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      The Run In

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      Gill95
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #46: Apr 02, 2024 10:52:16 pm
      I'm a big believer of law of averages in terms of football stats, I expect Arsenal to drop more points in away fixtures, courtesy to them scoring too many away goals in quick succession before the last match. It reminds me a bit of us last season when we would put 7 or 9 past a team at Anfield, and drop points in next games.

      I only see city being our closer rival in the run in TBH.
      Don77
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #47: Apr 02, 2024 11:08:56 pm
      I'm a big believer of law of averages in terms of football stats, I expect Arsenal to drop more points in away fixtures, courtesy to them scoring too many away goals in quick succession before the last match. It reminds me a bit of us last season when we would put 7 or 9 past a team at Anfield, and drop points in next games.

      I only see city being our closer rival in the run in TBH.

      Arsenal are not going anywhere mate. They will be there at the end and their last 2 games are against our rivals who dont want us to win anything.
      Longy-Shops
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #48: Apr 02, 2024 11:26:27 pm
      I'm a big believer of law of averages in terms of football stats, I expect Arsenal to drop more points in away fixtures, courtesy to them scoring too many away goals in quick succession before the last match. It reminds me a bit of us last season when we would put 7 or 9 past a team at Anfield, and drop points in next games.

      I only see city being our closer rival in the run in TBH.
      This is strange logic....it proposes that teams have a predetermined number of goals and that they can in some way run out...this is folly.
      Once a game is finished, no matter if you score ten or none, that is the end of it ...done...over, it can't influence how many goals you'll score (or not) in the next match...It's impossible. Truth is no one knows what's going to happen over the next 9 fixtures.
      billythered
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #49: Apr 03, 2024 05:01:03 am
      Why do PUNDITS keep saying Liverpool have an easier run in?

      They have Spurs, Man United, the Merseyside Derby and Aston Villa who are chasing Top 4.

      Neither Arsenal or City have these hard of games.

      City have the easiest run-in hands down.

      Are these guys even looking at the Fixture list?






      In a word No, their all Blinded by City, that’s all they see, the don’t see us going on a nine unbeaten run, only City are capable, we can’t overhaul a four point gap, only City can do that, we’re not chasing down our 4th title on the bounce, only City can do that(true), they don’t see us hitting form when it matters most they don’t see where our key players return from injury, just when it will matter, they don’t see Arse peaking too early which imo they have, and they definitely don’t see a weakness in City which has become apparent in the last two/three games,

      No one of course will say anything because it’s City, only one pundit has nailed his colours to the mast, Gabby Agbonlahor…..now I don’t normally sing from the same song sheet as he does, but I am on this occasion, on Drivetime he was asked by that pr**k Andy Goldstein,  “Who’s winning the title “, he went thru all the remaining fixtures to play and called it, but he also spotted City going off the boil, and he’s right, KDB in particular took his focus, saying he looked leggy, slower, definitely a change there, there not as strong at the back either, no Ederson, Stones hot & cold, and that Kunt Walker is crook, ……don’t get me wrong, their still a great side but their vulnerable, CL starts again next week, Vs RM, that’ll test them,

      Arse for me have peaked too early imo, they have some real tricky encounters ahead, notably, Spuds away, Munts, away, think they still have to play Brighton, Wolves too, so definitely a bumpy ride for them, they also have CL with a interesting visit to BM first up, I really can’t see them overhauling us, unless we F**k it up,


      It’s ours to lose now, one at a time, same as when we won it in 19/20, we are the mentality monsters, and we never ever give in, do we ??



      YNWA

      Scottbot
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #50: Apr 03, 2024 09:56:41 am
      Getting our injured players back over the next couple of weeks is massive for us. Jones has been a big miss and should be in the squad for Thursday, same goes for Robbo. Trent should be back for Atalanta and Jota a week after that. Plus Bajetic is close too.

