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      Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study

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      sore monad
      • Forum Ian Callaghan
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      Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Aug 07, 2018 11:04:18 am
      https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45087444


      Quote

      Liverpool were the 'unluckiest' team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were the 'luckiest', new research claims.

      The Reds dropped 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards, says a study conducted by ESPN, Intel and the University of Bath.

      It says United gained six points over incidents that went in their favour.

      Manchester City remain top in a new simulated table accounting for 'luck'.

      However, the study found Huddersfield should have been relegated instead of Stoke when 'incorrect' refereeing decisions were taken into account.

      It also found Brighton would have finished six places higher - moving up to ninth and earning an extra £11.5m in prize money on their return to the top flight.

      Conversely, Leicester would have finished 14th instead of ninth, ending the season with £9.7m less in prize money.

      Fourth-placed Liverpool would have swapped with second-placed United, and champions City fallen three points short of their 100 mark.

      How did the 'Luck Index' work?
      A research team collaborated with ex-Premier League referee Peter Walton, analysing footage from every game of the 2017-18 Premier League season and watching for:

      Goals that should have been disallowed
      Incorrectly disallowed goals
      Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)
      Penalties that were not awarded but should have been
      Incorrect red-card decisions
      Red-card incidents that were missed
      Goals scored after injury time overran
      Deflected goals
      Once incidents had been indentified, an alternative outcome of the affected matches was predicted, using a model that also considered factors including team strength, form, and home advantage.

      For example: in Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Manchester United at Anfield on 14 October, the study concluded Jürgen Klopp's side should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute, and the new simulated scoreline was a 1-0 victory for the home side.

      Once the process was completed, the Premier League table was redrawn to reflect the new simulated results.

      Premier League table 17-18      'Luck Index' simulated table 17-18   
      Manchester City   100   Manchester City   97
      Manchester United   81   Liverpool   87
      Tottenham   77   Tottenham   77
      Liverpool   75   Manchester United   75
      Chelsea   70   Arsenal   71
      Arsenal   63   Chelsea   70
      Burnley   54   Burnley   50
      Everton   49   Newcastle   48
      Leicester   47   Brighton   46
      Newcastle   44   Everton   44
      Crystal Palace   44   Crystal Palace   42
      Bournemouth   44   West Ham   41
      West Ham   42   Watford   41
      Watford   41   Leicester   40
      Brighton   40   Southampton   40
      Huddersfield   37   Bournemouth   38
      Southampton   36   Stoke   37
      Swansea   33   Huddersfield   37
      Stoke   33   Swansea   34
      West Brom   31   West Brom   33
      The research team analysed over 150 incidents and also found:

      Leicester scored three goals after injury time overran - more than any other side.
      Huddersfield's John Smith's Stadium saw the most deflected goals - five. Two of those worked in the Terriers' favour.
      Matt Ritchie was the 'luckiest player'. The Newcastle winger avoided two red cards, while a handball in the box against Leicester went unnoticed.
      Assistant Professor Thomas Curran from the University of Bath said each game was simulated "thousands of times to model how it should have turned out".

      He said the project was "one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted".

      Former referee Walton added: "The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.

      "With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds."

      Now there's a shock.
      vulcan_red
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #1: Aug 07, 2018 11:19:24 am
      lucks got nothing to do with it
      Harrisimo
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #2: Aug 07, 2018 11:31:08 am
      Said VAR would benefit us by about 6-9 points. These figures out today showing we have been done out of 9-12 points is no surprise. I think if this type of survey/study was carried out over the past 10 years, it would've shown we've been cheated out of 30-40 points or more.

      It would've also shown the blatant prejudice shown in favour of Mancheater United. These figures are the best argument so far, that show VAR is needed to straighten out the prejudice against us. And that smaller clubs will get fair decisions against the top teams.

      Var not being introduced this season will see the cheating against us continue.
      skamp
      • Forum David Johnson
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #3: Aug 07, 2018 12:15:07 pm
      Who cares about this stuff?  Most of the content is subjective!

      Let's not play the victim for every decision that goes against us; make us look like a bunch of whiners!
      FATKOPITE10
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #4: Aug 07, 2018 12:19:16 pm
      Someone with too much time on their hands
      Harrisimo
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #5: Aug 07, 2018 12:37:08 pm
      Who cares about this stuff?  Most of the content is subjective!

