Pre-Season Results - Do they ever mean anything?

Pre-season is a funny time, everyone is chomping at the bit for the season to start proper, we scrutinise every movement of our new signings and in the main, most of us are guilty of over-reaction and over-analysis of results and performances. You've only got to look at how excited everyone has been getting about Aquilani's performances to see how pre-season can change (or rmap up) people's opinions of a player. Now personally I'm always a bit worried when we struggle in pre-season mainly because you NEVER EVER see the mancs have a poor pre-season, they might lose the odd one but they still manage to get the job done no matter who is playing or what experimentation is happening. Without checking the facts I'd also say say the same is true of all of our rivals in the top 4-5.

Anyways I'm not really much of  stato but I am a teacher who's 4 week holiday starts tomorrow so I can afford to waste 30 minutes looking at our results over the last 6 pre-seasons just to see if there was any correlation between friendly results and the league season that followed it. I realise I haven't included any Champions League results but I'm not a total geek.

2005/6

Liverpool 4 - 3 Wrexham               W
Liverpool 3 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen    W
Liverpool 4 - 3 Olympiakos             W

We had to qualify for the Champs league that year so only 3 friendly games.

3 Wins - 0 Defeats - 0 Draws

League Season - 3rd - 82pts

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2006/07

Liverpool 2 - 0 Wrexham           W
Liverpool 1 - 0 Crewe               W
Liverpool 2 - 3 Kaiserslauten      L
Liverpool 0 - 2 FC Grasshopper   L
Liverpool 0 - 5 FC Mainz            L

2 Wins - 3 Defeats - 0 Draws

League season - 3rd - 68pts

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2007/8

Liverpool 2 - 0 Auexerre           W
Liverpool 3 - 2 Werder Bremen   W
Liverpool 3 - 0 Crewe               W
Liverpool 3 - 2 Wrexham           W

4 Wins - 0 Defeats - 0 Draws

League season - 4th - 76pts

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2008/9

Liverpool 1 - 0 Tranmere          W
Liverpool 2 - 1 FC Lucerne       W
Liverpool 1 - 1 Wisla Krakow     D
Liverpool 0 - 0 Hertha Berlin     D
Liverpool 0 - 0 Villareal            D
Liverpool 4 - 0 Rangers            W
Liverpool 4 - 1 Valerenga         W
Liverpool 1 - 0 Lazio                W

5 Wins - 0 Defeats - 3 Draws

League season - 2nd - 86pts

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2009/10

Liverpool 0 - 0 St.Gallen          D
Liverpool 0 - 1 Radip Wien       L
Liverpool 1 - 1 Thailand           D
Liverpool 5 - 0 Singapore         W
Liverpool 0 - 3 Espanyol          L
Liverpool 2 - 0 Lyn Oslo          W
Liverpool 1 - 2 Atletico Madrid  L

2 Wins - 3 Defeats - 2 Draws

League season - 7th - 63pts

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2010/11

Liverpool 0 - 0 FC Grasshopper                 D
Liverpool 0 - 1 Kaiserslauten                    L
Liverpool 0 - 1 Borussia Monchengladbach  L

League season - 6th - 58pts


Now you can use stats to back up all sorts of arguments but just a few observations from me would be:

- We had our best league season in 2008/09 - Was it a complete coindidence that we had a very good pre-season as well that year?

- Likewise in 2005/06 - A very strong pre-season plus the game swith TNS and other Champ League lightweights was followed by our next best points total over the 6 season stretch.

- In 2006/7 we all had very high hopes for the saide after such a strong finish the previous seaosn but the warning signs were there in pre-season with 3 consecutive losses including an embarrassing 5-0 thumping away to FC Mainz in Germany. We started our league season terribly that year and never recovered our league form despite an excellent run in the Champs League.

- The last two season have both been very poor. they were both preceded by defeats suffered in the pre-season.

The thing that sticks out from the 06/07 pre season is the three defeats running into the opening game of the season.

I think that early pre season results are not too important as the fitness and match time is the key here but getting closer to the season I'm not sure it helps if performances and results are poor.

It must be better to go into the season on the back of two or three good performances and wins than playing badly and getting beat.

I didn't get to see the Hull game and while by all accounts not a great performance I would be a lot more worried if the next three games go the same way.

