A Game of Chance

Thought it was an interesting read about the beautiful game... food for thought.

A Game of Chance

Most managers do not take chance into account and that poses a major problem

by Ouriel Daskal

German sports scientist Dr. Roland Loy published a study about the randomness of football. According to Dr. Loy, the score of a football game is much more influenced by random events than previously thought – especially in the modern era, when football became faster and more intense than ever.

Chance is a big factor in football. A high level of coordination is essential for players to cope with unlikely events during a game – it will help them control the ball better and make decisions quicker. Coordination will help the player minimize the effects of chance and take control over more aspects of the game.

Stamina and quickness have become much more important factors in the game – one statistic shows that the number of sprints in a game was about 50% higher in 2006 than it was in 2002.

On the other hand, we see many occasions where a quick and agile player goes speeding into attack with the ball at his feet, eventually losing control of it because of a lack of technique or skill, thus enabling the opposing team to rush into a counter attack. This is exactly why chance is such a big factor in the game.

A whole new “percentage game”

Loy studied 1200 Bundesliga matches for over 3 years, and he came to the conclusion that 60% of goals are scored as a result of a team’s athletic or technical ability, while the other 40% are scored as a result of chance. This basically means that 40% of all goals are a result of “error” - a pass gone awry, a ball bouncing the wrong way, a goalkeeper making a mistake, etc.

When he studied several other leagues in Europe (Spain, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium), Loy said that the number of “chance goals” has risen to 46%.

After studying games in the European Champions League, Dr. Loy uncovered another stat: He looked at 12405 touches of the ball, and came to the conclusion that 35% of them were strictly coincidental. These touches did not come during an organised attack – they are the result of a goal kick, free kicks, 50-50 struggles, defenders clearing the ball, tackles, etc.

These stats show that a team that is able to reduce the number of mistakes and “chance balls” will be more likely to win. Borussia Dortmund, a team that specializes in deadly counter attacks, won the Bundesliga title mainly due to this amazing stat: In about 3400 attacking plays, they only lost the ball 12 times in the transition from defence to attack.

Dortmund’s staff were closely monitoring the effects of chance, and analysed the team’s games according to these stats. This is a whole new “percentage game”.

Dortmund are using training techniques that are influenced by a theory called “Optimal Coordination Order” (OCO). The theory was developed by Dr. Mark Wertheim, who heads the Wertheim Center of coordination development. “A player that doesn’t have a high level of coordination is unable to cope well with the effects of chance”, says Wertheim.

“Coordination is a skill of the mind, and along with decision-making it is a major factor in finding solutions to problems that occur during the game”.

Dr. Harold Loy was very supportive of Dr. Wertheim’s work, praising him in his studies for focusing on coordination as the most important skill needed to prevent errors on the field.

Dr. Wertheim claims: “Most managers say things like ‘we didn’t win enough 50-50′s’, ‘we should have made more plays down the flanks’ or ‘we didn’t try enough long shots’, they should ask themselves: wwhat did we do after winning 50-50 balls?’, ‘How do we play it down the flanks better?’; ‘How can we attempt more long shots?’”

Chance should be taken into account when these questions are asked. Dr. Wertheim went on to say that “most managers do not take chance into account, and that poses a major problem, as players must be trained to better cope with random events. A higher level of coordination will improve a player’s ability to trap a ball. He will dribble more effectively and deal with an unexpected bounce of the ball better. These things will reduce the negative effects of unexpected occurrences on your team’s chances of winning”.

A high level of coordination and the ability to avoid making mistakes are the most important, though rarely seen, factors that Dortmund has in common with Barcelona. It’s no coincidence that these 2 teams are currently among the most successful teams in Europe. while other teams possess a few “super-hero” players – like Cristiano Ronaldo, Yaya Toure and Zlatan Ibrahimovic for example – Dortmund and Barca do not have any physical specimens in their squads. However, almost every important player in these clubs were intensively trained in coordination.

Another thing they have in common is that nearly all of them began playing football at a very young age – even before they were 5. Many had the privilege of being sons of professional or amateur footballers, who trained their children early and gave them an advantage over players that started training at a later age.

Lionel Messi started running when he was 10 months old, chasing his brothers when they were playing football outside. Several months later he already received his first football jersey from his uncle, and when he was 4 he was already dribbling in a way that his dad, an amateur football coach, claimed to be “mind-blowing”. Xavi‘s father is an ex-footballer and coach. Andres Iniesta used to go everywhere with a football, saying that it was his “best friend”. Dortmund’s biggest star, Mario Gotze, used to play football with his dad and brother when he was a toddler. Defender Mats Hummels’ father, Hermann, was a professional footballer in Germany, who went on to become a youth coordinator for Bayern Munich.

Football is a language

The earlier a child starts training, the more likely he is to become a good player. Brain connectivity is developed at an early age, just like language skills, and it is an important factor in football.

The most important conclusion from these stories is that in order for players to become top-class footballers, they should be trained at an early age. This is why football academies should be launched, with the intention of training very young kids. Academies are important, because in today’s world, kids are much less active than they used to be.

In his research, leading Israeli sports figure Dr. Itzik Ben-Melech shows that children from poor regions are more likely to become world-class athletes, mainly due to being more physically active.

Former Ireland international Liam Brady, who is now the head of youth development in Arsenal, told “FourFourTwo” Magazine that there are fewer pure talents today. “We, as a football club, have to struggle against everything that surrounds youngsters today. When I grew up in Dublin, my youth team used to train once or twice a week, but I was training almost every day by myself. Kids today are staying at home with their Playstations and Facebook, and many clubs have to spend a lot of money on their academies in order to help develop these kids into professional footballers”.

By replacing the street with science-oriented training, clubs will be able to make up for the loss of “true pure talents”.

The game of football is still something of a mystery, and no one has been able to create a formula that will ensure victory. However, while stamina, strength and quickness are very important elements, everyone agrees that the true X-factor is the player’s brain. Therefore, it is essential to develop the player’s ability to perform what his brain instructs his body to do - and that, my friends, is coordination.

Soccer Issue

Good article Diego

Thanks for posting, very interesting