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      LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20

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      JD
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      LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Aug 27, 2019 12:31:47 pm
      Let's do this again! (Link to 18/19 season thread)



      What a tussle last season at the very top.  We are leaving the points targets the same for a couple of reasons.  Firstly although there were six teams displaying better than top four form over most of the season - come the end of the season there were four teams above the line. 

      Secondly, last season was an extraordinary battle between the top two but we have no indication based on one season if this is going to be a new long term trend. 

      Thirdly, keeping the targets the same allows us to compare the current campaign with the previous campaign.

      Opposition difficulty, as ever, is based on the end of season league position.  Norwich come in as difficulty 18, Sheffield United at 19 and Aston Villa at 20 - based on Championship finishing position.

      Title Target (87 points)

      Requirements:
      Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (Last seasons top 4).
      Win your 11 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (For us, last seasons 5th to 9th) . Defeated at your hardest 3 (Top 3).

      P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

      A current score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for the title race - below that suggests you are outside title form.

      Top Four Target (70 points)

      Requirements:
      Win your 12 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 5 . Defeated by hardest 2 teams
      Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5. Defeated at the hardest 6.

      P38 W20 D10 L8 Pts 70

      A score of 0 or above suggests you are on course for a top 4 spot - below that suggests you are outside top 4 form.

      « Last Edit: Aug 27, 2019 12:52:54 pm by JD »
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #1: Aug 27, 2019 12:49:44 pm
      Weeks 1-3

      A win against Arsenal was a good result for the reds after 2 expected results.

      Early days, but Arsenal and City level pegging and Chelsea the worst start of the other 3 traditional top six sides.

      Race for the title


      Race for top four

      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #2: Oct 21, 2019 02:03:32 pm
      Updated after Week 9

      (Arsenal still to play)

      Liverpool the only side of the 'big six' to be displaying title form at the present.  Worth noting that Leicester, despite being below Man City in the league table, have had a 'better start' to the season highlighting how much more difficult their opening collection of games has been.

      They are not shown on these graphs but they have +- 0 points in terms of a title chase, and +3 points in terms of finishing inside the top four.

      Title

      In comparison to this time last year, Liverpool were also on +5 (+5 this year) but Man City were on +1 (-4 this year)




      Top Four

      « Last Edit: Oct 21, 2019 02:12:57 pm by JD »
      red79
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #3: Oct 23, 2019 12:49:47 pm
      I love this thread, good to see it back this season, you get a real sense of where everyone is really at, at first glance when you look at the league table it doesn’t tell the full story, this does, keep up the good work JD 👍
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #4: Oct 28, 2019 12:50:15 pm
      Matchday 10

      Much has been made of Man City's relatively easy start to the season compared to Liverpool's.

      So it appears to be proved in our ongoing analysis.  Liverpool, based on opposition faced, have an effective 11 point lead over Man City at present on title form, and a 6 point lead based on finishing inside the top four.

      After matchday 10 last season, Liverpool were on +5 and City were on +4.  This season the reds are on +7 and City are on -4.

      Liverpool's victory over Spurs was a positive result.  All the rest enjoyed 'expected' results, except Arsenal who have managed to stitch together two under-performing results in less than 7 days.

      Race for the title


      Race for top four

      « Last Edit: Oct 28, 2019 12:56:19 pm by JD »
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #5: Nov 10, 2019 09:45:41 pm
      Next update coming soon! ;)
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #6: Dec 02, 2019 01:15:38 pm
      Matchday 14

      Leicester have been added to the analysis.  Man Utd will be removed at the next analysis and most likely Arsenal too.

      Leicester, after a slight wobble at the start of the season, have clung on to 'title form'.  (For the purpose of this analysis that is a target of 87 points).  However, the reds are currently 9 points ahead of that kind of form.  With an actual gap in the Premier League table of 8 points this suggests that the reds have had a slightly more difficult start than Brendan Rodgers team.

      Man City are below title form - even aiming at an 87 point target.

      In terms of top four, there are only three sides above the traditional points target to reach it.  Chelsea however are by some margin the most likely to reach it.  Their last result was their first wobble since the first few weeks of the season.

      Liverpool have a commanding lead right now, both in terms of points and comparative results.

      Race for the title


      Race for top four

      Robby The Z
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #7: Dec 02, 2019 05:20:47 pm
      Matchday 14

      Leicester have been added to the analysis.  Man Utd will be removed at the next analysis and most likely Arsenal too.

      Leicester, after a slight wobble at the start of the season, have clung on to 'title form'.  (For the purpose of this analysis that is a target of 87 points).  However, the reds are currently 9 points ahead of that kind of form.  With an actual gap in the Premier League table of 8 points this suggests that the reds have had a slightly more difficult start than Brendan Rodgers team.

      Man City are below title form - even aiming at an 87 point target.

      In terms of top four, there are only three sides above the traditional points target to reach it.  Chelsea however are by some margin the most likely to reach it.  Their last result was their first wobble since the first few weeks of the season.

      Liverpool have a commanding lead right now, both in terms of points and comparative results.

