Judgment in the Transfer Market

OR we just bought a lot of overpriced british crap whereas before we bought prospective quality at reasonable  prices like newcastle have done this season.

Or we've overspent on foreign just as much as British players. It's not exclusively British players who haven't been good enough for this club.

Dress it up whatever way you want.. Newcastle are a better side than us this season and that is really hard to take. Theyve lost their 2 central defenders for the season without a blip. Agger/Lucas injured we're breaking records for losing streaks. Several of their players would break into our first 11 on form this season forgetting the big names we supposedly have since no CL football.

Yes a few would get into our side, some of ours would get into their side. And as good as Newcastle have been this season, they will have nothing to show for it. We will. I'd rather be us right now.

As for CL/PL. I'll repeat this till im blue in the face: If you are not in the top 4 you a) havent won the League (biggest prize) b) cant even compete for the second biggest prize.

If you're not in the top four you have failed to do what you set out at the start of the season - win the League. You have also failed to do that if you come second, third or fourth. If we don't win the League, then we've failed as far as I'm concerned.

That statement above is disregarding money,image,brand,marketing etc just from a success point of view there is nothing bigger than winning/competing for either of those 2 prizes. There is a massive drop in quality to the next prizes of even fa cup/uefa.

No winning the FA Cup, League Cup, Europa League or any other cup competition is bigger than just competing in the Champions League.

Top 4 is not a measuring stick.. its an absolute necessity for any team claiming to be a domestic or european power. We are 8th for a reason. I dont even think personally we have a squad that could get top 4 no matter who the manager is.

No top four is not an absolute necessity to be a domestic or European power house. I don't class Man City as a European power despite them finishing in the top four for the last two years (last and this). You might, I don't.

And I do believe we have a squad capable of finishing in the top four, we've proven that by twatting every side in the League at some point this year. We've lacked consistency and that slice of luck that's required. We're not as far away as people think.

I'll be patient like most liverpool fans and give a full season and into next to rectify this situation but not all silverware is created equal. Im not happy beating other PL reserve teams/championship teams to win the league cup. Im much happier to be testing ourselves against domestic and european best as a true litmus test of how good we are.

Well to win the League Cup we had to beat Chelsea and City. To win the FA Cup we will have to have beaten United, Everton, Chelsea/Spurs. So we have had to face the domestic best. None of those teams were under-par either. It's not been handed to us, we've had to earn our trophy and will have to earn the FA Cup as well.

But if you're happier getting nothing from European games to actually winning trophies then fair enough.

Well said Billy lad, great post

Simple fact is we bought poorly, overpaying for average british players has being a massive mistake.

Even more simple.. we bought a selection of players to compliment Andy Carroll, now hes not even playing and they are basically useless as our alternative is pass/move which none of those players are competent enough to perform.

We need another total rebuild imo

What judgement ?   ...it seems.

If you're not in the top four you have failed to do what you set out at the start of the season - win the League. You have also failed to do that if you come second, third or fourth. If we don't win the League, then we've failed as far as I'm concerned.

The season hasnt even finished and we have already failed by a marker of 34 (yes thirty four ) points off the top as of today 7/4/12

We bought second rate players from second rate teams, no wonder they are crap.

Something is just wrong with our club ...

I understand some players we have bought over the years may not be top quality but that's when you compare them to the players Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs, Man United or Man City has.

The players we have SHOULD be better than the players Wolves, Wigan, Blackburn, Bolton or Sunderland put out and yet we still fail to beat them. Even Cardiff City almost beat us so that means our players are just so terrible!!

In an attempt to bring this back on topic: 

... And, as you know, there's the rub Scott. There really is no "magic" formula; no recipe for success.

Forget Kenny/Comolli/Liverpool and insert any manager/scout/team you want - they all do or try to do the same thing. None of them go out to buy a player that they know will fail - to suggest otherwise would be daft. Some may be better than others but none of them get it right every time.

For every Torres there's a Keane or a Morientes; for every Aurelio there's a Degen or a Dossena; for every Drogba there's a Shevchenko or a Wright-Phillips and for every Rooney there's a Veron or a Forlan... I could go on but you get my drift.

