The Run In - 2016-17

The CL can allocate 5 spots to the EPL but not 6.

Our ECQ chances are unaffected by what the mancs do in Europe. It's nothing to do with us. Emotions of course is a different matter.

They are affected if we finish 4th, and Leicester win the European Cup. Though it's about as likely atm, as making up a 9 goal difference to Manchester City over 2 games, as we once had to.

If we hadn't won today I would have thought that could have been it.

As it is Arsenal and Man Utd have to win both of their two games in hand to put us into 6th.   A little bit of pressure on them now although you would fancy one of them to manage that feat.

I don't think a draw at Man City would be the worst result in the world - they've all got to take points off each other in the final 10/11 games.

We should get a total of at least 70 points from here now.

Just saw the table, for us to drop down to 6th, ManU would have to beat the both teams by a total of 9 goals . 1 of them includes Southampton. Can't see it happening.

Just had a look at the table.

All teams in the top 6 have at least one game in hand over us.

The two teams below us (Munts, Arsenal), have two games in hand over us.

We are four points ahead of the Munts and one behind Citeh, who have a game in hand over us.

While we face a Merseyside derby against Everton next, the Munts have WBA. I know on paper they have a tougher run-in but at the moment, with the impending fixtures to boot we look in an ominous position.

Practically all our games are must win games, especially the derby!

Just had a look at the table.

All teams in the top 6 have at least one game in hand over us.

The two teams below us (Munts, Arsenal), have two games in hand over us.

We are four points ahead of the Munts and one behind Citeh, who have a game in hand over us.

While we face a Merseyside derby against Everton next, the Munts have WBA. I know on paper they have a tougher run-in but at the moment, with the impending fixtures to boot we look in an ominous position.

Practically all our games are must win games, especially the derby!

Very tight for sure

But if you'd have offered me this scenario back in August, I'd have taken it

United still have to play the following and out of that I can see a win against the Bitters, maybe a draw against the Chavs.

Everton (H)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (A)
Spurs (A)
City (A)

Arsenal have the following and I can't see them getting much, maybe a draw against Utd.

City (H)
Spurs (A)
United (H)

The only decent team we have left is the Bitters at home. So assuming we are over our tendency to drop points against the Sh*te we should have no excuses not getting Top 4.

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United still have to play the following and out of that I can see a win against the Bitters, maybe a draw against the Chavs.

Everton (H)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (A)
Spurs (A)
City (A)

Arsenal have the following and I can't see them getting much, maybe a draw against Utd.

City (H)
Spurs (A)
United (H)

The only decent team we have left is the Bitters at home. So assuming we are over our tendency to drop points against the Sh*te we should have no excuses not getting Top 4.

Easier said than done mate. I would prefer to play top 6 for next 9 matches for sure.

I am dreading that we will drop points against one of these 'survival in PL' teams.

Easier said than done mate. I would prefer to play top 6 for next 9 matches for sure.

I am dreading that we will drop points against one of these 'survival in PL' teams.

But that is the thing, none of the teams we have left will be in the relegation battle apart from Middlesborough on the final day and by then I think it will all be decided anyway. Our run in is far far easier than Utd's remember that one the games that Citeh and Utd have in hand is against each other, they can't both pick up maximum points.

I think that unless we revert back to January form then we really should be able to get at least 4th if not 3rd in the table. From what I've seen the last few games I think we are getting back into our stride and if we can beat the bitters then we should be ok.

So if we finish 4th (which I think we are bound to), will we be surely in Qf for the CL or will we depend on what ManU or Lei do in the Europeans?

So if we finish 4th (which I think we are bound to), will we be surely in Qf for the CL or will we depend on what ManU or Lei do in the Europeans?

Need both Mancs and Leicester to win the Cups for us to miss out.

I am dreading that we will drop points against one of these 'survival in PL' teams.

We most certainly will drop points. There's very little chance that we will win all 9 of our games but United, Arsenal AND City can't all win their matches either.  There will be a minimum 9 points dropped between them in those 3 head to head matches and it could be as high as 12 points dropped.

Calculators at the ready!

