Judgment in the Transfer Market

Only buy players who's name ends in a vowel ..... simple.

Ronaldo, Pele ,Messi, Zidane, Kaka, Baggio, Romario, Rivaldo, Figo, Ronaldinho (names that end in o seem pretty good )

 

A.K.A only buy latin players , HAHAHAHAHAHA

On topic, i think Liverpools transfer market policy has been below par. There are a number of reasond for that, but the main one is failure to judge a players potential.

I can see why we bought Downing, Henderson, Adam with the moneyball system all based around chances created. The difference with baseball and football being that there is much more interplay between players to create those chances than there is in generating positive statistics in baseball. So I think the method has been proven not so effective here and unfortunately it's a costly one, the real question is if we are going to abandon this method of scouting, I for one sincerely hope so.

"What is the "magic" formula for successful transfers?"

Sell Comolli 

Sell Comolli 

I second this. 80 million on Carrol, Henderson, Downing and Adam  FFS.

Sell Comolli

   Oh my sides.

We could do that and maybe 'buy' Carr from Newcastle. After all he found Cabaye, Tiote, Cisse, Ba and Ben Arfa. All players who were well enough known it would seem but none of which, barring Ben Arfa and Ba, we discussed on here and those two came with mixed reviews (especially Ben Arfa).

Can you imagine the outcry if we'd signed Ben Arfa or Cabaye when Mata 'was available'; Cisse instead of trying for Lavezzi and Tiote when 'we could have got Martinez'? I doubt any of Carr's signings (assuming Pardew has no say) would have been big enough names for many of us.

The fact remains; it's only with the benefit of hindsight that we know for sure if a player is a success or failure. Take Charlie Adam, for example, kelvo: he looked alright on paper didn't he? 

Can you imagine the outcry if we'd signed Ben Arfa or Cabaye when Mata 'was available'; Cisse instead of trying for Lavezzi and Tiote when 'we could have got Martinez'? I doubt any of Carr's signings (assuming Pardew has no say) would have been big enough names for many of us.

The fact remains; it's only with the benefit of hindsight that we know for sure if a player is a success or failure. Take Charlie Adam, for example, kelvo: he looked alright on paper didn't he? 

Thats the thing bang on Bub, unless world stars come through the door people wont be happy, then complain that we dont cast our scouting net wider and pick up bargains... I do hope that whatever is done this summer in the market which wont be Martinez or Hazard that people get behind them, let them settle and judge them after a fair amount of time.

There are plenty of good players out there which we need to buy and turn into better players, Alonso wasnt the polished diamond he is now when we picked him up from Sociedad, i really hope like everyone that Camolli is doing what he is paid for and picks up some cracking players from abroad that some of us havent heard of that turn out to be very good players..

Over to you Damien lad.

Sorry any players coming in would have being judged on performance. If we had signed tiote cabaye and Cisse even the most blind of person would have known they were good signings.

In relation to our signings Henderson Adam downing and Carroll have being shocking that is based on performance. Ya as people know i wasn't impressed with our work in the transfer market but if they performed like say Enrique id have being happy to say it.


Sadly Newcastle have being a lot more effective in the transfer market with less money

The likes of Ba, Cabaye and Tiote look like great signings now but agree with bad boy in that if we were linked with them last summer many would still not have wanted them as they weren't Aguero, Martinez or Mata.

Comolli, and Kenny have made as many successful signings as ones that haven't worked out yet and their judgement in the transfer market is about normal as far as I can see.

You think spending 78 million on Henderson Adam Carroll and downing is normal

also who cares if posters hadn't heard of them they would have seen after a couple of weeks they were good players.  Even a fool would see six million for them was excellent work by any club

I said on here Cisse would be a good signing for Newcastle.

You think spending 78 million on Henderson Adam Carroll and downing is normal

Our judgment in the transfer market is 'normal' in that we have made some great signings and some that may not work out. Many clubs have paid big money for players who look great signings and have had great seasons but don't work out.

On Carroll he was having a great season for Newcastle and I would imagine we weren't the only club looking at him and I'm not going to get into the fee as that has been done to death already.

also who cares if posters hadn't heard of them they would have seen after a couple of weeks they were good players.  Even a fool would see six million for them was excellent work by any club

As always you fail to read what is written and interpret it for yourself.

I said they 'look great signings now' and with the benefit of hindsight we can see Newcastle got a few bargains there but last summer they were not being talked about as potential signings for us, although racer did mention Tiote at one point, as most were looking for the likes of Mata, Martinez, Aguero.

