Trending Topics

      Next match: Sydney v LFC [Friendly] Wed 24th May @ 11:00 am
      ANZ Stadium

      Today is the 23rd of May and on this date LFC's match record is P8 W3 D1 L4

      How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?

      Read 1247 times
      0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
      JD
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • Started Topic
      • 38,427 posts | 2712 
      How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      : Feb 11, 2017 10:30:22 pm »
      Current table

      Chelsea 59pts*
      Spurs 50pts
      Arsenal 50pts
      Liverpool 49pts
      Man City 49pts *
      United 48pts

      * = game in hand

      Only Chelsea doing better than 2 points per game this season. 

      My feeling is that 2 points per game should be easily enough from this point - especially with cup competitions ongoing for some sides especially European competitions?

      Higher than that or lower than that?
      paulow63
      • Forum Didi Hamann
      • ***

      • 302 posts | 37 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #1 : Feb 11, 2017 10:59:29 pm »
      78 points
      srslfc
      • Forum Legend - Shankly
      • *****

      • 23,500 posts | 1270 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #2 : Feb 11, 2017 11:01:21 pm »
      Current table

      Chelsea 59pts*
      Spurs 50pts
      Arsenal 50pts
      Liverpool 49pts
      Man City 49pts *
      United 48pts

      * = game in hand

      Only Chelsea doing better than 2 points per game this season. 

      My feeling is that 2 points per game should be easily enough from this point - especially with cup competitions ongoing for some sides especially European competitions?

      Higher than that or lower than that?

      I'd agree on 2 points per game being enough.

      Spurs I think might drop off a little and I only see Chelsea keeping up any type of run.
      AussieRed
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 13,270 posts | 1626 
      • You'll Never Walk Alone
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #3 : Feb 11, 2017 11:06:30 pm »
      Let's just win our next 13 games and see where that leaves us. Hopefully in 1st with those Chav cu*ts losing and drawing their remaining games for the season.  :angel:

      Shabs
      • Forum Legend - Paisley
      • *****

      • 18,949 posts | 1343 
      • I Create What I Speak
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #4 : Feb 12, 2017 12:46:16 am »
      Won't really matter will it?..i mean winning should guarantee a CL spot ;D
      DaktionLFC
      • Forum Legend - Benitez
      • *****

      • 1,082 posts | 84 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #5 : Feb 12, 2017 03:45:56 am »
      it really is a shame isnt it?  that diabolic janurary destroyed a great chance to win the league.

      manutd i feel will continue to be strong

      chelsea definitely in

      tottenham would drop off a bit

      arsenal drop off a bit and end off in 4th as thats their spot

      city i feel would be playing more consistently

      yup. lets just win all the remaining games to ensure CL :)
      redkop63
      • Forum Legend - Dalglish
      • *****

      • 5,559 posts | 188 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #6 : Feb 12, 2017 08:36:40 am »
      If 78 points is the benchmark to make top 4, then we will need another 29 points from the next 13 games. The combo results of the remaining games could turned to be as follows :-

      W 13 D 0 L 0  : 39 pts  Total  :  88 pts
      W 12 D 1 L 0  : 37 pts  Total  :  86 pts
      W 12 D 0 L 1  : 36 pts  Total  :  85 pts
      W 11 D 2 L 0  : 35 pts  Total  :  84 pts
      W 11 D 1 L 1  : 34 pts  Total  :  83 pts
      W 11 D 0 L 2  : 33 pts  Total  :  82 pts
      W 10 D 3 L 0  : 33 pts  Total  :  82 Pts
      W 10 D 2 L 1  : 32 pts  Total  :  81 pts
      W 10 D 1 L 2  : 31 pts  Total  :  80 pts
      W 10 D 0 L 3  : 30 pts  Total  :  79 pts
      W   9 D 4 L 0  : 31 pts  Total  :  80 pts
      W   9 D 3 L 1  : 30 pts  Total  :  79 pts
      W   9 D 2 L 2  : 29 pts  Total  :  78 pts *****
      W   9 D 1 L 3  : 28 pts  Total  :  77 pts
      W   9 D 0 L 4  : 27 pts  Total  :  76 pts
      W   8 D 5 L 0  : 29 pts  Total  :  78 pts *****
      W   8 D 4 L 1  : 28 pts  Total  :  77 pts
      W   8 D 3 L 2  : 27 pts  Total  :  76 pts
      W   8 D 2 L 3  : 26 pts  Total  :  75 pts
      W   8 D 1 L 4  : 25 pts  Total  :  74 pts
      W   8 D 2 L 3  : 26 pts  Total  :  75 pts ?????
      W   8 D 1 L 4  : 25 pts  Total  :  74 pts
      W   8 D 0 L 5  : 24 pts  Total  :  73 pts

