League Season Analysis - 2012/13

Apologies for the delay in starting this season's topic.

Last season's topic was here
http://www.lfcreds.com/reds/index.php/topic,40360.0.html


Many of you found this informative - as it analyses teams results based on the difficulty of opposition played (based on last seasons League Table)

Title target = 87 points (Utd did finish second on 89 pts last season - but normally 86 pts is the highest a 2nd place team has managed)
Top four target = 68 points (the highest a team has finished in 5th in recent years was on 67 points)

I have approximated the targets as follows.  The 'easiest' and 'hardest' are based on last years league position. Newly promoted clubs count as bottom 3.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (City, United, Arsenal, Spurs).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham). Defeated at your hardest 3 (City, Utd, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (68 points)

Requirements:
Win your 11 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 6 (Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (City, Utd)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Everton, Fulham, West Brom, Swansea, Norwich). Defeated at the hardest 6. (City, Utd, Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea)

P38 W19 D11 L8 Pts 68

Before I post how the other teams are doing let's look at Liverpool's results.

Aiming for the title

West Brom (A) Lost (Should win) -3
Man City (H) Draw (Should draw) 0
Arsenal (H) Lost (Should draw) -1
Sunderland (A) Draw (Should win) -2
Man Utd (H) Lost (Should draw) -1
Norwich (A) Won (Should win) 0
Stoke (H) Draw (Should win) -2
Reading (H) Won (Should win) 0
Everton (A) Draw (Should draw) 0
Newcastle (H) Draw (Should draw) 0
Chelsea (A) Draw (Should draw) 0

Good results 0
Expected results 6
Poor results (draw when should win, or lost when should draw) 4
Very bad results (lost when should win) 1

Overall total -9 pts off title form

Aiming for the top four

West Brom (A) Lost (Should draw) -1
Man City (H) Draw (Should lose) +1
Arsenal (H) Lost (Should draw) -1
Sunderland (A) Draw (Should win) -2
Man Utd (H) Lost (Should lose) 0
Norwich (A) Won (Should draw) +2
Stoke (H) Draw (Should win) -2
Reading (H) Won (Should win) 0
Everton (A) Draw (Should draw) 0
Newcastle (H) Draw (Should draw) 0
Chelsea (A) Draw (Should lose) +1

Good results 3
Expected results 4
Poor results 4
Very bad results 0

Overall total -2 pts off 4th placed form

Analysis

As can be seen - the reds have had an exceptionally difficult start.  On title form we only predict 9 draws in the season.  In our opening 11 games we have played 6 of these games already.

For both categories, Liverpool suffered most at the start of the season - recent results have been more in line with expectations.





I will add the points from the other teams shortly.

Thank you JD, I've missed this thread.  Gives us a more analytical view of how we are doing.

For the record I've just looked at last season at this stage.

We were -6pts off title form and level with top four form.

Which shows just how much more difficult our start has been this time. (Not that I'm here to defend the manager of course!)

So, a Skrtel back pass or Suarez goal v Everton away from 4th place form.

For the record I've just looked at last season at this stage.

We were -6pts off title form and level with top four form.

Which shows just how much more difficult our start has been this time. (Not that I'm here to defend the manager of course!)

I checked some of those stats over the weekend JD.  This time last year we had only played 3 of the 7 teams that finished above us compared to this seasons 6 out of 7.

Very very good thread - great work and very insightful

Thank you for posting this - will certainly follow this thread with a keen eye

Going by your figures despite our very tough start we are only 2 points away from CL qualification results - that's positive.

Here we go - a select group of teams - and this is going to be interesting.

Chasing the title



Man Utd +5
Man City 0
Chelsea -2
Spurs -8
Arsenal -9
Everton -9
Liverpool -9

Chasing the top four



Man Utd +12
Chelsea +6
Man City +3
Everton 0
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -3
Spurs -5


Whilst these make Liverpool's results so far not appear so bad - it now proves that Liverpool are coming up to what should be an easier part of the season.

Liverpool now have 6 of the next 9 games that they are expected to win - the exceptions being Spurs (A) predicted defeat, Swansea (A) predicted draw, Fulham (H) predicted draw.

