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      Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?

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      redkenny
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      Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      May 04, 2008 04:10:03 am
      It's been said many times on this forum and in general elsewhere. Stats prove points, but do not show the whole picture.

      Certain members of this forum are always quick to point out that we're not seeing success no matter what the stats say. And in the cold light of day, many people will agree with that view - another season without a trophy.

      I myself, really hate it when we finish the season without anything to show for it where silverware is concerned. It's not right. But I always feel there has to be a good balance between being realistic and seeing progress these days, and what's just not good enough for our club.

      We should have really been challenging for the league until the latter stages of many seasons now. But we have to accept that we've fallen behind other clubs where money, management and downright good technical behind the scenes work is concerned for some time - not necessarily all at the same time, but these things have to be in motion together as a unit to be successful.

      But. With the level of football that's needed to win the league these days, compared to when we were winning leagues years ago, along with how much the level has been raised by other teams. Are our stats making people unable to see the wood for the trees, lately? There's no doubt in my mind that we're the closest we've ever been to making a real challenge on the league, from when I watch the team play. It just seems when I watch some games, we are too shy at being ruthless to get the three points sometimes.

      But stats will have you see a different picture. Have a read of this article and post your thoughts about the difference between being a good statistical Liverpool, or a not so good trophy winning Liverpool.

      Link here

      Anfield’s six shooters put Liverpool's critics in firing line

      May 3 2008
      by Tony Barrett, Liverpool Echo
       
      Having derided them as a one-man team for much of the past decade, Liverpool's detractors have now got them down as little more than a Steven Gerrard-Fernando Torres double act.

      Such has been the deadly duo's wondrous form this season it is easy to paint a picture of a team which owes its every victory to them.
      But should Liverpool's critics be interested in allowing the facts to get in the way of a good story a glance at the goalscoring charts would be enough to disabuse them of this misleading notion.

      For the first time since the double winning season of 1985/86, no fewer than six Liverpool players have hit double figures in all competitions – a figure which no other club in the country can boast.
      Ryan Babel's late strike against Chelsea in midweek meant he joined Dirk Kuyt, Peter Crouch, Yossi Benayoun, Gerrard and Torres as one of Liverpool's six shooters.

      Chelsea themselves can boast four players on 10 or more goals, with Manchester United, Everton and Arsenal having three each.
      On top of that, with just two league games to go, Liverpool are English football's leading goalscorers, having struck 116 times at home and abroad.
      Arsenal, whose legion of media friends would have the world believe are the greatest entertainers since entertainment was first invented, are next best, having scored five fewer goals.
      For Rafa Benitez, such weighty statistical evidence backs up his often ignored opinion that the quality of his Liverpool squad is improving all the time.

      "These statistics show that we are going in the right direction," he said.

      "We have scored more goals than anyone else, kept more clean sheets than anyone else and we have six players who have scored ten or more goals.

      "We are disappointed that we have not managed to win a trophy this season because that is what we always set out to do, but achievements like these are very positive."



       
      crouchinho
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #1: May 04, 2008 05:07:25 am
      Its the draws that are killing us - we would be up there but too many draws have hampered us.
      Poolgiants
      • Forum Gary McAllister
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #2: May 04, 2008 08:19:32 am
      An interesting statistic not too often noted is that our best season under Benitez in the league came after we were knocked out in the second round in Europe against Benfica. So next season I think all of our fans would prefer us to go out early in the Champions League if it means we will challenge until the last weeks of the season for the league title.

      It's time Benitez concentrated on the league above Europe, because he doesn't seem to be able to do both in the same season.
      sabrina
      • Forum Gary McAllister
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #3: May 04, 2008 11:35:33 am
      i remember when we were top of the league earlier this season, everyone was going mad saying we were gonna win the league, i still stop and wonder what happened? was it torres gettin injured?
      srslfc
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #4: May 04, 2008 11:48:44 am
      Its the draws that are killing us - we would be up there but too many draws have hampered us.

      Agree with this Crouchinho but I think that many of these draws will be turned into wins next season.