      Let's not play the victim for every decision that goes against us; make us look like a bunch of whiners!

      Might as well say VAR is a waste of time because the main reason VAR was given any consideration in the first place was to eliminate bad decisions. This study shows we have been on the wrong end of numerous bad decisions.

      At what stage do we ignore the huge disparity between our bad luck and United's good fortune. Taking such a stance is not playing the victim or being self pitying. It's often claimed bad decisions even themselves out in the long run, but this study goes some way to show that bad decisions don't level out. And that there is some justification in saying " we get cheated out of it far more that the rest"
      heimdall
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #6: Aug 07, 2018 01:14:34 pm
      Who cares about this stuff?  Most of the content is subjective!

      Let's not play the victim for every decision that goes against us; make us look like a bunch of whiners!


      I care, I always care about injustice like this, its simply not fair, it should be a level playing field for all and year in year out Man Utd get favourable decisions and we get the reverse, that is very irritating indeed, not sure how that doesn't irritate you especially when one of the situation noted was when we should have beaten the Manc scum and were robbed of a penalty.
      skamp
      • Forum David Johnson
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #7: Aug 07, 2018 01:27:43 pm
      It's a load of rubbish though, as if Liverpool had been awarded the pen against Utd and scored, that doesn't mean the scoreline would have been 1-0.  Utd would have approached the rest of the match differently and may have scored 2 to win 2-1! 

      And deflected goals and goals awarded after the allotted time added on??!!!  FFS it stinks of desperation.  Let's go all RAWK with alternative league tables showing we should have won the quadruple.

      Let's just do it on the pitch, decisions or not!

      Keith Singleton
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #8: Aug 07, 2018 02:25:44 pm
      Someone with too much time on their hands

      I agree ;D very sad too  :lmao:
      heimdall
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #9: Aug 07, 2018 03:16:16 pm
      It's a load of rubbish though, as if Liverpool had been awarded the pen against Utd and scored, that doesn't mean the scoreline would have been 1-0.  Utd would have approached the rest of the match differently and may have scored 2 to win 2-1! 

      And deflected goals and goals awarded after the allotted time added on??!!!  FFS it stinks of desperation.  Let's go all RAWK with alternative league tables showing we should have won the quadruple.

      Let's just do it on the pitch, decisions or not!



      What do you mean desperation, this was an impartial scientific study of refereeing decisions and the effect they have. By the way if Man Utd had unparked their bus against us we would have scored more than them, I don't need any model to predict that.
      PastorGeek
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #10: Aug 07, 2018 03:37:14 pm
      *pretends to be shocked*
      stuey
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #11: Aug 07, 2018 04:08:27 pm
      It's a load of rubbish though, as if Liverpool had been awarded the pen against Utd and scored, that doesn't mean the scoreline would have been 1-0.  Utd would have approached the rest of the match differently and may have scored 2 to win 2-1! 

      And deflected goals and goals awarded after the allotted time added on??!!!  FFS it stinks of desperation.  Let's go all RAWK with alternative league tables showing we should have won the quadruple.

      Let's just do it on the pitch, decisions or not!


      Fair enough but when the referee takes questionable decisions to new levels there must be scrutiny.
      When players mob referees and harangue them into awarding questionable decisions "doing it on the pitch" means not a jot.

      It has been acknowledged that the statement about the mancs has some meat on the bone,  as well as LFC many other teams will agree that for one reason or the other they do benefit more from refereeing decisions.

      Worth noting that when they played in the CL there was f**king uproar because foreign refs didn't give them the consistent benefit of the doubt.

      5timesacharm
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      Liverpool the Premier League's 'unluckiest' team last season
      Reply #12: Aug 07, 2018 04:36:09 pm
      Liverpool the Premier League's 'unluckiest' team last season
      Liverpool were the unluckiest team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were among the luckiest, new research has revealed.

      According to the ESPN Luck Index, a research project designed and carried out by ESPN, Intel and experts at the University of Bath, Liverpool were denied 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards.

      Conversely, Manchester United gained six points from decisions that went in their favour.
      Using a predictive model which crunched hundreds of data points and working in collaboration with former Premier League referee Peter Walton, a research team analysed footage from every game of the season to see which major incidents should have been overturned.

