Champions League Knockout phase - Can we get there?

It struck me today that we're all talking about the league and whether we can qualify for the Champions League next year but almost no talk about the Champions League we're in this year. Certainly no specific thread outside of the individual match threads. So I thought I'd start one.

As things stand, we're currently 3rd (of four) in the group, 3 points behind second place Basel with one away game (next) and one home game to come. Goal difference does not come in to the equation, only head to head. There's several permutations for qualification to the next round. The easiest is simply win all our remaining games which will give us 9 points and hope that Ludogorets and Basel draw finishing them both on less points than us. Another way, is to win our next two games and win Basel 2-0 which should qualify us with 9 points even if Basel finish on 9 points themselves. The final way and the least best scenario is we loose to Ludogorets by a single goal but beat Basel by more than two goals which should, I believe, mean we finish on six points but go through second in the group because of our head to head against both Ludogorets and Basel.

But the way our season has gone so far and the fact we have so many problem areas all over the pitch, players low on confidence, a manager who seems to have run out of ideas and all our hopes pinned on the return of a single player, will we actually do this? There's another question to ask (and one that doesn't necessarily reflect my own thoughts). Do we want this? Taken within the context of the season so far, would remaining in the Champions League increase the likelihood of our failing to qualify for next season's tournament? Would the lack of any mid-week distractions be a help in the longer term re-development of the club? Or would failure to qualify for the knockout phase be yet another nail in the coffin of our season?

What's your thoughts?

Two good questions mate.

Can we get there? 

Well there's no reason why we can't, as you point out Danny's back this weekend and although he's going to be under immense pressure to kick start our season, I'm positive he's more than capable.  Of course your scenario is assuming that Madrid will win both their remaining games but if they don't then our chance has gone, regardless of our own results.

Do we want to?

Of course we want to, we absolutely need to and not just for the money.  The lads need as much European experience as they can possibly get.  They and Brendan need to get to grips with playing matches every few days, travelling in between games, learning how best to recover, how and when to rotate players and how football is played outside of the PL.  If these lads are to become top professionals and Brendan is to become a top Manager, they have to do so on the biggest stage and there is none bigger than the CL.

If we fail though do we want to finish last or 3rd in the group which drops us into the EL?

I'm guessing a lot on here would prefer to be out of it altogether but as above I want us in it for as long as possible.  Don't forget that winning the EL this season means automatic qualification into the CL qualifyers next season and how good would that be.  A trophy and CL football again 

I have to imagine Madrid will beat both Basel and Ludo, so our fate should be on our own hands. I believe we should win both of our two remaining games, so we should progress. If we don't make it through, then I absolutely want to finish 3rd so we can make a run at winning the Europa League. As Debs mentioned, more European experience, a trophy, and automatic qualification for the main event again next season would be a wonderful "consolation prize"

Can we get there - As it's mathematically possible then yes we can.

Will we get there - The bookies have it at a virtual coin flip 51/49 in our favour with Basel, I would personally make us stronger favourites than that simply because of how we generally do things. However one thing doesn't work in our favour this time, Brendan's record in knock-out competitions is horrendous, there's no two ways about it and essentially that last game against Basel will probably come down to that, us or them.

This kind of brings me on to the next point, because Debs paints a great picture of us winning a European trophy and securing CL qualification for next year. The thought has crossed my mind that this might end up being our best chance as the season progresses. Again though I can't be confident of our chances of progressing in a knock-out competition judging on our past performance under Brendan.

So the scenario that gives us the most chance of qualification next year is probably being knocked out at this stage. Would I want that? Hell no! I'd rather be in it with a chance of winning it, no matter how slim that chance may be.

Sturridge basically has 3 weeks to be in top form for the Basel game, we shouldn't need him for more than 60 mins against Ludo, but most probably will. It's going to be tough but for now both my head and heart say we should just manage it as long as Sturridge remains fit.

Did anyone actually think we would make it easy.Not a chance

Strange as it may seem as our backs are up against the wall generally ...  we could do this thing.

Our destiny is in our hands, win both and we're thru, simples,  however when do we do things simple,
I'm.hoping we stay in the CL and not end up in the El, 
As funny as it seems continuing in the CL for however long will give us a better chance of a higher finish in the league,
Dropping into the El and playing on a Thursday then a Sunday or Monday would imo be worse,

I suppose it's about the recovery period and the conditions of where in Europe we will play, but I think players adapt more to playing Tuesdays & Wednesday rather than Thursday, haven’t got any stats to back it up maybe some nerd out there has?


YNWA

I said from the outset that if we wrote the Madrid games off from the start then the four matches against Basel and Ludogorets will be the deciders. On that evidence so far, there's half a chance!

If Madrid stay interested (let's be honest, their reserves could probably top this group) and we get our sh*t together with regard to our defence then I think we can scrape second.

It's horrible but we all knew we wouldn't do it the easy way. I don't even know why we're worrying!

Of course your scenario is assuming that Madrid will win both their remaining games but if they don't then our chance has gone, regardless of our own results.

We can still qualify even if Madrid lost their remaining games I think Debs.

Basle have 2 games left Madrid and us. They have 6 points so if they beat Madrid they will have 9 points

We have 3 points if we beat Ludo and Basle we will have 9 points so it will go to the head to head games meaning we need to beat Basle 2-0 and we would go through.