So to get back to 0 - back on target for the top four by the New Year, we need 22 points from the next 9 games - or 7 wins and a draw.  Good luck with that!

Thanks JD. I believe that we won't get top 4, but that results haven't been as bad as they appear on paper.

I was talking to my old man at the weekend and he's a lifelong Spurs fan (ex season ticket holder, ex cockney etc etc) and he told me Spurs have played ALL of the bottom six. Now even allowing for the fact he hates AVB and that he occasionally talks bollocks, it certainly got me thinking about our situation.
Now my read is that first three will pull well clear, but the rest will finish in an absolute scrum as they are all much of a muchness. Within that tho, we have Suarez who I am convinced is the best player in the league. As such, we have a chance if we can get going.

Very very good thread - great work and very insightful

J.D.'s work on this each year ... always commands maximum respect.

since august the 18th we have conceeded 28 goals in all competitions. I think the style we play looks great when going forward but it does not work for me defensivly sorry . If we can start getting a few clean sheets together then i cant see why we cant finish top 6 ,But at the minute i cant see to many clean sheets coming just yet!

I was talking to my old man at the weekend and he's a lifelong Spurs fan (ex season ticket holder, ex cockney etc etc) and he told me Spurs have played ALL of the bottom six. Now even allowing for the fact he hates AVB and that he occasionally talks bollocks, it certainly got me thinking about our situation.
Now my read is that first three will pull well clear, but the rest will finish in an absolute scrum as they are all much of a muchness. Within that tho, we have Suarez who I am convinced is the best player in the league. As such, we have a chance if we can get going.

With you on that one Mick, Suarez by a country mile.
As such tho we are dependant on one world class striker and injuries are not to be considered - but what if the unthinkable were to happen?
The treatment Luis gets and the way it is totally ignored by officials makes it more likely than not he is going to get injured.
sh*t creek and paddles comes to mind

since august the 18th we have conceeded 28 goals in all competitions. I think the style we play looks great when going forward but it does not work for me defensivly sorry . If we can start getting a few clean sheets together then i cant see why we cant finish top 6 ,But at the minute i cant see to many clean sheets coming just yet!

6 goals conceded in the last 6 league games - the defence is getting stronger and will do even more when Lucas is back and Pepe.

6 goals conceded in the last 6 league games - the defence is getting stronger and will do even more when Lucas is back and Pepe.

Ok 6 goals conceeded in the last 6 prem games of which three of those teams were Norwich ,Reading ,Stoke, who havnt hit double figures in goals scored yet ,

Well neither Stoke or Reading scored against us. Either way you want to look at we are improving and if you look at JD's stats we are far from being out of it and the only way is forward.

stats we are far from being out of it and the only way is forward.

I think you need to change that to the only way is UP

Very good analysis. It does all come back to us winning games though.

Well well.

Looks like we started this topic just at the right time!

Updated 17th November 2012 (As it stands)

Liverpool don't improve points-wise (it was an expected win) but some of the teams we aim to challenge have suffered.

Aiming for the title

United should have beaten Norwich (A) - Lost -3
Liverpool should have beaten Wigan (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have drawn Spurs (H) - Won +2
Spurs should have lost at Arsenal (A) - Lost 0
Everton should have beaten Reading (A) - Lost -3
Chelsea should have beaten West Brom (A) - Lost -3
Man City should have beaten Aston Villa (H) - Won 0

Aiming for top four

United should have drawn Norwich (A) - Lost -1
Liverpool should have beaten Wigan (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have drawn Spurs (H) - Won +2
Spurs should have lost at Arsenal (A) - Lost 0
Everton should have beaten Reading (A) - Lost -3
Chelsea should have drawn West Brom (A) - Lost -1
Man City should have beaten Aston Villa (H) - Won 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City 0
Chelsea -5
Arsenal -7
Spurs -8
Liverpool -9
Everton -12



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Chelsea +5
Man City +3
Arsenal -1
Liverpool -2
Everton -3
Spurs -5

So based on JD's excellent analysis, much appreciated, we're only 2 points off 4th pace. You can get 5/1 on Liverpool finishing in the top 4, while I think we may finish short of it this year I wouldn't put anyone off having a little flutter on that. Does seem good value if you think we're going to go on a decent run you could easily lay it off after Christmas.