      Liverpool would have finished second (still 10 points adrift of Manchester City) according to the Luck Index and Manchester United would have finished fourth.

      The study also revealed Huddersfield and not Stoke would have been relegated. Huddersfield would have remained on 37 points while Stoke lost out on four which would have seen them stay up.

      Brighton would have won an additional £11.5m in prize money in their first season in the Premier League by finishing six places higher, while Leicester would have won £9.6m less.


      The study also revealed Huddersfield and not Stoke would have been relegated. Huddersfield would have remained on 37 points while Stoke lost out on four which would have seen them stay up.

      Brighton would have won an additional £11.5m in prize money in their first season in the Premier League by finishing six places higher, while Leicester would have won £9.6m less.

      "The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season, and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage," said University of Bath assistant professor Thomas Curran.

      "Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out - it is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted."

      Former referee Walton added: "The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.

      "With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds."

      http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11669/11464137/liverpool-unluckiest-team-in-premier-league-last-season-according-to-espn-luck-index

      leosc
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      Re: Liverpool the Premier League's 'unluckiest' team last season
      Reply #13: Aug 07, 2018 10:16:49 pm
      Can't say I'm surprised to see that the Mancs are the luckiest team, if you call that luck of course.
      MIRO
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      Re: Liverpool the Premier League's 'unluckiest' team last season
      Reply #14: Aug 07, 2018 10:34:28 pm
      I had posted a full article and transcript in Lets All Laugh At The Mancs thread this morning.
      Magillionare
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #15: Aug 07, 2018 10:50:34 pm
      It's a load of rubbish though, as if Liverpool had been awarded the pen against Utd and scored, that doesn't mean the scoreline would have been 1-0.  Utd would have approached the rest of the match differently and may have scored 2 to win 2-1! 

      And deflected goals and goals awarded after the allotted time added on??!!!  FFS it stinks of desperation.  Let's go all RAWK with alternative league tables showing we should have won the quadruple.

      Let's just do it on the pitch, decisions or not!



      Bollocks.

      Your argument for conjecture can't be more conjecture.

      The correct decisions need to me made or the game will be forever tarnished.

      We do it on the pitch! The officials do not.
      sore monad
      • Forum Ian Callaghan
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #16: Aug 07, 2018 11:35:27 pm
      I didn't actually think last season was one of our "unluckier" ones. I'd like to see an analysis of the season when Kenny D last went up against Fergie. ( Although my sense of grievance about that one may be skewed by the number of times we hit the post.)

      These dodgy decisions from last year obviously didn't cost us the title. I wonder if those who are so unbothered about them will still be if they do this season? Hopefully we won't find out.
      harrydunn08
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #17: Aug 08, 2018 07:36:04 pm
      lfc across the water
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #18: Aug 08, 2018 10:51:18 pm
      Quote from skamp
      It's a load of rubbish though, as if Liverpool had been awarded the pen against Utd and scored, that doesn't mean the scoreline would have been 1-0.  Utd would have approached the rest of the match differently and may have scored 2 to win 2-1! 

      Let's just do it on the pitch, decisions or not!

      Well we tried to do it on the pitch, but we were denied by incompetent refereeing. We were denied stonewall penalties home and away against the mancs last year, and we were told the games were Mourinho masterclasses instead.

      We have no VAR in the league because the naysayers don't want change. Some of them feel threatened by the very idea of a screen being introduced at Anfield, to make VAR work better for fans at the game.

      We will have VAR in the League Cup, and that will show the difference between competent and incompetent officiating again.
      skamp
      • Forum David Johnson
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #19: Aug 09, 2018 09:55:58 am
      Bollocks.

      Your argument for conjecture can't be more conjecture.

      The correct decisions need to me made or the game will be forever tarnished.

      We do it on the pitch! The officials do not.
      If you like mate.  Maybe City's 2 wrongly disallowed goals in the CL semi should be factored into the argument, not just those that went against us!
      Magillionare
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #20: Aug 09, 2018 10:02:11 am
      If you like mate.  Maybe City's 2 wrongly disallowed goals in the CL semi should be factored into the argument, not just those that went against us!

      I completely agree.

      You can't have it both ways so VAR will ultimately strike out goals we've scored that never should have been, and it'll count wrongly disallowed goals scored against us too.