I think preseason results are only indicative of what may lie ahead during the season if the first team is playing. If you have a mixed up group of starting XI and squad players how can you really get a handle on how the first team is going to perform?

I  still believe that the defense is going to lag behind the offense in preseason as the defenders aren't going to be playing quite as physical as they would in league games. That's just my opinion of course.

Personally i believe the main thing in pre season is to regain ones sharpness, however of course it is not important to loose, no manager or team want to loose a game, period. If you can be unbeaten in pre season, it will definitely give you confidence going into the season, however a loss, could also be highly beneficial as it helps you spot the flaws in a specific team or player chosen, and gives time for the manager to correct them flaws before the competitive season starts.

Personally I believe the main thing in pre season is to regain ones sharpness, however of course it is not important to loose, no manager or team want to loose a game, period. If you can be unbeaten in pre season, it will definitely give you confidence going into the season, however a loss, could also be highly beneficial as it helps you spot the flaws in a specific team or player chosen, and gives time for the manager to correct them flaws before the competitive season starts.

I think you can definately pick-up on a few patterns in pre-season. The clearest one we are seeing so far in this pre-season is that we are conceding goals and that is a concern to me. Three goals in every match against comfortably inferior opposition is a little worrying. I know that we haven't played a first choice back four in any of the games but Carra, Agger, Flanno, Kelly and Big Soto have all featured and they will all see plenty of game time this season. In 2008-09 we were very stingy at the back throughout the pre-season conceding just 3 goals in 8 games (no matter who was playing) and that was something we continued into the start of the new season and beyond.

I'm not saying you can read all sorts from the results or make definitive judgements but I think (as fans) we can be very quick to heap on the praise and get excited after a few good pre-season games and then when we lose it's a case of "well, we never even got to see these in the 80's" or "it's all about the fitness, don't read anything into the result".

Personally i feel, towards the end of pre season, aka now, we should start playing the first 11 that are fit for say 60 minutes just to get them playing well together and understanding each other, especially seeing as we have a couple of new signings in midfield, it is more important then ever.

Personally I feel, towards the end of pre season, aka now, we should start playing the first 11 that are fit for say 60 minutes just to get them playing well together and understanding each other, especially seeing as we have a couple of new signings in midfield, it is more important then ever. .

Only problem is - 1. Players need to be given the chance to get into the first 11. Only way they can do that is through playing 2. We need the whole squad to be fit, not just the first 11 3. Overplaying them now may lead to tiredness towards the end of the season 4. Many of our first team players, Reina, Skrtel, Johnson, Gerrard, Lucas, Suarez are injured or away on international duty

Only problem is - 1. Players need to be given the chance to get into the first 11. Only way they can do that is through playing 2. We need the whole squad to be fit, not just the first 11 3. Overplaying them now may lead to tiredness towards the end of the season 4. Many of our first team players, Reina, Skrtel, Johnson, Gerrard, Lucas, Suarez are injured or away on international duty

1. They can show this in training, or when having cameo appearances in the league itself, what better way to show your worth instead of a meaningless pre season.

2. That is why i say towards the end of the pre season, at least two games, but the players all train hard to regain there fitness.

3. That is true however many players seem to run on momentum rather then the actual physical side of it, if we have a winning streak going and the bond of the first 11 is there fatigue would not be a problem.

4. Yes i acknowledge that, when i said starting 11, i mean the players available.

I think you can definately pick-up on a few patterns in pre-season. The clearest one we are seeing so far in this pre-season is that we are conceding goals and that is a concern to me. Three goals in every match against comfortably inferior opposition is a little worrying.

Good point and if you put yourself in the position of the defenders you would be going into every game with the aim of not conceding no matter who your defensive partners are.

Also the players in the back four would have done some work together in training and in theory could be playing together in the season so it is too simple a view just to simply write of the amount of goals conceded just because it's a pre season game.

But as I said earlier it is the next three games that are the key as if we continue to concede and play poorly at the back those problems could be carried into the opening game.

1. They can show this in training, or when having cameo appearances in the league itself, what better way to show your worth instead of a meaningless pre season.

Training does give a small amount of input but it's still nothing like a match. A match has a far higher tempo and shows more about a player then any training session.

2. That is why I say towards the end of the pre season, at least two games, but the players all train hard to regain there fitness.

Well as I said in point 1, fitness in the gym and the training ground is a lot different to match fitness. You can only get match fitness by playing.

