League Season Analysis - 2011/12

Sorry for the off-topic, but this is one of the best threads I've seen on this forum . Yo're doing a hell of a job mate,thanks for keeping it up ! YNWA !

Cracking thread this, i'm not sure if anyone's picked up on this but  you have only got 18 games at home here, surely we have an allowance to lose one at home?

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 14 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Utd, City, Chelsea, Arsenal).
Win your 12 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (City, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, Fulham). Defeated at your hardest 2 (Utd, Chelsea)

Thanks for highlighting that error with regards to the title form.

I've corrected it.

Through some sheer fortune, it appears that as Villa and Man City haven't hosted any top sides the stats remain correct.

The one thread that gives us all hope. Nice one JD.

I'm posting this so we can look back at the end of the season and see how well we can predict at approximately a quarter through the season.

Predicted points (after 9 games - 8 for Spurs)

According to our graphs so far these are the predicted final point range for the 6 clubs we are following.

1. Man City (78 - 92 pts)
2. Man Utd (76 - 90 pts)
3. Spurs (72 - 86 pts)
4. Liverpool (68 - 83 pts)
    Chelsea (69 - 82 pts)
6. Arsenal (64 - 78 pts)

Maybe a bit bold but already we estimate that there is no chance of Arsenal finishing above Man City.

Am I misunderstanding this or does this say that we are less likely to finish in the top 4 than Chelsea, but more likely to win the league currently...?

Yes it does.

We have a 2 point wider range than Chelsea because of it.

It suggests that Chelsea are slightly more consistent than us, but we are more capable of pulling off unexpected results.

Great Thread.. Keep it up.

This thread will make for interesting reading after Spurs have played.  And not just concerning us either.

Updated 30th October 2011 (As it stands)

Worst result of the weekend for Chelsea (again). Good results for Arsenal, United and Liverpool.

Liverpool have now nudged ahead of Chelsea in both the top four and title tables.  Even though Man City have a 5 point lead at the top of the league, in terms of performance United and City are back level - indicating that United have had a much more difficult opening 10 games.

In fact, United are one point ahead of Man City in the 'top four table'.

Aiming for the Title

Man Utd should draw at Everton (A) +2
Chelsea should draw against Arsenal (H) -1
Arsenal should lose at Chelsea (A) +3
Man City should beat Wolves (H) 0
Spurs should beat QPR (H) 0
Liverpool should beat WBA (A) 0

Aiming for top Four

Man Utd should lose at Everton (A) +3
Chelsea should draw against Arsenal (H) -1
Arsenal should lose at Chelsea (A) +3
Man City should beat Wolves (H) 0
Spurs should beat QPR (H) 0
Liverpool should draw at WBA (A) +2

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man City +5
Man Utd +5
Spurs -1
Liverpool -4
Chelsea -6
Arsenal -6

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +4
Liverpool +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1






Coming up next

It's a banana skin weekend next time around.  Only Spurs can actually increase their points - the rest have to avoid dropping points.

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should beat West Brom (H)
Chelsea should beat Blackburn (A)
Liverpool should beat Swansea (H)
Man Utd should beat Sunderland (H)
Man City should beat QPR (A)
Tottenham should draw against Fulham (A)

Aiming for top Four

Arsenal should beat West Brom (H)
Chelsea should beat Blackburn (A)
Liverpool should beat Swansea (H)
Man Utd should beat Sunderland (H)
Man City should beat QPR (A)
Tottenham should draw against Fulham (A)

interesting reading JD lad

November 2011

All teams have only 3 Premier League games in November.  Relative difficulty of the games are as follows.  Liverpool have the toughest set of fixtures - closely followed by Spurs.  After some difficult games at the start of the season - United now have the easiest November.

These are the number of points the teams should pick up from the 9 points available according to title form.

Man Utd 9
Chelsea 9
Arsenal 9
Man City 7
Spurs 7
Liverpool 4

These are the number of points the teams should pick up from the 9 points available according to top four form.

Man Utd 9
Chelsea 7
Arsenal 7
Man City 6
Liverpool 4
Spurs 3

Predicted results for November (Title Form/Top Four form)

Man City

QPR (A) Win/Win
Newcastle (H) Win/Win
Liverpool (A) Draw/Lose

Man Utd

Sunderland (H) Win/Win
Swansea (A) Win/Win
Newcastle (H) Win/Win

Spurs

Fulham (A) Draw/Draw
Villa (H) Win/Draw
West Brom (A) Win/Draw

Liverpool

Swansea (H) Win/Win
Chelsea (A) Lose/Lose
Man City (H) Draw/Draw

Chelsea

Blackburn (A) Win/Win
Liverpool (H) Win/Draw
Wolves (H) Win/Win

Arsenal

West Brom (H) Win/Win
Norwich (A) Win/Win
Fulham (H) Win/Draw

The only time I ever looked forward to graphs and statistical analysis on a Monday.

Nice one JD.

I'm really  like this thread , thanks JD.

Newcastle - contenders?

A look at the league table shows a great points total so far by Newcastle.  After 10 games I thought it was only fair to include them in the analysis to see how well they are actually doing compared to the other clubs we follow.

