The MLB mentality and LFC - "win-now" and "rebuilding"

I've been following baseball and the MLB closely for the past 1 year and a half, reading a lot of great stuff and watching as many games as I can (there are too many of them!) and, though some of the concepts ingrained in baseball mentality - from a fans and team perspective - are still alien to me, in this short period I was able to notice some particularities involved in America's "national pastime".

It's not unusual to see fans, managers and general managers referring to their respective franchises as in a "rebuilding" process, or operating with a "win-now" mentality. These labels are thrown at ease by fans and analysts altogether, and though sometimes they can be inaccurate, it is clear to me that baseball teams do make decisions based on these frameworks.

Let me explain a bit better. I'll try to exemplify with some recent transactions and how they were perceived by fans and media, and/or announced by general managers and managers alike.

The Oakland A's were supposed to be in a "rebuilding" process last year. Their roster in 2011 wasn't up to the task and they had a losing season. However, they did have some "aces" (such as Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill), so, after recognizing that their current roster wouldn't be able to compete at the highest level, the A's decided to make the most of their stars and traded both of them away in exchange of a number of prospects. The thinking behind this kind of transaction is the idea of the club "rebuilding" their roster - giving up talent right now, to maximize their chances of putting up together a good team in the future.

In the end, though, the 2012 Oakland A's were surprisingly good. Some of the players that analysts expected to only "make it" in the big leagues after a few years, settled in nicely straight away (in particular their young pitchers such as Milone and Parker), and the 'moneyballers' ended the year as AL West champions.

The A's surprising performance in 2012 changed the franchise's mood. Billly Beane, the general manager portrayed by Brad Pitt in the film Moneyball, openly admitted that his idea is now to enjoy the opportunity they have this year of competing for the title again, adding experience to the great young squad they have - therefore changing to a "win now" mode.

Talking about the Jed Lowrie acquisition from the Houston Astros, Beane said:

"Given where this club finished last year and where we see it having a chance to compete this year, we wanted to do everything we could to help ourselves right now and felt this was the best route to go."

It means that, since the end of the 2012 season, they've traded young prospects such as AJ Cole and Chris Carter for more experienced talent and are going for it with all their strength. Given the A's financial constraints, if it doesn't work, they could soon find themselves in a "rebuilding" process again in the near future.

The "win now" mentality is perhaps best exemplified by the latest transactions of the Toronto Blue Jays, who recently traded one of the biggest prospects in the game (Arnaud) for a 38 year old pitcher, elected the best player of his position in the 2012 National League (RA Dickey). Given the relative weakness of teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox this year, both of whom are from the same conference as the Jays, the Canadian franchise are trying to give this year their best shot at winning something.

In a "rebuilding" process, meanwhile, are the Houston Astros, who have traded nearly all of their few stars for players who won't improve them right now, but probably will do so in the future.

Okay.

Don't get desperate just yet there - it's not a post about baseball only (a sport I expect most of the readers to have never watched), but I needed to make this long digression to introduce the ideas I want to explore in regards to Liverpool FC.

There's always this chance that I'm reading too much into these ideas, but it's no secret that our owners come from a baseball background, and, as such, it wouldn't surprise me if their so called "long term" plan do involve, as I'm going to suggest, the model of thinking and management usually employed in the Major League Baseball - at least in some degree.

Last season was their first full season in charge of the club. It was a moment of great excitement, after finally getting rid of the 'cowboys' Hicks & Gillet, and, given the general perception that the Reds awfully underperformed in Rafa Benitez's last season and Roy Hodgson's short stint at the club, the owners seemingly went for a "win-now" attitude. When I say "win", it doesn't necessarily mean winning the league at the first attempt, but at least expect to be among the top clubs in the country - which today means qualifying for the UEFA Champions League. After all, the team's improved performance with Kenny Dalglish in the second part of the previous season pointed towards a clear opportunity of getting back to the elite.