Spending big money on big names doesn't always work and therefore ain't the answer. Buying either 'British' or 'Foreign' doesn't bring any guarantee of success and therefore ain't the answer either. 

I'm going to state the obvious now... There's no "magic" formula... and 'we' all know it.

Debating the success, or failure, of signings is something different and can be done in player threads. So whilst it may be very popular to have a dig at transfer 'policy' and play to the gallery; stating the obvious "we need to do better" brings nothing of substance to the table in all reality.

Hands up who knows we need to do better. Now hands up who actually knows how to do it.

What a strange post.

There can obviously be no "magic formula" for success in the transfer market because football isn't an exact science that allows us to predict with absolute certainty how players or teams are going to perform -- hence the accurately titled thread "Judgment in the Transfer Market". But that doesn't mean it isn't possible to outline the factors that are important to consider in making a sound judgment. It's not an exact science, but neither is it a complete lottery.

So, we can say to begin with that regardless of individual talent, any new signing should complement the team and correspond with the vision of the manager. Hence, the post you quoted referenced Andy Carroll and the problem of trying to play him in a side that aspires to play in a more intricate style of play than suits him.

Once that's been established, then it's a question of identifying the qualities required of a player to play in the role identified by the manager. A winger might need to be proficient at crossing the ball, he may need pace to get in behind defenders, he may need good close-control to make good use of the ball when drifting into tight areas, he may need to be a strong goal threat, have a high work-ethic and good defensive awareness etc.. These are all qualities that if we can't necessarily quantify, then we can certainly judge and if we do so with a critical eye, we ought to be able to improve our success rate in the transfer market.

I don't think it's about the judgement to be honest. When we signed these players from their former clubs they were impressive but, they haven't done that here. I think it's more about the signings not performing for us than them being sh*te.

What a strange post.

 

Strange? Really? What's strange about a post which brings a thread back on topic mate?

Whilst the thread title is "Judgment in the Transfer Market" the original poster sets the tone for debate when his post ends with the suggestion: "Until we regain our magic touch in the transfer market, I fear we'll continue to struggle."

I, in turn, answered that by pointing out that there is no "magic touch"... you STRANGELY enough agree with me...

There can obviously be no "magic formula" for success in the transfer market because football isn't an exact science that allows us to predict with absolute certainty how players or teams are going to perform -- hence the accurately titled thread "Judgment in the Transfer Market".

I'm guessing that whilst you read the thread title you didn't read the O.P. which actually set the tone. It's easy done mate; it happens all the time. 

The magic formula is having the right people in the right positions, as far as scouting and transfer policy goes.

Strange? Really? What's strange about a post which brings a thread back on topic mate?

Whilst the thread title is "Judgment in the Transfer Market" the original poster sets the tone for debate when his post ends with the suggestion: "Until we regain our magic touch in the transfer market, I fear we'll continue to struggle."

I, in turn, answered that by pointing out that there is no "magic touch"... you STRANGELY enough agree with me...

I'm guessing that whilst you read the thread title you didn't read the O.P. which actually set the tone. It's easy done mate; it happens all the time. 

Au contraire.

There is no mention in the OP of any "magic formula", any perfect methodology, any manual for success when it comes to transfers, nor any allusion to such a thing. All it does is contrast our recent transfer record with that of the 70s and 80s and points out that Newcastle have done cost-effective business recently when compared to ours. A fair enough to point make, and worth discussing the reasons why given the importance of signing the right players.

Then, at the end, it says that until we regain our "magic touch" we will continue to struggle, which is simply a turn of phrase that can be substituted with "talent for spotting players". No "formulas" in sight and no sensible interpretation of the OP that could ever lead you to think that it suggested such a thing. Rather, it's made abundantly clear in the thread title that it is a question of "Judgment", which of course it is. It is not some exact science that enables you to predict with certainty which players will or won't perform. It's a question of watching players play over a sustained period of time and assessing their abilities relative to other players and the vision of the manager who is seeking new players.

You, though, came in and dismissed the topic as pointless on the basis of the strange assumption that there was no "magic formula", no sure way of getting transfers right (as though this was ever up for debate), had a go at the OP for "playing to the gallery" (another strange comment), and, in short, started talking complete b0llocks.