First of all let me be clear and say I'm playing devil's advocate in this thread. The views I put across don't necessarily match my own. But they do need to be said.

The thing about winning the Europa League is if we can't beat Ludogorets or Basel - and let's be honest here, it's still possible for us to come bottom of the group - what makes you think we could win the Champions League teams that drop in to the EL with us? There's an argument to be had that says we're lucky to be on three points right now because Ludogorets where unlucky to loose against us at Anfield. It should also be remembered that when playing at home, they gave Real a hell of better game than we did at Anfield.

Then there's the scenario of us being knocked out. If we do drop in to this competition, should we take it seriously in order to gain European experience (my view on this is already on record) or do we consider it a distraction and as such, field weakened teams until we're knocked out, using the main core of players to focus on finishing fourth?

First of all let me be clear and say I'm playing devil's advocate in this thread. The views I put across don't necessarily match my own. But they do need to be said.

The thing about winning the Europa League is if we can't beat Ludogorets or Basel - and let's be honest here, it's still possible for us to come bottom of the group - what makes you think we could win the Champions League teams that drop in to the EL with us? There's an argument to be had that says we're lucky to be on three points right now because Ludogorets where unlucky to loose against us at Anfield. It should also be remembered that when playing at home, they gave Real a hell of better game than we did at Anfield.

Then there's the scenario of us being knocked out. If we do drop in to this competition, should we take it seriously in order to gain European experience (my view on this is already on record) or do we consider it a distraction and as such, field weakened teams until we're knocked out, using the main core of players to focus on finishing fourth?

I think the premise is that we will improve mate. If we continue to play as we have so far, our seasons as good as over now.

We can still qualify even if Madrid lost their remaining games I think Debs.

Basle have 2 games left Madrid and us. They have 6 points so if they beat Madrid they will have 9 points

We have 3 points if we beat Ludo and Basle we will have 9 points so it will go to the head to head games meaning we need to beat Basle 2-0 and we would go through.

That's ok then mate, I hadn't checked.

We can get there but it is very touch and go and our form has been that poor that optimism for this comp seems to have wilted.

Yes, we want to but it looks slim hence why many aren't doing cartwheels about it. Basel will have the air of Olympiakos about it, if we beat IMO a decent attacking Ludogerets.

That's ok then mate, I hadn't checked.

Our qualification is based simply on our matching points with one or both of the other teams but having results that are no worse than our win against them and better than our loss against them respectively. Put simply, if we loose to Ludo we have to loose less badly than they lost to us and we have to win Basel by more than they won us by and we qualify regardless of any other considerations.

In all reality, Basel is the only 'must win' game for us.

To be honest Brendans record in cups has been woeful so far, so i wasnt expecting to get out of the group, even after the draw was made!

Brendan seems to need time to adjust at every footballing juction he comes to... CL will be no different!

However after Losing 3 games, its still doable... so I'll take that!

To answer the topic question -- of course we can! God forbid we finish 3rd and drop into the Europa League and Thursday night kickoffs. That alone should be motivation enough to beat the crap out of Basel and Ludogorets.

To answer the topic question -- of course we can! God forbid we finish 3rd and drop into the Europa League and Thursday night kickoffs. That alone should be motivation enough to beat the crap out of Basel and Ludogorets.

I agree dropping down to the Europa will be awful for the squad.

What it comes down to is the cliche saying "You Win, You're In." Can we win both of our games? Yes. I think that revisiting this question after this weekend when the return of DS might give us a glimpse of what this team could be, is fair and should be done. Hopefully by the 26th the squad will feel a lot more confident because we just put a beatdown on CP away. The fans will be reenergized, the squad will be reenergized, and BR will be pushed to put out a starting 11 that could push us out of the group and into the knockout stage.

YNWA

Can't see it happening if Brendan continues with his current strategy. Been so poor of late, and no signs of any changes !

I would have been confident with Sturridge back. He can nick goals out of nothing and his movement opens up space for others.

With Balotelli, Borini and Lambert as our impotent main strikers it will be very difficult.

We can get there.

I'm not sure whether I'd bet any decent money on it though.

I agree dropping down to the Europa will be awful for the squad.

What it comes down to is the cliche saying "You Win, You're In." Can we win both of our games? Yes. I think that revisiting this question after this weekend when the return of DS might give us a glimpse of what this team could be, is fair and should be done. Hopefully by the 26th the squad will feel a lot more confident because we just put a beatdown on CP away. The fans will be reenergized, the squad will be reenergized, and BR will be pushed to put out a starting 11 that could push us out of the group and into the knockout stage.

YNWA

Why will it be awful? Neither most of the players nor the manager have any real European experience so Brendan needs to learn about managing his side for European away trips and playing twice-weekly matches. Surely it's best to continue that education in the next best place available? Plus winning it now puts you in to the Champions League so it certainly holds value.

The main reason we have any chance right now is because Ludogorets beat Basel the first time they played each other. Win our final 2 matches and we should make it through. The hardest of the 2 fixtures is at home which is a bonus, we HAVE to win it though and I'm not that confident atm which is sad to say.

Who knows we may at some point play half decent in a game and score a couple of goals