      Another stat which has pleased me this year is the fact that we have only lost 4 league games all season which I think is Rafa's best result since taking over.
      justpanicpeter
      • Forum Michael Robinson
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #5: May 04, 2008 12:06:23 pm


      I dont believe we ever had a chance at this league title this year. Remember after all the politics on and off the field, football is still a team sport and with the amount of new players over the summer it was almost impossible to think that they would gel together in time to put up a fight after the initial few months of proving themselves!

      But now you only have to look at the fighting spirit of the second half performance against Chelsea to know that now, as a team we are ready to fight much harder for the league title!

      Benitiez has brought Lucas, Babel, Torres, Mascherano and Skrtel who will form a crucial backbone to our team, all of which I dont personally think our at the top of their game and they are already frighteningly good!

      With the likes of Agger hopefully returning to our back 4 next year we'll have a much stronger backline in Agger,Carrager,Skrtel and Aurellio (the perfect mix of younger and older players) and I think well be tighter than ever! I get exited thinking about our tackling ability as a squad!

       Any additions to this will only make us stronger. Remember when we lost to Chelsea and the end of 90 minutes we were effectively playing 3 second choice defenders! I believe if the back 4 I stated earlier were fit we would have won that game.

      An interesting statistic not too often noted is that our best season under Benitez in the league came after we were knocked out in the second round in Europe against Benfica. So next season I think all of our fans would prefer us to go out early in the Champions League if it means we will challenge until the last weeks of the season for the league title.

      It's time Benitez concentrated on the league above Europe, because he doesn't seem to be able to do both in the same season.

      I dont actually agree with this. With the terrible relationship between Benitez and the owners, the champions league is a massive MASSIVE financial bonus for the club, even reaching the semi finals! So I'd rather take 4th and the money from a champions league semi final, If it enables us to buy another player to the quality of Torres for next season!

      We are a team that has room to grow and is getting better and stronger every season, so long as I can always see that this is the case then I dont need to look at statistics or figures, I can just rub my hands and look forward to another batte next season!






      ps
      My only dissapointment this season was the F.A. Cup exit since my birds from Barnsley and I got proper ripped!

      MsGerrard
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #6: May 04, 2008 02:43:43 pm
      Interesting reading...........

      My own personal point of view is (and I know a  lot won't agree with me) but I think Rafa tinkered around a bit TOO much with the team in the earlier part of the season, recently, we've had a much more settled side and, don't get me wrong I'm all for rotation when it's necessary through injury, suspension etc but I also think players need time together on the field of play to gel and get to know each other inside out, and you can't do that when you don't know who your going to be playing with from one week to the next.


      I do hope that Rafa has learnt his lesson from this, as I'm a big believer that we will be up there next season with the rest, as long as we take our chances when they come, and that comes from a belief of being the best in the best team, and I think some of our performances lately have been just that.

      If only some of those draws had been turned into wins........ :(

      Reading that article from the Liverpool Echo, we've actually done bloody brilliant under the circumstances. Very positive reading.

      We are not to far away boys and girls, I believe we can go and do that little bit better next season.

      Let's hope so anyway ;D

       :kop5cf8koxp6:
      shikhark
      • Forum John Barnes
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #7: May 04, 2008 06:41:32 pm
      Interesting reading...........

      My own personal point of view is (and I know a  lot won't agree with me) but I think Rafa tinkered around a bit TOO much with the team in the earlier part of the season, recently, we've had a much more settled side and, don't get me wrong I'm all for rotation when it's necessary through injury, suspension etc but I also think players need time together on the field of play to gel and get to know each other inside out, and you can't do that when you don't know who your going to be playing with from one week to the next.


      I dont agree with that.If you look at our results from all the matches (http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/match/season/#form), it is clear that we lost our way in the middle part of the season.We were top or close to the top for most part of the 1st 12 matches.The problem started in early December and continued till the end of January,a period where we have performed well over recent seasons.10 points in 9 games,starting from the game against Reading to the game against West Ham.That was the part of the season where we lost our way and effectively dropped out of the title race.