      But ultimately it will erase (mostly) for me what is the worst feeling in football, being robbed of points because of the officials. You do everything you can on the field only to have a goal ruled for offside wrongly, or a pen given against us for a dive or some other blunder that happens time and time again. I don't know about you but I get genuinely furious, if we're outplayed or are just off the boil and drop points it's a different feeling, more disappointment. But if we're robbed by people who aren't even playing the game, it's straight up fire and brimstone. I think VAR gets rid of that feeling if done correctly.
      Harrisimo
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #21: Aug 09, 2018 11:34:34 am
      Var is used in Germany..

      https://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/soccer-rules-how-does-var-video-assist-work-in-germany-474105.jsp

      Also in Italy and Portugal I think. Spain has plans to start with it, either this season or next. Given that the Premier League is the richest in the world it's strange that the FA have not put VAR in place. Probably blatant incompetence, if so nobody would be surprised.
      RedPuppy
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #22: Aug 09, 2018 12:38:20 pm
      Var is used in Germany..

      https://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/soccer-rules-how-does-var-video-assist-work-in-germany-474105.jsp

      Also in Italy and Portugal I think. Spain has plans to start with it, either this season or next. Given that the Premier League is the richest in the world it's strange that the FA have not put VAR in place. Probably blatant incompetence, if so nobody would be surprised.

      Not strange at all:

      1, Why should johnny foreigner tell us how to run our game, we invented it.
      2, FA can't manipulate results to suit their cash cow.
      PGlynn91
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #23: Aug 09, 2018 12:44:22 pm
      Said VAR would benefit us by about 6-9 points. These figures out today showing we have been done out of 9-12 points is no surprise. I think if this type of survey/study was carried out over the past 10 years, it would've shown we've been cheated out of 30-40 points or more.

      It would've also shown the blatant prejudice shown in favour of Mancheater United. These figures are the best argument so far, that show VAR is needed to straighten out the prejudice against us. And that smaller clubs will get fair decisions against the top teams.

      Var not being introduced this season will see the cheating against us continue.

      I suppose you think Tupac is still alive aswel?
      heimdall
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #24: Aug 09, 2018 04:21:45 pm
      If you like mate.  Maybe City's 2 wrongly disallowed goals in the CL semi should be factored into the argument, not just those that went against us!

      OK lets factor them in, oh look we still go through 5-3, NEXT!!!
      skamp
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #25: Aug 09, 2018 04:31:10 pm
      OK lets factor them in, oh look we still go through 5-3, NEXT!!!
      If City had been 2 up at half time at the Etihad, the outcome could well have been different.  Do you have no concept of the Butterfly effect??!!!  NEXT!!!!!
      Harrisimo
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #26: Aug 09, 2018 06:33:49 pm
      Not strange at all:

      1, Why should johnny foreigner tell us how to run our game, we invented it.
      2, FA can't manipulate results to suit their cash cow.

      Bit of a stupid reply. I wasn't saying we should copy the Germans. The FA will eventually introduce VAR, I was merely pointing out that the FA are dragging their feet.
      Harrisimo
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #27: Aug 09, 2018 06:36:39 pm
      I suppose you think Tupac is still alive aswel?

      I suppose you think aswel or aswell..or I could be exaggerating..
      lfc across the water
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #28: Aug 09, 2018 06:59:00 pm
      All it took was one goal against City at Anfield to see them collapse. All it took was one goal against them at their place to see them collapse.

      The ghost goal that was given after 2 minutes, should have been ruled out for a foul on VVD. So despite their protests, they benefitted from having no VAR.
      RedPuppy
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      Re: Liverpool "unluckiest" PL team & Manchester United "luckiest", says study
      Reply #29: Aug 09, 2018 08:13:32 pm
      Bit of a stupid reply. I wasn't saying we should copy the Germans. The FA will eventually introduce VAR, I was merely pointing out that the FA are dragging their feet.

      What ever, but I was giving my reason why the FA were not introducing VAR, when past evidence showed that it would have benefited us, and the England team.

      Var is used in Germany..

      https://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/soccer-rules-how-does-var-video-assist-work-in-germany-474105.jsp

      Also in Italy and Portugal I think. Spain has plans to start with it, either this season or next. Given that the Premier League is the richest in the world it's strange that the FA have not put VAR in place. Probably blatant incompetence, if so nobody would be surprised.

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