The goalkeeper situation

Wasn’t a better keeper than Pepe the day he walked into the club and isn’t now.

Simples.

Agree with that and since Mig arrived our weakness in the air has been our achilles heel. Who would you rather go up against...the under nourished looking Mig or the bulk of Pepe. Probably not a fair comparison but I and many others said at the time Mig arrived that he would struggle to dominate the box.

I could swear there was already a thread about this subject created this season, but I did a few searches and could not find any. If there is one and I'm just a terrible searcher, I apologise.

Well, the goalkeeper situation. One of the most discussed topics by Liverpool fans. No one is happy - nothing new to see here.

However, today I came across some interesting stats which I thought worth sharing. Here they go:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946848173624119296

How to read this: the most important column is the last one, which basically tells us if, based on the model built by the author, a goalkeeper is underperforming (below 100%), just about average (100% or thereabouts) or overperforming (significantly above 100%).

Some of you may be familiar with an increasingly popular metric called Expected Goals (expG for short). Through the analysis of significant amounts of shots data, these models assign a "expected goal" value to each shot based on parameters such as shot location (ex: the more central and closer to goal, greater the percentage of scoring) and may also include other factors, ie game state (if a team is winning, drawing or losing, and by how much), type of pass leading to the shot (a long one, a short one, a cross, etc), and many others. There are many different Expected Goals models around the internet, and each may be slightly different depending on the variables under consideration. None of them are perfect, of course, but the resulting data can generate some interesting insights.

The idea is similar for the PostShotxG stat in the table above, which can give us an idea of how a goalkeeper is faring based on the quality of the shots he has faced - if he has conceded fewer goals than what on average is scored in those situations, performed just to expectation or is really above average. As the author himself explains:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947101574173790208

So coming back to the first tweet, what this table is showing is that, based on that specific model, the last time a Liverpool goalkeeper actually saved more shots on target than expected was 2010, and even so only by a small margin. The following two years, Reina slightly underperformed (again, by that metric), but what is even more telling is that, even in his worst years, his Save Efficiency % is still higher than that of any other LFC goalkeeper ever since.

We can also take a look at Simon Mignolet's career numbers:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947193082679889921

And Loris Karius:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947210546260135938

By comparison, we can take a look at truly world class goalkeepers:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947082520021143552

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946685956064759808

As the author himself has suggested, there are factors which the model does not explain or adjusts for - such as the fact that Mignolet most likely had more protection at a defensive minded Sunderland than at an open, attacking Liverpool, and this affects his numbers. This is why numbers like that of Neuer for an attacking Bayern side are probably even more formidable.

However, as interesting as they are, the model and the tweets above are solely concerned with shots. It has nothing to say on other aspects of a goalkeeper's performance, such as the ability to catch crosses, to do a sweeping role, to distribute the ball quickly and effectively, among others - some of which are of increasing importance in today's game, and also in how Liverpool FC plays.

In pretty much all of those, Pepe Reina was also vastly superior to his successors (from my own observations, not that of any particular model). Personally, what I find most mystifying is why a manager like Brendan Rodgers, who was always insistent on the need to build from the back, and demanded a sort of technical quality from his defenders that many other managers don't, switched a natural "sweeper keeper" such as Reina for one so inept with the ball on his feet, and so brutally indecisive with the ball in his hands that he constantly slows play down like Mignolet. I really cannot remember any other keeper to have been punished by that 6 seconds rule, and he wasn't even trying to waste time!

One could also argue that a similar logic applies to Klopp, who likes his players to be comfortable on the ball and be fast and precise in transitions. Simon Mignolet and "heavy metal football" could not be further apart.

This situation seriously needs sorting, and very soon. Let us not forget that Karius, despite being relatively young, was brought to the club expected to be first choice. He was given the number 1 shirt on arrival and started the first few games of the 16/17 season. It was only due to his poor performances that he later became confined to the bench. This suggests to me that Klopp has identified the need to upgrade on Mignolet quite a while ago, but as things have not turned out as he expected, he's since refused to look for solutions in the transfer market again.

For me, I feel like the boss has either to stick with Karius and give him a chance to prove himself until the end of the season, or look to purchase a new goalkeeper as soon as possible. Mignolet has been long enough at the club to show he's not a good fit for us - both as a shot stopper and in terms of style of play. Watching his kicks live from the stadium probably reduced my life expectancy by a few days, weeks or months.

If we have the funds to spend heavily, there are very few keepers (if any) that we could reasonably expect to attract who are better than this man:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946687832084697088

Oblak is only 24 years old (soon to be 25) and could own the position for many years to come.

But there are also other quality goalkeepers out there. One of my personal favourites is Alisson - he's been getting better and better lately, and more comfortable on the ball.