      In my opinion,that slump wasn't because of rotation but more due to the fact that Rafa was trying to find a stable and winning formation.Since then he has settled on the 4-2-3-1 system and most of his changes in the lineup were in the defense area.If we don't manage to buy a world class striker in the summer,I reckon Rafa will continue with this system.
      solodee
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #8: May 04, 2008 07:56:36 pm
      Bill Shankly (1959 - 1974) - Percentage wins 51.98% (P-783, W-407, D-198, L-178)

      Bob Paisley (1974 - 1983) - Percentage wins 57.38% (P-535, W-307, D-132, L-96)

      Kenny Dalglish (1985 - 1991) - Percentage wins 60.91% (P-307, W-187, D-78, L-42)

      Gerard Houlier (1998 - 2004) - Percentage wins 51.47% (P-307, W-158, D-75, L-74)

      Rafa Benitez is doing a good job! It can only get better.

      Rafa Benitez (2004 - Present) - Percentage wins 56.04% (P-207, W-116, D-40, L-51)
      king kenny
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #9: May 04, 2008 08:00:36 pm
      Nice set of stats there solodee.  Just hope Poolgiants has a read of them and maybe he might realise that we are progressing!
      solodee
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #10: May 05, 2008 08:56:51 am
      Nice set of stats there solodee.  Just hope Poolgiants has a read of them and maybe he might realise that we are progressing!

      It's always the ultimate achievement to win a cup, but stats also show that a team is making progress. People tend to ignore stats and just focus on the cup wins. We are on the right course with Rafa Benitez.
      Poolgiants
      • Forum Gary McAllister
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #11: May 05, 2008 09:00:35 am
      The stats are that in 150 league games Benitez has done no better than Gerard Houllier's first 150 league games.
      The argument is whether Benitez can/will win the league.

      Up until now IN THE LEAGUE he has done no better than Houllier - which wasn't good enough.
       
         
      Rafa Benitez  P 149 W 81 % 54 
         
      Gerard Houllier  P 150 W 81  % 54 
         
      kennys88lads
      • Forum Igor Biscan
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      Very surprising 150 league games (managers) League table
      Reply #12: May 05, 2008 01:29:56 pm
      I found these surprising stats on theTelegraph website (prior to Birmingham away) I find it amazing that Houllier and Benitez were equal 2nd place in front of Shanks and Paisley and only 6 wins behind king kenny for the first 150 league games ???. To think of the league titles delivered by these three and not one credible title challenge of any real note between Gerrard or Rafa how can this be right?  I welcome your views and opinions.



      If his side defeat Birmingham tomorrow, Rafa Benitez will become the Liverpool manager with the second highest number of wins in his first 150 league games.

      Kenny Dalglish P 150  W 87 % 58 
         
      Rafa Benitez  P 149 W 81 % 54 
         
      Gerard Houllier  P 150 W 81  % 54 
         
      Bob Paisley  P 150  W 79 % 53
         
      Bill Shankly P 150 W 77 % 51

      kennys88lads
      • Forum Igor Biscan
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      Re: Very surprising 150 league games (managers) League table
      Reply #13: May 05, 2008 04:28:05 pm
      Good forum this! thanks for the input :f_steam:
      RedPuppy
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      Re: Very surprising 150 league games (managers) League table
      Reply #14: May 05, 2008 04:36:47 pm
      You will find that not all posts are replyed to, considering it is a Bank Holiday people may be doing something else than loging on to forums.
      EddieC
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #15: May 05, 2008 04:48:24 pm
      I do use stats quite often to backup my opinion, but to rely on them solely to form your opinion would be foolhardy. As has been shown already in this thread you can use stats to show what a good job Benitez is doing but you can also use them to show what a bad job he's doing if you want to. When I look beyond the stats and look at the bigger picture I genuinely do see Rafa doing a good job here and can't understand the short-sightedness of those wanting to get rid of him.

