League Season Analysis - 2011/12

A continuation of similar threads from previous seasons.  Gives some kind of indication of how the teams are getting on, bearing in mind they have different standards of opponents each week.

Title target = 87 points (based on 1 point higher than the highest team placed 2nd in recent years - which was actually Liverpool)
Top four target = 68 points (the highest a team has finished in 5th in recent years was on 67 points)

I have approximated the targets as follows.  The 'easiest' and 'hardest' are based on last years league position. Newly promoted clubs count as bottom 3.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Utd, City, Chelsea, Arsenal).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, Fulham, Villa). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Utd, Chelsea, City)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (68 points)

Requirements:
Win your 11 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 6 (City, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, Fulham, Villa). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (Utd, Chelsea)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Newcastle, West Brom, Sunderland, Villa, Fulham). Defeated at the hardest 6. (Utd, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton)

P38 W19 D11 L8 Pts 68

Title Target (at 28th August 2011)

Liverpool

Sunderland (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2)
Arsenal (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)
Bolton (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)

Overall = 0. On course to challenge for title.

Top Four Target (at 28th August 2011)

Liverpool

Sunderland (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2)
Arsenal (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Win (+3)
Bolton (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)

Overall = +1. On course to finish in the top four.


Other clubs at 28th August 2011

Man City

Title Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)
Bolton (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)
Spurs (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)

Overall = +2. On course to challenge for the title.

Top Four Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)
Bolton (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)
Spurs (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Win (+3)

Overall = +3. On course to finish top four.

Man Utd

Title Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)
Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)
Arsenal (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)

Overall = +4. On course to challenge for title.

Top Four Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)
Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)
Arsenal (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)

Overall = +6. On course for top four.

Chelsea

Title Target

Stoke (A) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2)
West Brom (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)
Norwich (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)

Overall = -2 points. Not on course to challenge for title.

Top Four Target

Stoke (A) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2)
West Brom (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2)
Norwich (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (0)

Overall = 0 points. On course for top four.

Arsenal

Title Target

Newcastle (A) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2)
Liverpool (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3)
Man Utd (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0)

Overall = -5. Not on course to challenge for the title.

Top Four Target

Newcastle (A) Predicted Draw Actual Draw (0)
Liverpool (H) Predicted Draw Actual Defeat (-1)
Man Utd (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0)

Overall = -1. Not on course for top four.

Spurs

Title Target

United (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0)
City (H) Predicted Draw Actual Defeat (-1)

Overall = -1. Not on course to challenge for the title.

Top Four Target

United (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0)
City (H) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0)

Overall = 0. Spurs on course for top four finish.


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Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +4
Man City +2
Liverpool 0
Spurs -1
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -5

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +6
Man City +3
Liverpool +1
Chelsea 0
Spurs 0
Arsenal -1

Next Fixtures

Not much excitement in the next lot of fixtures.  Lots to lose for the teams.

To challenge for title

Liverpool should beat Stoke (A)
Man City should beat Wigan (H)
Arsenal should beat Swansea (H)
Chelsea should beat Sunderland (A)
Man Utd should beat Bolton (A)
Spurs should beat Wolves (A)

To challenge for top four

Liverpool should beat Stoke (A)
Man City should beat Wigan (H)
Arsenal should beat Swansea (H)
Chelsea should at least draw at Sunderland (A)
Man Utd should beat Bolton (A)
Spurs should beat Wolves (A)

I think Sunderland is a harder game than Fulham.

Liverpool should beat Stoke (A)

I think Stoke away will be a very difficult game and I think a draw would be a respectable result. A win certainly is possible but Stoke away is always a tricky game and I don't think it'll be that easy. Real challenge for the players.

Anyway I'm not a big fan of predicting opponents and ours results this early in the season; think it's best to take it one game at a time and see where we are in comparison to our opponents after Christmas time.

Like the idea though

Cracking thread JD. Just one minor issue, you say in the 'title challenge' bit that you can lose to your toughest two rivals, and then it says in Arsenal's 'title challenge' section that they should've drawn at United. Surely this should be considered the hardest away game?

Cool analysis and kudos for what seems like something you put some serious thought into. Good to see that we are starting off on the right foot this year. Let's keep it going now!

Cracking thread JD. Just one minor issue, you say in the 'title challenge' bit that you can lose to your toughest two rivals, and then it says in Arsenal's 'title challenge' section that they should've drawn at United. Surely this should be considered the hardest away game?

Well spotted.  Amended.  Didn't make too much difference to the fact that they already look in trouble.

Anyway I'm not a big fan of predicting opponents and ours results this early in the season; think it's best to take it one game at a time and see where we are in comparison to our opponents after Christmas time.

I agree - it's just a way of looking at how teams are going on compared to who they have played.  For example, Spurs don't come off too bad even though they have lost 2 games because they are 'harder games'.

I read somewhere that Liverpool could be as much as 8 points off by Christmas because of the 'toughness' of the games, yet still be on target for high 80's points score.

Anyway, it will be more useful as time goes on.

I think Stoke away will be a very difficult game and I think a draw would be a respectable result. A win certainly is possible but Stoke away is always a tricky game and I don't think it'll be that easy. Real challenge for the players.

Anyway I'm not a big fan of predicting opponents and ours results this early in the season; think it's best to take it one game at a time and see where we are in comparison to our opponents after Christmas time.