Here are their results so far:

Arsenal home (Drew)
Sunderland away (Won)
Fulham home (Won)
QPR away (Drew)
Aston Villa away (Drew)
Blackburn home (Won)
Wolves away (Won)
Spurs home (Drew)
Wigan home (Won)
Stoke away (Won)

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal home - should draw 0
Sunderland away - should win 0
Fulham home - should win 0
QPR away - should win -2
Aston Villa away - should win -2
Blackburn home - should win 0
Wolves away - should win 0
Spurs home - should win -2
Wigan home - should win 0
Stoke away - should win 0

Total -6pts

As you can see, if we apply our same title rules to Newcastle they have had 9 games they should have won - the easiest fixtures of any of our teams.

Aiming for the Top Four

Arsenal home - should draw 0
Sunderland away - should draw +2
Fulham home - should draw +2
QPR away - should win -2
Aston Villa away - should draw 0
Blackburn home - should win 0
Wolves away - should win 0
Spurs home - should draw 0
Wigan home - should win 0
Stoke away - should win 0

Which leaves Newcastle with a very respectable +2, level with Liverpool in the chase for the top four.

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man City +5
Man Utd +5
Spurs -1
Liverpool -4
Chelsea -6
Arsenal -6
Newcastle -6

Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +4
Liverpool +2
Newcastle +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1

Newcastle's next 10 games will be a much harder test than they have had so far.  But for now, Liverpool need to keep up with Spurs, and not worry so much (yet) about Newcastle.

Thanks for including Newcastle in this analysis, as it seems only fair as they are now (unbelievably!) up to 3rd.

It is a most interesting thread, and thanks for all your hard work JD.

Updated 6th November 2011

I said it was going to be a banana skin weekend.  Sadly it was Liverpool who were the ones to slip this week.  Spurs was the best result of the weekend, closely foliowed by Newcastle.

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should beat West Brom (H) 0
Chelsea should beat Blackburn (A) 0
Liverpool should beat Swansea (H) -2
Man Utd should beat Sunderland (H) 0
Man City should beat QPR (A) 0
Tottenham should draw against Fulham (A) +2
Newcastle should beat Everton (H) 0

Aiming for top Four

Arsenal should beat West Brom (H) 0
Chelsea should beat Blackburn (A) 0
Liverpool should beat Swansea (H) -2
Man Utd should beat Sunderland (H) 0
Man City should beat QPR (A) 0
Tottenham should draw against Fulham (A) +2
Newcastle should draw against Everton (H) +2

Updated Tables (including Newcastle)

Performance challenging for the Title

Man City +5
Man Utd +5
Spurs +1
Liverpool -6
Chelsea -6
Arsenal -6
Newcastle -6



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +6
Newcastle +4
Liverpool 0
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1



Liverpool locked on the same level of performance with Chelsea in both tables.  Newcastle's win and Liverpool's draw now means the Geordies have moved 4 points clear of the reds in the race for the top four.

Up Next (w/end of 19th November)

Biggest opportunities in the next set of games are for Liverpool and Newcastle.

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should beat Norwich (A)
Man City should beat Newcastle (H)
Newcastle should lose against City (A)
Man Utd should beat Swansea (A)
Chelsea should beat Liverpool (H)
Liverpool should lose against Chelsea (A)
Tottenham should beat Villa (H)

Aiming for the Top Four

Arsenal should beat Norwich (A)
Man City should beat Newcastle (H)
Newcastle should lose against City (A)
Man Utd should beat Swansea (A)
Chelsea should draw against Liverpool (H)
Liverpool should lose against Chelsea (A)
Tottenham should draw against Villa (H)

This looks a very interesting thread, will follow closely in the coming weeks, just a pity about the damned International break.

Bump.

Big opportunity for Liverpool to get some points on our board this weekend.  Any point return at all would be an unexpected good result for the reds this weekend in our table.

Man Utd still the team with the best start in the league.  They need to match or better City's result to stay there.

I understand nothing but I'm impressed with your work, JD.

Performance challenging for the Title
Man City +5
Man Utd +5
Spurs +1
Liverpool -6
Chelsea -6
Arsenal -6
Newcastle -6

Performance challenging for the top four
Man Utd +11
Man City +10
Spurs +6
Newcastle +4
Liverpool 0
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1

Up Next (w/end of 19th November)

Biggest opportunities in the next set of games are for Liverpool and Newcastle.

Aiming for the Title

Arsenal should beat Norwich (A)
Man City should beat Newcastle (H)
Newcastle should lose against City (A)
Man Utd should beat Swansea (A)
Chelsea should beat Liverpool (H)
Liverpool should lose against Chelsea (A)
Tottenham should beat Villa (H)

Aiming for the Top Four

Arsenal should beat Norwich (A)
Man City should beat Newcastle (H)
Newcastle should lose against City (A)
Man Utd should beat Swansea (A)
Chelsea should draw against Liverpool (H)
Liverpool should lose against Chelsea (A)
Tottenham should draw against Villa (H)

Aiming for the Title
Man City +5   - no change
Man Utd +5    - no change
Spurs +1        - no result yet
Liverpool -6    - no result yet
Chelsea -6      - no result yet
Arsenal -6      - no change
Newcastle -6 - no change

Aiming for the Top Four
Man Utd +11      - no change
Man City +10     - no change
Spurs +6            - no result yet
Newcastle +4    - no change
Liverpool 0        - no result yet
Chelsea 0          - no result yet
Arsenal -1          - no change

We'll gain  point if we win or draw? 

We'll gain  point if we win or draw?

Correct.

We can't lose points this weekend - let's hope we gain 3 though.