      When I look at Rafa's time here I see that he is in the process of building something, and to date it's going very well IMO. Year on year we are seeing an extra couple of pieces added to the puzzle, and we're not that far away now. If you compare the team to a car engine, you can have the best engine in the world but it only takes the spark plugs to be missing & it won't work. I feel we now have the right players in most positions and are only that extra couple of signings away from the winning formula. Before Rafa arrived how many of our players could you say would have been wanted by the other top clubs? I'd say only Gerrard & possibly Riise, even Carra wasn't half the player he is now before Rafa arrived. When you look at the squad now we have Gerrard, Carragher, Torres, Mascherano, Alonso, Reina & possibly a few others depending on your opinion who would be wanted by a host of top clubs were we to sell. It says a hell of a lot that one of our players deemed not good enough by most was offloaded to a club of the standing of Juventus.

      Every manager makes mistakes, you can't be expected to get it right every time and when working on the budget that Rafa has you're not always going to be able to buy your first choice and have to gamble on someone you're not 100% about. Yes there have been some poor signings but this is to be expected when shopping in the bargain basement, if we had signed an expensive flop I would have a different opinion but to date Rafa hasn't done that. He has picked up some good players along the way, the likes of Arbeloa, Agger, Benayoun, Aurelio & Skrtel all cost relatively little by todays standards but have definitely added to the squad. The most impressive thing for me though is the way Rafa has dealt with the signings that haven't worked out. He isn't to proud to admit he made a mistake, and rather than trying to justify his signings by persevering with them he ships players out quickly when it becomes apparent they weren't the right option. You'd expect if a player didn't turn out as good as you'd thought that you would make a loss on them, but Rafa has actually managed to make a small profit on the players bought and subsequently sold by himself when it didn't work out. In his four years Rafa has bought and then sold 13 players, these players cost a combined total of £29.6m but were actually sold for £31.8m. Firstly that's only an average price of just over £2m per player, hardly costly mistakes, but to actually make a profit on the players deemed surplus to requirements is some achievement IMO and says a lot for the quality of our players.

      Another factor that needs to be taken into consideration is Rick Parry's incompetence when dealing with transfers. We all know we have missed out on a few players due to not being quick enough off the mark, were it not for this lack of urgency we could well have had Alves, Vidic & Simao at the club as Rafa had wished. We have already seen what happens when Rafa gets his first choices, you just have to look at the likes of Torres & Mascherano, we could be reflecting on this season very differently if he hadn't been held back by pubes head in the past & got who he wanted. I know it's all well and good talking about what might have been & we can't say for certain it would have worked out, but the fact remains that Rafa wasn't able to get the players he really wanted in these instances due to circumstances out of his hands and it would be unfair to make an assessment of his progress without taking this factor into account.

      Then there is Rafa's youth policy. Anyone who watches the reserves will tell you there are exciting times ahead, we have a lot of very promising players coming through the ranks at the moment. We've stormed to the reserve league title this season, and have recent back to back FA Youth Cup triumphs. Rafa has been very cautious with introducing youth into the first team (if it were down to me I would give them more of a chance in the Carling Cup) but when he has they generally haven't looked out of their depth. He has said himself that with seven subs on the bench from next season we will see our youngsters get more of a chance, and I'm confident that given the chance the likes of Nemeth, Insua, Plessis, Leto, San Jose & Pacheco will shine, as well as other youngsters currently on loan, most notably Paul Anderson who has had a brilliant season at Swansea. Rafa has spent roughly £20m on youth during his time at the club, I really don't think it's unrealistic to say we could well end up with £80m worth of talent from that investment.

      All in all I don't think some people realise how much work there was to be done when Rafa arrived here, Utd and Arsenal were light years ahead of us and Chelsea were rapidly on the rise with their bottomless pit of money. Anyone who suggests we are no better off than when Rafa arrived is way off the mark IMO, as I said before you have to look at the bigger picture & see how many pieces have been put into place over four years and that there aren't that many to go. I also think that due to the emphasis being placed on our league status the Champions League has managed to become grossly devalued by sections of our own support. It's no mickey mouse cup and our form has been sensational in the competition since Rafa came here, two finals and a semi in four years sees us established as a major player with an increased global reputation, which makes it easier to attract top players.