The club made big investments in that 2011-12 season which, added to the acquisitions of Suarez and Carroll the season before, amounted to over £100M spent on new players. The preference for players within the EPL also denoted a willingness to sign players who could, at least in theory, adapt straight away. But then came the biggest setback: instead of building on the form shown from January onwards of the 2010-11 season, we finished in a disappointing 8th place with very erratic league performances.

I'll be the first one to say that Rome wasn't built in a day and that, having won us our first trophy in 6 years, Kenny Dalglish deserved more time to correct any mistakes he made. But FSG was having none of that, and the king was sacked after only one full season in charge. There's no denying that he was backed in the market with unsatisfying results, but what we saw after that was a big transformation - denial, if you prefer - of everything that went through during the 2011-12 season (Comolli having lost his job even before Kenny) and many of the recently acquired players saw the way out of the club (or in some cases, like Henderson, the club attempted to get rid of but failed).

It makes perfect sense to discard players who don't feature in the plans of a new manager and his so called 'system', such as Andy Carroll, but the transfer dealings this season suggest a little bit more than that. Not only did "flops" like Carroll and Adam leave, but also experienced heads (and their big wages) like Dirk Kuyt, Craig Bellamy and Maxi Rodriguez left the club without ever being properly replaced. In that aspect, not even Carroll, a player Rodgers clearly doesn't rate, was immediately replaced - we needed to wait until January to acquire another striker.

FSG have always made it clear that they prefer getting young talent with resale value, but under Kenny they also spent big on a 27 year old (now 28) like Downing and brought Bellamy back to the club as a short term solution. Charlie Adam wasn't exactly a youngster when brought to the club either. This season, however, only one of the new signings (Assaidi) is currently over 23 years old (he's 24!). The other players brought in were Borini (21), Allen (22), Sturridge (23) and Coutinho (20).

Add to that the fact the owners refused to improve their offer for Clint Dempsey by a couple of millions of pounds and were unwilling to meet Sigurdsson's wage demands, which implies much more moderation, in contrast to the ruthless attitude that saw the club spend £35M in a player like Andy Carroll only a little more than one year ago.

Of course, the two different processes (win-now or rebuilding) make more sense from a baseball perspective, given that, in the MLB, teams can buy players with money and money only, but most of the transactions occur by trading players. As such, teams need to give up talent to get talent - be it giving up stars for a number of prospects, or the other way round, depending on which framework the team is working with.

Still, a lot of fans have complained (me included) about FSG's lack of patience with Kenny, and saying that, should they be coherent with their past decisions, Rodgers would see the way out at the end of the season as well (unless he wins the UEFA Europa League, which seems unlikely right now, or improves our league fortunes greatly).

However, what I am proposing is the idea that no, Rodgers isn't going anywhere. Barring some tragic results, he's staying for the time being. Agree with FSG's plan or not, that's how I see the situation: they have embarked in a rebuilding process with Liverpool FC and will be willing to give it time to happen. All of our recent signings were players for the future who are still far from their peak, while many experienced (and/or decadent) players went through the exit door, and instead of showing any urgency to bring replacements at any price, they're seemingly waiting for the best opportunities and trying to get a good team together with the passing of a few years.

Irrespective of your opinions on Rodgers, the owners and their plans, the notion of some long desired stability is, in my eyes, a really positive perspective in this sea of negativity we're experiencing right now.

That said, let's hope we are not wasting our chances to compete right now for nothing greater to come in the future. That's always the risk when baseball clubs rebuild their rosters... and it's also the risk we must face in the near future.

Great OP Diego!! 

I agree with basically everything that you said, but want to add one item that makes a big difference between American baseball and football - the draft.  The draft serves as a way of leveling the playing surface for all teams in baseball.  Football has no such thing.  Success breeds success in football because the more successful teams make more money, and more money buys better players.  So, while taking a long term view to success is a very logical thing in the MLB, it is more risky in European football because if the long term moves you make don't work out, then you are constantly losing ground on your competiton....

