The permutations ignoring Man United and assuming Chelsea and Leicester each win their last match are as follows:
Assuming we win out
The worst case - would be a Chelsea win out and Leicester wins their last match. Chelsea would qualify and Leicester and us would be on 69 points, where GD and such kicks in.
The best case - Leicester wins or draws with Chelsea. We would be fourth in both cases with 69 points. If Leicester wins out, they secure third. If both draw and win their last matches, Leicester is third with 70 points and Chelsea would be fifth with 68 points.
Assuming we draw and win our last two matches
The worst case - Chelsea beats or draws Leicester and both win their last match. We would be fifth.
The best case - Leicester wins out and assuming Chelsea wins its last match. Chelsea and us would have 67 points in fourth, where GD and such kicks in.
Conclusion assuming both Leicester and Chelsea win their final match:
We should win out and hope for Leicester to draw or beat Chelsea.
If we draw and win our subsequent matches, we will need Leicester to beat Chelsea, from which fourth between us and Chelsea would depend on GD and such.
If Leicester lose to Chelsea but then defeat Spurs in their final game, and we defeat Burnley and Palace, we will be level on points with Leicester City, tied for 4th place. Our goal difference would be at least +23 (we are even with Leicester on goal difference now with +21), so it would depend on margin of victory and defeat in the remaining matches.
Next tiebreaker in the Premier league is goals scored. Leicester currently have 65 goals scored and we have 63! Certainly that could be even by the end of next Sunday as well.
The third tierbreaker is points in head to head meeting. We wont at Anfield and they won at King Power Stadium - so even.
However the 4th tiebreaker is away goals in head to head meeting. We kept a clean sheet at Anfield (3-0) but Mo scored a goal at Leicester in a 3-1 defeat.
That means we have the 4th tiebreaker and that it won't go to a coin flip or a playoff for the Champions League berth (if all 4 tiebreakers were even the Premier League would split the 4th-5th prize money between the teams and decalre both teams as finishing 4th - but not sure about UEFA).
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