Perspective on any hopes of Champions League qualification from this point on

MODS: Feel free to merge this if you think it shouldn't be a topic on its own.

I've been doing some maths, which people can be check if they like I did this in a bit of a rush. And I think it's necessary to post this to put across this kind of realism about the rest of this season.

As it currently stands we have two different, and pretty opposing, ways of viewing the season so far and how the rest of our league campaign will unfold. It is my personal view that we won't qualify for the Champions League and probably not the UEFA Cup either. But some on here are pointing out that we aren't that far away from fourth and we have plenty of games left to play and therefore we should be optimistic we can still get Champions League football this season.

I think this is an attitude that will only serve to put pressure on manager who, for numerous reasons, won't be able to meet that kind of expectation... especially not after this start. So stick with my here; and feel free to correct any errors I've made if there are any.. but overall I think the point will stand.

Since 2001-02 season, the first year four teams could qualify for Champions League football in England, the average points required to obtain fourth place is 68 points. Which is, rounded up, is 60% of all the points available. To put that into perspective the amount need to win the league on average is 88 points. And that is 77% of the total points.

We are currently on 11 points from a possible 30, which is 37%. If we continue this over the course of a season we'll barely  get over the magical 40 point mark which is associated with avoiding relegation, with just 42 points. It is worth pointing out we have played well enough in our first 11 games to know we'll probably not be looking at relegation battle come the run in. But that is what we are currently on course for.

So in order for us to hit the average amount needed for Champions League qualification we'll need gaining points at a rate of 68%. Only 9% off average title winning form... for the next 28 games...

To if we scored at 68% over a whole season we'd get 77 points, a total which we've only managed three times in the previous eleven seasons. And in all of those seasons it is fair to say the relative strength of our squad and manager were considerably better than what we have currently. In two of those three seasons we had Benitez and the Top Four was a fixed group, whereas now we have Newcastle, Everton, Spurs and Arsenal looking to take that final Champions League place too. Unless we hit spectacularly good form between now and May, a possibility I'm aiming to show is extremely unlikely, then we won't be getting Champions League football. It is just my personal view that people should accept that now, this start to the season has made the Top Four unrealistic.

In the summer I thought there was an outside chance we could finish fourth and get back into the Champions League despite the challenges Rodgers would be facing. But I think the end of the transfer window and our poor, in terms of points, start has ruled that out.

Unless we sign some brilliant players in January and go on essentially title winning form there is no way we'll be playing Tuesday and Wednesday night's under the lights at Anfield till at least two seasons time. But even that would require our spectacularly good form to start immediately and for the points total to achieve CL football to remain the average of 68 points. The highest total in the past eleven seasons was 76 points and that came at 67%... which is almost exactly the rate at which we need to gain points to equal the eleven season average

My point isn't that we should have no hope at all, far from it. But it should be tempered by a heavy dose of reality. I'd love nothing more than to play European football next season but I think that even Europa League qualification is going to require a good points return from this point onwards.

The lowering of expectations in general is not something that I want to get into, the rights and wrongs of the theory FSG are trying to lower our expectations in general aren't what I want to get at. I just don't think it's fair to talk about Champions League qualification for this point onwards and to add to the kind of disappointed fan pressure we saw that forced Rafa out.

At the end of the day where we finish is dependent upon our ability to score between now and Jan, our ability to get one or more strikers in the Jan transfer window, those strikers scoring regularly during the second half of the season and the rest of the leagues results. The league is so tight at this point that by the end of the month we could be in the top 4 or the bottom 4. What we need to do is not go deathly silent the moment the opposition scores because if we can't keep our heads up and our voices strong than how can we expect the players on the field to show the mental reliance needed to come back from a goal down. We, the fans, are the 12th man. It's time we started acting like it.

Good post ks67. If we are been honest we know its highly unlikely. Think we will finish 8th maybe 9th myself.

That may change though if say Suarez gets injured or fsg break the bank in January

Good post ks67. If we are been honest we know its highly unlikely. Think we will finish 8th maybe 9th myself.

That may change though if say Suarez gets injured or fsg break the bank in January

Seeing as we are talking about reality I have to ask you ...

What the hell kind of striker would join a relegation battle mid season ?

Either another unproven nobody from abroad or a Premier League experienced player either not good enough to play for the club in even average circumstances or an experienced Premier League player with no ambition of winning anything because if he had ambitions of winning something he wouldnt be joining a club struggling to maintain a 2 point lead over the 4'th bottom club .

