Fink Tank: Benitez outperforming at Anfield

The Fink Tank: Rafael Benítez paying for lack of transfer funds at Liverpool

The Fink Tank: Daniel Finkelstein October 31, 2009

Life’s a beach ball, and then you die. After the freak goal by Darren Bent brought defeat by Sunderland, one or two pundits wondered if Liverpool fans were too accepting of the injustice. Perhaps, they speculated, the Kop has finally tired of Rafael Benítez. Perhaps they were looking for a chance to get rid of him. And the beach ball provides a chance.

But if that is what they are thinking, then I believe they are making a mistake.

Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham, and Dr Mark Latham have been untangling a tale of two seasons. Liverpool did so well last season, staying in the title race until it was nearly over. But now our progress chart suggests that they are already down to little more than a 3 per cent chance of lifting the trophy. Manchester United have won (in 2002/3, Fink Tank’s first season) after having a 4 per cent chance in mid November. But there is, well, a 97 per cent chance that this won’t happen to Liverpool this season.

What is going on? And should it be laid at Benítez’s door?

The simple answer, at least as far as it is possible to answer it this early in the season, is that nothing much is going on. But to see what I mean you have to understand the last campaign.

A team such as Liverpool begin the season with a range of places they can finish in given their quality. Luck and the variable performance of other sides might change the place the side finish in even if their performance doesn’t vary. So we know the probability that they will finish in a certain place, without, naturally, being able to offer any certainty.

For this reason, a team has a chance of winning the Barclays Premier League even if they aren’t the best side. The table, in other words, does lie. The best side might be defined as the one that would be the favourite on a neutral ground against any opposition from the Premier League. And you can determine this, as we do, by a model employing a weighted measure of goals and shots on goal.

The longer the season lasts, the more chance there is that the best team will win the title. But in a 38-game season, reasonably short from a statistical standpoint, even the third and fourth ranked sides have an appreciable chance of winning the title, while still remaining third or fourth best.

And this, pretty much, is what happened to Liverpool. They started last season ranked in third equal place with Arsenal and with only a 10 per cent chance of winning the title. In the middle of the season their chance peaked at 20 per cent, before dropping off again. In other words, we were always pretty confident that Liverpool wouldn’t win the Premier League.

Nevertheless, by coming second, Liverpool exceeded our expectations for a team of their quality. And it is not surprising at all that they have dropped back off again this season. Their start to this season is more what we would expect of them.

So what is behind it? Three things seem worth mentioning. First, they have stayed steady in quality but have changed with their defence getting weaker and their attack getting stronger. They are letting in a large proportion of the shots on goal. They need to put this right.

Second, Xabi Alonso was, next only to Steven Gerrard, their best player. It was a disaster to lose him to Real Madrid.

But most importantly — the money. Our figures show that Benítez outperforms the wage bill. Blame the Americans. Not Rafa.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/fink_tank/article6897323.ece

The Fink Tank: Rafael Benítez paying for lack of transfer funds at Liverpool

But most importantly — the money. Our figures show that Benítez outperforms the wage bill. Blame the Americans. Not Rafa.

That bit sums it up perfectly.

That bit sums it up perfectly.

You beat me to it.  Spot on that imo.

Once again i see more and more negative post . A lot of you still think its Rafa's fault. I think most of the negative posters are thinking with you're hearts instead of your heads. As the most successful English club ( so far  ) obviously you're use to success. When it doesn't happen you want heads to roll. Not winning the League for a while now is putting the club under unwarranted pressure. The problem you have is with Mork & Mindy.. ak the yanks. Until they go, there lies you're problems. Getting rid of Rafa now will not only cost you millions in contract fees ( allegedly )  but also put you back some years. More importantly, i don't think there is anyone on the market, "at the moment" that could do a better job.

Once again i see more and more negative post . A lot of you still think its Rafa's fault. I think most of the negative posters are thinking with you're hearts instead of your heads. As the most successful English club ( so far  ) obviously you're use to success. When it doesn't happen you want heads to roll. Not winning the League for a while now is putting the club under unwarranted pressure. The problem you have is with Mork & Mindy.. ak the yanks. Until they go, there lies you're problems. Getting rid of Rafa now will not only cost you millions in contract fees ( allegedly )  but also put you back some years. More importantly, i don't think there is anyone on the market, "at the moment" that could do a better job.