That being said, the alternative way for a football team of our stature to approach a "rebuilding process" is by doing exactly as we are.  Invest in young talent and mold the core of the team over time.  Cut the wage bill and limit transfer funds for a year (or two or three) in order to stockpile a big reserve of usable funds and then spend it all at once to add the proven players to your roster to create a team capable of "winning now."  I truly believe that this is the owners strategy at the moment.  I have seen a few different figures thrown around, but the general thought is that we have cut (are saving) between 15-20M in wages per year from last year.  Pair that with the fact that we have also raised revenues, and appear to be limiting the amount of money spent on transfers and it looks like we are stockpiling money for a big window in the near future. 

I don't know if that window will be this summer or not, but I am hopeful that we will have a big transfer window sometime in the next 18 months and will transition from a "rebuilding" mentality to a "win now" mentality in the near future.

Great OP Diego!! 

I agree with basically everything that you said, but want to add one item that makes a big difference between American baseball and football - the draft.  The draft serves as a way of leveling the playing surface for all teams in baseball.  Football has no such thing.  Success breeds success in football because the more successful teams make more money, and more money buys better players.  So, while taking a long term view to success is a very logical thing in the MLB, it is more risky in European football because if the long term moves you make don't work out, then you are constantly losing ground on your competiton....

That being said, the alternative way for a football team of our stature to approach a "rebuilding process" is by doing exactly as we are.  Invest in young talent and mold the core of the team over time.  Cut the wage bill and limit transfer funds for a year (or two or three) in order to stockpile a big reserve of usable funds and then spend it all at once to add the proven players to your roster to create a team capable of "winning now."  I truly believe that this is the owners strategy at the moment.  I have seen a few different figures thrown around, but the general thought is that we have cut (are saving) between 15-20M in wages per year from last year.  Pair that with the fact that we have also raised revenues, and appear to be limiting the amount of money spent on transfers and it looks like we are stockpiling money for a big window in the near future. 

I don't know if that window will be this summer or not, but I am hopeful that we will have a big transfer window sometime in the next 18 months and will transition from a "rebuilding" mentality to a "win now" mentality in the near future.

Spot on mate, I totally forgot to mention the draft, which is a massive difference between the way football and baseball teams operate. The overall idea stands, I believe, and I agree with your view about the different risks involved in a 'rebuilding' process in football and baseball.

Draft means absolutely nothing in baseball....hate to pour rain on a sunny day but it means absolutely nothing. 1 player out of 5000 has an immediate impact coming from the draft, on average from the time of getting drafted to making it to a big league squad is 6 years and the odds after getting drafted are 1:1000 of making the parent squad. The majority of drafted players end up playing they're entire careers in A AA AAA leagues.

Draft means absolutely nothing in baseball....hate to pour rain on a sunny day but it means absolutely nothing. 1 player out of 5000 has an immediate impact coming from the draft, on average from the time of getting drafted to making it to a big league squad is 6 years and the odds after getting drafted are 1:1000 of making the parent squad. The majority of drafted players end up playing they're entire careers in A AA AAA leagues.

I wouldn't say 'nothing', but it certainly means a lot less than, say, in the NFL, where recently drafted players often have a big impact... but the draft does give an opportunity to the worst clubs to get the best players available, even though most of the players when drafted are still far from mature enough to play in the big leagues, which means a much greater risk involved in the draft picks. However, I agree that without a salary cap as in the other American sports, the draft ends up not having as much of the impact it is supposed to have, since the bigger teams can always compensate for not having the highest picks with greater financial spending.

I wouldn't say 'nothing', but it certainly means a lot less than, say, in the NFL, where recently drafted players often have a big impact... but the draft does give an opportunity to the worst clubs to get the best players available, even though most of the players when drafted are still far from mature enough to play in the big leagues, which means a much greater risk involved in the draft picks. However, I agree that without a salary cap as in the other American sports, the draft ends up not having as much of the impact it is supposed to have, since the bigger teams can always compensate for not having the highest picks with greater financial spending.