What are you expecting ?

Some top class player from abroad or some Premier League superstar ?

Forget it !

Expect average players like a Borini or a Joe Allen & dont be expecting them to do anything more than chip in every now & again with a half decent "Promising" performance as our genius manager continues to try to reinvent the wheel & convince us all it was actually him who discovered that water is wet & that fire is hot .

I suggest you strap yerself in tight because we are in for a dogfight between now & May & as soon as a whole lot of people realize their mistake & remove the rose tinted glasses then we can address the situation , the circumstances & attempt to move the club forward after the awful backward step it took in the summer .

 

 While it is a big challenge,rightly or wrongly I do not believe in throwing the towel in till it is  mathamatically impossible.It is difficult with the miserable start we have had to this season but hopefully we can string a few wins together to get us through to January and the transfer window.I only hope the owners read LFCREDS and take heed of what our supporters are asking for.

MODS: Feel free to merge this if you think it shouldn't be a topic on its own.

I've been doing some maths, which people can be check if they like I did this in a bit of a rush. And I think it's necessary to post this to put across this kind of realism about the rest of this season.

As it currently stands we have two different, and pretty opposing, ways of viewing the season so far and how the rest of our league campaign will unfold. It is my personal view that we won't qualify for the Champions League and probably not the UEFA Cup either. But some on here are pointing out that we aren't that far away from fourth and we have plenty of games left to play and therefore we should be optimistic we can still get Champions League football this season.

I think this is an attitude that will only serve to put pressure on manager who, for numerous reasons, won't be able to meet that kind of expectation... especially not after this start. So stick with my here; and feel free to correct any errors I've made if there are any.. but overall I think the point will stand.

Since 2001-02 season, the first year four teams could qualify for Champions League football in England, the average points required to obtain fourth place is 68 points. Which is, rounded up, is 60% of all the points available. To put that into perspective the amount need to win the league on average is 88 points. And that is 77% of the total points.

We are currently on 11 points from a possible 30, which is 37%. If we continue this over the course of a season we'll barely  get over the magical 40 point mark which is associated with avoiding relegation, with just 42 points. It is worth pointing out we have played well enough in our first 11 games to know we'll probably not be looking at relegation battle come the run in. But that is what we are currently on course for.

So in order for us to hit the average amount needed for Champions League qualification we'll need gaining points at a rate of 68%. Only 9% off average title winning form... for the next 28 games...

To if we scored at 68% over a whole season we'd get 77 points, a total which we've only managed three times in the previous eleven seasons. And in all of those seasons it is fair to say the relative strength of our squad and manager were considerably better than what we have currently. In two of those three seasons we had Benitez and the Top Four was a fixed group, whereas now we have Newcastle, Everton, Spurs and Arsenal looking to take that final Champions League place too. Unless we hit spectacularly good form between now and May, a possibility I'm aiming to show is extremely unlikely, then we won't be getting Champions League football. It is just my personal view that people should accept that now, this start to the season has made the Top Four unrealistic.

In the summer I thought there was an outside chance we could finish fourth and get back into the Champions League despite the challenges Rodgers would be facing. But I think the end of the transfer window and our poor, in terms of points, start has ruled that out.

Unless we sign some brilliant players in January and go on essentially title winning form there is no way we'll be playing Tuesday and Wednesday night's under the lights at Anfield till at least two seasons time. But even that would require our spectacularly good form to start immediately and for the points total to achieve CL football to remain the average of 68 points. The highest total in the past eleven seasons was 76 points and that came at 67%... which is almost exactly the rate at which we need to gain points to equal the eleven season average

My point isn't that we should have no hope at all, far from it. But it should be tempered by a heavy dose of reality. I'd love nothing more than to play European football next season but I think that even Europa League qualification is going to require a good points return from this point onwards.

The lowering of expectations in general is not something that I want to get into, the rights and wrongs of the theory FSG are trying to lower our expectations in general aren't what I want to get at. I just don't think it's fair to talk about Champions League qualification for this point onwards and to add to the kind of disappointed fan pressure we saw that forced Rafa out.

It wasnt fan pressure that forced Rafa out , it was Rafas ego that forced himself out , same as it forced him out of Inter .

Its one of his political tactics to establish himself as the fans hero working for them against the "evil boardroom" , Inter wouldnt tolerate his bullsh*t but he got away with it at Anfield because he struck gold in his 1'st season at Anfield when Gerrard won him the Champions League practically single handed & lets not forget that he dropped a team that regularly qualified for the Champions League out of the top 4 & finished 37 points of the top but he also got to 2 out of 3 cup finals & won one of them .