       This is how the top 4 made it in :-

      2015/16
      1   Leicester City (C)   81 pts
      2   Arsenal              71 pts
      3   Tottenham Hotspur   70 pts
      4   Manchester City       66 pts

      2014/15
      1   Chelsea (C)      87 pts
      2   Manchester City      79 pts
      3   Arsenal               75 pts
      4   Manchester United   70 pts

      I'd take the 2014/15 season as a gauge of how many points we will need.  70 pts would be a bare minimum needed while 78 points would give us a "very good chance" of making top 4. 75 points would most probably allow us to sneak in.

      That points simulation tells me one thing, we will need to avoid further defeats from now on. We can draw up to a total of 5 game with 8 wins and still muster 78 points. As many have said, we find ourselves still in a strong position is because we have done very well in the 1st half of the season.

      In summary, I would say anything more than 70 points would give us a very god chance of ending up at top 4.

      Anyone dare to think of a 13 straight wins that will give us a total 88 points and beat Chelsea to the title?

      (Note  : Any calculation error here, kindly point out. Maths is not one of my strongest point)
      bad boy bubby
      • Forum Legend - Paisley
      • *****

      • 13,798 posts | 2471 
      • Better Red Than Dead @KaiserQueef
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #7 : Feb 12, 2017 08:51:48 am »
      Providing the scum don't win the Europa League... my guess is 76.
      RedPuppy
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 16,147 posts | 1153 
      • Parum Rutilus Canis: Illegitimi non carborundum
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #8 : Feb 12, 2017 09:04:41 am »
      Sorry to be an dick, but 1pt more than the 5th placed team, but ideally, 1 more than the 4th placed team.

      At this stage I don't feel you can put a safe number of points as it's as tight as a duck's arse at the moment.  Goal difference may be crucial. 
      althebest1
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 2,837 posts | 216 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #9 : Feb 12, 2017 10:26:09 am »
      I feel we need top 3 to ensure CL although top 4 would probably do, and as I have stated before it's in our own hands, only the players can do it. United have the best run in (on paper anyway) so I expect them to finish top 4 at the very least although it hurts to write!! Klopp likes time on the training pitch and now he has it but we need to finish off Arsenal and City when we play them, so still tough times ahead.
      chats
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 18,975 posts | 282 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #10 : Feb 12, 2017 10:46:09 am »
      What happens if United/Spurs win the Europa League or City/Arsenal win the CL and finish outside the top four (latter being very unlikely I know)?

      I think 76 will be enough if top four qualify but a couple more to get 3rd and avoid a qualifier would be decent.
      Magillionare
      • Official LFC Reds Sig Maker. Lives on Sesame Street.
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 12,285 posts | 1029 
      • Hold on a minute, John Wayne hasn't arrived yet.
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #11 : Feb 12, 2017 11:07:06 am »
      75 points should seal it
      reddebs
      • "LFC Hipster"
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 17,928 posts | 2200 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #12 : Feb 12, 2017 12:46:38 pm »
      No point worrying about what others will do, apart from when we play them there's f**k all we can do about it.

      Get the Arsenal and city games out the way and we've a clear run at it.  As for the scum, they've an easy run for a few weeks then have Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs all in the last few games.  If they win them and we've done our job they'll be doing us a favour, if they lose them then bye bye CL for them for another season.  It's a win, win IF we've done our job.

      2ppg should be enough as it gives us 75 points, put in a winning run like the 13/14 season and we're laughing.


      RedPuppy
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 16,147 posts | 1153 
      • Parum Rutilus Canis: Illegitimi non carborundum
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #13 : Feb 12, 2017 03:12:50 pm »
      What happens if United/Spurs win the Europa League or City/Arsenal win the CL and finish outside the top four (latter being very unlikely I know)?

      Trump will become The Intergalatic Emperor for ALL ETERNITY. #AWESOME.
      RobieSlick
      • Forum Legend - Benitez
      • *****

      • 1,996 posts | 121 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #14 : Feb 13, 2017 10:22:51 am »
      What happens if United/Spurs win the Europa League or City/Arsenal win the CL and finish outside the top four (latter being very unlikely I know)?

