League Season Analysis - 2011/12

You know it's been a bad weekend when even the Season Analysis can't make it read any better.

You know it's been a bad weekend when even the Season Analysis can't make it read any better.

True.

4 of the last 6 games have been horrible.  And it shows in the table sadly.  Three wins in our next three games would turn it around but has to be said - looks an enormous ask.

68 point target, which was based on previous years, again looks to be a very solid target for fourth place.  Couple of people thought you would need in to the 70's for 4th but yet again the table is playing to historical form.  If we win our next three we will be back on target for it.

Good thread, this, but surely this table can't be correct:

Performance challenging for the top four

Man City +16
Man Utd +12
Spurs +5
Newcastle -1
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -3
Liverpool -5

I take 68 pts to be the average points taken to achieve a fourth place finish since it became a CL qualifiying position ten seasons ago. But by that figure the table should surely read:

Man City +25
Man U + 20
Spurs + 12
Chelsea + 3
Arsenal - 6
Newcastle - 6
Liverpool - 7


That is, continuing at the current rate, these teams would finish this far above or below the 68 pt target.

I take 68 pts to be the average points taken to achieve a fourth place finish since it became a CL qualifiying position ten seasons ago. But by that figure the table should surely read:

As it says in the opening post we have applied two different sets of 'form' to the teams.  One table is using title form, one is top four form.

In the title form table, Man City and United have been holding pretty steady between +0 and +7 points - all the other clubs have continued to fall away.

In the top four form table they have been continuing to pull away, and yes - like you say will  probably continue increasing to at least +20 pts past it.

So it's more about looking at the overall trend.  If you look at the title table it's pretty obvious from very early on that it was a two horse race.  And in the top four table, from about game 11 it was looking ominously like Spurs were the best of the also rans for the CL.

It will be interesting to analyse at the end of the season, but I definitely believe there is a good method in analysing the relative difficulty of games - born out by correctly reducing Man City's massive early lead and Newcastle's early big points total.

How's this looking as of today?   

Well we won a game against wolves, probably didn't change much haha! Look at it after Tottenham!

February ....... the month that will decide or at least define our season ?

If we are to mount a genuine challenge for better than fourth place I think we need to get at least 4 points from the two games against Spurs and the mancs. Lose either game(OR BOTH!) and 3rd place effectively becomes a dream rather than a distant possibility.

Then we have the league cup final, followed by an F.A. cup game, both of which are of vital consequence in how we will look back on this season..... with pleasure at the memory of cups won, or with sadness at defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

Win all 4 and the world's our lobster, lose all four and we may as well start introducing the more promising of our reserves in anticipation of next season.     

I agree with what you are saying s@int but I have a gut feeling that we are on the crest of all the good things that have been missing from Anfield for too long.The fact that there was no big signings in the transfer window should make the lads more settled,also I think Luis Suarez will be raring to go so he can give some payback to the club and fans.I have complete faith in Kenny and the lads to finish this season off in style.

So do I Billy, I am anticipating great things to come this month. The surprising thing (for me) is that even though I hate the mancs with a passion, if I HAD to pick one game out of the four to lose it would be the game against the mancs.

Hopefully with Gerrard back, Suarez returning and our strikers starting to hit the net such an evil choice won't be necessary and our march towards trophies and Europe will proceed as we all hope and expect.

Start February a win -v spuds and we are laughing. we owe them !

I think a reasonable return we can expect is an average of 4 points for every 2 games, that will get us 28-30 points, which will put us in the 4th place points bracket 66 points ish...

I think we can do that, we will have to pick more home wins, but I sense the confidence is buzzin, and with Suarez coming back & gerrard getting closer to his best we could have a really great end to this season.

How's this looking as of today?   

Very marginally a little better! Or to be more accurate - a little bit worse for Arsenal and Chelsea.

Double update will be after our game Monday.

Updated 7th February 2012

A round up from the last two Premier League games.

Aiming for the Title

Chelsea should beat Swansea (A) -2
Spurs should beat Wigan (H) 0
Liverpool should beat Wolves (A) 0
Man City should draw at Everton (A) -1
Man Utd should beat Stoke (H) 0
Newcastle should beat Blackburn (A) 0
Arsenal should beat Bolton (A) -2

Man City should beat Fulham (H) 0
Chelsea should draw against Man Utd (H) 0
Man Utd should lose against Chelsea (A) +1
Newcastle should beat Aston Villa (H) 0
Arsenal should beat Blackburn (H) 0
Spurs should draw at Liverpool (A) 0
Liverpool should beat Spurs (H) -2

