League Season Analysis - 2011/12

Updated 18th September 2011 (As it stands)

Biggest losers of the weekend are Arsenal - who are now 8 points off a title charge after only 5 games - with poor results in games they should have been winning.

Aiming for the title

Arsenal should have beat Blackburn (Lost) -3
LFC should have drew at Spurs (Lost) -1
Spurs should have beat Liverpool (Won) 0
City should have drew at Fulham (Drew) 0
Man Utd expected to draw Chelsea (Won) +2
Chelsea expected to lose at United (Lost) 0

Aiming for top four

Arsenal should have beat Blackburn (Lost) -3
LFC expected to lose at Spurs (Lost) 0
Spurs expected to draw against LFC (Won) +2
City expected to draw against Fulham (Drew) 0
United expect to lose against Chelsea (Won) +3
Chelsea expected to lose against United (Lost) 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +6
Man City +2
Spurs -1
Chelsea -2
Liverpool -4
Arsenal -8

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +9
Man City +3
Chelsea +2
Spurs +2
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -4


Coming up next week

Aiming for the Title

All 'top 6' teams should win their respective games next weekend.

Aiming for the Top Four

City should draw Everton (H)
Liverpool should beat Wolves (H)
Arsenal should beat Bolton (H)
Chelsea should beat Swansea (H)
Man Utd should beat Stoke (A)
Spurs should beat Wigan (A)

And still 2 points better off than we were against the same teams, last season.

Stoke the fifth harderst away game, so that table is incorrect.

Stoke the fifth harderst away game, so that table is incorrect.

Read the first post again.

And as Spurs finished 5th then they have been deemed the fifth hardest away game.

Thanks for your useful input though.

Amended latest table with City getting a draw.

Man Utd have had the much better start v City comparing fixtures played.

If LFC get 5 points from the next 3 games (ie. expected 3 points + 2 points to catch up) then they will be back on target for a top four finish.

If they manage to get 9 points from the next 3 games (ie. expected 5 points + 4 points to catch up) they will be on course for a title winning points total.

And if aunty Ann had bollocks she would be my Uncle

Good perspective there JD

Also, we are +2 points on like for like games last year.  And +2 for 5 games played on last year.

Updated 25th September 2011 (As it stands)

Not too much change as most teams were expected to win and did.  Only Man Utd had an unexpected poor result.  Man City had the best result, as to qualify for the top four a draw against Everton was expected.

Aiming for the title

Arsenal should have beat Bolton (Won) 0
LFC should have beat Wolves (Won) 0
Chelsea should have beat Swansea (Won) 0
City should have beat Everton (Won) 0
Man Utd should have beat Stoke (Drew) -2
Spurs should have beat Wigan (Won) 0

Aiming for top four

Arsenal should have beat Bolton (Won) 0
LFC should have beat Wolves (Won) 0
Chelsea should have beat Swansea (Won) 0
City should have drew against Everton (Won) +2
Man Utd should have beat Stoke (Drew) -2
Spurs should have beat Wigan (Won) 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +4
Man City +2
Spurs -1
Chelsea -2
Liverpool -4
Arsenal -8

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +7
Man City +5
Chelsea +2
Spurs +2
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -4


Coming up next week

Big opportunities for Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs to get 'better than expected' results next week.  The other 3 are all expected to win so have no points to 'gain' in our table.

Aiming for the Title

LFC should draw against Everton (A)
Man Utd should beat Norwich (H)
Man City should beat Blackburn (A)
Chelsea should beat Bolton (A)
Arsenal should draw Spurs (A)
Spurs should draw Arsenal (H)

Aiming for the Top Four

LFC should lose against Everton (A)
Man Utd should beat Norwich (H)
Man City should beat Blackburn (A)
Chelsea should beat Bolton (A)
Arsenal should lose at Spurs (A)
Spurs should draw Arsenal (H)

@JD, I don't post very often but I really like what you are doing here.  I like the way you've worked things out and it's the best way I've seen to see where we stand according to teams played against.

Keep up the good work.

Agree.

Good post this JD.

If John Henry or Kenny takes a peep at the forum it shows we are on the ball ('scuse pun) and we have our own system.
Tell em its copyrighted and get the Fees in ...so we can all go for a bevvy at Christmas.

Agree - as a bit of football tragic, I love this kind of thing and it will be intersting to see how accurate it is as the season progresses. 

I am always interested to see how we have gone in games played as compared to the previous season as well.  Think at the moment we are up by 5 points on corresponding fixtures.  May try and look at that one and expand it out.

Have done some work and compared to last season the same 6 teams are up or down points as follows:
Arsenal                       -4
Chelsea                        0
Liverpool                     +5
Manchester City           +5
Manchester United          0
Tottenham Hotspur       +4

For the pupose of the analysis I have rated the 3 promoted teams in the same order as the 3 relegated teams.  Have done the whole division, and is quite interesting if you like that kind of thing.  Will update this through the season and can add in here if it fits this thread.

