while there have also been
some bizarrely unfavourable comparisons with GĂ©rard Houllier (the most recent being by Ian Ridley of the Mail, on Skyâs Sunday Supplement; I know Ridley is a pal of Houllierâs, but what had he been smoking? HE
said âHoullier was sacked for finishing 15 points behind Arsenalâ, when it was the small matter of 30 points).
But since Mourinho departed*, Rafa is compared most with two heavily-established managers, despite still being in the initial stages of his time regarding building an empire at Liverpool. Plenty has changed in
the last two decades, but it is unfair to judge BenĂtez against men whoâve sorted every last details at their clubs over a decade or two, rather than when they were at the same stage of their tenures.
(*Mourinho is perhaps the only modern exception. But he didnât really build an empire: merely breezed in, spent megabucks on an already expensive squad, taking it up to around the ÂŁ300m mark, and blitzed his way to two titles. He did a great job, but it wasnât a comparable situation to that at Liverpool. Avram Grant has done well so far, but heâs not had to build an empire, merely take control of someone elseâs.)
Anyone whoâs read my pieces or books knows that Iâm a big fan of Arsene Wenger. And I have a grudging respect for Alex Ferguson that, even when typing, I note through gritted teeth. But the media have locked in on some lazy stereotypes: BenĂtez, with his crazy rotation and barmy zonal marking (which just happens to lead to hardly any set-piece goals being conceded each season, but letâs ignore that), purveys purely pragmatic football, while his tactics work only in European games.
Football is a subjective issue, but letâs concentrate on some facts:
* Alex Fergusonâs first five seasons, after inheriting a team which
had just finished 4th, were as follows: 11th*, 2nd, 11th, 13th, 6th.
Rafa BenĂtez also inherited a team that had finished 4th, albeit a
whopping 30 points behind the champions (compared with the United of
â86, who were just 12 points behind Dalglishâs champions), but
subsequently finished 5th, 3rd and 3rd. (*In Fergusonâs defence, that
first 11th-place finish came after he took charge in November 1986,
roughly a third of the way into the season.)
* So in his first five seasons, Ferguson took United so far
backwards itâs almost farcical. Perhaps part of this was essential ââ
the idea of one step backwards, two steps forward. But those first
years were five steps backwards to only one step forward. Manchester
United had spent the previous five seasons in the top four before he
arrived. In the five seasons following his arrival, they averaged 9th
in the table. In the five years before Ferguson was appointed, United
were averaging 75 points a season. In the five years after, they
averaged an abysmal 59 ââ just one point more than in BenĂtezâs
Premier League annus horribilis, in year one.
* Alex Ferguson won nothing until the end of his fourth season,
when he landed an FA Cup. He followed this with a Cup Winnersâ Cup in
his fifth season. BenĂtez won a European Cup in his first season and
an FA Cup in his second. He also made two other cup finals in his
first three years, including a second in the Champions League.
* In 1989, Ferguson broke the transfer record on Gary Pallister,
spending ÂŁ2.3m. Steve Bruce and Paul Ince were also fairly expensive
signings around that time, while in 1988 the Red Devils paid what was
then a club record ÂŁ1.8m to buy back Mark Hughes. Fergusonâs capture
of Roy Keane, at ÂŁ3.75m in 1992, also broke the British transfer
record. These fees may not seem stellar now, but they were the ÂŁ30m
deals of their day ââ more expensive, by current terms, than Fernando
Torres, who is more than ÂŁ10m below the current British record, with
roughly a dozen other players (including Ferguson purchases Rooney,
Ferdinand and Veron) also costing significantly more than the Spanish
striker. It took Ferguson four years after this initial heavy
expenditure, and with a lot more further investment, to win the league
title ââ his first âmajorâ honour (league titles and European Cups
obviously being the two major ones big clubs look to win). The season
when Ferguson signed Pallister and Ince, United finished in 13th
place, with a paltry 48 points.
* It took Ferguson between six and nine years to start reaping the
dividends of his revamped youth system. The emergence of Giggs in 1991
was the one early bonus, but Scholes, Butt, Beckham Neville and
Neville first appeared between 1992 and 1995. Even now, in 2007, his
team relies on three of those players. In those terms, BenĂtez would
be relying on GĂ©rard Houllierâs youth recruitments; alas, none proved
good enough.