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947189661037887488

Or if Jürgen would like to consider another German GK:

https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947222738044891142

Plus, there are other interesting goalkeepers out there which this guy hasn't posted any data about, but which I believe would also be an upgrade on what we currently have, such as Pavlenka (Werder Bremen), Strakosha (Lazio), etc. We have just addressed one major issue in central defence; let's now please address a longstanding issue between the sticks.

TL;DR version: please make Mignolet history.

I’m drunk as sh*t on my way back from NYEW fuckinh stupid sh*t in Downton adelaidnebuy just a snyednto day how much I’m appreciate you Diego. You’re one smartnsone or a birch and this is good shut. Genuinely can’t wait until me aent. The wife catch up with you for a beer and some footy chat sometime soon, can put it on the record that Andrea is a big fan as i an of your twitter feed.

Happy fuckingadadf new year counts. Love yaw fucks🤙🏽

I’m drunk as sh*t on my way back from NYEW fuckinh stupid sh*t in Downton adelaidnebuy just a snyednto day how much I’m appreciate you Diego. You’re one smartnsone or a birch and this is good shut. Genuinely can’t wait until me aent. The wife catch up with you for a beer and some footy chat sometime soon, can put it on the record that Andrea is a big fan as i an of your twitter feed.

Happy fuckingadadf new year counts. Love yaw fucks🤙🏽

31st December, 2017 and this is post of the year!

I’m drunk as sh*t on my way back from NYEW fuckinh stupid sh*t in Downton adelaidnebuy just a snyednto day how much I’m appreciate you Diego. You’re one smartnsone or a birch and this is good shut. Genuinely can’t wait until me aent. The wife catch up with you for a beer and some footy chat sometime soon, can put it on the record that Andrea is a big fan as i an of your twitter feed.

Happy fuckingadadf new year counts. Love yaw fucks🤙🏽

Hahahahahaha what a brilliant drunk post, I've missed some of them in this forum! This is very flattering and the appreciation is mutual, thank you very much.

I’m drunk as sh*t on my way back from NYEW fuckinh stupid sh*t in Downton adelaidnebuy just a snyednto day how much I’m appreciate you Diego. You’re one smartnsone or a birch and this is good shut. Genuinely can’t wait until me aent. The wife catch up with you for a beer and some footy chat sometime soon, can put it on the record that Andrea is a big fan as i an of your twitter feed.

Happy fuckingadadf new year counts. Love yaw fucks🤙🏽

Happy new year mate, the lengths some people will go to for a few likes

Has Migs been dropped now or is just a case again of 'resting' him due to the amount of games? Just wondering if Klopp has clarified his position on it?

I think Klopp has announced that Mignolet starts against Burnley

I know he's been debated about quite often on these boards but how much responsibility do you think John Achterberg takes when it comes to the goalkeeping problem as Bruce G alluded to a couple of years ago?

Or does that argument just distract from the real problem ie the quality of Mignolet as a goalkeeper?

I don't know, or to be more precise, I don't know how any of us could possibly know - Bruce included!

For all I know, he might be a brilliant coach given poor human resources to work with, or he might indeed be part of the problem. Truth is his performance is not observable by us, only the coaching staff and Jürgen himself are able to observe what Achterberg offers.

I'm always wary of bashing the work of club staff whose contributions we can't really observe, as it is potentially very unfair... even the likes of Michael Edwards I try to avoid commenting, as we lack the details of the conditions under which he performs his work. In those cases (such as perceived incompetence in the transfer market) I normally blame the club as a whole (we seem to be doing better now on that front, though!)

I think Klopp has announced that Mignolet starts against Burnley

You see, that's part of the problem as well. How is Karius ever to settle if he's dropped in for one game once a blue moon? Mignolet has had his chance a hundred times over so by rights, Karius should be given until the end of the season to explain why we shouldn't go out and buy a new top class goal keeper.

You see, that's part of the problem as well. How is Karius ever to settle if he's dropped in for one game once a blue moon? Mignolet has had his chance a hundred times over so by rights, Karius should be given until the end of the season to explain why we shouldn't go out and buy a new top class goal keeper.

Agreed. We either make a move for a new keeper now in January (which sounds unlikely to me) or give Karius a chance to prove himself. He can do no worse than Mignolet at this point.

Agreed. We either make a move for a new keeper now in January (which sounds unlikely to me) or give Karius a chance to prove himself. He can do no worse than Mignolet at this point.

Looks like Migs to start vs Burnley
The only reason I can think of why Jürgen would not give Karius a run is that he trusts Karius less than Mignolet. There's still a lot to play for this season, and though personally I'd like to see Karius come in, for what other reason would Jürgen not play him.
Also, if it's in Jürgen's mind to replace Migs, that would be another reason to give Karius a run, see if he's up to it - given a decision is already made on Migs (can only hope to F**k in his head he has decided to replace Migs eventually)

Don't think Jürgen has a 'blind spot' for Migs, it can only be he doesn't trust his backups either.