Aiming for the Top Four

Chelsea should beat Swansea (A) -2
Spurs should beat Wigan (H) 0
Liverpool should beat Wolves (A) 0
Man City should lose at Everton (A) 0
Man Utd should beat Stoke (H) 0
Newcastle should beat Blackburn (A) 0
Arsenal should beat Bolton (A) -2

Man City should draw against Fulham (H) +2
Chelsea should lose against Man Utd (H) +1
Man Utd should lose against Chelsea (A) +1
Newcastle should beat Aston Villa (H) 0
Arsenal should beat Blackburn (H) 0
Spurs should lose at Liverpool (A) +1
Liverpool should draw against Spurs (H) 0

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man Utd +5
Man City +3
Spurs -6
Liverpool -13
Newcastle -14
Arsenal -15
Chelsea -18



Performance challenging for the top four

Man City +18
Man Utd +13
Spurs +6
Newcastle -1
Chelsea -3
Arsenal -5
Liverpool -5




Up Next (11-12th Feb)

Big weekend ahead for some major point changes.  The only team that can't gain points are Spurs - who are the only team expected to win for both tables.
 
Aiming for the Title

Liverpool should lose at Man Utd (A)
Man Utd should beat Liverpool (H)
Man City should draw at Aston Villa (A)
Chelsea should draw at Everton (A)
Newcastle should draw with Spurs (A)
Arsenal should beat Sunderland (A)
Spurs should beat Newcastle (H)

Aiming for the Top Four

Liverpool should lose at Man Utd (A)
Man Utd should draw with Liverpool (H)
Man City should draw at Aston Villa (A)
Chelsea should lose at Everton (A)
Newcastle should lose at Spurs (A)
Arsenal should draw at Sunderland (A)
Spurs should beat Newcastle (H)

Why have you deducted two points for Spurs beating Wigan? Is that an error?

Thanks as always for your hard work in producing this, I always look forward to it.

Why have you deducted two points for Spurs beating Wigan? Is that an error?

Minor typing error - now corrected.  All the tables and graphs were correct though.

Interesting that from the title graph, even from the very start of the season it looked like only two teams were in the race.  Even Spurs who flitted in and out started to dip by game 14.

It's also worth noting that up until the 16th game of the season the reds had been doing relatively well, but since then we have not had a single better than average result.  Even a draw at the weekend would halt this trend.

Spurs have got such a tough run coming up that they probably can't fall much further - it can only be ups for them.  Which places even more pressure on Liverpool to get something out of the next two games against United and Arsenal.

It's looking increasingly likely that this season the Premier League winners may need 90 points, and our 68 point target for 4th place looks like (at the moment) it will be more than enough.

The biggest elephant in the room is our top scorer has 6 just 6 goals and he (Bellamy) is a free signing.
We have to solve this problem now if we are to climb back to the CL spot. If we stumble on as we have done in the earlier part of the season we will not get a CL spot. All the stats bar the most important one are good so with Luis ,Stevie and a surprisingly aggresive Andy we can change that awful stat of goals scored.
Beating UTD again would be such a great boost and I dont fear going there one bit as long as we dont get a sending off in the first 10 mins which has occured a few times over the last few years.

Only small crumb of comfort I can offer is that if we apply the top four fixture rules then we are only expected to get 4 points from our next 4 matches. 

Real opportunity therefore for us to gain back some of the 5 points we are behind.  We can still turn it around.

It's all about our home form - It must improve

This has been our problem for 20 odd years:

17.12.2000 1 - 0  Manchester United  Old Trafford Premier League
23.12.2000 4 - 0  Arsenal  Anfield Premier League
26.12.2000 0 - 1  Middlesbrough  Riverside Premier League

Updated 12th February 2012

The round up of the weekend.  Man City the pick of the bunch - many of the other games going with expectations.

Aiming for the Title

Liverpool should lose at Man Utd (A) 0
Man Utd should beat Liverpool (H) 0
Man City should draw at Aston Villa (A) +2
Chelsea should draw at Everton (A) -1
Newcastle should draw with Spurs (A) -1
Arsenal should beat Sunderland (A) 0
Spurs should beat Newcastle (H) 0

Aiming for the Top Four

Liverpool should lose at Man Utd (A) 0
Man Utd should draw with Liverpool (H) +2
Man City should draw at Aston Villa (A) +2
Chelsea should lose at Everton (A) 0
Newcastle should lose at Spurs (A) 0
Arsenal should draw at Sunderland (A) +2
Spurs should beat Newcastle (H) 0

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man Utd +5
Man City +5
Spurs -6
Liverpool -13
Newcastle -15
Arsenal -15
Chelsea -19



Performance challenging for the top four

Man City +20
Man Utd +15
Spurs +6
Newcastle -1
Chelsea -3
Arsenal -3
Liverpool -5




Up Next (25th-26th February)

Bit of a break in the Premier League due to the FA Cup and the Manchester giants going for glory in the Europa League.  Liverpool don't play in the next round of the Premier League due to commitments at Wembley. 
 