Absolutely Diego....NFL is an entirely different story that is for sure. All NFL players get drafted coming out of college ...some are graduates some are under-grads who leave early but they are 20-22 year old men. There are a lot of 15-16 year olds drafted in the MLB draft that wont be ready for another decade..thats ok, because they can play until late 30's.

Salary cap defines what organizations are the good ones..and the NFL has it right. Everyone operates on a level playing field and every season its fair game on who could win it. The organizations that know how to spend money, and control salaries and are run properly are the successful one's, not who has the most because they all have the same.

Patriots, Ravens, Giants, Packers, are consistently the cream of the crop while the Jets, Cardinals, Bucs, Chiefs consistently suck....its not because of how much money was spent it is because of how it was used and how the organization is run.

My fear with LFC the last 2 years is we don't have money to compete in an open market the way the EPL is now...but at the same time if we were in a cap situation then we appear to have a pretty bad management organization and 3 years now we have not spent money well....its a real quandary.

Draft means absolutely nothing in baseball....hate to pour rain on a sunny day but it means absolutely nothing. 1 player out of 5000 has an immediate impact coming from the draft, on average from the time of getting drafted to making it to a big league squad is 6 years and the odds after getting drafted are 1:1000 of making the parent squad. The majority of drafted players end up playing they're entire careers in A AA AAA leagues.

It absolutely means something.  The worst team gets the first pick, so theoretically they have the best chance at picking a player who will make them better in the future.  A few past number 1 picks include Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, Chipper Jones, Josh Hamilton, and Adrian Gonzalez.  In football, this caliber of player would never end up on a team like Reading, Wigan, Wolves, Hull City, etc unless they shelled out huge money for him which could potentially put their organization in jeopardy (see Portsmouth).  Instead, teams like Man United, Barca, Real Madrid, Munich, Juve, etc get first pick at players that they want because the players want to play for winning clubs.  The American draft system helps to level the playing field.  The football transfer system reinforces the current footballing hierarchy. 

The draft may not be as important to the MLB as it is to the NFL or NBA, but do not act like it doesn't help bad teams become better by drafting well.  There is nothing like this to help level the playing ground in football. 

Salary caps are a different issue entirely. 

It absolutely means something.  The worst team gets the first pick, so theoretically they have the best chance at picking a player who will make them better in the future.  A few past number 1 picks include Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, Chipper Jones, Josh Hamilton, and Adrian Gonzalez.  In football, this caliber of player would never end up on a team like Reading, Wigan, Wolves, Hull City, etc unless they shelled out huge money for him which could potentially put their organization in jeopardy (see Portsmouth).  Instead, teams like Man United, Barca, Real Madrid, Munich, Juve, etc get first pick at players that they want because the players want to play for winning clubs.  The American draft system helps to level the playing field.  The football transfer system reinforces the current footballing hierarchy. 

The draft may not be as important to the MLB as it is to the NFL or NBA, but do not act like it doesn't help bad teams become better by drafting well.  There is nothing like this to help level the playing ground in football. 

Salary caps are a different issue entirely. 

Harry, it still took Chipper Jones and Adrian Gonzalez 5 plus years to become "big"players..those names you list are scattered over a 20 year period and for each one of those I could give you a 1st round 1st player chosen that you never heard from again...the Kansas City Royals get the first pick in the draft every other year or so yet they have still stunk for 25 years. On the whole the MLB draft is a place to stock the shelves of the minor leagues where once again 1:1000 draftees will finally make it to the parent club. 30 teams 40 rounds of college and high school players 1200 kids a year in the draft. This number does not include the central/south american players which are scouted and bid for outside of the draft that make of the largest majority of new players.