      Also, the champions league could really help us, a city vs Arsenal semi-final is on the cards and as much as I want them both to lose, that fixture would be the best possible outcome for us. I’d be very happy for be if them to win the champions league if it means we get number 20. What a way that would be for Klopp to sign off and then we can put an end to the ‘most successful club in England’ debate to be bed.
      billythered
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #51: Apr 03, 2024 11:06:39 am
      Getting our injured players back over the next couple of weeks is massive for us. Jones has been a big miss and should be in the squad for Thursday, same goes for Robbo. Trent should be back for Atalanta and Jota a week after that. Plus Bajetic is close too.

      Also, the champions league could really help us, a city vs Arsenal semi-final is on the cards and as much as I want them both to lose, that fixture would be the best possible outcome for us. I’d be very happy for be if them to win the champions league if it means we get number 20. What a way that would be for Klopp to sign off and then we can put an end to the ‘most successful club in England’ debate to be bed.





      I think this will prove the difference in the end, we’ll have as close to a fullest squad possible to choose from in the last 5/6 games, ironically our strongest of this campaign,
      Tonight though we are likely to knocked off our f***in Perch by the Arsey bas**rds, however we will regain it tomorrow when we batter the Blades,

      City have Villa @ home tonight and I believe a slip up could be on the cards, their definitely not firing on all cylinders right now and Villa chasing a European berth will be well up for it, albeit without Ollie Watkins, but John McGinn is back after suspension, if they do F**k it up tonight, I reckon their done, a draw tonight and a win for us tomorrow opens a six point gap, and we ain’t f***in that up,

      Arse will stay two behind until they themselves slip up, most notably against Spuds @ Spuds, like City, that has draw written all over it, of course, we need to keep winning, no one else matters, we don’t look over our shoulders, we focus on the next match and see it out till the end,

      I’ve looked at our fixtures, there are one or two we really need to be on top form, Munts away this weekend, and further up the pipe we have Villa & Blueshite away, & Spuds at home, all of those are banana skins, however, with momentum, confidence and sheer willingness i don’t think we’ll lose to any of them, 

      Admittedly we weren’t at our best Vs Brighton, but we never are after a international break, tomorrow night we’ll see a more familiar performance, I feel for Blades already, in turn it will give us the platform going to the toilet where we will most definitely right a wrong, 😁

      I’m not normal a betting man, but maybe a tenner on Villa tonight not to lose, 11/2 the draw, and if yer feeling brave 9/1 for the win 🤣



      YNWA
      Longy-Shops
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #52: Apr 03, 2024 11:18:15 am




      I think this will prove the difference in the end, we’ll have as close to a fullest squad possible to choose from in the last 5/6 games, ironically our strongest of this campaign,
      Tonight though we are likely to knocked off our f***in Perch by the Arsey bas**rds, however we will regain it tomorrow when we batter the Blades,

      City have Villa @ home tonight and I believe a slip up could be on the cards, their definitely not firing on all cylinders right now and Villa chasing a European berth will be well up for it, albeit without Ollie Watkins, but John McGinn is back after suspension, if they do F**k it up tonight, I reckon their done, a draw tonight and a win for us tomorrow opens a six point gap, and we ain’t f***in that up,

      Arse will stay two behind until they themselves slip up, most notably against Spuds @ Spuds, like City, that has draw written all over it, of course, we need to keep winning, no one else matters, we don’t look over our shoulders, we focus on the next match and see it out till the end,

      I’ve looked at our fixtures, there are one or two we really need to be on top form, Munts away this weekend, and further up the pipe we have Villa & Blueshite away, & Spuds at home, all of those are banana skins, however, with momentum, confidence and sheer willingness i don’t think we’ll lose to any of them, 

      Admittedly we weren’t at our best Vs Brighton, but we never are after a international break, tomorrow night we’ll see a more familiar performance, I feel for Blades already, in turn it will give us the platform going to the toilet where we will most definitely right a wrong, 😁

      I’m not normal a betting man, but maybe a tenner on Villa tonight not to lose, 11/2 the draw, and if yer feeling brave 9/1 for the win 🤣



      YNWA
      Keep your money in your pocket BTR...City will win it comfortably. All three contenders for the title will win this round of fixtures.
      Gill95
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #53: Apr 03, 2024 11:30:51 am
      This is strange logic....it proposes that teams have a predetermined number of goals and that they can in some way run out...this is folly.
      Once a game is finished, no matter if you score ten or none, that is the end of it ...done...over, it can't influence how many goals you'll score (or not) in the next match...It's impossible. Truth is no one knows what's going to happen over the next 9 fixtures.

