Get your head around this mess if you can.
The games across Europe which will decide Liverpool's Champions League fate
All eyes will be on Anfield and the Emirates... and Germany, and Russia...
Liverpool are within touching distance of a Champions League, with a win at home to relegated Middlesbrough enough to seal fourth.
There will be reluctance to discuss what would happen next; the notion of jinxing the Reds’ chances on Sunday lingers.
But bookmakers have Liverpool at 6/1 not to qualify for the Champions League, and 1/10 in some places to finish in the top four.
It is likely the Reds will qualify for the Champions League; it is likely they will do so finishing in fourth.
It is likely, therefore, Liverpool will face a play-off to reach the Champions League group stage – though it is yet to be determined whether they would be seeded or unseeded.
Here is how it works – and what results the Reds will be hoping for as well as a home win at Anfield.
How does the playoff round work now then?
Let’s ignore the ‘champions’ section of the fourth qualifying round, which will contain the title-winners from nations such as Bulgaria, Belarus, Scotland, Denmark and Greece.
Instead, it is the ‘non-champions’ section which affects Klopp’s side.
There will be 10 teams – five seeded, five unseeded – drawn into five ties, with the winners of those moving into the group stage.
With the Premier League being one of the best leagues in terms of coefficients, Liverpool would receive a bye into the fourth qualifying round.
They would be joined by the fourth-placed teams from Spain and Germany, as well as the third-placed teams from Italy and Portugal.
Where do the other five teams come from?
The previous round – the third qualifying round for ‘non-champions’ – which also involves 10 teams, with five seeded and five unseeded.
They consist of teams from (with finishing position in brackets):
Holland (2nd)
France (3rd)
Ukraine (2nd)
Russia (2nd)
Belgium (2nd)
Czech Republic (2nd)
Turkey (2nd)
Switzerland (2nd)
Romania (2nd)
Greece (2nd)
Who could Liverpool play?
The Premier League is not the only division with uncertainty surrounding it.
Plenty of qualifications spots are yet to be determined, though some leagues have now been decided.
However, as things stand across Europe, these would be the teams in the third qualifying round, with five teams going through.
Ajax (confirmed*)
Nice (confirmed)
Dynamo Kiev (confirmed)
CSKA Moscow
Club Brugge
Viktoria Plzen
Ä°stanbul BaÅŸakÅŸehir
Young Boys (confirmed)
Steaua Bucharest (confirmed)
AEK Athens
*Depending on Europa League final result (see below)
In terms of those who would join Liverpool in the fourth qualifying round:
Sevilla (confirmed)
Napoli
Hoffenheim
Sporting Lisbon (confirmed)
So would Liverpool be seeded or unseeded?
This is where it becomes complicated.
It all depends who would be in the draw with them, as the five seeded sides possess the five highest coefficients.
Of the sides who enter at the fourth qualifying round as things stand, Sevilla and Napoli possess a higher one than Liverpool.
With the leagues as they are around Europe right now, only two clubs holding a higher coefficient than the Reds can progress from the third qualifying round – Ajax and Dynamo Kiev.
Even if those two moved into the final qualifying stage, Jürgen Klopp’s side would find themselves in the top five in terms of coefficients – and therefore seeded.
How would they be unseeded?
If circumstances change in Germany and Russia, mainly. Dortmund are currently third, level on points with Hoffenheim but four goals better in terms of goal difference. If Klopp’s former side were to be relegated into fourth, they would become seeded in the qualifying round.
In Russia, Zenit St Petersburg are one point behind CSKA Moscow. Zenit are higher than Liverpool, while CSKA are lower. If Zenit manage to finish above CSKA in second, it would further lessen the Reds’ chances of being seeded.
In a worst-case scenario, Dortmund finish fourth and Zenit finish second. That would, potentially, see Sevilla, Dortmund and Napoli already seeded, with progression from two of Dynamo Kiev, Ajax or Zenit sending Liverpool into the unseeded pot.
Can anything help Liverpool?
With two games of Serie A remaining, Napoli sit a point behind Roma in third. If Napoli were to climb above Roma, the club from the capital would move into the qualifying round.
Their coefficient is worse than Liverpool’s, however, meaning the Reds would be likelier to take one of the seeded spots.
What happens if Ajax win the Europa League?
Good question, and one UEFA seem reticent to answer.
Ajax have a better coefficient than Liverpool and, having finished second in the Eredivisie, will join the Champions League in the third qualifying round.
If they won the Europa League, they would gain automatic entry into the group stages.
Despite reports elsewhere, UEFA have confirmed PSV Eindhoven – the team third in the Netherlands – will NOT take their place.
Instead, the likeliest (but unconfirmed) scenario is Nice are moved from the third qualifying round into the fourth.
The French club, who boast Mario Balotelli in their strike force, have a lower coefficient than Liverpool, helping the Reds’ hopes further of being seeded.
'Beat Arsenal for us please Ronald'
So what games will Liverpool be watching this week? (Desired winners in bold)
Rubin Kazan v CSKA Moscow (Wednesday)
Zenit v FC Krasnodar (Wednesday)
Chievo v Roma (Saturday)
Napoli v Fiorentina (Saturday)
Dortmund v Werder Bremen (Saturday)
Hoffenheim v Augsburg (Saturday)
CSKA Moscow v Anzhi (Sunday)
Lokomotiv Moscow v Zenit (Sunday)
Liverpool v Middlesbrough (Sunday)
Arsenal v Everton (Sunday)