Especially considering the teams that are ahead of us are also only performing on par or just below what you'd expect.

Absolutely love this thread. Thanks again JD!

Only just been highlighted about this thread ( Cheers Rodders)

Excellent reading JD... I love this kind of stuff.

Based on the opening 12 results - these are our predicted final point ranges for the teams as of 20th November.  (Be interesting to compare at the end of the season!)

Man Utd 93-102
Man City 78-87
Chelsea 71-84
Arsenal 65
Liverpool 58-62
Spurs 52-62
Everton 49-59

Great thread.

I defo think we are about to start a run of picking up a lot of points, all our games between now & new year are very winnable, esp. if suarez keeps playing the way he is, and with the defence getting stronger every game, and lucas coming back.

Oh yea and u-21.s\ressies winning their league with 3 games to go.

Which means the young lads are all buzzing and pushing the 1st team hard!

All looking very rosy ATM.

Brilliant thread this JD.  Very interesting.

+1

Updated 26th November 2012 (As it stands)

Chelsea and Man City only sides to benefit this weekend from their draw.

Aiming for the title

United should have beaten QPR (H) - Won 0
Liverpool should have beaten Swansea (A) - Drew -2
Everton should have beaten Norwich (H) - Drew -2
Spurs should have beaten West Ham (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have beaten Aston Villa (A) - Drew -2
Chelsea should have drawn Man City (H) - Drew 0
Man City should have lost at Chelsea (A) - Drew +1

Aiming for top four

United should have beaten QPR (H) - Won 0
Liverpool should have drawn Swansea (A) - Drew 0
Everton should have beaten Norwich (H) - Drew -2
Spurs should have beaten West Ham (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have beaten Aston Villa (A) - Drew -2
Chelsea should have lost to Man City (H) - Drew +1
Man City should have lost at Chelsea (A) - Drew +1

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City 1
Chelsea -5
Spurs -8
Arsenal -9
Liverpool -11
Everton -14



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Chelsea +6
Man City +4
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -3
Everton -5
Spurs -5

Lots of opportunities for teams to get better than expected results tonight - Liverpool and Arsenal have the most available to gain as they have the trickiest fixtures of the evening.

Tonight's fixtures - expected results.

Aiming for the title

Liverpool should draw against Spurs (A)
Spurs should beat Liverpool (H)
Chelsea should beat Fulham (H)
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H)
Arsenal should draw against Everton (A)
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H)
Man City should beat Wigan (A)

Aiming for top four

Liverpool should lose against Spurs (A)
Spurs should draw against Liverpool (H)
Chelsea should draw against Fulham (H)
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H)
Arsenal should lose against Everton (A)
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H)
Man City should beat Wigan (A)

Great analysis, great thread.

Just to point out that the top  4 always springs a surprise team. A good run of games gives confidence a teams start winning games they are not meant to win. A Norwich is on an 8 games bounce, a West Brom are in the form of their life, a Swansea is unbeaten in 6/7 games, an Everton are in the best start of their season.

All these distorts the way teams approach games, wheather they sit and wait or throw caution to the winds, or try to preserve a 1 point from a 50/50 game.

i think the fixture didnt help the new manager, start of the season, i bet the fixture re-arranged and we started with the next 9 games instead of the previous 9 i bet reseults would have been much better, the team buzzing with confidence and could have won more games than draws.

The ability to turn defeats to draws and draws to wins is more of a mental thing and i think and hope we can build momentum with the next set of fixtures. If we defeat Spurs at home tonite i see us getting at least 21 points from the next 27.

And i still believe we are good enough for 4th regardless of Jan signing, as long as Luis doesnt get an injury or a nasty run of form.

But all in all great analysis and keep up the great work. helps the skeptics in seeing things clearly.

Great work as always JD!