3. That is true however many players seem to run on momentum rather then the actual physical side of it, if we have a winning streak going and the bond of the first 11 is there fatigue would not be a problem.


Well what if we're not winning? There will be moments in a season where we're be struggling.

4. Yes I acknowledge that, when I said starting 11, I mean the players available.

I can see your point but what about in 2/3 weeks time when you need to start replacing players with players who haven't got any match fitness?

I would have to say no.  No in the respect that nothing is up for grabs apart from fitness, sharpness and first team places (and for some players to be in the shop window).

A couple of things to note.  The OP said Man Utd never have a bad pre-season.  Check out their stats from last year:

Man United 3-1 Celtic
Philadelphia Union 0-1 Man United
Kansas City Wizards 2-1 Man United
MLS All-Stars 2-5 Man United
Chivas 3-2 Man United
League of Ireland XI 1-7 Man United

So they lost two games, and conceded 9 goals against inferior opposition.  Could that be classed as poor?  It's not brilliant, but one thing is certain, it had no impact on them winning the league.

Interesting as well that in 06/07, when we reached the CL final for a second time under Rafa.  We'd secured 4th place quite early I recall, and for the last few games, played what you might call weakened teams (the 1-0 defeat to Fulham sticks out, although we did play them off the park).  If we had played full strength teams, we could have ended up with more points theoretically.

Perhaps more interesting are Man City's pre-season results last year:
Portland Timbers 0-3 Man City
Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Man City
New York Red Bulls 2-1 Man City
America 1-1 Man City
Inter Milan 3-0 Man City
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Man City
Man City 2-0 Valencia

I think they mean nothing.  Surprisingly, talksport came to the same conclusion which is where I got these results from.  Link is below.
http://www.talksport.co.uk/magazine/features/2011-07-22/premier-league-big-boys-2010-pre-season-results-did-they-mean-anything

I guess everyones interest and expectation is reignited so if we are perceived to be failing already people are going to start getting a little twitchy.

I think that one thing that can be said of the Hull game is that we'd gotten back from Asia that week and had a couple of days off after all that flying, so I think our lads will have been a little bit off the pace.

I don't have a problem with whatever you decide just be consistent and don't use it to push your agenda.  If you think pre-season results mean nothing, stick by those guns and apply that logic equally.  I hate it when people will say "oh wouldn't read into xxx's performance, it was only a preseason friendly" then two seconds later congratulate someone else on being the best performer in the second half even though it's only a friendly.  If it's not ok for one player to be rusty, don't then use that excuse for another player.

I think they're meaningless - gaining match fitness and avoiding injuries is the most important part for me (which we did, so I see the game as a success).  I'm not concerned in the slightest, this friendly didn't tell me anything I didn't already know.

I think that one thing that can be said of the Hull game is that we'd gotten back from Asia that week and had a couple of days off after all that flying, so I think our lads will have been a little bit off the pace.

Kenny actually said after the game that they had been doing a lot of running and that the work they had done had been the equivalent of playing 1.5 game sin two days.

I would have to say no.  No in the respect that nothing is up for grabs apart from fitness, sharpness and first team places (and for some players to be in the shop window).

A couple of things to note.  The OP said Man Utd never have a bad pre-season.  Check out their stats from last year:

Man United 3-1 Celtic
Philadelphia Union 0-1 Man United
Kansas City Wizards 2-1 Man United
MLS All-Stars 2-5 Man United
Chivas 3-2 Man United
League of Ireland XI 1-7 Man United

So they lost two games, and conceded 9 goals against inferior opposition.  Could that be classed as poor?  It's not brilliant, but one thing is certain, it had no impact on them winning the league.

Interesting as well that in 06/07, when we reached the CL final for a second time under Rafa.  We'd secured 4th place quite early I recall, and for the last few games, played what you might call weakened teams (the 1-0 defeat to Fulham sticks out, although we did play them off the park).  If we had played full strength teams, we could have ended up with more points theoretically.

Perhaps more interesting are Man City's pre-season results last year:
Portland Timbers 0-3 Man City
Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Man City
New York Red Bulls 2-1 Man City
America 1-1 Man City
Inter Milan 3-0 Man City
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Man City
Man City 2-0 Valencia

I think they mean nothing.  Surprisingly, talksport came to the same conclusion which is where I got these results from.  Link is below.
http://www.talksport.co.uk/magazine/features/2011-07-22/premier-league-big-boys-2010-pre-season-results-did-they-mean-anything

I guess everyones interest and expectation is reignited so if we are perceived to be failing already people are going to start getting a little twitchy.