* Only now, after 11 years in charge, is Arsene Wenger enjoying
more than the occasional bud blossoming from his famed youth set-up,
with half a team constructed from canny scouting work commenced many
years ago. During his first eight years, the only youngsters to be
regulars were Vieira, Anelka and, from 2000 onwards, Ashley Cole. Kolo
Toure arrived aged 20 in Wengerâs sixth season, Fabregas aged 16 in
his eighth.
* By contrast, BenĂtez only began his youth procurement policy in
earnest in 2005; there wasnât time in 2004, when he arrived. With many
of the key players turning out to be BenĂtezâs signings (Hobbs,
Anderson, Antwi, Roque, Hansen, Ajdarevic), Liverpool won the two most
recent FA Youth Cups.
* Wenger, meanwhile, has spent far more money on certain players
than heâs given credit (debit?) for. For instance, look at his major
buys, costing ÂŁ8m* or more: Jeffers (ÂŁ8m), Hleb (ÂŁ10m), Wiltord
(ÂŁ13m), Reyes (deal rising to ÂŁ17m), Van Bronkhurst (ÂŁ8.5m), Henry
(ÂŁ10.5m), Walcott (fee rising to ÂŁ12m), da Silva (reportedly between
ÂŁ8m-ÂŁ16.5m). Not a high amount for 11 years, but not a low one,
either. (*Prices âfactuallyâ correct based on the most reliable
media sources. Bear in mind that, because of footballâs almost ten-
fold inflation since 1992, and two-fold inflation since the late â90s,
ÂŁ8m spent in 1999 is closer to ÂŁ15m in 2007. ÂŁ8m in 1999 was roughly
half the transfer record in England, while ÂŁ15m is half the current
one.) BenĂtez has only thus far signed four players for ÂŁ8m or more:
Kuyt (ÂŁ9.5m), Alonso (ÂŁ10.5m), Babel (ÂŁ11.5m) and Torres (ÂŁ20m). And
while Kuyt has slightly disappointed when it comes to his goal return,
there is not a flop like Jeffers in sight.
* If weâre talking about net spend due to recouping money,
then Wenger has done extremely well. But of course, BenĂtez, who has
also recouped a fair amount of money (his net spend this summer was
only around ÂŁ25m), is in a disadvantaged position when it comes to
comparing transfers this way, as a) after just three years, heâs still
building his first true team, not dismantling it; b) none of his best
players or main signings have asked to leave, unlike Anelka,
Overmars, Petit, Vieira, Ashley Cole and Henry, whose sales netted
Wenger almost all of his transfer income. Some of those players
leaving hindered Arsenal, but of course gave Wenger a lot of money to
reinvest, while others, like Henry and Vieira, left when approaching
their sell-by dates.
* If BenĂtez wished to sell Gerrard, Carragher, Torres, Reina,
Agger, Alonso and Babel (or was forced to by transfer requests,
neither of which is the case), he could raise ÂŁ120m and be trading at
a big profit; thankfully thatâs not his aim. Hopefully theyâll all
leave for a small fee, on account of old age, in a decadeâs time, when
success has given them TLF (Trophy Lifting Fatigue). When it comes to
selling inherited players, BenĂtez was also unlucky to be in a
position to get only £16m in total for Owen and Cissé (whose combined
values were ÂŁ40m in 2003) due to contract length and horrific injuries
respectively.
* Arsene Wengerâs first five seasons resulted in the following
finishes: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 2nd. Very impressive. But âonlyâ one
league title and no other âmajorâ trophies, so while ahead of him on
average league position, on a par with BenĂtez after just three
seasons in terms of major honours. I also feel that the rival managers
to Ferguson and Wenger at the top of the league in the late â90s were
inferior to what we now find: Roy Evans was a great backroom man but
never proved himself as a top-class manager, while Ruud Gullit,
Gianluca Vialli, and David OâLeary are all still relatively young but
unable to get near a top job, having gone into high-profile positions
in the late â90s without any real management experience or coaching
pedigree. This was also the era of pre-Roman Abramovich Chelsea.
* Wengerâs points tallies in his first five seasons were 68, 78, 78,
73 and 70. BenĂtez managed a superior 82 in just his second season. It
doesnât mean that 2006 Liverpool were better than 1998 Arsenal, who
won the league with just 78 points, but it does show, with the use of
those pesky facts, that BenĂtez is not this naive man who struggles to
win games in the Premier League while Wenger understands everything about
English football. Additionally, in the last two seasons BenĂtez has
finished above Wenger in the league.
