I've been following baseball and the MLB closely for the past 1 year and a half, reading a lot of great stuff and watching as many games as I can (there are too many of them!) and, though some of the concepts ingrained in baseball mentality - from a fans and team perspective - are still alien to me, in this short period I was able to notice some particularities involved in America's "national pastime".
It's not unusual to see fans, managers and general managers referring to their respective franchises as in a "rebuilding" process, or operating with a "win-now" mentality. These labels are thrown at ease by fans and analysts altogether, and though sometimes they can be inaccurate, it is clear to me that baseball teams do make decisions based on these frameworks.
Let me explain a bit better. I'll try to exemplify with some recent transactions and how they were perceived by fans and media, and/or announced by general managers and managers alike.
The Oakland A's were supposed to be in a "rebuilding" process last year. Their roster in 2011 wasn't up to the task and they had a losing season. However, they did have some "aces" (such as Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill), so, after recognizing that their current roster wouldn't be able to compete at the highest level, the A's decided to make the most of their stars and traded both of them away in exchange of a number of prospects. The thinking behind this kind of transaction is the idea of the club "rebuilding" their roster - giving up talent right now, to maximize their chances of putting up together a good team in the future.
In the end, though, the 2012 Oakland A's were surprisingly good. Some of the players that analysts expected to only "make it" in the big leagues after a few years, settled in nicely straight away (in particular their young pitchers such as Milone and Parker), and the 'moneyballers' ended the year as AL West champions.
The A's surprising performance in 2012 changed the franchise's mood. Billly Beane, the general manager portrayed by Brad Pitt in the film Moneyball, openly admitted that his idea is now to enjoy the opportunity they have this year of competing for the title again, adding experience to the great young squad they have - therefore changing to a "win now" mode.
Talking about the Jed Lowrie acquisition from the Houston Astros, Beane said:
"Given where this club finished last year and where we see it having a chance to compete this year, we wanted to do everything we could to help ourselves right now and felt this was the best route to go."
It means that, since the end of the 2012 season, they've traded young prospects such as AJ Cole and Chris Carter for more experienced talent and are going for it with all their strength. Given the A's financial constraints, if it doesn't work, they could soon find themselves in a "rebuilding" process again in the near future.
The "win now" mentality is perhaps best exemplified by the latest transactions of the Toronto Blue Jays, who recently traded one of the biggest prospects in the game (Arnaud) for a 38 year old pitcher, elected the best player of his position in the 2012 National League (RA Dickey). Given the relative weakness of teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox this year, both of whom are from the same conference as the Jays, the Canadian franchise are trying to give this year their best shot at winning something.
In a "rebuilding" process, meanwhile, are the Houston Astros, who have traded nearly all of their few stars for players who won't improve them right now, but probably will do so in the future.
Okay.
Don't get desperate just yet there - it's not a post about baseball only (a sport I expect most of the readers to have never watched), but I needed to make this long digression to introduce the ideas I want to explore in regards to Liverpool FC.
There's always this chance that I'm reading too much into these ideas, but it's no secret that our owners come from a baseball background, and, as such, it wouldn't surprise me if their so called "long term" plan do involve, as I'm going to suggest, the model of thinking and management usually employed in the Major League Baseball - at least in some degree.
Last season was their first full season in charge of the club. It was a moment of great excitement, after finally getting rid of the 'cowboys' Hicks & Gillet, and, given the general perception that the Reds awfully underperformed in Rafa Benitez's last season and Roy Hodgson's short stint at the club, the owners seemingly went for a "win-now" attitude. When I say "win", it doesn't necessarily mean winning the league at the first attempt, but at least expect to be among the top clubs in the country - which today means qualifying for the UEFA Champions League. After all, the team's improved performance with Kenny Dalglish in the second part of the previous season pointed towards a clear opportunity of getting back to the elite.
The club made big investments in that 2011-12 season which, added to the acquisitions of Suarez and Carroll the season before, amounted to over £100M spent on new players. The preference for players within the EPL also denoted a willingness to sign players who could, at least in theory, adapt straight away. But then came the biggest setback: instead of building on the form shown from January onwards of the 2010-11 season, we finished in a disappointing 8th place with very erratic league performances.
I'll be the first one to say that Rome wasn't built in a day and that, having won us our first trophy in 6 years, Kenny Dalglish deserved more time to correct any mistakes he made. But FSG was having none of that, and the king was sacked after only one full season in charge. There's no denying that he was backed in the market with unsatisfying results, but what we saw after that was a big transformation - denial, if you prefer - of everything that went through during the 2011-12 season (Comolli having lost his job even before Kenny) and many of the recently acquired players saw the way out of the club (or in some cases, like Henderson, the club attempted to get rid of but failed).
It makes perfect sense to discard players who don't feature in the plans of a new manager and his so called 'system', such as Andy Carroll, but the transfer dealings this season suggest a little bit more than that. Not only did "flops" like Carroll and Adam leave, but also experienced heads (and their big wages) like Dirk Kuyt, Craig Bellamy and Maxi Rodriguez left the club without ever being properly replaced. In that aspect, not even Carroll, a player Rodgers clearly doesn't rate, was immediately replaced - we needed to wait until January to acquire another striker.
FSG have always made it clear that they prefer getting young talent with resale value, but under Kenny they also spent big on a 27 year old (now 28) like Downing and brought Bellamy back to the club as a short term solution. Charlie Adam wasn't exactly a youngster when brought to the club either. This season, however, only one of the new signings (Assaidi) is currently over 23 years old (he's 24!). The other players brought in were Borini (21), Allen (22), Sturridge (23) and Coutinho (20).
Add to that the fact the owners refused to improve their offer for Clint Dempsey by a couple of millions of pounds and were unwilling to meet Sigurdsson's wage demands, which implies much more moderation, in contrast to the ruthless attitude that saw the club spend £35M in a player like Andy Carroll only a little more than one year ago.
Of course, the two different processes (win-now or rebuilding) make more sense from a baseball perspective, given that, in the MLB, teams can buy players with money and money only, but most of the transactions occur by trading players. As such, teams need to give up talent to get talent - be it giving up stars for a number of prospects, or the other way round, depending on which framework the team is working with.
Still, a lot of fans have complained (me included) about FSG's lack of patience with Kenny, and saying that, should they be coherent with their past decisions, Rodgers would see the way out at the end of the season as well (unless he wins the UEFA Europa League, which seems unlikely right now, or improves our league fortunes greatly).
However, what I am proposing is the idea that no, Rodgers isn't going anywhere. Barring some tragic results, he's staying for the time being. Agree with FSG's plan or not, that's how I see the situation: they have embarked in a rebuilding process with Liverpool FC and will be willing to give it time to happen. All of our recent signings were players for the future who are still far from their peak, while many experienced (and/or decadent) players went through the exit door, and instead of showing any urgency to bring replacements at any price, they're seemingly waiting for the best opportunities and trying to get a good team together with the passing of a few years.
Irrespective of your opinions on Rodgers, the owners and their plans, the notion of some long desired stability is, in my eyes, a really positive perspective in this sea of negativity we're experiencing right now.
That said, let's hope we are not wasting our chances to compete right now for nothing greater to come in the future. That's always the risk when baseball clubs rebuild their rosters... and it's also the risk we must face in the near future.