      I mean, there is reason why goals record are rarely broken. I tend to see goals being evenly distributed over the course of whole season as a better sign of consistency than a flurry of goals as Arsenal have scored. Games like Aston villa, Newcastle, West Ham, City only further solidies this. They went scoreless in all those games. I'm expecting few more goalless games from them, especially away, lets see.
      Longy-Shops
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #54: Apr 03, 2024 12:02:48 pm
      I mean, there is reason why goals record are rarely broken. I tend to see goals being evenly distributed over the course of whole season as a better sign of consistency than a flurry of goals as Arsenal have scored. Games like Aston villa, Newcastle, West Ham, City only further solidies this. They went scoreless in all those games. I'm expecting few more goalless games from them, especially away, lets see.
      The currency of football is goals and a great deal of effort goes into scoring them....equally, a great deal of effort goes into trying to prevent them. When teams are of a similar rank the goals scored are likely to be fairly even....usually low in number. Many factors play a part: Home crowd, Personnel available, what's at stake etc.etc....even luck, all these things play their part. Every now and again a team will bag 5 or 6 goals....a team 4 nil down with an hour to play would find it almost impossible to fight on, and are in danger of letting in 6 or 7...except of course the side with the big lead reins in their attack...the game is won so no need to waste energy. The main point is most games will have a relatively low goal count and whatever you've scored in the past Can't determine what you'll score in the future....If it did we'd all be winning fortunes on the Pools (Do they still exist?)
      Gill95
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #55: Apr 03, 2024 12:16:57 pm
      The currency of football is goals and a great deal of effort goes into scoring them....equally, a great deal of effort goes into trying to prevent them. When teams are of a similar rank the goals scored are likely to be fairly even....usually low in number. Many factors play a part: Home crowd, Personnel available, what's at stake etc.etc....even luck, all these things play their part. Every now and again a team will bag 5 or 6 goals....a team 4 nil down with an hour to play would find it almost impossible to fight on, and are in danger of letting in 6 or 7...except of course the side with the big lead reins in their attack...the game is won so no need to waste energy. The main point is most games will have a relatively low goal count and whatever you've scored in the past Can't determine what you'll score in the future....If it did we'd all be winning fortunes on the Pools (Do they still exist?)

      Every once in a while is fine, but when you score too many in quick succession in multiple games, while also showing signs of not scoring in multiple games(you can add Porto away game to that too), thats a sign I cant ignore, afterall its not goals that matters in the long run, its the points gathered, whether its from a single goal or 5 goals. They only need to go scoreless in one game, while scoring 3+ in rest of games, it wouldnt matter, they will still lose the title.  Time will tell, what happens.
      Rush
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #56: Apr 03, 2024 12:21:01 pm
      I said before the FA Cup against Utd, that if we did lose, it would put us in a better mindset for the league game at Utd, than if we'd gone there and won. That defeat means we will definitely be up for that game. So for me, the tricky game is Villa away. The rest, even Everton away, I am confident we'll win.
      ruthcity
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #57: Apr 03, 2024 12:30:01 pm
      City are still favorites for the title. That’s because they are so good. And they’re so fantastic.