That is the consenus of opinion here Keith the alternatives are just so wide of the mark the only supposition is that the posters are a/genuinely misguided or b/have ulterior motives, in the case of Whelan the latter suggestion would apply considering his affiliation and apparent support for manUre. 

“He wants to win the European Cup so he can get a job in Europe."
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What can I say his opinion is about as good as his geography, as I'm sure Rafa is coaching in Europe at the minute.

Great player. C*nt of an ex-player.

I assume we never won the league last season because we were too pre-occupied with the CL then too.

Is he after a managers job? :

Just a thought for all who thinks Rafa should be shown the door, I'll put Rafa's yearly net spend down in here and you can draw your own conclusions.

2004 £8.200,000  net spend

2005 £12,930,000 net spend

2006 £17.47 million net spend

2007 £21,955,000 net spend

2008 £19,650,000 net spend

2009 Minus £9,750,000 net spend £9,750,000 profit.

In 5 years Rafa's total spend has been £210,425,000

In 5 years Rafa has recouped £139,730,000 from player sales

Giving Rafa a Net spend over 5 years of £70,695,000

Giving Rafa a Yearly average net spend of £14,139,000

Not the figures some would have you believe, and is no where near good enough for a manager challenging on all four fronts IMO.

If you average it over 6 years, which it soon will be..... it will give Rafa a net spend of £11,782,500 per year   :

IMO that highlights why we have seen a high volume of players in and out of the club as Rafa has wheeled and dealed in the bargain basement to generate extra funds so he could build a starting XI that is capable of competing with likes of Chelsea UTD and Arsenal.

Seeing figures like this helps me to see clearly what side of the fence I'm standing on. What about you ?

Me too... I always knew which side of the fence, we ain't just gonna lose what we  had over night! last season we were the best team in the premiership FACT & we still finished second, you can say United were the best because they won, but it was an undeserved championship gifted by us! we have had an almighty sh*te start to the season everything that could go wrong has.. Penalty decisions,beach balls,red cards,own goals,defensive errors,injuries! but I'm still optimistic that other teams will eventually be dropping points & we need to get a momentum going. Wednesday is a massive game & we need everyone to show support and not waste time Rafa bashing. We win as a team we lose as a team, we walk through the storm together.. otherwise we are just fickle.

55 people think Rafa should go but so far I havent seen 1 suggestion that doesnt make me fall of my chair laughing.We are in a difficult postion and pointing the finger doesnt help. I know that those who want Rafa to stay are just as unhappy at our current position but feel the best option at present is for Rafa to stay and to get behind the team.Maybe its a bit old fashioned but I still believe in Shankly's holy trinity it worked for nearly 50 years now is not the time to change.

55 people think Rafa should go but so far I havent seen 1 suggestion that doesnt make me fall of my chair laughing.We are in a difficult postion and pointing the finger doesnt help. I know that those who want Rafa to stay are just as unhappy at our current position but feel the best option at present is for Rafa to stay and to get behind the team.Maybe its a bit old fashioned but I still believe in Shankly's holy trinity it worked for nearly 50 years now is not the time to change.

The idea of not sacking managers was probably lost on them two lying c*nts before they came here.

Benitez is still here because we let them know we weren't happy last time. We need to continue letting them know what we think because if they thought they could get away with it, they would happily sack Rafa.

Oh & Ronnie Whelan what the fook... what should Rafa do, what if Torres gets injured for 2 months.. have you noticed the pattern of ex players/pundits who hate Liverpool Paul Merson coke head,Stan Collymore dogger/woman beater,Andy Grey serial sex pest.. why oh why Ronnie do you wanna join this elite pack of idiots?

just reading liverpool might have as many as 12 players on sick list.its unfair to for critics to judge him in this situation. cut ther guy some slack

just reading liverpool might have as many as 12 players on sick list.its unfair to for critics to judge him in this situation. cut ther guy some slack

All the more reason to stop sniping at the team and Manager and get behind the team.

I have complete belief in Rafa - it is at times like these we show our strength and uniqueness as a club as every piece of unfair criticism levelled at his door will only make us sing his name louder. This is one of the reasons Rafa loves Liverpool - how many other top managers would have stuck with the crap he's had to put up with?!? We must support Rafa.

Good article.

Enjoyed reading it.

Anyone fancy a march up to the ground before the Birmingham game in support of Rafa?