80% of new ball players entering AAA or the Majors come from the farm systems of central/south American and the islands there about...those players are not drafted but recruited into Academy's (much like in EPL) where they sign semi-pro contracts at a very young age. The MLB draft itself gets smaller and smaller each year as the number of home-grown players (ie born in the US) gets smaller and smaller and the number of foreign players continues to soar.

It's easy for these baseball teams to take chances considering they can't get relegated.

Excellently written and very interesting OP.
Knowing nothing about baseball, there's little point me commenting on that side of things but I agree with the idea that we are in a "rebuilding" phase with a view to shifting to "win now" at the appropriate time. Whether that is FSG trying to translate baseball philosophies to football or simply that they were unconvinced by Kenny (the fan's choice) and are prepared to give Rodgers (their man) time to do his thing, I don't know.
I mentioned in the manager's thread that I was encouraged to hear him talk about adding experience in the summer. It was pointed out that we could have done that in Jan but I don't believe that was part of the "plan". Transfer windows will be planned months in advance and without knowing about the baseball philosophies, I already suspected that we would continue to add decent young players and slowly build a capable squad before adding top class established players. You also have to factor in that it is far more difficult to sign such players in the January window when most experienced players are of great importance to their teams.
The theories in the OP fit nicely with what I already believed so again, I'm actually quite encouraged by what I have read. I'd love us to spunk 100s of millions on players to help is win now but that is unrealistic and I wouldn't want the club put in jeopardy that way. I haven't written off this season yet, there's a long way to go in the league and with a bit of luck, the Europa too so I'll try to keep my emotions in check when a slip now and then!

The term "re-building" suggests that eventually something is built. LFC have been "re-building" for twenty years now and there's still no sign of anything being built. "Re-building" has, unfortunately, become a by-word for LFC's Premiership years and one I'm sick and tired of hearing. It's a proven fact that in Football, success breeds success. Instant success means CL football. CL football means more money. More money means better players. Better players means more success.  In most big leagues it starts and finishes with large team investment. We can't wait four or five years to build a title challenging team. Young players get old, players in their prime retire, your best players move on due to a lack of success and you end up trapped in the cycle of re-building that we are.

I have to agree but FSG have not been here for 20 years. It's difficult, no, painful for us to go through yet another period of rebuilding but the owners believe that this is the correct way of achieving success in the long term so we need to grit our teeth and bear it for a while.
Please don't turn this into yet another thread where we argue over whether FSG are good for the club. I'm sure that wasn't the intention of the OP. It's just an interesting insight into what the owners' mentality might be.

Excellently written and very interesting OP.
Knowing nothing about baseball, there's little point me commenting on that side of things but I agree with the idea that we are in a "rebuilding" phase with a view to shifting to "win now" at the appropriate time. Whether that is FSG trying to translate baseball philosophies to football or simply that they were unconvinced by Kenny (the fan's choice) and are prepared to give Rodgers (their man) time to do his thing, I don't know.
I mentioned in the manager's thread that I was encouraged to hear him talk about adding experience in the summer. It was pointed out that we could have done that in Jan but I don't believe that was part of the "plan". Transfer windows will be planned months in advance and without knowing about the baseball philosophies, I already suspected that we would continue to add decent young players and slowly build a capable squad before adding top class established players. You also have to factor in that it is far more difficult to sign such players in the January window when most experienced players are of great importance to their teams.
The theories in the OP fit nicely with what I already believed so again, I'm actually quite encouraged by what I have read. I'd love us to spunk 100s of millions on players to help is win now but that is unrealistic and I wouldn't want the club put in jeopardy that way. I haven't written off this season yet, there's a long way to go in the league and with a bit of luck, the Europa too so I'll try to keep my emotions in check when a slip now and then!

Glad you liked it mate, indeed the theory on my post is not something entirely new, we all have an idea of what the owners plans seem to be, but I think when you take some concepts from their original background in baseball it makes even more sense and helps understanding what I believe their long term goals are. Hopefully our young players will develop quickly so we can shift to a win now attitude rather sooner than later.

Really interesting read that thanks for posting.