I see what you're saying and in many ways I'm trying to play devil's advocate here. The mancs still had 4 convincing wins during last year's pre-season so I'm not sure I would paint that as a bad pre-season. The point I'm making is that when we kick ass in pre-season everyone is quick to come to positive judgements about this player, that formation, that combination etc but when the results/performances go sour it becomes a meaningless game that is only about match fitness.

I would only be persuaded by the significance of any pre-season/season outcome correlation, Scott, if it covered a longer period and included other clubs's results, because you will undoubtedly find examples that contradict your findings, as the Man U one appears to bear out. It's funny because if Owzat was around he would be on it like a flash with his spread sheets etc. and we'd be in no doubt at all  
Anyway, even if that information was available I'm not convinced it would show a meaningful correlation. Perhaps that's because pre-season functions as a preparation period for the start of the season, and that once the season is well under way, the effects of that period have long since ceased to have an influence on the performance of the team. You might then find a more meaningful correlation by comparing pre-season results with the opening few games of the season.

It's all a bit statistical though and I can't be ar'sed with that right now to be perfectly honest. I'll just keep it simple and say that the gear up to the opening game is better served by winning and performing well in pre-season, particularly the friendlies nearer the start. I think it's the old fluency, rhythm, momentum, winning habit thing.

Historically, going even further back than the OP, I remember in the glory years we had some awful pre-season results.

In all honesty, they don't mean a lot.  Certainly not the games in July. 

They are not combative games like a competitive game is. 

Kenny actually said after the game that they had been doing a lot of running and that the work they had done had been the equivalent of playing 1.5 game sin two days.

I see what you're saying and in many ways I'm trying to play devil's advocate here. The mancs still had 4 convincing wins during last year's pre-season so I'm not sure I would paint that as a bad pre-season. The point I'm making is that when we kick ass in pre-season everyone is quick to come to positive judgements about this player, that formation, that combination etc but when the results/performances go sour it becomes a meaningless game that is only about match fitness.

I never said they had a bad pre-season, I just thought it wasn't especially brilliant as they lost 2 games and leaked a fair few goals 

I see totally what you are saying, if they mean nothing why get upset but at the same time why rave about performances when they mean nothing.  I suspect the root of that might be in what JD said.  Maybe it requires less physical effort to set up a nice move, pass or a great shot from outside the box..... than ..... last ditch sliding tackles that might result in injury?  So, we like to purr over the positive play and (some of us) become distressed when we let goals in during pre-season (if that all makes sense).

The thing that made me a uncomfortable about some of the reaction to the Hull game was that it was only a friendly game, in July, with many mitigating factors.  I thought the day we lose a league game, that means something, it's gonna go crazy knee-jerk in here.

These mean nothing apart from getting your fitness back. There's a reason why we fielded a different side in each half. Hull have been preparing for their season longer, have their first team squad and are no pushovers themselves. We have just returned from Asia, are still intensely working on our fitness and are still missing some important players.

I'm not bothered by the Hull defeat, simply because it means nothing.

They're what they're called friendly pre-season but you can put many things and account on them to calculate and analyze what you got and realize your cons and pros.
I think there are many things may hit us throughout a long 9-month marathon season and they are injuries, fatigue, weak/no depth and quality,... your players may suffer during pre-season.
They say you won't run fast if you can't walk right. When we're struggling to get our bodies fit enough and being organized to get ready for the season our confidence and results were below par from the start and as you may already know you have to stat well or your destiny may fall into others' hands and unfortunately we ain't learned it well

With KD I'm pretty sure we'd start well and can go all the way

Yes.
We should win them. No excuses.
If we are "tired from Asia"   F.F.S. then we shouldn't have arranged the game.

Yes. It's not acceptable to concede 9 goals against 3 poor teams and lose to Hull City.
We're Liverpool.

I think they do train fully before a match sometimes to get maximum training effect.The only results that count start with Sunderland.I really cant get excited either way about friendlies.

The next 3 are tough games and the opposition will be taking it very seriously, we will see how far away we are.....