      I think 76 will be enough if top four qualify but a couple more to get 3rd and avoid a qualifier would be decent.

      That's fighting talk Chats. ;) Give you head a wobble.
      Scum/Spuds will bow out of EL and Arsenal/City will bow out of CL.

      ruthcity
      • Forum Legend - Fagan
      • *****

      • 2,834 posts | 171 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #15 : Feb 13, 2017 11:02:59 am »
      Past 7 seasons' average for fourth is 70.71 points. We need 21.71 points from 13 games to get there. 1.67 points per game. Number crunchers, data is below.

      Points for fourth placed teams
      2010 Spurs 70
      2011 Arsenal 68
      2012 Spurs 69
      2013 Arsenal 73
      2014 Arsenal 79
      2015 United 70
      2016 City 66

      If we seasonalise our performance, we will finish with 74.48 points, well above the average.
      bad boy bubby
      • Forum Legend - Paisley
      • *****

      • 13,798 posts | 2471 
      • Better Red Than Dead @KaiserQueef
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #16 : May 21, 2017 06:13:43 pm »
      So 76 points it was then.
      Frankly, Mr Shankly
      • Forum Legend - Paisley
      • *****

      • 14,970 posts | 2672 
      • YNWA
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #17 : May 21, 2017 06:20:40 pm »

      I think Arsenal finishing 5th with 75 points is the highest ever achieved without getting into the CL. We've done well in the end when you consider that.
      bad boy bubby
      • Forum Legend - Paisley
      • *****

      • 13,798 posts | 2471 
      • Better Red Than Dead @KaiserQueef
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #18 : May 21, 2017 06:27:23 pm »
      I think Arsenal finishing 5th with 75 points is the highest ever achieved without getting into the CL. We've done well in the end when you consider that.
      Aye... from early on it looked like a high points tally would be needed and for once, that's how things panned out.

      So, yes... Jürgen and the lads did us proud. 😎
      JD
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • Started Topic
      • 38,427 posts | 2712 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #19 : May 21, 2017 08:57:25 pm »
      My feeling is that 2 points per game should be easily enough from this point - especially with cup competitions ongoing for some sides especially European competitions?

      Higher than that or lower than that?

      In the 13 games since this topic we've averaged 2.08 points per game.

      So it was a damn tough run in.  We were effectively 5th at that point with Man Utd a point behind us.
      bigmick
      • Forum Legend - Dalglish
      • *****

      • 9,545 posts | 2359 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #20 : May 21, 2017 09:08:20 pm »
      What the season showed once again was it's the ability to consistently smash the cannon fodder which ultimately decides who gets the title or the top spots. Our record against the top 6 was enviable, but our inability to beat sh!te teams was a disaster. Equally, although the league is physically demanding, the actual quality in depth isn't anywhere near so strong as SKY would have you believe. Once you get down to Everton in 7th, the top two basically smash them Home and Away every week, racking up cricket scores in the process. Also interesting that two out of the top four had no European football, obviously a huge advantage. Luckily nobody will have that next season out of the big clubs, although both the Arsenal and the Mancs will surely take the Europa League less than seriously early on, just to ensure they do better in the league next time.   
      Frankly, Mr Shankly
      • Forum Legend - Paisley
      • *****

      • 14,970 posts | 2672 
      • YNWA
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #21 : May 21, 2017 09:16:20 pm »
      What the season showed once again was it's the ability to consistently smash the cannon fodder which ultimately decides who gets the title or the top spots. Our record against the top 6 was enviable, but our inability to beat sh!te teams was a disaster. Equally, although the league is physically demanding, the actual quality in depth isn't anywhere near so strong as SKY would have you believe. Once you get down to Everton in 7th, the top two basically smash them Home and Away every week, racking up cricket scores in the process. Also interesting that two out of the top four had no European football, obviously a huge advantage. Luckily nobody will have that next season out of the big clubs, although both the Arsenal and the Mancs will surely take the Europa League less than seriously early on, just to ensure they do better in the league next time.   

      Disaster's a bit much. We did get top 4 after all.
      KopiteLuke
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 18,688 posts | 2931 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #22 : May 21, 2017 09:39:16 pm »
      Disaster's a bit much. We did get top 4 after all.

      It's comical.