I’d agree with you mate, in Klopp trusting Karius less than Mignolet, if Karius wasn’t playing CL, I don’t really understand that since GK is not a position that usually requires rotation.

I’d agree with you mate, in Klopp trusting Karius less than Mignolet, if Karius wasn’t playing CL, I don’t really understand that since GK is not a position that usually requires rotation.

Good point about the CL.
And agree that GK is not ideal position to rotate.
Not easy trying to understand the logic tbh.

We either make a move for a new keeper now in January (which sounds unlikely to me)...

Yes. No plan B transfers for Jürgen. Keep the money, keep the money, keep the money then bam! World class keeper and Migs can F**k right off.

Looks like Migs to start vs Burnley
The only reason I can think of why Jürgen would not give Karius a run is that he trusts Karius less than Mignolet. There's still a lot to play for this season, and though personally I'd like to see Karius come in, for what other reason would Jürgen not play him.
Also, if it's in Jürgen's mind to replace Migs, that would be another reason to give Karius a run, see if he's up to it - given a decision is already made on Migs (can only hope to f**k in his head he has decided to replace Migs eventually)

Don't think Jürgen has a 'blind spot' for Migs, it can only be he doesn't trust his backups either.

Whatever the reason he needs to be utterly ruthless and replace them as soon as we are able, and if that replacement doesn't work out immediately, none of this training ground coaching bollocks, get rid, get someone else in. This is one area we can ill afford to be trying to polish turds into diamonds in.

Great OP Diego.

For me we should have started the season with Markus and given him the time to settle into the side.

Mignolet is a decent keeper but clearly isn't going to improve and keeps making the same mistakes over and over again.

Kraus isn't perfect but his style is much more progressive and more in tune with how we play football.

Great OP, and some really great stats.

Migs stats are interesting - I am pretty sure that at the time I was ok with his signing and his Sunderland figures kind of bear that out.

Oblak is interesting, because Athletico certainly play a much more structured and defensive formation than us (as did Sunderland).

One thing is certain, and that is our current pair do make more mistakes than most, and we all agree that there are better out there.  However I will be very surprised to see a new keeper in Jan.

Klopp has a way of being cryptic and playing his cards close to his chest. I can't imagine he is unaware/unwilling to come to terms with our GK weakness and for that reason I wouldn't be surprised to wake up one day and find that we have signed Kevin Trapp, Jan Oblak or someone else Klopp has said "yes ok, this is who I want, make it happen".

Our defence has improved, we are having far less chances created against us, and even still we conceed too many

Mignolet has the worst shot to save percentage in the  league

He has let in as many goals as he has saved shots

Take one clear recent goal.
Xhaka against Arsenal, the defence shifted them that the only thing was a speculative 35 yard shot... what happens? Smoke for hands let's it through him

I'd give the game up if you think he's a good keeper.
Decent.. yeah, but if we want to win things we need better than decent

This

I really liked Mignotet when he was at Sunderland  I was hoping that he will gain experience and become a really good goalkeeper for us.The problem  I am having with him is that  he lacks  confidence  and this causes  him to make poor decisions and stupid  mistakes ,and our defence  have been poor  which have even put pressure  on  him.Kop must buy another  goalkeeper at the moment  Karius is not better than Mignotet.

Great OP, Diego. I'm going to try and write my thoughts down as organised as possible, haha. There's so much I want to say. I don't really know where to start.

First off, the goalkeeper position is probably the hardest to put down in numbers. There's so many variables to the numbers that they never really tell the full story. For example the saves / goal ratio is probably one of the silliest statistics to judge a goalkeeper on in my opinion.

I'm familiar with the xG metric and I recently read some statistics about the goalkeepers so far in the PL, using the xG metric combined with a few other ones. Surprisingly enough, quite a few goalkeepers who people would like to see Mignolet replaced with, are all performing worse than Mignolet this season. Schmeichel, Butland, Hart and Pickford (not entirely sure) were all below Mignolet. No coincidence seeing as the four of them have conceded quite a few goals so far this season. That same spreadsheet had De Gea and Pope as top performers so far this season, so checks out.

Some interesting numbers there and I have a few questions and thoughts on them. De Gea, Oblak, Pope. All three of them have stellar statistics this season (in the case of DDG and JO multiple seasons). All three of the teams these goalkeepers play for, play a pretty defensive style of football. We've seen the effect on the statistics when teams protect their goalkeepers (Compare Mignolet at Sunderland to Mignolet at Liverpool). All three of them face (not sure on Oblak) high volumes of shots. Does the metric take an average xG of each shot to goals conceded or does it add up all xG of the shots to goals conceded. If it's the latter, that explains some of the numbers they are putting up. I don't rate Pope at all, but he makes a lot of saves and that kind of messes up his numbers. The only exception here is Neuer, of who we would all agree was (pre-injury) the best goalkeeper in the world?

