LFC League Season Analysis - 2015/16

We've had similar threads like this before and it might be interesting to do it again this season.

In the past we have tended to use two points targets based on historical finishing totals of the teams in 4th and 5th place.

They were 87 points for a likely title win and 68 points as a target for 4th place.

Factoring in the last few seasons we will keep the title target points the same, but increase the target for 4th place.

In fact last season Chelsea won the title with the exact number of wins, draws and defeats that we have always used in our prediction method.

The following information depicts the 'easiest route' to achieve the points target.  Fixtures illustrated relate of course to Liverpool.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Man U).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea, Stoke). Defeated at your hardest 3 (Chelsea, City, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (70 points)

Requirements:
Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 (Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, Southampton, Swansea). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (Chelsea, City)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Swansea, Stoke, Palace, Everton, West Ham). Defeated at the hardest 6. (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, United, Spurs, Southampton)

P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

Liverpool FC

Title Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge.

Top Four Target (as of 19th August 2015)

Stoke (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Bournemouth (H) Predicted Win Actual Win (+0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.


Other clubs (as of 19th August 2015)

Chelsea

Title Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Swansea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Draw (0pts)
Man City (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)

Overall: 0 points. On course for top four.

Arsenal

Title Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

West Ham (H) Predicted Win Actual Defeat (-3pts)
Palace (A) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: -1 points. Below top four challenge.

Man City

Title Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

West Brom (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)
Chelsea (H) Predicted Defeat Actual Win (+3pts)

Overall: +3 points. On course for top four.

Man Utd

Title Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for title challenge

Top Four Target

Spurs (H) Predicted Draw Actual Win (+2pts)
Villa (A) Predicted Win Actual Win (0pts)

Overall: +2 points. On course for top four.

Spurs

Title Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Draw Actual Defeat (-1pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -3 points. Below target for title challenge.

Top Four Target

Man Utd (A) Predicted Defeat Actual Defeat (0pts)
Stoke (H) Predicted Win Actual Draw (-2pts)

Overall: -2 points. Below target for top four.


As it stands

Title challenge

Liverpool +2
Man City +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea -2
Arsenal -3
Spurs -3

Top four challenge

Man City +3
Liverpool +2
Man Utd +2
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -1
Spurs -2

Man,what a stat's...
You work for the government?

Love this,  good work!

We missed out on a chance to really climb the table in December, but no one is really stringing winning runs together so the league is still wide open.  One thing is certain though, we desperately need to improve our goal difference.  We are the only side in the top 12 with a negative goal difference.....

We missed out on a chance to really climb the table in December, but no one is really stringing winning runs together so the league is still wide open.  One thing is certain though, we desperately need to improve our goal difference.  We are the only side in the top 12 with a negative goal difference.....

Spurs look on top form.

Spurs look on top form.

Thats who we need to track .

8 points behind em with a game in hand.

Realistically with the squad inherited we haven't enough quality to even think about the title A couple of transfer windows bringing three players max in at each one would put us in contention.


Top 4 / Trophy   would be great from where we are.

Too busy sorting out the new forum layout problems, or just losing interest JD ?

Too busy sorting out the new forum layout problems, or just losing interest JD ?

CliffsNotes version: We're way off of where we need to be.

Too busy sorting out the new forum layout problems, or just losing interest JD ?

Some truth in the first part - but mainly Christmas is a killer for falling behind.  Will do a monstrous update on Tuesday.

Meanwhile - amazing that Leicester, even though they have only won 1 of their last 5 games, are still top of the Premier League.

Hi

Been a member for a while but never commented. I was just wondering if this thread is going to be revived as i used to find it a great read.

Hi

Been a member for a while but never commented. I was just wondering if this thread is going to be revived as i used to find it a great read.

Yes. I'm going to automate it to save me time and then bring it back.