You mentioned Cissé? Well done.

By the way I thought you were ignoring me

In my opinion I think this summer we will do things slightly differently.

I believe that last summer was a starting point, aimed mainly at removing as much deadwood as possible from the playing staff, which we achieved, to a degree. 

The players brought in were in line with the Moneyball/Sabermatics philosophy, that is, their stats from previous seasons showed they were in the top 10 for the posistions played, PL proven, not injury prone and some young enough to still develop.  Consideration was also taken into account that some Academy players development into the 1st team wouldn't suffer. 

In other words - they were "safe" options.

I think this summer will be about bringing some creative flair in to the squad, taking some risks and the introduction of more players from the Academy.

When members on here talk about the s**te players Kenny/Comolli bought, maybe in the long run it's proved the point that Moneyball/Sabermatics doesn't work well in Football.

Big wages & regular Champions League Football is how the agents & players decide where to go now. Maybe the signings Kenny brought in where just the best he could get. To compare the transfer market now to years gone by is ludicrous. We can compete for average or second choice players and that's what we got by the looks of things.

Until we get back into the CL it is going to be extremely hard to pick up world class players or potential world class talent ahead of Man U, City, Spurs, Arsenal plus the top teams in Europe.

We need CL football and then we can progress to trying to sign the players we actually want.

Big wages & regular Champions League Football is how the agents & players decide where to go now.

Over-simplification, but partly true. Take away the top 3 in each major European League, and i bet players will still prefer Liverpool to other options, even without CL football. Lets say Udinese, Napoli, Villareal, Sevilla, Malaga. Cant prove this of course, but i really think they will.

But given the choice between a top club with CL football, and Liverpool, I guess you are right. As for the players who choose wages over everything (Etoo et al), yes there are some, but not as many as you think ( I mean players who ONLY look at the wages and dont consider the clubs project. City had a project, for example)

Well mate the best thing to happen to this club in a very long time happened when we weren't in the Champions League - Kenny Dalglish reappointed as manager of this club.

I'm not denying being in the Champions League is good for the club, both on and off the field. What I am is denying is that fourth is a measuring stick for this club.

Winning trophies for me is a success, finishing fourth isn't.

That's about as simple as I can put it.

Is Right

Sell Comolli 

Do we need to sell him   Anyone know of any evidence of moneyball/sabermetrics working in football?  The evidence this season would suggest it's no better a system than the more 'traditional' way of scouting.  Some players step up, some don't.  Some take longer than others. 

And Martin Jol would probably agree!

Do we need to sell him   Anyone know of any evidence of moneyball/sabermetrics working in football?  The evidence this season would suggest it's no better a system than the more 'traditional' way of scouting.  Some players step up, some don't.  Some take longer than others. 

And Martin Jol would probably agree!

I think it's exactly the same as how things were done before, but it just got a fancy name and people suddenly think it's a new thing.

It is never a good thing when Liverpool aren't in the elite European competition. Its ridiculous to suggest other wise 

I think it's exactly the same as how things were done before, but it just got a fancy name and people suddenly think it's a new thing.

Have to disagree with this.  The owners definitely influenced the way Comolli and Dalglish's transfer dealings took place because of their success with sabermetrics in baseball.  However, baseball is a sport that is played one pitch at a time, and it can be broken down into how successful each player is in certain scenarios.  The difference is that baseball is all about repetition, while football is a flowing game.  To me, it is silly to reduce a football player down to numbers on a stat sheet.  A player like Andrea Pirlo, who can completely dictate the pace and tempo of a game, will never rate very highly on a stat sheet because he does not score many goals, create many direct assists, make many tackles, cover much ground, run very fast, etc.  Football has too many intangibles for the simplistic approach that sabermetrics uses for analyzing players.

Sell Comolli 

Or the alternate...

Whilst I wholeheartedly agree with you and i hate this "4th" place hoo ha, unfortunately football has changed a little and finishing in the top 4 is of paramount importance for the long term good of our great club.

HERE HERE

Have to disagree with this.  The owners definitely influenced the way Comolli and Dalglish's transfer dealings took place because of their success with sabermetrics in baseball.  However, baseball is a sport that is played one pitch at a time, and it can be broken down into how successful each player is in certain scenarios.  The difference is that baseball is all about repetition, while football is a flowing game.  To me, it is silly to reduce a football player down to numbers on a stat sheet.  A player like Andrea Pirlo, who can completely dictate the pace and tempo of a game, will never rate very highly on a stat sheet because he does not score many goals, create many direct assists, make many tackles, cover much ground, run very fast, etc.  Football has too many intangibles for the simplistic approach that sabermetrics uses for analyzing players.