Example this season: De Gea vs Arsenal. A massive 15 saves. I watched a compilation of all of them. How many do you think were gamechanging saves? In my opinion, only 3 (which is still very good) out of 15. The rest of the saves were from a big distance or difficult angles to score from. Yet he did make 15 saves (adding up all the xG) and conceded only 1 goal, so his numbers would be amazing, even though he really only made three big saves. I'm not denying that De Gea is arguably one of the best, if not the best goalkeeper(s) around. Just to show how big volumes of saves mess up the stats, even when you take into account the xG of every shot.

It's the same story for Pope. Burnley fill up the middle of the pitch and their players put in a lot of tackles / blocks from angled shots. They allow opposition to take low % shots from outside the box or from difficult angles (look at our game there last season). Both categories of shots are relatively easy to save. Result is that Pope has a high amount of saves, a high save / xG and few goals conceded. Put Pope in goal for Arsenal, City or us and watch his numbers fall down, he's an average goalkeeper, just like Heaton, who is given a lot of protection and faces high volumes of low % shots. On the rare occasion teams do slice through the Burnley defence (City and Spurs more recently), he barely saves any of the high % shots / big chances.

Oblak is also a phenomenal goalkeeper. Yet he is also given a lot of protection in the way that Atletico play. It would be very interesting to see his numbers for Czech Republic compared to his numbers for Atletico Madrid. Are they about the same? Or would we see a big drop in his %'s because he is playing with less protection / for a weaker team?

I like Karius' numbers from Mainz. Open league, open style of play in a midtable team, still putting up good numbers. I still think he can be our longterm #1 if given the chance. You say he was given the number 1 shirt on arrival and started the first few games of the 16/17 season and it was only due to his poor performances that he later became confined to the bench. That's not entirely true though?

He came in in pre-season and looked pretty good. He was indeed given the #1 jersey and probably would've started the season, had it not been for a broken hand and Mignolet starting the season. First chance Klopp had, he put Karius in goal over Mignolet. Then he had a decent run right op until that Bournemouth game where the public opinion forced Klopp's hand and there was no other option than taking him out. This season he's playing high profile (not the best opposition) games in the Champion's League and Klopp is playing him in the league at every single opportunity and playing it off as "rotation", something he (to my knowledge) never did at Dortmund. Either he changed his mind about goalkeeper rotation or he's trying to give Karius as many minutes as possible without completely shutting out Mignolet and going back on the agreement they had this summer.

People say he doesn't trust him? I say he does and is protecting him. Other than the Spartak freekick he hasn't disappointed at all and it's clear what he can offer us in terms of his strenghts. Not saying there's not better out there right now, but I can see him be our #1 next season.

As for Mignolet, put him in that Burnley side and he'll put up some nice numbers too, just like he did at Sunderland.

I would sure hope that Klopp doesn’t make personnel decisions based on public opinion unless I’m reading you wrong Danz....

I would sure hope that Klopp doesn’t make personnel decisions based on public opinion unless I’m reading you wrong Danz....

Probably should've worded it differently. He didn't drop Karius just because he had one poor game. He did have a poor game and he took him out because both the media (who were absolutely brutal) and the fans' reaction was way over the top. Do you think it would have been a good idea to keep a goalkeeper that young in the side when both the media and the fans are analysing his every step because they hoped he'd immediately put the world on fire after years of Mignolet? Wether we like it or not, I think sometimes managers do make choices with the public opinion in the back of their head. Not solely based on that, but I think it's what forced Klopp to take him out at that specific moment.

There are plenty examples of similar situations with other goalkeepers. Ferguson did the exact same to De Gea at United. Came in, had some poor games, the media and fans were all over him and he took him out for Lindegaard. (Perhaps Keith can fill us in on that one, not entirely sure) Same happened to Lloris at Spurs in his first season if I recall correctly. Brad Friedel was given a run of games then.

Same happened to Ter Stegen at Barcelona when he first came in. That actually is a very, very similar situation to what we are seeing right now with Karius and Mignolet. Ter Stegen didn't look good when he first started at Barcelona. After some time he was taken out and Bravo came back in.

In his first season there he played 8 games for Barcelona (pretty similar to Karius with us last season). His second season he played 7 league games, 6 cup games and 13 European games (again, look how similar that is to Karius). Ter Stegen was also rotating with Bravo for the CL games and he played the occasional league game. His third season, Bravo was binned off and Ter Stegen was #1. I think (I hope) we're going to see a very similar thing happen with us and with Karius.

https://twitter.com/xxx/status/948537263008419840

I like it