The bookies view..
It's time to sound like a broken record again, so apologies to those of you who know the drill. Liverpool are 12th in the Barclays Premier League. They've won one of five home games, and have also been beaten at Anfield in both the League Cup and the Europa League. It's a trend that goes back to last season, when they won less than a third of their home games - having been good for at least 12 since 2004, they managed just six. Come the end of the season, that's why they finished three places and 13 points behind Newcastle. And yet here we are again, with Liverpool quoted at 4/7, genuinely one of the worst value prices you'll see all season (except for almost all other Liverpool games). Now, this isn't to say they can't or won't win, nor is it the fault of Brendan Rodgers or any member of the Liverpool staff. But it does mean that all we have to do here is decide how to back Newcastle because if you oppose Liverpool at home with any half-decent side, you'll end up in front. And Newcastle are more than half decent. After all, they're two places and three points ahead of Liverpool and arrive looking for their third consecutive win in all competitions. It must be noted that they're winless on the road, but draws at Everton and Sunderland show that they're more than able travellers, and while their record at Anfield is poor, that's more than factored in to all markets and is a fine example of how historical evidence can become virtually irrelevant. Demba Ba is only rated '50-50' by Alan Pardew but in Papiss Cisse the Newcastle manager knows he has a striker he can rely on, and if the visitors can keep Luis Suarez quiet then that's half the battle won. Newcastle can be backed at 4/1 in Coral's 'draw no bet' market and that's a ridiculous price, so we'll have a decent wager. If you do want to side with Liverpool, back Suarez at 100/30 to score their first goal because he's probably closer to a 2/1 chance, but we're firmly in the away camp here.
Lets hope we prove them wrong....
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