MODS: Feel free to merge this if you think it shouldn't be a topic on its own.
I've been doing some maths, which people can be check if they like I did this in a bit of a rush. And I think it's necessary to post this to put across this kind of realism about the rest of this season.
As it currently stands we have two different, and pretty opposing, ways of viewing the season so far and how the rest of our league campaign will unfold. It is my personal view that we won't qualify for the Champions League and probably not the UEFA Cup either. But some on here are pointing out that we aren't that far away from fourth and we have plenty of games left to play and therefore we should be optimistic we can still get Champions League football this season.
I think this is an attitude that will only serve to put pressure on manager who, for numerous reasons, won't be able to meet that kind of expectation... especially not after this start. So stick with my here; and feel free to correct any errors I've made if there are any.. but overall I think the point will stand.
Since 2001-02 season, the first year four teams could qualify for Champions League football in England, the average points required to obtain fourth place is 68 points. Which is, rounded up, is 60% of all the points available. To put that into perspective the amount need to win the league on average is 88 points. And that is 77% of the total points.
We are currently on 11 points from a possible 30, which is 37%. If we continue this over the course of a season we'll barely get over the magical 40 point mark which is associated with avoiding relegation, with just 42 points. It is worth pointing out we have played well enough in our first 11 games to know we'll probably not be looking at relegation battle come the run in. But that is what we are currently on course for.
So in order for us to hit the average amount needed for Champions League qualification we'll need gaining points at a rate of 68%. Only 9% off average title winning form... for the next 28 games...
To if we scored at 68% over a whole season we'd get 77 points, a total which we've only managed three times in the previous eleven seasons. And in all of those seasons it is fair to say the relative strength of our squad and manager were considerably better than what we have currently. In two of those three seasons we had Benitez and the Top Four was a fixed group, whereas now we have Newcastle, Everton, Spurs and Arsenal looking to take that final Champions League place too. Unless we hit spectacularly good form between now and May, a possibility I'm aiming to show is extremely unlikely, then we won't be getting Champions League football. It is just my personal view that people should accept that now, this start to the season has made the Top Four unrealistic.
In the summer I thought there was an outside chance we could finish fourth and get back into the Champions League despite the challenges Rodgers would be facing. But I think the end of the transfer window and our poor, in terms of points, start has ruled that out.
Unless we sign some brilliant players in January and go on essentially title winning form there is no way we'll be playing Tuesday and Wednesday night's under the lights at Anfield till at least two seasons time. But even that would require our spectacularly good form to start immediately and for the points total to achieve CL football to remain the average of 68 points. The highest total in the past eleven seasons was 76 points and that came at 67%... which is almost exactly the rate at which we need to gain points to equal the eleven season average
My point isn't that we should have no hope at all, far from it. But it should be tempered by a heavy dose of reality. I'd love nothing more than to play European football next season but I think that even Europa League qualification is going to require a good points return from this point onwards.
The lowering of expectations in general is not something that I want to get into, the rights and wrongs of the theory FSG are trying to lower our expectations in general aren't what I want to get at. I just don't think it's fair to talk about Champions League qualification for this point onwards and to add to the kind of disappointed fan pressure we saw that forced Rafa out.
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