      The whole world is waiting for us to slip up and the whole world believes that the ever infallible and fantastic favorites will be the eventual winners.
      Longy-Shops
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #58: Apr 03, 2024 01:13:16 pm
      Every once in a while is fine, but when you score too many in quick succession in multiple games, while also showing signs of not scoring in multiple games(you can add Porto away game to that too), thats a sign I cant ignore, afterall its not goals that matters in the long run, its the points gathered, whether its from a single goal or 5 goals. They only need to go scoreless in one game, while scoring 3+ in rest of games, it wouldnt matter, they will still lose the title.  Time will tell, what happens.
      Sorry...You've lost me now.....Onwards
      Longy-Shops
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #59: Apr 03, 2024 01:17:19 pm
      I said before the FA Cup against Utd, that if we did lose, it would put us in a better mindset for the league game at Utd, than if we'd gone there and won. That defeat means we will definitely be up for that game. So for me, the tricky game is Villa away. The rest, even Everton away, I am confident we'll win.
      Sorry R. can't agree with that...Winning generates confidence and engineers a winning mentality. We should be "Up" for all games. All the fixtures are going to be tough.
      Rush
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #60: Apr 03, 2024 01:20:41 pm
      Sorry R. can't agree with that...Winning generates confidence and engineers a winning mentality. We should be "Up" for all games. All the fixtures are going to be tough.
      Agreed. But unfortunately we all know players are only human and sometimes they aren’t in the right frame of mind. They will be now, though.
      Gill95
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #61: Apr 03, 2024 01:27:30 pm
      Sorry...You've lost me now.....Onwards

      Here is the reasoning for your original point

      https://ibb.co/3BtXZjv

      Arsenal go a bit high in terms of away goals scored in single game, but they have a few scoreless games.

      Now we go onto our away games.


      https://ibb.co/cc8n4mb

      We have never gone scoreless in away games, the difference you can see is our distribution of goals is fairly even with respect to that of Arsenal(I'm not counting Europe here). Meanwhile Arsenal have some games where they over do the goals.

      Now that GD of Arsenal means F**k all if they have a tendency to go scoreless in some away games, as opposed to us, who have consistently scored in every game but in lesser number.

      In such high competitive league, these small margins are where everything comes down to.

      And to the main point, if past outcomes can determine the goals scored in next games, I believe it does, I've seen plenty of stat data regarding that , for different teams.  I believe thats how average works. The more you deviate from moving average (score too many goals in consecutive games), the likely you are to come back to the average, idk if thats called standard deviation, I'm not really a maths guy P.S.

      I mean for sure this has other factors to count like the way Arsenal play, they concede the lowest shots of any team in the league, while they also dont have a certified killer in a centre foward who can score out of nothing.

      « Last Edit: Apr 03, 2024 01:43:37 pm by Gill95 »
      Harrisimo
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #62: Apr 03, 2024 01:31:23 pm
      WTF was Keane trying to do. As if Haarland needs any extra motivation. Calling him a division 2 level striker. Haarland is not Messi or even Firminio. He's mostly old school. Bit of a throwback, agricultural. Poacher come striker.Needs 2 on him anywhere near the box.

      If we are to win it, we need Haarland to misfire as much as anything. Keane is such a big head..'never knowingly wrong'..

      " yer put too much jam on this toast..".....' scrape it off then'

      "But if yer did it right in the first place I wouldn't have to go to the trouble of scraping it off would I "

      Longy-Shops
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #63: Apr 03, 2024 01:46:15 pm
      Here is the reasoning for your original point

      https://ibb.co/3BtXZjv

      Arsenal go a bit high in terms of away goals scored in single game, but they have a few scoreless games.

      Now we go onto our away games.


      https://ibb.co/cc8n4mb

      We have never gone scoreless in away games, the difference you can see is our distribution of goals is fairly even with respect to that of Arsenal(I'm not counting Europe here). Meanwhile Arsenal have some games where they over do the goals.

      Now that GD of Arsenal means F**k all if they have a tendency to go scoreless in some away games, as opposed to us, who have consistently scored in every game but in lesser number.

      In such high competitive league, these small margins are where everything comes down to.