Dalglish in his 1'st season got to two out of 2 cup finals & won one  , finished 37 points off the top using a squad threatened with relegation & in the process of being rebuilt not a squad who had been regularly qualifying for the Champions League .

Rafas ego also allowed him to try to beat Fergie at his own game & let the press make a complete monkey outa him for it  .

Nobody respected him after that , not even the relegation threatened clubs .

Rafa lost the dressing room he himself assembled .

They dropped from 2'nd to 7'th in one season & then dropped into the relegation zone the following season .

The club almost recovered from it by the end of last season but then we went & sacked the man who was resurrecting us & here we are back in relegation trouble , surprise surprise !

Your post was pragmatic & commendable up until you let slip your foolish notions about Rafa so I felt the need to state the facts .

We should add a proven right winger or add a proven goal scorer and play suarez through right. Suso is showing some moments of brilliance.Apart from that our main attacking threats are only suarez and sterling,imagine if we have someone tricky through right. Maybe assaidi will be an answer to that.
BR should be more ruthless i think,he never subbing off gerrard even if he perfoms bad,he keeps playing sahin in advanced role and gerrard deep when it is very clear from the number of games they played there. He is playing allen no matter what.I would like to see hendo coming for allen if he is struggling,which is the case with last 2 or 3 games.

Last season,swansea's game went through sigurdsson and he scored a lot. BR's tactic demands a goal scoring advanced mid fielder. May be in january he will add someone like that. Or he starts to play gerrard there. I still have hopes for top 6 finish.Not expecting CL to be honest as we don't have the squad depth for it. We will be the only team in PL playing without a striker on the bench.

I could say I'm tired of the 'shoulda, woulda, coulda' regarding the last window. Been done to death by us all. We didn't. End of.

But the fact is that is costing us now and costing us dearly.

Our fixture list up until the next transfer window reads okay and if we can take 23 points from them we will still be in a position where we can be there or thereabouts providing we spend in January. Easier said than done though.

If we don't do something like this, forget it:

November 2012
11 Nov 2012    Chelsea  A 16:00  = 0 points         
17 Nov 2012    Wigan  H 15:00           = 3 points
           
25 Nov 2012    Swansea  A 13:30 = 3 points           
28 Nov 2012    Tottenham  A 20:00     = 1 point     
 
December 2012
1 Dec 2012    Southampton  H 15:00      = 3 points   
         
9 Dec 2012    West Ham  A 16:00    = 3 points       
15 Dec 2012    Aston Villa  H 15:00  = 3 points
22 Dec 2012    Fulham  H 17:30             = 3 points
26 Dec 2012    Stoke City  A 19:45  = 1 point         
30 Dec 2012    QPR  A 16:00 = 3 points

That return would put us on 34 points after 20 games - exactly the same as last year and one point ahead of where Newcastle where at the same point. They kicked on after making an astute signing in January, we didn't and stagnated.

If we can find some form quick smart and get a decent run going and then make a couple of astute signings in January who knows? We've got Lucas to return who could make a difference also.

I'm not writing us off just yet.

I could say I'm tired of the 'shoulda, woulda, coulda' regarding the last window. Been done to death by us all. We didn't. End of.

But the fact is that is costing us now and costing us dearly.

Our fixture list up until the next transfer window reads okay and if we can take 23 points from them we will still be in a position where we can be there or thereabouts providing we spend in January. Easier said than done though.

If we don't do something like this, forget it:

November 2012
11 Nov 2012    Chelsea  A 16:00  = 0 points         
17 Nov 2012    Wigan  H 15:00           = 3 points
           
25 Nov 2012    Swansea  A 13:30 = 3 points           
28 Nov 2012    Tottenham  A 20:00     = 1 point     
 
December 2012
1 Dec 2012    Southampton  H 15:00      = 3 points   
         
9 Dec 2012    West Ham  A 16:00    = 3 points       
15 Dec 2012    Aston Villa  H 15:00  = 3 points
22 Dec 2012    Fulham  H 17:30             = 3 points
26 Dec 2012    Stoke City  A 19:45  = 1 point         
30 Dec 2012    QPR  A 16:00 = 3 points

That return would put us on 34 points after 20 games - exactly the same as last year and one point ahead of where Newcastle where at the same point. They kicked on after making an astute signing in January, we didn't and stagnated.