      We smashed these teams early on too, so much so that each and every team played with two banks of 5, almost never leaving their own half. Apparently though, at that point "we'd been found out".

      Then we came unstuck a little, but that dip in form also coincided with our worst run of injuries and Mane having to leave for the AFCON, Jürgen adapted though, against all the bullshit you heard thrown at him that has now dimmed as it it was never there.

      Our points total by year is as follows:

      91' - 64
      92' - 59
      93' - 60
      94' - 74
      95' - 71
      96' - 68
      97' - 65
      98' - 54
      99' - 67
      00' - 69
      01' - 80
      02' - 64
      03' - 60
      04' - 58
      05' - 82
      06' - 68
      07' - 76
      08' - 86
      09' - 63
      10' - 58
      11' - 52
      12' - 61
      13' - 84
      14' - 62
      15' - 60
      16' - 76

      So, just 5 times in the last 26 years have we achieved a points tally equal or greater than this. Yet words like disaster and suicidal are thrown around. Accusations that the manager is clueless and picking the wrong players or the latest hilarious episode (just because Sturridge played ahead of Firmino) that a "plan B has emerged".

      The truth is that Jürgen has done very well taking over a weak squad and turning them, very quickly, into a squad that has qualified for the CL. Highly commendable, nothing stupid, suicidal or disastrous anywhere near what we've achieved this year.

      JD
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • Started Topic
      • 38,427 posts | 2712 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #23 : May 21, 2017 09:42:10 pm »
      What the season showed once again was it's the ability to consistently smash the cannon fodder which ultimately decides who gets the title or the top spots

      Not factually correct.

      Swap our 6 defeats against the lower clubs and reallocate them in our games against the top six.

      If we hadn't taken 6 points off Arsenal they would have finished above us.

      We simply failed to win enough games (didn't win 16). 10 of them were draws.

      If you go through the season and have to lose 6 games, it is far better for you to lose them against relegation threatened clubs than to lose against the top 3 teams in the league home and away.

      LondonRed83
      • Forum Legend - Fagan
      • *****

      • 4,968 posts | 227 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #24 : May 21, 2017 09:47:13 pm »
      It's comical.

      We smashed these teams early on too, so much so that each and every team played with two banks of 5, almost never leaving their own half. Apparently though, at that point "we'd been found out".

      Then we came unstuck a little, but that dip in form also coincided with our worst run of injuries and Mane having to leave for the AFCON, Jürgen adapted though, against all the bullshit you heard thrown at him that has now dimmed as it it was never there.

      Our points total by year is as follows:

      91' - 64
      92' - 59
      93' - 60
      94' - 74
      95' - 71
      96' - 68
      97' - 65
      98' - 54
      99' - 67
      00' - 69
      01' - 80
      02' - 64
      03' - 60
      04' - 58
      05' - 82
      06' - 68
      07' - 76
      08' - 86
      09' - 63
      10' - 58
      11' - 52
      12' - 61
      13' - 84
      14' - 62
      15' - 60
      16' - 76

      So, just 5 times in the last 26 years have we achieved a points tally equal or greater than this. Yet words like disaster and suicidal are thrown around. Accusations that the manager is clueless and picking the wrong players or the latest hilarious episode (just because Sturridge played ahead of Firmino) that a "plan B has emerged".

      The truth is that Jürgen has done very well taking over a weak squad and turning them, very quickly, into a squad that has qualified for the CL. Highly commendable, nothing stupid, suicidal or disastrous anywhere near what we've achieved this year.

      Absolutely agree. +16 season on season is massive!

      Fantastic job by the German. I think he's going to be brilliant in the champions league next year. Can't wait to watch him wave his magic.
      bigmick
      • Forum Legend - Dalglish
      • *****

      • 9,545 posts | 2359 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #25 : May 21, 2017 09:49:46 pm »
      Disaster's a bit much. We did get top 4 after all.

      I'm not sure disaster is a bit much mate. We'd have won the bugger if we'd have been more efficient at putting away the sh!te teams.
      bigmick
      • Forum Legend - Dalglish
      • *****

      • 9,545 posts | 2359 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #26 : May 21, 2017 10:06:18 pm »
      It's comical.

      We smashed these teams early on too, so much so that each and every team played with two banks of 5, almost never leaving their own half. Apparently though, at that point "we'd been found out".