Aiming for the Title

Chelsea should beat Bolton (H)
Newcastle should beat Wolves (H)
Man City should beat Blackburn (H)
Arsenal should draw against Spurs (H)
Spurs should draw against Arsenal (A)
Man Utd should beat Norwich (A)

Aiming for the Top Four

Chelsea should beat Bolton (H)
Newcastle should beat Wolves (H)
Man City should beat Blackburn (H)
Arsenal should draw against Spurs (H)
Spurs should lose to Arsenal (A)
Man Utd should beat Norwich (A)

Last 6
Man City          A   0-3
Stoke              H   0-0
Bolton             A   1-3
Wolves            A   3-0
Spurs              H   0-0
Man Utd          A   1-2

Next 4
Arsenal           H
Sunderland     A
QPR               A
Wigan            H

From our last 6 I was expecting 12 points, think our cup heroics have patched over the fact we've had a poor run in the league (albeit with games against the top 3).

Don't know what to expect from our March league games to be honest, on paper Im hoping for at least 9 points but the way this season is going, not sure which are the harder games for us.

Updated 14th March 2012

Time for a bumper update for the last 3 games (due to LFC's rearranged Everton game that should have been the day we won the League Cup).  Over the last 3 games Arsenal have had the best set of results, whereas Newcastle have marginally had the worst set of results.

Aiming for the Title

Spurs should draw against Arsenal (A) -1
Spurs should draw against Man Utd (H) -1
Spurs should draw against Everton (A) -1

Arsenal should draw against Spurs (H) +2
Arsenal should draw against Liverpool (A) +2
Arsenal should beat Newcastle (H) 0

Liverpool should draw against Arsenal (H) -1
Liverpool should beat Sunderland (A) -3
Liverpool should beat Everton (H) 0

Chelsea should beat Bolton (H) 0
Chelsea should beat WBA (A) -3
Chelsea should beat Stoke (H) 0

Man Utd should beat Norwich (A) 0
Man Utd should draw Spurs (A) +2
Man Utd should beat WBA (H) 0

Man City should beat Blackburn (H) 0
Man City should beat Bolton (H) 0
Man City should beat Swansea (A) -3

Newcastle should beat Wolves (H) -2
Newcastle should beat Sunderland (H) -2
Newcastle should draw against Arsenal (A) -1

Aiming for the Top Four

Spurs should lose against Arsenal (A) 0
Spurs should lose against Man Utd (H) 0
Spurs should lose against Everton (A) 0

Arsenal should draw against Spurs (H) +2
Arsenal should lose against Liverpool (A) +3
Arsenal should beat Newcastle (H) 0

Liverpool should draw against Arsenal (H) -1
Liverpool should draw against Sunderland (A) -1
Liverpool should draw against Everton (H) +2

Chelsea should beat Bolton (H) 0
Chelsea should draw WBA (A) -1
Chelsea should beat Stoke (H) 0

Man Utd should beat Norwich (A) 0
Man Utd should lose at Spurs (A) +3
Man Utd should beat WBA (H) 0

Man City should beat Blackburn (H) 0
Man City should beat Bolton (H) 0
Man City should beat Swansea (A) -3

Newcastle should beat Wolves (H) -2
Newcastle should beat Sunderland (H) -2
Newcastle should lose against Arsenal (A) 0

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man Utd +7
Man City +2
Spurs -9
Liverpool -17
Newcastle -20
Arsenal -11
Chelsea -22



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +18
Man City +17
Spurs +6
Arsenal +2
Chelsea -4
Liverpool -5
Newcastle -5



Analysis

According to our title chart we have rarely had Man City ahead of United - despite what the PL table was saying at some points in the first half of the season.  This was most evident at the start when although City had a big lead, we still had United ahead due to game difficulty.  Sadly, the way the PL table now looks reflects this.  Liverpool were keeping decent pace until game 17-27 when they suffered a number of disappointing results.

According to our top four chart, Spurs have been steady in their results for the last 14 games - despite their 3 defeats in the last 3 games - these were results that we expected and they look on course.  Arsenal have had a excellent last 4 results and separated themselves from the pack, and Liverpool's defeat over Everton was the first 'better than expected' result in 12 matches.