* Wengerâs Champions League record is not a patch on BenĂtezâs. In
just three seasons, BenĂtez has reached twice the number of finals
(two to one), and unlike Wenger, has actually won one. In 15
successive years of qualifying (in itself a notable achievement),
United have only made it to one solitary final. Until BenĂtez started
doing so incredibly well in the European Cup, it was seen as being of
massive importance to the big clubs; it may be coincidental, but itâs
as if his success has led critics to downgrade that importance.
Perhaps itâs my paranoia (and not necessarily a fact), but if Alex
Ferguson had made two finals in three years, even his pet labrador
would have been knighted by now.
* BenĂtez has yet to fail to qualify for the Champions League, and
has made the knockout stages for the fourth successive time, halfway
through his fourth year. Before he arrived, Liverpool had failed to
reach the competition at all (2003/04) and gone out in embarrassment
in the group stage the year before (2002/03).
* Wenger is a world-class manager, but it does seem strange that he
has somehow ânever signed a flopâ, and that all his young signings
have been âinspiredâ. In July 2007 The Times ran a piece about how
BenĂtez had pipped Arsenal for Ryan Babel, which also intimated that
Arsenal had lost interest in the Dutchman. Its author, having praised
Wengerâs record in scouting young players as âproven and largely
unblemishedâ, suggested that: âAs a procurer of young talent, Rafael
BenĂtezâs record has been somewhat hit and miss since he took over as
Liverpool manager three years ago. Daniel Agger, the accomplished
young Denmark defender, may be one of BenĂtezâs better acquisitions,
but the failures ring a little louder than the successes. Gabriel
Paletta anyone?â
* If weâre talking about players in their late teens and early 20s,
then as well as Agger, what about Xabi Alonso, Pepe Reina and Javier
Mascherano, all just 22 when signed? Or Scott Carson, whoâs now worth
ten times his original fee? Even Momo Sissoko, whose stock is low at
the moment, had two excellent seasons aged 20 and 21. How does
Palettaâs name, alongside that of the disappointing Mark Gonzalez,
outweigh all the successes when it comes to players aged 22 or under?
Meanwhile, teenagers like Jack Hobbs, Emiliano Insua, Gerardo Bruna,
Marvin Poure, Sebastian Leto and Daniel Pacheco have not had time to
prove themselves; but each has looked the part at either youth or
reserve level. After three and a half years in charge, Wenger had only
fully blooded Anelka and Vieira, while relying heavily on older
players he inherited, like Bergkamp and the back five. Since the
Timesâ piece, Babel has proved a big hit at Liverpool, as has another
20-year-old, Lucas Leiva.
* Which brings us back to perceptions; or perhaps just
misconceptions. How does the £10-17m failure of José Antonio Reyes, 21
when signed, fit in with this picture of Wenger, the master, and
BenĂtez, the failure in the art of procuring young talent? Wengerâs
judgement is undoubtedly up there with the very best, but would even
he call his judgement âlargely unblemishedâ when thinking of Cygan,
Stepanovs, Wreh, Diawara, Chukwunyelu-Obinna, Danilevicious, Luzhny,
Volz, van Bronckhurst, Boa Morte, Wright, Jeffers and Wiltord? ââ many
of whom were youngsters when they signed for the Gunners, and plenty
of whom werenât cheap. And the list doesnât even include those who
came and went without even being noticed, or only proved medium-level
successes, like Senderos.
So, just a few facts to bear in mind, both before and after the United game, about where BenĂtez ranks against his main rivals at the same stage of their tenures.
Quite simply, Rafa BenĂtez has to be the man to lead this club forward, for two more seasons at the very least (unless things go really pear-shaped). Arsene Wenger, after one early success, only made Arsenal a truly great side in his 6th season, and Ferguson ââ a man who also laboured under two-decades of pressure to win the league title ââ took until his 7th to do just that.
If Rafa is going to be under pressure to keep his job following every defeat ââ and here Iâm only going on whatâs said in the papers, which may or may not be reliable ââ the club is in grave danger of shooting itself in the foot. All managers lose games; itâs an inescapable part of football. No manager is perfect.
Liverpool FC needs strong and consistent leadership right now. It has it on the pitch and in the dugout, and now is the time to prove that itâs the case behind the scenes, too.
Until genuine peace is officially (and festively) announced at Anfield, Iâll continue to throw a few facts around and call for common sense. I am not saying that anyone within Liverpoolâs hierarchy lacks this crucial trait ââ in my heart I want to believe they donât ââ but if Rafa is sacked, or made to work under unbearable pressure and with unreasonable demands, then Iâll have to revise that conclusion.
© Paul Tomkins 2007
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