Like the idea though

This.
This will turn out to be an a amazing thread!

Like the idea though

I think so

This look brilliant JD.

Nice idea... in theory and reality we should beat Stoke, doesnt matter how as long as we do.
The challenge will come towards the end of the season, when the pressure is really on!
I hope we can scrape a few scrappy wins, when needed...coz that will see us into the top 4 and challenging for the title

Encouraging start.

Great idea JD, will be good to see how it all evolves.

Bet your opening post took a long time to write

we need at least 4 points from the games vs Stoke and Tottenham and send a message to our opponents, We're back on track and as strong as ever and you shall fear Gerrard(fitter than ever), Suarez, Carroll and Downing. Seriously we must make sure that the other teams fear us. With Kenny I won't be surprised if we challenge for the title in January.

Last season we got 0 points from our next 3 games. I think 7 points out of 9 would be seriously good work, Stoke and Wolves are in form, Spurs away might be the right time to play them.

come on lads....

Interesting thread JD, which more or less falls in with my predictions for the season 86 - 88 points to win the league and Liverpool to get 78 points.

If we are to get the 10 points or so extra that we need in my estimation to win the league, I think we need to go on a good early run of wins, as I always expect us to do better in the second half of the season. The smaller clubs squads start to feel the strain and some of the bigger clubs take their eye off the ball with CL demands once we hit the second half of the season. Without the distraction of Europe we should have an added advantage.

If we can stay at or near the top ,within good striking distance (2 or 3 points) at Christmas I think we will have a real chance.  5 points or more off the top at Christmas and I think the best we can hope for is CL and a fight for 3rd.

Cracking thread JD. Just one minor issue, you say in the 'title challenge' bit that you can lose to your toughest two rivals, and then it says in Arsenal's 'title challenge' section that they should've drawn at United. Surely this should be considered the hardest away game?

Keep your mind "boggling" & running on 100% peak performance. Like this thread already, b interesting to see how it goes, think it will be close to the actual table.

Well done, JD. 

Updated after 10th September 2011

Not good reading sadly.
Liverpool dropped points as they were expected to win today - both for a title charge and a top four charge.
Chelsea gained points challenging for the top four as a draw would have been a good enough result at Sunderland for their top four hopes.
All the other clubs were expected to win so no change for them.

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +4
Man City +2
Spurs -1
Chelsea -2
Liverpool -3
Arsenal -5

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +6
Man City +3
Chelsea +2
Spurs 0
Arsenal -1
Liverpool -2

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Next weeks fixtures have a lot more variation.

Remember: Anything better than the below results gives points (good result), anything less loses points (poor result).

Arsenal expected to win against Blackburn for both tables.
Spurs expected to beat Liverpool (for title) expected to draw Liverpool (top four)
Liverpool expected to draw at Spurs (for title) expected to lose at Spurs (top four)
Man City expected to draw against Fulham away for both tables.
Chelsea expected to lose at United (for both)
Man Utd expected to lose against Chelsea (top four) or draw (for title)

Arsenal and Spurs with the most to lose, the other four with the most to gain.

Said in the pre-match thread that I think a draw away to Stoke would be enough for top four, but Clattenburg denied us even that...

Anyway, winning next week will erase this

Couple of disappointing results in our first four games has taken a bit of the shine off, we really need a good win at Spurs now to get the show back on the road. Just hope the return of Gerrard doesn't take the teams eye off the ball and we smash them.   

Below emphasises the 'difficulty' of the next few games.

LFC's fixtures until 2012

Par results to challenge for title (currently on -3pts)

Spurs (A) - Draw
Wolves (H) - Win
Everton (A) - Draw
Man Utd (H) - Draw
Norwich (H) - Win
West Brom (A) - Win
Swansea (H) - Win
Chelsea (A) - Lose
Man City (H) - Draw
Fulham (A) - Draw
QPR (H) - Win
Villa (A) - Win
Wigan (A) - Win
Blackburn (H) - Win
Newcastle (H) - Win

Pts 32/45 P15 W9 D5 L1

Par results to get top four (currently on -2pts)

Spurs (A) - Lose
Wolves (H) - Win
Everton (A) - Lose
Man Utd (H) - Lose
Norwich (H) - Win
West Brom (A) - Draw
Swansea (H) - Win
Chelsea (A) - Lose
Man City (H) - Draw
Fulham (A) - Draw
QPR (H) - Win
Villa (A) - Draw
Wigan (A) - Win
Blackburn (H) - Win
Newcastle (H) - Win

Pts 25/45 P15 W7 D4 L4

In other words to get back on course for the title we need 9 points out of our next 12.
And to get back to top four form we need 5 points out of our next 12.

Surprised at just how "easy" it looks when you put it like that JD. Villa away looks the most difficult!

Surprised at just how "easy" it looks when you put it like that JD. Villa away looks the most difficult!

Was about to say the same!

There's not much point in beating Arsenal then having not beaten Sunderland or Stoke.

We'd usually beat Sunderland and draw against Arsenal so we're basically back to square one.

There's not much point in beating Arsenal then having not beaten Sunderland or Stoke.

We'd usually beat Sunderland and draw against Arsenal so we're basically back to square one.

Actually 2 points better off, in comparable fixtures, thus far.