      Then we came unstuck a little, but that dip in form also coincided with our worst run of injuries and Mane having to leave for the AFCON, Jürgen adapted though, against all the bullshit you heard thrown at him that has now dimmed as it it was never there.

      So, just 5 times in the last 26 years have we achieved a points tally equal or greater than this. Yet words like disaster and suicidal are thrown around. Accusations that the manager is clueless and picking the wrong players or the latest hilarious episode (just because Sturridge played ahead of Firmino) that a "plan B has emerged".

      The truth is that Jürgen has done very well taking over a weak squad and turning them, very quickly, into a squad that has qualified for the CL. Highly commendable, nothing stupid, suicidal or disastrous anywhere near what we've achieved this year.



      Well Luke if you don't think we have been at least to an extent "found out" by the weaker teams, you'd be in a significant minority of anyone who knows anything about football that I've listened to. As for a "plan B emerging", it is to be hoped I'm right and we are in the process of seeing it take shape. If I aren't and our intention is to once again try and play exactly the same way in absolutely all of the matches, you can be absolutely certain that we are going to come unstuck against bus parkers next season as well.

      Fortunately I have far more faith in Jürgen than most of the drum bangers. For instance I'm certain that he now realises that going into the season with such a thin squad was a huge mistake and he won't do it again, he's admitted as much. That's what top managers do, they realise they've made a mistake, they admit it, correct it and move on. Unfortunately for some of the drum bangers, they protested so loudly back in the Summer than anybody who could possibly disagree with Jürgen must by definition  be wrong, that now they're a little lost as to what to say. The problem always is of course that while Jürgen can admit he was wrong without a bother, for them it's very tough to do the same. Jürgen WAS wrong (and now of course is RIGHT as he's admitted it) and he definitely won't make the same mistake again IMHO, as I've got more faith in him than that. Equally, Jürgen could do what the drum bangers do and deny the obvious fact that teams have worked us out a bit, or he could change plan, find a plan B as it were. He could say "ah it was just down to injuries, or maybe ift was the AFCON", or maybe he could try and convince himself that we were just "unlucky". My faith in him is such though that he won't waste his time with the self delusion that the drum bangers endulge in, he and Buvak the brain have already IMHO got a plan to counter the BP's (bus parkers) next season.

      Equally, Jürgen will know that had we been better at beating the sh!te we could have won the league. Like me, the fact that the failure to do so cost us the chance I think he will consider it a "disaster". Winners, top managers think like that.   
      HScRed1
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 10,391 posts | 1553 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #27 : May 21, 2017 10:16:01 pm »
      Can't deny if we treated the bottom feeders like the Top 2 have we would have been closer to Chelsea.
      KopiteLuke
      • LFC Reds Subscriber
      • *****
      • 18,688 posts | 2931 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #28 : May 21, 2017 10:18:10 pm »
      Well Luke if you don't think we have been at least to an extent "found out" by the weaker teams

      No, I told you at the time Mick that we hadn't been found out and that Jürgen just needed to find a way to beat that style and we'd be fine. You see Jürgen had teams beat to almost submission, they came with a plan that bordered on desperate, an all out concession of possession and not to compete at all.


      Listen to Jürgen, you'll learn plenty if you do. He's explained exactly how we've set up recently and he's explained exactly how this had nothing to do with a plan B... despite the rest of your ego rubbing.

      Equally, Jürgen will know that had we been better at beating the sh!te we could have won the league. Like me

      Nah Mick, none of this washes whatsoever. At the start of the season you had us down for 6th or 7th, you actually thought that we'd never compete with the teams that spend more than us. That it was a fact that money = CL all of which Jürgen has turned on it's head. He's got a negative net spend and has us back in the CL. Those are the facts Mick.

      You actually thought the choice to go into the season with the squad we had was "suicidal" management. You don't achieve 76 points with suicidal management. You don't improve on the previous season by 16 points with suicidal management.

      So no disasters, no suicidal management, actually a season of tremendous progress and getting CL football when the league is probably filled with the best set of managers it's had in a very long time.
      bigmick
      • Forum Legend - Dalglish
      • *****

      • 9,545 posts | 2359 
      Re: How many points do we need to qualify for the CL?
      Reply #29 : May 21, 2017 10:20:28 pm »
      Can't deny if we treated the bottom feeders like the Top 2 have we would have been closer to Chelsea.

      You can, read the post directly below yours!  ;D

      Quick Reply