Need both Mancs and Leicester to win the Cups for us to miss out.

I thought if the scum won the europa league that the 4th CL spot would go to them.

https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/843555648197615619

https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/843555648197615619

That graph looks way off for a normal distribution graph. Numbers are totally wrong too.

That graph looks way off for a normal distribution graph. Numbers are totally wrong too.

It's a probability indicator

The numbers on the bottom correlate to the number of points we end the season on and the % = the chance that would give us when all fixtures have been played. So in that case I'd guess the matches where both teams in the top 6 have to play each other have been accounted for.

I've personally been astonished by how high scoring the top 4 teams have been and that there's even a slim (11%) chance that 2 points per game (76 total) might not see you in the top 4 is surely unprecedented?

Edit: Just checked now and over the previous 12 seasons 76 points would have got you top 4 every year bar one 13/14 season but 5th was only 72 so even then if we assume that one of the top 4 was 76 rather than 79 it would have also if you can follow that logic .

Anyway 4th place finish points for previous seasons were as follows:

66
70
79 - 7 points clear of 5th
73
69
68
70
72
76 - 11 points clear of 5th
68
67
61

Need both Mancs and Leicester to win the Cups for us to miss out.

Our ECQ chances are unaffected by what the mancs do in Europe. It's nothing to do with us.

They are affected if we finish 4th, and Leicester win the European Cup.

If last year is anything to go by, I might have to write that out a few more times by season's end.

Anyway 4th place finish points for previous seasons were as follows:

66
70
79 - 7 points clear of 5th
73
69
68
70
72
76 - 11 points clear of 5th
68
67
61

Yep - definitely going to be a big score required for 4th this season.  Man United have spent most of the season in 6th and they've only lost 3 games so that goes to show how much more competitive it's been for the 'runners up' club.

We now have a great chance of finishing top 3 I reckon, we have came out on top of the top 6 mini league, so lets now finish strongly and start smashing the other teams.

The rest of the top 6 will take points of each other, so each week we should be able to keep our place in the top 4, so long as we keep winning or at least not lose.

I'm feeling confident, as some of our players like coutinho have been off form or injured, touch wood after International break his form in particular will improve and help drive us onto a strong finish.

I do worry about those pesky Mancs sneaking into top 4 :-( , they have been on a very good run and does not seem like ending, maybe all the games they are playing will make them drop some points in the league.

Reckon about 75 points should do it, that is 19 points from the last 30.

Sorry realised only 9 games to play, that is 27 points maximum. My mistake in the above post.

We now have a great chance of finishing top 3 I reckon, we have came out on top of the top 6 mini league, so lets now finish strongly and start smashing the other teams.

The rest of the top 6 will take points of each other, so each week we should be able to keep our place in the top 4, so long as we keep winning or at least not lose.

I'm feeling confident, as some of our players like coutinho have been off form or injured, touch wood after International break his form in particular will improve and help drive us onto a strong finish.

I do worry about those pesky Mancs sneaking into top 4 :-( , they have been on a very good run and does not seem like ending, maybe all the games they are playing will make them drop some points in the league.

Sooner or later even Manure's luck has to run out, I've yet to be impressed by them this season, even against Middlesborough, who were utter sh*te, they looked fragile. They will drop points, we just have to make sure we drop less than them and Arsenal and considering the run-in for all 3 teams we really should be able to.

Sooner or later even Manure's luck has to run out, I've yet to be impressed by them this season, even against Middlesborough, who were utter sh*te, they looked fragile. They will drop points, we just have to make sure we drop less than them and Arsenal and considering the run-in for all 3 teams we really should be able to.

Problem with the mancs is they are picking up many points while playing gash.

United are going to play 9 games in the month of April. Then after that they're going to Spurs and Arsenal. I am not worried about them that much.

Interesting this: www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/plot-liverpools-road-europe-fixture-12776103

I did it and we end up like this:

1 Chelsea - 91
2 Man City - 83
3 Spurs - 83
4 Liverpool - 79
5 Arsenal - 75
6 Man Utd - 74
7 Everton - 63