Au contraire.

There is no mention in the OP of any "magic formula", any perfect methodology, any manual for success when it comes to transfers, nor any allusion to such a thing. All it does is contrast our recent transfer record with that of the 70s and 80s and points out that Newcastle have done cost-effective business recently when compared to ours. A fair enough to point make, and worth discussing the reasons why given the importance of signing the right players.

Then, at the end, it says that until we regain our "magic touch" we will continue to struggle, which is simply a turn of phrase that can be substituted with "talent for spotting players". No "formulas" in sight and no sensible interpretation of the OP that could ever lead you to think that it suggested such a thing. Rather, it's made abundantly clear in the thread title that it is a question of "Judgment", which of course it is. It is not some exact science that enables you to predict with certainty which players will or won't perform. It's a question of watching players play over a sustained period of time and assessing their abilities relative to other players and the vision of the manager who is seeking new players.

You, though, came in and dismissed the topic as pointless on the basis of the strange assumption that there was no "magic formula", no sure way of getting transfers right (as though this was ever up for debate), had a go at the OP for "playing to the gallery" (another strange comment), and, in short, started talking complete b0llocks.

That's me told off and rightly so . I stand corrected and contrite. I hope you will forgive me for dismissing your opening post thanks2shanks and anyone else I may have insulted - I got it way wrong. 

The fact is; we will indeed continue to struggle until we can regain that magic touch in the transfer market; whatever that may be.

* Whimpers out of thread with tail firmly between his legs. 

Comolli crap .......

   

AK: Liverpool failed to do any business in the January window, why was this?

    DC: We didn't fail to do business.
    It's a question of opportunities.
    There is no point in doing transfers for the sake of doing a transfer.

It has to be relevant for the team and bring us an improvement.

There were no opportunities to do so in January ............ so we decided not to do anything.

Bitters and Newcastle did. One scorer has scored six goals and the other nine goals.

So not having  striker who can score more than 8 f***ing goals (Suarez) didn't need improving !!!???
A pathetic   37  !   goal tally .

Who were our  "targets "

We were crying out for wingers with pace and a lethal 20 a season striker from last Autumn.

Spurs have four strikers in the PL top 20     striker list.

Adebayor  13
Van Der Vaart 9
Defoe 9
Bale 9

40 goals between the four.


We havent even got four strikers.!

Our top     strikers are Suarez on 8 and Free Bellamy on 6.

Interesting train of though is that we don't have a seasoned experienced negotiator in situ when it comes to transfers. The presumption is that it is Comolli who does a lot of the negotiating. However this was never his remit at Spurs (Leevy) - it perhaps was at St Etienne? but if so obviously on a much smaller scale. As a result in our transfer negotiations since Fenway arrived we have I think been seen as an easy touch and been taken advantage of
Can you imagine a Comolli figure (who I am not demonising - not his fault he has been given a particular job to do) or Ayre (a good guy seems to be but again inexperienced) running Man Utd? - not in this lifetime

For me the most important signing of the summer should be a top-level experienced administrator to run the club and let KD and Comolli concentrate on what they are experienced in
I am frankly amazed that 18 months down the line I am writing such a statement - Henry and co need to get it together

Interesting train of though is that we don't have a seasoned experienced negotiator in situ when it comes to transfers. The presumption is that it is Comolli who does a lot of the negotiating. However this was never his remit at Spurs (Leevy) - it perhaps was at St Etienne? but if so obviously on a much smaller scale. As a result in our transfer negotiations since Fenway arrived we have I think been seen as an easy touch and been taken advantage of
Can you imagine a Comolli figure (who I am not demonising - not his fault he has been given a particular job to do) or Ayre (a good guy seems to be but again inexperienced) running Man Utd? - not in this lifetime

For me the most important signing of the summer should be a top-level experienced administrator to run the club and let KD and Comolli concentrate on what they are experienced in
I am frankly amazed that 18 months down the line I am writing such a statement - Henry and co need to get it together

Can't disagree with this statement. Is Purslow still available ?

Do we need to sell him   Anyone know of any evidence of moneyball/sabermetrics working in football? 

Rafa