      And to the main point, if past outcomes can determine the goals scored in next games, I believe it does, I've seen plenty of stat data regarding that , for different teams.  I believe thats how average works. The more you deviate from moving average (score too many goals in consecutive games), the likely you are to come back to the average, idk if thats called standard deviation, I'm not really a maths guy P.S.

      I mean for sure this has other factors to count like the way Arsenal play, they concede the lowest shots of any team in the league, while they also dont have a certified killer in a centre foward who can score out of nothing.
      No matter what happens previously things revert to an average....that's why we have the word Average....Bored now...onwards
      rossyred
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #64: Apr 03, 2024 01:52:07 pm
      Hopefully TAA and Jota back for Europe game but more likely an appearance against Palace no chance of Weekend . Ali seems close and Robbo and Jones back .
      « Last Edit: Apr 03, 2024 02:01:51 pm by rossyred »
      FL Red
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #65: Apr 03, 2024 02:05:19 pm
      City are still favorites for the title. That’s because they are so good. And they’re so fantastic.

      The whole world is waiting for us to slip up and the whole world believes that the ever infallible and fantastic favorites will be the eventual winners.

      Actually, according to the OptaStats super computer...we are now favorites over City.
      sore monad
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #66: Apr 03, 2024 02:14:47 pm
      WTF was Keane trying to do. As if Haarland needs any extra motivation. Calling him a division 2 level striker. Haarland is not Messi or even Firminio. He's mostly old school. Bit of a throwback, agricultural. Poacher come striker.Needs 2 on him anywhere near the box.

      If we are to win it, we need Haarland to misfire as much as anything. Keane is such a big head..'never knowingly wrong'..

      " yer put too much jam on this toast..".....' scrape it off then'

      "But if yer did it right in the first place I wouldn't have to go to the trouble of scraping it off would I "

       ;D

      Keane is a classic example of the way people confuse being a bitter ignorant gobs***e with "telling it like it is".

      Haaland a league 2 player is quite a level of deluded bollocks, even for him.
      ruthcity
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #67: Apr 03, 2024 02:22:03 pm
      Actually, according to the OptaStats super computer...we are now favorites over City.

      We know it better. And IKR.

      But every b***ard out there is still believing in City because of how infallible they WERE. Bet the refs and VAR do as well.
      PastorGeek
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      Re: The Run In
      Reply #68: Apr 03, 2024 02:51:14 pm





      In a word No, their all Blinded by City, that’s all they see, the don’t see us going on a nine unbeaten run, only City are capable, we can’t overhaul a four point gap, only City can do that, we’re not chasing down our 4th title on the bounce, only City can do that(true), they don’t see us hitting form when it matters most they don’t see where our key players return from injury, just when it will matter, they don’t see Arse peaking too early which imo they have, and they definitely don’t see a weakness in City which has become apparent in the last two/three games,

      No one of course will say anything because it’s City, only one pundit has nailed his colours to the mast, Gabby Agbonlahor…..now I don’t normally sing from the same song sheet as he does, but I am on this occasion, on Drivetime he was asked by that pr**k Andy Goldstein,  “Who’s winning the title “, he went thru all the remaining fixtures to play and called it, but he also spotted City going off the boil, and he’s right, KDB in particular took his focus, saying he looked leggy, slower, definitely a change there, there not as strong at the back either, no Ederson, Stones hot & cold, and that Kunt Walker is crook, ……don’t get me wrong, their still a great side but their vulnerable, CL starts again next week, Vs RM, that’ll test them,

      Arse for me have peaked too early imo, they have some real tricky encounters ahead, notably, Spuds away, Munts, away, think they still have to play Brighton, Wolves too, so definitely a bumpy ride for them, they also have CL with a interesting visit to BM first up, I really can’t see them overhauling us, unless we F**k it up,


      It’s ours to lose now, one at a time, same as when we won it in 19/20, we are the mentality monsters, and we never ever give in, do we ??



      YNWA

      Who do you see City losing or drawing with in that fixture list?? We have 3 possibly 4 very hard fixtures. Where are they going to drop points?

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