      I am firmly of the opinion that Rafa has done a great job here, for all the reasons outlined above, and no-one but Rafa himself (by screwing up in disasterous fashion) will be able to convince me otherwise. The press he has recieved has been totally unjustified, every week the media are looking for a new stick to beat him with, but unfortunately some of our own fans have bought into it. The stats definitely do not tell the full story, as I said before they can be used to backup either school of thought, but if you look closely at the squad we have and the players required to complete it then it's clear to me that we are progressing nicely & don't have very far to go.

      MsGerrard
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #16: May 05, 2008 05:00:59 pm
      Top top post Eddie, very well put :)
      JD
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #17: May 05, 2008 05:16:33 pm
      Its the draws that are killing us - we would be up there but too many draws have hampered us.

      Not beating Chelsea at home and handing 6 points to United didn't help.  I've said in another thread already that unless we start beating the top sides then irrespective of the draws against City away, Villa at home etc, we won't win the title.
      donrafael
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #18: May 05, 2008 06:37:59 pm
      Great post Eddie.

      I feel that with a couple or three world class signings we have a decent chance of the title next season... some of those will probably need part-funding by outgoing players with big cheques waved in Rafa's face (e.g. Alonso?, Crouch?).

      Without the signings, maybe not carried because the club simply can't afford them at this time, it may not be that easy to do ...although like others I have faith in the depth the best of reserves will give Rafa... but they will not be enough to win the Premier title...ask Wenger on that score...

      As much as it pains us, we probably need to increase our revenue making capacity as a club, to be able to compete for first choices in the market place and that doesn't happen overnight - unless a Hicks or DIC goes nuts with the cheque book over the summer...and that today looks a long way off, unless one or other gain majority control in the summer.

      This revenue stream capacity is the main reason Parry and his crew must be replaced URGENTLY at the club... a club is built board room up and ours is a joke at the minute.

      Is the money there for world class signings this summer? We will see in the next few weeks...

      If it is not there, it will be interesting to see people's reactions and expectations for next season...

      In the modern era - money talks and bullshit walks... but I suppose, if we don't sign the class that is needed this summer, there will be calls for "Sack Benitez" from some/many... simply because we can't deliver or compete with the richer clubs next season for the Premier title.

      The worst type of lie is the one that one tell ones self... otherwise goes by the word DENIAL.

      This truth pisses many off, me included, I dream of No.19 as much as the next fan, but to expect titles WITHOUT the resources clearly needed by our club to do so, isn't dreaming... it's an irrational fantasy.

      Unfortunately unless proved otherwise this summer (Hicks OR DIC control factor), our spending capacity will be closer to the likes of Man City and Spurs than to the likes of Manure, Arse or Abramovich's hobby.

      YNWA

      « Last Edit: May 05, 2008 06:42:31 pm by donrafael »
      truckerdai
      • Forum Youth Player

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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #19: May 06, 2008 09:52:08 pm
      Its the draws that are killing us - we would be up there but too many draws have hampered us.

      Totaly agree.

      6 draws at home! Thats 12 points dropped. How many are we behind the mancs? 11.

      You do the maths!
      LFC9
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #20: May 06, 2008 09:54:35 pm
      1 nil wins against teams we drew against has won the scum the league
      crouchinho
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      Re: Is A Statistical Liverpool FC Good?
      Reply #21: Jun 04, 2008 04:14:13 am
      Well just came along an interesting table of statistics. It is off Wikipedia but still, worth a gander:

      Rafa is our 4th best manager of all time.

      First place, William Barclay and John Mckenna with 61.07%
      Kenny Dalglish is in second with a win percentage of 60.91%
      Third is Bob Paisley with 57.38%
      Fourth place....Rafa Benitez with 56.07%

      No Joe Fagan or Bill Shankly surprisingly but times are changed from those days. Also, we have only ever had 2 foreign managers; Gerard Houllier and Rafa Benitez. Some could argue that if we are to have any success, we have to get a british based man in charge or we will just keep being labelled 'weakest top 4 team'. Not that im saying that at all but someone could...

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