If we can find some form quick smart and get a decent run going and then make a couple of astute signings in January who knows? We've got Lucas to return who could make a difference also.

I'm not writing us off just yet.

I love  and admire the optimisim

4 home wins in a row? Wigan who we havent beaten for 2 seasons home or away
A win at Swansea after they took the piss the other night?

23 points from 30 - just where does the belief come from- have you not been watching us?

If we are in touching distance in Jan which we should be add some quality additions then yes we can do it.

Rafas ego also allowed him to try to beat Fergie at his own game & let the press make a complete monkey outa him for it  .

Nobody respected him after that , not even the relegation threatened clubs .

Sorry to respond to you WUM, bit on this one point, what about Rafa's presser was inaccurate about Mr Ferguson or Man United?

We have no chance in my opinion of being anywhere near it


Just an honest opinion.. Others will probably disagree but I just don't see us anywhere near it

Sorry to respond to you WUM, bit on this one point, what about Rafa's presser was inaccurate about Mr Ferguson or Man United?

Firstly my nme is not WUM no more than yours is DUMB .

Secondly , you arent responding to me seeing as I never mentioned you or quoted you .

Thirdly & finally on to your question ...

I never mentioned the content of any of Benitez's press conferences , I mentioned that his ego seen him attempt to play Fergie at "Mind Games " in the press , it blew up in his face , the press made a monkey outa him because of it , every club in the league treated us as a joke for it over the next season & a half & he lost the dressing room he assembled .

You obviously have some kind of problem digesting those facts so allow me to break it down even further for you ...

In his glorious record breaking league season did we ever even get within 9 points of Utd unless they had games in hand on us ?

We didnt close the gap until after they had secured the title , put their feet up & relaxed .

We done nothing under Benitez .

We at best were nearly men .

He slipped on a banana skin fell into tha Mersey & came out dry with a FA & Champions League in his pockets .

Dumb luck like that isnt called skill , its called inheriting a one man army entering his prime years & his name is Steven Gerrard .

Benitez rode along on the shirt tails of his match winning skill , nothing more & nothing less .

It wasnt fan pressure that forced Rafa out , it was Rafas ego that forced himself out , same as it forced him out of Inter .

Your post was pragmatic & commendable up until you let slip your foolish notions about Rafa so I felt the need to state the facts .

I call bull sh*t if you want to state facts.

Then what forced Rafa out was Ayre, Purslow and Broughton taking Rafa out the equation as he had too much control and appointing a puppet in Roy Hodgson to make the club a more attractive proposition for potential buyers.

Onto the topic at hand, depends where we are in the league in January and who we purchase, say were in touching distance of top 4 and we sign a striker that pops in 15 goals for us, that could leap frog us up the table.

All the teams above us are dropping points with the exception of Chavski and United so it may be claimed with a lower than average points tally.

I call bull sh*t if you want to state facts.

Then what forced Rafa out was Ayre, Purslow and Broughton taking Rafa out the equation as he had too much control and appointing a puppet in Roy Hodgson to make the club a more attractive proposition for potential buyers.

Onto the topic at hand, depends where we are in the league in January and who we purchase, say were in touching distance of top 4 and we sign a striker that pops in 15 goals for us, that could leap frog us up the table.

All the teams above us are dropping points with the exception of Chavski and United so it may be claimed with a lower than average points tally.

In only 2 seasons out of the 6 Benitez was in charge did we win trophy's .

In 2 of those 6 seasons he dropped a team the was regularly qualifying for the Champions League out of the top 4 .

If it wasnt for Gerrard he woulda been sacked in 08 when the owners made it public knowledge they wanted Klinsman to replace him .

At best Benitez was average .

If we gave Hodgson as much time & money he woulda done no worse .

Evertonians called him Max , because of Peter Kays "Max & Paddy" & Geordies called him the fat Spanish Waiter or Manuel from "Fawlty Towers" .

Benitez was & is a joke especially after confirming his disastrous limitations at Inter .

I love  and admire the optimisim

4 home wins in a row? Wigan who we havent beaten for 2 seasons home or away
A win at Swansea after they took the piss the other night?

23 points from 30 - just where does the belief come from- have you not been watching us?

Do us a little favour and read the 3rd paragarph then come back. Haven't said we will have I.

Use of the word 'if' and the phrase 'easier said than done' will tell you that.

It wasnt fan pressure that forced Rafa out , it was Rafas ego that forced himself out , same as it forced him out of Inter .