Much appreciated

Updated 29th November 2012 (As it stands)

Liverpool missed out on the opportunity to gain some points in our table, but the result was an expected one for a top four place

Aiming for the title

Liverpool should draw against Spurs (A) - Lost -1
Spurs should beat Liverpool (H) - Won 0
Chelsea should beat Fulham (H) - Drew -2
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H) - Drew 0
Arsenal should draw against Everton (A) - Drew 0
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H) - Won 0
Man City should beat Wigan (A) - Won 0

Aiming for top four

Liverpool should lose against Spurs (A) - Lost 0
Spurs should draw against Liverpool (H) - Won +2
Chelsea should draw against Fulham (H) - Drew 0
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H) - Drew 0
Arsenal should lose against Everton (A) - Drew +1
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H) - Won 0
Man City should beat Wigan (A) - Won 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City 1
Chelsea -7
Spurs -8
Arsenal -9
Liverpool -12
Everton -14



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Chelsea +6
Man City +4
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -2
Spurs -3
Everton -5

Can't wait for the update now JD . Next weekend could also be interesting. We've got every chance of making top 4

What about WBA? Where would they sit in this?

Updated 3rd December 2012 (As it stands)

Spurs and Everton with the best results of the weekend. Chelsea and Arsenal with dismal results.  Spurs leapfrog Arsenal in the rankings.

Man City dip back outside title form - Man Utd continue to look like clear title favourites. Everton get their first better than expected result in 8 games.

Aiming for the title

Chelsea should beat West Ham (A) - Lost -3
Man City should beat Everton (H) - Drew -2
Everton should lose at Man City (A) - Drew +1
Liverpool should beat Southampton (H) - Won 0
Spurs should draw at Fulham (A) - Won +2
Arsenal should beat Swansea (H) - Lost -3
Man Utd should beat Reading (A) - Won 0

Aiming for top four

Chelsea should beat West Ham (A) - Lost -3
Man City should draw Everton (H) - Drew 0
Everton should lose at Man City (A) - Drew +1
Liverpool should beat Southampton (H) - Won 0
Spurs should draw at Fulham (A) - Won +2
Arsenal should beat Swansea (H) - Lost -3
Man Utd should beat Reading (A) - Won 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City -1
Chelsea -10
Spurs -6
Arsenal -12
Liverpool -12
Everton -13



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +4
Chelsea +3
Spurs -1
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -5
Everton -3



Next Weekend

Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all expected to win - therefore they can't gain points - can only stay level or drop points.

Man City - Man Utd and Everton - Spurs the other two games.  Lots of points available to gain for these four clubs.

2 points off Arsenal.
7 points off 3rd.

For all tough early games we are not a million miles away.
If we can put a good run of games together it will be interesting.

A lot of teams struggling and defensively the league has been shown as pretty weak.
If we can address attacking options in January we could drastically improve our position.

I know we'd probably need to average 2.0 a game. Looks tough.
That's not far off title winning form for a season. It would leave us in the range of >70 points.
We are on 19 points now.
We've had 7 in our last 4 games. 1.75.
If we can keep that up it would give us 60 points at the end of the season.
A 2.0 basically means going unbeaten and to do that we need to stop conceading
to the counter attack so often Maybe the return of Lucas will help in that regard.

So even if we carry the current form for the rest of the season the max we will hit
is in the 60 points bracket. We'll need a 2.0 to be up near 70. If we can do that
we will be top 4.

What about WBA? Where would they sit in this?

Applying the same rules to West Brom effectively wipes out their 7 point Premier League advantage on us - highlighting again how difficult our opening 14 games were.

Still doing well though chasing fourth place.

Whilst they

WBA (Title - Top Four)

Liverpool H (0 / +2)
Spurs A (0 / +1)
Everton H (0 / +2)
Fulham A (-3 / -1)
Reading H (0 / 0)
Villa A (-2 / -2)
QPR H (0 / 0)
Man City H (-1 / 0)
Newcastle A (-1 / 0)
Southampton H (0 / 0)
Wigan A (0 / 0)
Chelsea H (0 / +2)
Sunderland A (0 / 0)
Swansea A (-3 / -1)
West Brom (-3 / -3)

West Brom Chasing the Title = -13
West Brom Chasing the Top Four = 0

 How are we doing now? We were probably expected to be beat Wigan at Home, probably expected to lose at Tottenham, but probably gained a couple of points by winning at West Ham. Does that mean we're now bang on course for a top four slot? BTW I love this thread, don't let it disappear.

