https://twitter.com/WC_LFC_Torres/status/1018690630992658432Obviously the links with Alisson to Liverpool are what prompted me to make this thread. But as it is entirely possible he also ends up at either Real or Chelsea next year, this will be written primarily with that idea in mind. The idea is that this thread can be read by any fan of any fanbase and learn something about Alisson. So if he goes to Chelsea, Chelsea fans can read this thread to learn about him and get hyped, just like Liverpool fans should he go to Liverpool.
Weâll start with the basics: Name: Alisson Becker Age: 25 Height: 191cm (6â3â) Weight: 91kg (200 lbs) Nationality: Brazil Apps: 45 Clean Sheets: 20 Saves: 126 GA: 44 Saves per Goal: 2.86 WhoScored Rating: 6.91
Alisson rose into prominence this season after Roma offloaded SzczÄsny to Juve. Since then he has cemented himself as Brazilâs No. 1 ahead of Ederson and attracted interest from across Europe, particularly from Real Madrid, Liverpool, and Chelsea.
So what makes this keeper so special? Why are Roma able to slap a âŹ80m price tag on a keeper whoâs had one good season, and clubs are actually viewing it as only marginally overpriced? For that, letâs look at some stats, and discuss what makes Alisson so desirable.
Keepers are slowly becoming more utilized in build up play and counter attacks than they have been in seasons past. A keeper thatâs good with their feet means not only that they wonât crumble under pressure from a striker, but also can pick out passes from the back. Ederson was picked out by Pep for this very reason. While his ability as a keeper is great, itâs not his shot stopping ability that caught Pepâs attention, it was his ability on the ball. Therefore, weâll use Ederson as the standard to compare against in terms of distribution.
For the next few tweets in this thread, please refer to the graphic below. It should be noted that this graphic was made with a couple months still to play in the season, but as neither of them dropped off in quality during that remaining time it is still valid.
As you can see, Ederson completes a higher percentage of his overall and forward passes, but as we go up the pitch, thatâll change. That said, both keepers are exceptional with their feet. In fact for context on just how good, letâs compare them to some other keepers as well.
No other starting PL keeper completes more than 66.9% of forward passes (Tottenhamâs Hugo Lloris). No other Serie A keeper tops 73.6% (Interâs Samir Handanovic). Manuel Neuer came in at 70.5% in 2016/17. Oblak completed only 31% of forward passes this season, down from 44.4% in 2016/17, but he tends not to play short balls, which transitions us into a new level of specificity with Alisson/Ederson.
We see here that, despite Ederson attempting more passes into the final third, Alisson distinguishes himself notably more up the pitch. He attempts more long passes (beyond 34 metres) and is considerably more successful with them.
Oblak attempted 340 long passes but only connected on 34.1% with 49 toward the final third at 14.3%. De Gea frequently sends the ball long (435 attempts) but more often than not misses (40.5% success), same when going toward the final third (98 attempts, 20.4%)
This strength in distribution is a very key selling point for any top club. With Liverpool and Real both enjoying a fair amount of possession each game, as well as a strong counter-attacking style, Alissonâs ability to put the ball down field quick is invaluable.
Imagine Alisson claiming a corner then quickly putting the ball upfield for Mane/Salah or Bale to take and counter with speed. As CBâs usually push up on corners, this leaves them highly prone to counters. An accurate punt from Alisson could take 8+ players out of the equation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGmeDyTiuPMYou get the point, Alissonâs distribution is insane.
But what about his shot stopping ability?Alisson was rated as the best goalkeeper in Europe last season by WhoScored Squawka rated him as the second best keeper in the world, only behind Ter Stegen But why? Combined with the distribution mentioned earlier, Alisson is an exceptional shot stopper. His save rate of 80.1% was the highest in Serie A, and second highest in Europe behind only Jan Oblak at 85.8%. Only Juventus (24) conceded fewer league goals than Roma (28) in Serie A.
No goalkeeper kept more clean sheets than Alisson (17) in Serie A and he ranked in the top 10 for saves (107) But of course some are (understandably) not convinced by save rate alone. As it doesnât say anything about the types of shots they faced. For this we look at Expected Goals Against (xGA) vs Goals Against (GA) Expected goals (xG) are computed by identifying the position a shot was taken from and calculating the likelihood that a player would score from that position. This same metric is used to measure xGA.
Therefore, the difference between actual goals against (GA) and xGA effectively measures how well a goalie stopped shots in a season. In other words, if a keeper concedes as many goals as he is expected, then he saved all the shots he was expected to save. With xGA vs GA we are hoping to figure out if Alisson is not only making the saves he is expected to make, but also if he is making the saves heâs NOT expected to make.
Amazingly, Alisson outperformed his xGA in 30 of the 37 games this season, combining for a total of 9.46 fewer goals against than we would expect with a typical keeper. So what if Roma conceded all the goals they were expected to concede as they would with a typical keeper?
If Roma conceded all their xGA as they would with a keeper who makes all the saves a keeper should make, theyâd finish 11 points lower in the table, in 6th. The phrase â(insert World Class keeper) is probably worth 10+ points a seasonâ is literal with Alisson. This isnât even taking into account Alissonâs impact on corners where he has a 90% claim success rate, or his ability as a sweeper keeper in which he prevents several chances from ever including a shot on target at all.
Itâs save to say that at the age of only 25, and this being Alissonâs first true test at the top level, he will only improve with age. His looks arenât bad for marketing either
From here I will talk my completely subjective observations of him based on my experience in watching him play in Serie A. I will also then speak specifically on why I think Liverpool want him toward the end, so if Chelsea/Madrid/Neutral fans stop at that point itâs cool. His reflexes are some of the best Iâve seen in a long time, maybe ever. While I am in no way saying he is better than De Gea, his reflexes very much do remind me of DDGâs.
If there is a downside to him itâs that he does have a tendency to sometimes spill the ball back into play, but no more than most keepers and his insane ability to get up and make double saves makes up for it.
LFC CUT-OFF POINT: I think the reason Klopp prefers him to Oblak (other than price) is that he fits Liverpoolâs style of play much better. Heâs a sweeper keeper thatâs good with putting balls down range fast for counter attacks, and plays in a similar defensive system to ours.
Alisson signing for Liverpool would make them title challengers. No doubt. Since VVDâs debut Liverpool have conceded at a rate of 0.66 GA per game. That equates to only 25 over a full season. That was with Karius as GK and Henderson as DM.
Imagine that defensive form, give VVD a preseason, throw Fabinho/Keita and Alisson in there, and youâre realistically looking at conceding less than 20 goals a season
Assuming Liverpoolâs addition of Keita and Fekir doesnât improve us offensively at all, and we score the exact same amount of goals at 84. And then concede letâs say, ~20 goals. Thatâs a G/D of 64...Chelsea walked away with the league in 2016/17 with a G/D of 52
But of course thereâs every reason to believe we will improve offensively. That G/D could easily be 70+. A strong midfield like that, and a goalkeeper like Alisson turns losses/draws into wins. It wins titles. And Liverpool fans should be excited about it.