Its one of his political tactics to establish himself as the fans hero working for them against the "evil boardroom" , Inter wouldnt tolerate his bullsh*t but he got away with it at Anfield because he struck gold in his 1'st season at Anfield when Gerrard won him the Champions League practically single handed & lets not forget that he dropped a team that regularly qualified for the Champions League out of the top 4 & finished 37 points of the top but he also got to 2 out of 3 cup finals & won one of them .

Dalglish in his 1'st season got to two out of 2 cup finals & won one  , finished 37 points off the top using a squad threatened with relegation & in the process of being rebuilt not a squad who had been regularly qualifying for the Champions League .

Rafas ego also allowed him to try to beat Fergie at his own game & let the press make a complete monkey outa him for it  .

Nobody respected him after that , not even the relegation threatened clubs .

Rafa lost the dressing room he himself assembled .

They dropped from 2'nd to 7'th in one season & then dropped into the relegation zone the following season .

The club almost recovered from it by the end of last season but then we went & sacked the man who was resurrecting us & here we are back in relegation trouble , surprise surprise !

Your post was pragmatic & commendable up until you let slip your foolish notions about Rafa so I felt the need to state the facts .

Andn you can just fade the F**k away.

What the hell kind of striker would join a relegation battle mid season ?

What are you expecting ?

Some top class player from abroad or some Premier League superstar ?

I don't want a forward who is watching his lotto winning bank balance rise week after week I want a centre forward who gets stuck in and can smash the back of the net..It might be we pluck someone from the lower divisions who would be "honoured" to play for Liverpool Football Club and pull on the number 9 or number 10 jersey , not some foreign player who has had a "good" spell in the bundesleague or somewhere similar...His wages shouldn't matter , besides offload Joke ol and Downing and there's £160K a week to play with.
There MUST be an John Aldridge out there somewhere begging for the chance to play alongside Luis and make a name for himself??
Goals breeds confidence and confidence gets you 3 points and through to the next round and points get you up the table..
Whatever we do or whoever we buy in January it has to be early in the month and not at 10:55pm on the 31st !!

Whatever we do or whoever we buy in January it has to be early in the month and not at 10:55pm on the 31st !!

Without a doubt 'stringer... yet another lesson that will have been learned by then, I'd like to assume.

If we can agree (and most of us seem to) that "all we are missing is a striker or two" and... "we will struggle 'til we sign them" then it has to be important that whoever signs does so in time for the four January games.

I think the other results from the weekend allow a glimmer of hope. If we can keep the gap to within 6 points until January and get in some strikers I think the other clubs will drop points (Spurs Everton Arsenal) I think utd city and Chelsea will probably pull away

But I defo wouldnt give up on 4th yet

It wasnt fan pressure that forced Rafa out , it was Rafas ego that forced himself out , same as it forced him out of Inter .

Its one of his political tactics to establish himself as the fans hero working for them against the "evil boardroom" , Inter wouldnt tolerate his bullsh*t but he got away with it at Anfield because he struck gold in his 1'st season at Anfield when Gerrard won him the Champions League practically single handed & lets not forget that he dropped a team that regularly qualified for the Champions League out of the top 4 & finished 37 points of the top but he also got to 2 out of 3 cup finals & won one of them .

Dalglish in his 1'st season got to two out of 2 cup finals & won one  , finished 37 points off the top using a squad threatened with relegation & in the process of being rebuilt not a squad who had been regularly qualifying for the Champions League .

Rafas ego also allowed him to try to beat Fergie at his own game & let the press make a complete monkey outa him for it  .

Nobody respected him after that , not even the relegation threatened clubs .

Rafa lost the dressing room he himself assembled .

They dropped from 2'nd to 7'th in one season & then dropped into the relegation zone the following season .

The club almost recovered from it by the end of last season but then we went & sacked the man who was resurrecting us & here we are back in relegation trouble , surprise surprise !

Your post was pragmatic & commendable up until you let slip your foolish notions about Rafa so I felt the need to state the facts .

And it's because of cu*ts like you the club is in the mess it's in. Sure we can blame the other yanks for trying to rape the club financially, but you and your F***ing ilk allowed Purslow to get rid of Rafa and bring in sh*te like Joe Cole on £90,000 a week and that's a F***ing FACT.

So bladebla you utter waste of cum, take a round of applause. WELL DONE son at least YOU got your British feel back to the club.

Well this went well...