How are we doing now? We were probably expected to be beat Wigan at Home, probably expected to lose at Tottenham, but probably gained a couple of points by winning at West Ham. Does that mean we're now bang on course for a top four slot? BTW I love this thread, don't let it disappear.

"Next Weekend
Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all expected to win - therefore they can't gain points - can only stay level or drop points."

Totally agree with you about this thread mick, just going off that quote from JD I'd suspect we've remained the same -2 from 4th place form, the encouraging thing for me is that these games that we're expected to win are usually our downfall and we've managed the last 2 and long may that continue. Home against Villa I suspect we need to win again to maintain our level of form, our chance to gain ground will come against the Spuds, let's hope we can do a number on them and, statistically speaking, break into the CL spots.

*Stoke

 Ah right Stoke mate, I must confess you'd lost me there. Stoke is a hard ground to go to, but not hard enough that if we don't win some people on here will call it a disgrace. Some of the comments after the truly awful, earth shatteringly disasterous 2-1 defeat at White Hart Lane were frankly laughable.   

Ah right Stoke mate, I must confess you'd lost me there. Stoke is a hard ground to go to, but not hard enough that if we don't win some people on here will call it a disgrace. Some of the comments after the truly awful, earth shatteringly disasterous 2-1 defeat at White Hart Lane were frankly laughable.   

There were some shocking individual mistakes in that match combined with another poor display by a referee.You can understand why people are angry but most of the comments i saw after the game were the definition of knee-jerk i wouldn't take too much notice of them.

As for the Stoke game it will be one of our toughest tests of the season.Unlike games against the bigger sides they will be content to sit behind the ball and play dirty in order to scrape a point.If we can play with the fight that we had against West Ham and hopefully decisions go our way for once there is no reason why we can't get a win but if we don't it wont be the end of the world and my comments will be balanced as per usual.

I'd guess that's a -3 on our top 4 form. Must be sitting at  -5 at the moment. While it doesn't sound like much I think we'd need to go on a run of 6 consecutive wins to get us back to 0 (including a win at the Scum and Stoke). Massive blow today.

we are 12th, won 5 games all season and only 5 points off 4th - what's going on?

I thought it was locked! With our current position I think it worth a look now

This might just start looking interesting... 

Our form for the last six games is
Won 4
Lost 2
That gives us a 2.0 average.

Spurs are on the same.
Everton and Arsenal dropping form.

Should be an interesting finish to the season.

City have a 2.5 average over the last 6.

we are 12th, won 5 games all season and only 5 points off 4th - what's going on?

I know you posted that a whille ago now but I've only just seen it. Crazy isn't it? I can't remember such an open EPL table where anybody can beat anybody. It's crying out for a team to go on a run and shoot up into the CL places and I hope that can be us, now we have a bit more bite about us.

I'll get this updated this week!

Our form for the last six games is
Won 4
Lost 2
That gives us a 2.0 average.

Spurs are on the same.
Everton and Arsenal dropping form.

Should be an interesting finish to the season.

City have a 2.5 average over the last 6.

Arsenal were almost wrote off last season , and then they bounced back into Cl . is it possible we could do the same? Certainly it's not an impossibility.

Arsenal were almost wrote off last season , and then they bounced back into Cl . is it possible we could do the same? Certainly it's not an impossibility.

They had RVP last season.

They had RVP last season.

We have the SAS.

They had RVP last season.

Our team are beginning to click at this present moment in time , also Arsenal and Everton's form have slowed. I believe we'll finish 5th above the forementioned teams , we just left it too late for 4th spot .

I'll get this updated this week!

I'm really lost without this thread. Big thanks

Forget Arsenal and Everton they will soon enough be chasing us its Spurs we need to concentrate on now.


Arsenal
Everton
City
Stoke (away)
Chelsea (away)
And they have to come to anfield

They have just recorded a 5million loss (so cant see them strenghening in january)..All in all it wont be easy but im going for 4th!

Can anyone update this? I would be very interested in where we sit after our recent run of results.

^^^^^ Yes Please!...