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      LFC League Season Analysis 2018-19

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      JD
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      LFC League Season Analysis 2018-19
      Sep 25, 2018 02:18:02 pm
      Here we go then (Link to last seasons thread)



      Despite Man City blitzing the league last season, we have kept the requirements all the same.  In fact, even though Manchester City did get 100 points, they got 18 points extra than what they needed.  Second place Man Utd had 81 points.  (And after six games of the season our graphs support this).

      Opposition difficulty, as ever, is based on the end of season league position.  Wolves come in as difficulty 18, Cardiff at 19 and Fulham at 20 - as usual.

      Title Target (87 points)

      Requirements:
      Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Last seasons top 4).
      Win your 11 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (For us, last seasons 5th to 9th) . Defeated at your hardest 3 (Top 3).

      P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

      A current score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for the title - below that suggests you are outside title form.

      Top Four Target (70 points)

      Requirements:
      Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 . Defeated by hardest 2 teams
      Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5. Defeated at the hardest 6.

      P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

      A score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for a top 4 spot - below that suggests you are outside top 4 form.

      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2018-19
      Reply #1: Sep 25, 2018 02:25:14 pm
      After 6 games

      Six games into last season it didn't look good for the reds.  We were already 2 points below title form, and Man City were 2 points above it (an effective four point gap).

      Skip forward to this season after 6 games.  (We included Everton for the first 6 games last season hence the reason they are included again ;) )

      Title target



      Liverpool have a technical 5 point advantage over Man City based on opposition faced (compared to 2 in the current table).  Man City are showing title form (+/- 0 points) but the reds are currently beating expectations of a title winning side.

      The Leicester away win was 2 points better than expected.  The Spurs away win being 3 points better than expected.

      Top four target



      Another solid showing from Liverpool.  The extra two points comes from the win away at Crystal Palace - a draw there would have been an expected result for a team in 4th position.

      Arsenal here worth noting as they might be under some people's radar. 

      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2018-19
      Reply #2: Sep 25, 2018 02:48:53 pm
      Quick mention on Watford.  +1 for the title and +2 for a top four.  Good results against Burnley (A) and Spurs (H), but two poor results against Man Utd and Fulham.

      Which team has the worst results? It's actually none of the bottom 3 in the league.  It's 16th placed Burnley.  They have already been beaten by two of the ex-Championship clubs.

      They are on -12 (title) and -11 (top four) which is slightly worse than the next worse - Cardiff City (-12 and -8).

      Everton, like Burnley, are another team who the real Premier League table makes them look better than they've done.  Based on opposition played so far their results have them closer to 16th place than the 12th they are currently in.
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2018-19
      Reply #3: Nov 08, 2018 11:22:59 am
      This needs an update - apologies, had some sh*t to deal with.

      Five games on from our last update, how are we getting on?

      In those five games we've had Chelsea and Arsenal away, Man City at home (all draws) and Huddersfield (A) & Cardiff (H) - both wins.

      <Drumroll>

      Race for the title



      Although City have clearly had one good and one great result in the past five, Liverpool are still 'doing the best'.  Remember we judge all the teams against the same match difficulty.

      Both Liverpool and Man City are performing above the level of Champions in a typical season whilst Chelsea are also in contention.  I don't think we've ever had three teams performing at this level so far gone in to the season before and it only highlights just how competitive the teams at the very top are now.

      Depending how this season pans out and what the final points total we may have to increase the points total.

      Basically, despite Liverpool not looking right on the field at times - the results are, at least for now, going very well.

      Race for the top four



      Those past 5 Liverpool results were actually better than expected for a team who want to be inside the top four so the reds gain a couple of points and again are currently the team most likely to finish inside the top four, yes even more so than City and Chelsea.

      Man Utd have made up some significant ground as well in the last 4 games in terms of a top four place.

      ----

      P.S. And just to add a little context to this - remember this - Liverpool have only played 2 home games against the bottom 7 in the Premier League.  Man City have already played 5 of the bottom 6 at home.
      « Last Edit: Nov 08, 2018 11:27:20 am by JD »
      tezmac
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2018-19
      Reply #4: Nov 08, 2018 12:14:05 pm
      That make an interesting read, maybe we are in a better position sesson wise than how it feels
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2018-19
      Reply #5: Dec 03, 2018 10:34:34 am
      Updated after Matchday 14

      Last 3 games. In terms of a title push Liverpool have had 3 expected results (all wins) - Man City got a bonus 2 points for beating Man Utd in their identical 3 game winning run.

      Race for the title

      Chelsea have slipped.  Premier League title is currently a two horse race.  Man Utd stretching the boundaries of our graph - after a long period of stabilising the wheels have fallen off again.  Arsenal have had their first better than expected result of the season.  Spurs are currently 5th in the Premier League but they are doing reasonably well in this which suggests that they have had quite a difficult opening 14 games in terms of opposition.



      Race for the top four

      There are currently five clubs doing better than expected for a top four position.  This suggests that are likely to see a much better points total for fourth place than has been the average in recent years.  Arsenal and Spurs are the two teams vying for a top four spot.  In terms of results, Arsenal have been in 4th spot after 8/14 matchdays - Spurs in 6/14 matchdays.  Advantage Arsenal for the top four.

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