I agree, moneyball as used in baseball was a new thing. The question is to what extend can it be implemented in football, I believe never fully. With younger players there is a complete lack of statistics also. And there will always be scouts who will just watch players, it's impossible to succesfully scout on just statistics right now. A combination of both is best I think, but that's quite normal in football right now. The only way to progress there is to get more extensive statistics, but even then you can never just rely on those. You're wrong about Pirlo though, he has a pass completion of 85-90% each game, that's similar to a player like Xavi. But I do agree with what you're trying to say, statistics are never full proof in football because there's so many different dynamics, players are so reliant on teammates too, but also on specific playing styles and formations etc.

There's a number of reasons why we were more successful in the transfer market in yesteryear.

Firstly, we signed players from lower league teams so the expectation wasn't as high as it is today. Ian Rush, when signed, wasn't expected to come in and win us the League single handedly whereas it appears that Andy Carroll is.

Secondly, we bought players based on what they were like as people as much as what they were like as players. I doubt we'd of bought somebody with Suarez' record of controversy back in our hay-day. Now that doesn't seem too important which is why we've had players with discipline problems like Ince, Diouf, Suarez, Bellamy (before he matured) among others.

Thirdly, we used to sign players and more often than not would have them sitting in our reserves for a year or two to learn the ways of the club before putting them into the pressure of first team football. Now, due to the ridiculous inflated transfer prices, players are thrown straight in and are expected to be world class players.

Fourthly, we were much more patient as fans and didn't jump down the throats of our players at the first sign of trouble.

Fifthly, we were much more successful as a team meaning new players could just slot into a winning side. It's much easier to play for a side that is winning than a side on decline.

OR we just bought a lot of overpriced british crap whereas before we bought prospective quality at reasonable  prices like newcastle have done this season.

Dress it up whatever way you want.. Newcastle are a better side than us this season and that is really hard to take. Theyve lost their 2 central defenders for the season without a blip. Agger/Lucas injured we're breaking records for losing streaks. Several of their players would break into our first 11 on form this season forgetting the big names we supposedly have since no CL football.

As for CL/PL. I'll repeat this till im blue in the face: If you are not in the top 4 you a) havent won the League (biggest prize) b) cant even compete for the second biggest prize.

That statement above is disregarding money,image,brand,marketing etc just from a success point of view there is nothing bigger than winning/competing for either of those 2 prizes. There is a massive drop in quality to the next prizes of even fa cup/uefa.

Top 4 is not a measuring stick.. its an absolute necessity for any team claiming to be a domestic or european power. We are 8th for a reason. I dont even think personally we have a squad that could get top 4 no matter who the manager is.

I'll be patient like most liverpool fans and give a full season and into next to rectify this situation but not all silverware is created equal. Im not happy beating other PL reserve teams/championship teams to win the league cup. Im much happier to be testing ourselves against domestic and european best as a true litmus test of how good we are.

OR we just bought a lot of overpriced british crap whereas before we bought prospective quality at reasonable  prices like newcastle have done this season.

Dress it up whatever way you want.. Newcastle are a better side than us this season and that is really hard to take. Theyve lost their 2 central defenders for the season without a blip. Agger/Lucas injured we're breaking records for losing streaks. Several of their players would break into our first 11 on form this season forgetting the big names we supposedly have since no CL football.

As for CL/PL. I'll repeat this till im blue in the face: If you are not in the top 4 you a) havent won the League (biggest prize) b) cant even compete for the second biggest prize.

That statement above is disregarding money,image,brand,marketing etc just from a success point of view there is nothing bigger than winning/competing for either of those 2 prizes. There is a massive drop in quality to the next prizes of even fa cup/uefa.

Top 4 is not a measuring stick.. its an absolute necessity for any team claiming to be a domestic or european power. We are 8th for a reason. I dont even think personally we have a squad that could get top 4 no matter who the manager is.

I'll be patient like most liverpool fans and give a full season and into next to rectify this situation but not all silverware is created equal. Im not happy beating other PL reserve teams/championship teams to win the league cup. Im much happier to be testing ourselves against domestic and european best as a true litmus test of how good we are.

Good points well made leeboy. You've definitely given me food for thought.