      Race for the title

      <div style="overflow: auto; white-space: nowrap;"><div style="min-width: 800px;"><img src="https://dn1.bangdigital.com/charts/14t.svg" style="max-width: 100%;"></div></div>

      Race for top four

      <div style="overflow: auto; white-space: nowrap;"><div style="min-width: 800px;"><img src="https://dn1.bangdigital.com/charts/14t4.svg" style="max-width: 100%;"></div></div>

      Love the look of that graph! Amazing we are double the points of Spurs, Arsenal and United, 20-22 points clear of each.

      Not to mention 8 points clear and we've played all of the big teams in the first half already. A number of them have matches against one another in the next few weeks, meaning even more separation as long as we keep winning. We've played the tougher schedule thus far.
      racerx34
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #8: Feb 26, 2020 03:07:12 pm
      Update this please, I want to take in the sheer enormity of the graphs.
      clint_call01
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #9: Feb 26, 2020 06:38:08 pm
      Update this please, I want to take in the sheer enormity of the graphs.

      Greedy b***ard :D But we're totally right.
      RedPuppy
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #10: Feb 26, 2020 07:46:34 pm
      Update this please, I want to take in the sheer enormity of the graphs.

      I have a suspicion why this has not been updated.. may be wrong.

      https://youtu.be/0CFuCYNx-1g
      AZPatriot
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #11: Feb 26, 2020 07:59:51 pm
      I have a suspicion why this has not been updated.. may be wrong.

      https://youtu.be/0CFuCYNx-1g

      I had a premonition after the CL that records would be broken this season...and I shouldn't participate in the prediction league; I have yet to put in a prediction this year nor will I.
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #12: Feb 27, 2020 12:55:24 pm
      Update this please, I want to take in the sheer enormity of the graphs.

      Happy to oblige.

      Matchday 27

      Long overdue update.  Conclusion - Liverpool are going to win the league and have already qualified inside the top four (and almost top three).  There's only been one outcome likely from, it seems, very early on.

      City's easy spells are over and they have some more difficult games coming up, so there is still hope for them that they can end the season above our baseline.

      Race for the title

      Leicester soiled their pants on Matchday 18.  Man City did on Matchday 5.  For the record (Utd are -21, Arsenal -26)


      Race for top four

      Last 10 or so games, Arsenal and Man Utd have been playing more like teams who could finish 4th whereas Spurs and Chelsea have been playing like they should be outside the top four.

      Sheffield United (-8 for top four) and Wolves (-10 for top four) are also involved.  However they have both dropped from good positions of -2 and -4 over the course of the past 12 games suggesting their form is deteriorating.

      At the bottom, Bournemouth and Villa have a slightly worse overall score than West Ham.

      « Last Edit: Feb 27, 2020 01:03:32 pm by JD »
      Robby The Z
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #13: Feb 27, 2020 03:10:53 pm
      Love how United and Arsenal literally fall off the table.b :lmao:
      brezipool
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #14: Feb 27, 2020 04:41:47 pm
      Funny how city are supposedly having a crap season, but they are above the target points for a league title. ;D
      racerx34
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #15: Feb 28, 2020 03:34:05 pm
      Funny how city are supposedly having a crap season, but they are above the target points for a league title. ;D

      They're not.
      They're above the target points for Top 4.
      racerx34
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #16: Feb 28, 2020 03:34:34 pm
      Happy to oblige.

      Matchday 27

      Long overdue update.  Conclusion - Liverpool are going to win the league and have already qualified inside the top four (and almost top three).  There's only been one outcome likely from, it seems, very early on.

      City's easy spells are over and they have some more difficult games coming up, so there is still hope for them that they can end the season above our baseline.

      Race for the title

      Leicester soiled their pants on Matchday 18.  Man City did on Matchday 5.  For the record (Utd are -21, Arsenal -26)

      <div style="overflow: auto; white-space: nowrap;"><div style="min-width: 800px;"><img src="https://dn1.bangdigital.com/charts/27-title-2020.svg" style="max-width: 100%;"></div></div>

      Race for top four

      Last 10 or so games, Arsenal and Man Utd have been playing more like teams who could finish 4th whereas Spurs and Chelsea have been playing like they should be outside the top four.

      Sheffield United (-8 for top four) and Wolves (-10 for top four) are also involved.  However they have both dropped from good positions of -2 and -4 over the course of the past 12 games suggesting their form is deteriorating.

      At the bottom, Bournemouth and Villa have a slightly worse overall score than West Ham.

      <div style="overflow: auto; white-space: nowrap;"><div style="min-width: 800px;"><img src="https://dn1.bangdigital.com/charts/27-topfour-2020.svg" style="max-width: 100%;"></div></div>

      Love your work.
      MIRO
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #17: Feb 28, 2020 03:44:04 pm
      I had a premonition after the CL that records would be broken this season...

      and I shouldn't participate in the prediction league; I have yet to put in a prediction this year nor will I.

      I think I did a couple thats all.
      RedPuppy
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #18: Mar 02, 2020 10:48:03 am
      I have a suspicion why this has not been updated.. may be wrong.

      https://youtu.be/0CFuCYNx-1g

      No more updates please!
      JD
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #19: Mar 02, 2020 10:49:53 am

      Yeah, was forced into it! ;)
      racerx34
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #20: Mar 03, 2020 09:36:06 am
      I take full responsibility for this outcome.
      brezipool
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      Re: LFC League Season Analysis 2019-20
      Reply #21: Mar 03, 2020 01:49:27 pm
      ;D. jinxed it.

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