Agree - as a bit of football tragic, I love this kind of thing and it will be intersting to see how accurate it is as the season progresses. 

I am always interested to see how we have gone in games played as compared to the previous season as well.  Think at the moment we are up by 5 points on corresponding fixtures.  May try and look at that one and expand it out.

Have done some work and compared to last season the same 6 teams are up or down points as follows:
Arsenal                       -4
Chelsea                        0
Liverpool                     +5
Manchester City           +5
Manchester United          0
Tottenham Hotspur       +4

For the pupose of the analysis I have rated the 3 promoted teams in the same order as the 3 relegated teams.  Have done the whole division, and is quite interesting if you like that kind of thing.  Will update this through the season and can add in here if it fits this thread.

Did that for my own nerdy joy, puts Bolton's form into perspective, as they're actually better a point better off against the 'same' teams.

@JD, I don't post very often but I really like what you are doing here.  I like the way you've worked things out and it's the best way I've seen to see where we stand according to teams played against.

Keep up the good work.

Can I echo this-appreciate the effort JD!

Updated 2nd October 2011 (As it stands)

Great results for Liverpool and Spurs which were better than expected.  Arsenal's slide continues.  All the rest got the results expected.  Spurs now move in to third to highlight their decent start.  The reds close the gap on Chelsea.

Aiming for the Title

LFC should draw against Everton (Won) +2
Man Utd should beat Norwich (Won) 0
Man City should beat Blackburn (Won) 0
Chelsea should beat Bolton (Won) 0
Arsenal should draw Spurs (Lost) -1
Spurs should draw Arsenal (Won) +2

Aiming for the Top Four

LFC should lose against Everton (Won) +3
Man Utd should beat Norwich (Won) 0
Man City should beat Blackburn (Won) 0
Chelsea should beat Bolton (Won) 0
Arsenal should lose at Spurs (Lost) 0
Spurs should draw Arsenal (Won) +2

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +4
Man City +2
Spurs +1
Chelsea -2
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -9

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +7
Man City +5
Spurs +4
Chelsea +2
Liverpool +1
Arsenal -4


Coming up next

Opportunities for both Liverpool and United to do better than expected - a draw would be title form for both clubs.  The other top 6 teams are all expected to win to maintain title form.  It will also be Newcastle's first significant test in the league, home against Spurs.

Aiming for the Title

LFC should draw against Man Utd (H)
Man Utd should draw at Liverpool (A)
Man City should beat Villa (H)
Chelsea should beat Everton (H)
Arsenal should beat Sunderland (H)
Spurs should beat Newcastle (A)

Aiming for the Top Four

LFC should lose against Man Utd (H)
Man Utd should lose at Liverpool (A)
Man City should draw against Villa (H)
Chelsea should draw against Everton (H)
Arsenal should beat Sunderland (H)
Spurs should draw at Newcastle (A)

So - Newcastle are currently 4th, 2 points ahead of Liverpool.

Impressive eh?

Well, no not yet - as our above method of working out actually shows.

As you can see, if we applied the same rules to Newcastle as to the rest of the 'usual top 6' then we get these as their predicted results.

Draw against Arsenal (Draw) 0
Beat Sunderland away (Won) 0
Beat Fulham home (Won) 0
Beat QPR away (Draw) -2
Beat Aston Villa away (Draw) -2
Beat Blackburn home (Won) 0
Beat Wolves away (Won) 0

Total -4.

Better than Arsenal, but worse than the other top five - ourselves included.

This is another example of how analysing the difficulty of your opponents can make a better assessment of how the league table is really developing.

If LFC get 5 points from the next 3 games (ie. expected 3 points + 2 points to catch up) then they will be back on target for a top four finish.
If they manage to get 9 points from the next 3 games (ie. expected 5 points + 4 points to catch up) they will be on course for a title winning points total.

Reasons To Be Cheerful.

I'm loving this thread, very good idea.

So, again in terms of a comparison to last seasons results in the same fixtures, here's how the same six sides are compared to last season:

Arsenal                 -5
Chelsea                  0
Liverpool                 +8
Manchester City    +5
Manchester United      0
Tottenham Hotspur  +6

So while United are still ahead of the pack, they and Chelsea have not picked up any points in comparison to how they did in those games last year - Arsenal obviously the big loser.

Liverpool                 +8
Tottenham Hotspur  +6
Manchester City    +5
Chelsea                  0
Manchester United      0
Arsenal                 -5

Rearranged that table for you

Interesting to compare our results team for team v those last year.

Mad to think that of the 7 games we have played so far, in those fixtures last year we only managed 5 points.

Reasons To Be Cheerful.

Well reminded.  No matter what the United result we will still be a minimum of +1 points on course for finishing in the top four.

I've been posting the tables after every game but here are the two graphs showing how well the teams are doing game by game.