Up Next (17-21st March)

FA Cup will interfere with the next round of Premier League fixtures.  Teams affected by the FA Cup will play their games next midweek.
 
Aiming for the Title

Newcastle should beat Norwich (H)
Man City should draw against Chelsea (H)
Man Utd should beat Wolves (A)
Chelsea should lose against Man City (A)
Liverpool should beat QPR (A)
Arsenal should draw at Everton (A)
Spurs should beat Stoke (H)

Aiming for the Top Four

Newcastle should beat Norwich (H)
Man City should lose against Chelsea (H)
Man Utd should beat Wolves (A)
Chelsea should lose against Man City (A)
Liverpool should beat QPR (A)
Arsenal should lose at Everton (A)
Spurs should beat Stoke (H)

Updated 3rd April 2012

Update from the last three games.  Poor reading for LFC.

Aiming for the Title

Newcastle should beat Norwich (H) 0
Newcastle should beat West Brom (A) 0
Newcastle should beat Liverpool (H) 0

Man City should draw against Chelsea (H) +2
Man City should beat Stoke (A) -2
Man City should beat Sunderland (H) -2

Man Utd should beat Wolves (A) 0
Man Utd should beat Fulham (H) 0
Man Utd should beat Blackburn (A) 0

Chelsea should lose against Man City (A) 0
Chelsea should draw against Spurs (H) 0
Chelsea should draw against Villa (A) +2

Liverpool should beat QPR (A) -3
Liverpool should beat Wigan (H) -3
Liverpool should beat Newcastle (A) -3

Arsenal should draw at Everton (A) +2
Arsenal should beat Villa (H) 0
Arsenal should beat QPR (A) -3

Spurs should beat Stoke (H) -2
Spurs should lose against Chelsea (A) +1
Spurs should beat Swansea (H) 0

Aiming for the Top Four

Newcastle should beat Norwich (H) 0
Newcastle should draw West Brom (A) 0
Newcastle should draw Liverpool (H) +2

Man City should lose against Chelsea (H) +3
Man City should beat Stoke (A) -2
Man City should beat Sunderland (H) -2

Man Utd should beat Wolves (A) 0
Man Utd should draw against Fulham (H) +2
Man Utd should beat Blackburn (A) 0

Chelsea should lose against Man City (A) 0
Chelsea should draw against Spurs (H) 0
Chelsea should draw against Villa (A)  +2

Liverpool should beat QPR (A) -3
Liverpool should beat Wigan (H) -3
Liverpool should draw Newcastle (A) -1

Arsenal should lose at Everton (A) +3
Arsenal should draw against Villa (H) +2
Arsenal should beat QPR (A) -3

Spurs should beat Stoke (H) -2
Spurs should lose against Chelsea (A) +1
Spurs should beat Swansea (H) 0

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man Utd +7
Man City 0
Spurs -10
Arsenal -12
Newcastle -20
Chelsea -20
Liverpool -26



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +20
Man City +16
Spurs +5
Arsenal +4
Chelsea -2
Newcastle -3
Liverpool -12



Analysis

Liverpool should have picked up 7 out of their last 9 points to be credible challengers for a top four side - they didn't grab a single point.

After a promising opening half of the season, Liverpool's season appeared to pivot around the half way mark.  Be this the Luis Suarez saga, or the intensification of three cup games against Man City and Man Utd can only be speculated on - but the reds were in a good position for the top four but let everyone else overtake them.

Arsenal enjoyed a poor start to the season but their turnaround has been phenomenal.

Much has been made of Roberto Di Matteo's return at Chelsea but he appears to only be picking up expected results anyway. 

Prediction

Spurs and Arsenal look nailed on for 3rd and 4th according to our graphs, and from the very first game of the season we had Man Utd as title favourites.  It is only now, game 31, that the actual league table, sadly, matches our prediction.  Chelsea will finish outside the Champions League places, and Newcastle will miss out on European football unless Liverpool do them a favour by winning the FA Cup Semi Final.

Up Next (7th-8th April)

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should draw against Man City (H)
Liverpool should beat Villa (H)
Chelsea should beat Wigan (H)
Man Utd should beat QPR (H)
Man City should lose against Arsenal (A)
Newcastle should beat Swansea (A)
Spurs should beat Sunderland (A)

Aiming for the Top Four

Arsenal should draw against Man City (H)
Liverpool should draw against Villa (H)
Chelsea should beat Wigan (H)
Man Utd should beat QPR (H)
Man City should lose against Arsenal (A)
Newcastle should beat Swansea (A)
Spurs should draw against Sunderland (A)