Man Utd and Man City have both been showing title form since the opening day of the season.  The reds were on course after both the 2nd and 3rd game before falling back.  Spurs are now in positive points territory as the third team capable of challenging for the title.

Chelsea suffered a disappointing result from which they have yet to post an unexpected result.



Spurs have spent every week in positive territory for a top four place.  Chelsea (apart from their opening game) have also looked solid for the top four.

Liverpool have been in contention for the top four after 3 of our 7 games so far.

Arsenal are already looking like they need some unexpected results, as well as 2 of the other clubs to drop easy points.

Updated 17th October 2011 (As it stands)

Everyone got the predicted result in the title chase, apart from Spurs who should have won at Newcastle if they were chasing the title.

Aiming for the Title

LFC should draw against Man Utd (H) 0
Man Utd should draw at Liverpool (A) 0
Man City should beat Villa (H) 0
Chelsea should beat Everton (H) 0
Arsenal should beat Sunderland (H) 0
Spurs should beat Newcastle (A) -2

Aiming for the Top Four

LFC should lose against Man Utd (H) +1
Man Utd should lose at Liverpool (A) +1
Man City should draw against Villa (H) +2
Chelsea should draw against Everton (H) +2
Arsenal should beat Sunderland (H) 0
Spurs should draw at Newcastle (A) 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +4
Man City +2
Spurs -1
Liverpool -2
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -9

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +8
Man City +7
Spurs +4
Chelsea +4
Liverpool +2
Arsenal -4


Coming up next

Man Utd and Man City are the two sides who can gain points next week.  All the rest need to ensure victory to avoid slipping down the table.

Aiming for the Title

LFC should beat Norwich (H)
Man Utd should draw Man City (H)
Man City should lose at Man Utd (A)
Chelsea should beat QPR (A)
Arsenal should beat Stoke (H)
Spurs should beat Blackburn (A)

Aiming for the Top Four

LFC should beat Norwich (H)
Man Utd should lose against Man City (H)
Man City should lose at Man Utd (A)
Chelsea should beat QPR (A)
Arsenal should beat Stoke (H)
Spurs should beat Blackburn (A)

According to our rules in the opening post we are 2 points down on a title winning score and 2 points up on a top four finishing place.

I have looked ahead at the next 11 games for the rest of the year - taking us to the half way point in the season.

Predicted results for a title winning campaign

We need 26 points from our next 11 games (24 pts + an extra 2 to catch up) to be on course to win the league.

Norwich (H) Win
West Brom (A) Win
Swansea (H) Win
Chelsea (A) Lose
Man City (H) Draw
Fulham (A) Draw
QPR (H) Win
Villa (A) Draw
Wigan (A) Win
Blackburn (H) Win
Newcastle (H) Win

+ an extra 2 points from somewhere

Predicted results for a top four finish

We need 20 points from our next 11 games (22 pts - 2 we are already up) to be on course for a Champions League spot.

Norwich (H) Win
West Brom (A) Draw
Swansea (H) Win
Chelsea (A) Lose
Man City (H) Draw
Fulham (A) Draw
QPR (H) Win
Villa (A) Draw
Wigan (A) Win
Blackburn (H) Win
Newcastle (H) Win

+ can in theory drop two points

Updated 24th October 2011 (As it stands)

Worst result of the weekend for Chelsea, Liverpool close behind in dropping two points.  Man City had the best weekend with an unexpected three points and for the first time this season are now above United in title winning performance.

Aiming for the Title

LFC should beat Norwich (H) -2
Man Utd should draw Man City (H) -1
Man City should lose at Man Utd (A) +3
Chelsea should beat QPR (A) -3
Arsenal should beat Stoke (H) 0
Spurs should beat Blackburn (A) 0

Aiming for the Top Four

LFC should beat Norwich (H) -2
Man Utd should lose against Man City (H) 0
Man City should lose at Man Utd (A) +3
Chelsea should beat QPR (A) -3
Arsenal should beat Stoke (H) 0
Spurs should beat Blackburn (A) 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man City +5
Man Utd +3
Spurs -1
Liverpool -4
Chelsea -5
Arsenal -9

Performance challenging for the top four

Man City +10
Man Utd +8
Spurs +4
Chelsea +1
Liverpool 0
Arsenal -4


Coming up next

Opportunites for Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd to all gain points next week.  City and Spurs should both win. 

Aiming for the Title

Man Utd should draw at Everton (A)
Chelsea should draw against Arsenal (H)
Arsenal should lose at Chelsea (A)
Man City should beat Wolves (H)
Spurs should beat QPR (H)
Liverpool should beat WBA (A)

Aiming for top Four

Man Utd should lose at Everton (A)
Chelsea should draw against Arsenal (H)
Arsenal should lose at Chelsea (A)
Man City should beat Wolves (H)
Spurs should beat QPR (H)
Liverpool should draw at WBA (A)