League Season Analysis - 2012/13

Brilliant thread this JD.  Very interesting.

+1

Updated 26th November 2012 (As it stands)

Chelsea and Man City only sides to benefit this weekend from their draw.

Aiming for the title

United should have beaten QPR (H) - Won 0
Liverpool should have beaten Swansea (A) - Drew -2
Everton should have beaten Norwich (H) - Drew -2
Spurs should have beaten West Ham (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have beaten Aston Villa (A) - Drew -2
Chelsea should have drawn Man City (H) - Drew 0
Man City should have lost at Chelsea (A) - Drew +1

Aiming for top four

United should have beaten QPR (H) - Won 0
Liverpool should have drawn Swansea (A) - Drew 0
Everton should have beaten Norwich (H) - Drew -2
Spurs should have beaten West Ham (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have beaten Aston Villa (A) - Drew -2
Chelsea should have lost to Man City (H) - Drew +1
Man City should have lost at Chelsea (A) - Drew +1

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City 1
Chelsea -5
Spurs -8
Arsenal -9
Liverpool -11
Everton -14



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Chelsea +6
Man City +4
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -3
Everton -5
Spurs -5

Lots of opportunities for teams to get better than expected results tonight - Liverpool and Arsenal have the most available to gain as they have the trickiest fixtures of the evening.

Tonight's fixtures - expected results.

Aiming for the title

Liverpool should draw against Spurs (A)
Spurs should beat Liverpool (H)
Chelsea should beat Fulham (H)
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H)
Arsenal should draw against Everton (A)
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H)
Man City should beat Wigan (A)

Aiming for top four

Liverpool should lose against Spurs (A)
Spurs should draw against Liverpool (H)
Chelsea should draw against Fulham (H)
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H)
Arsenal should lose against Everton (A)
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H)
Man City should beat Wigan (A)

Great analysis, great thread.

Just to point out that the top  4 always springs a surprise team. A good run of games gives confidence a teams start winning games they are not meant to win. A Norwich is on an 8 games bounce, a West Brom are in the form of their life, a Swansea is unbeaten in 6/7 games, an Everton are in the best start of their season.

All these distorts the way teams approach games, wheather they sit and wait or throw caution to the winds, or try to preserve a 1 point from a 50/50 game.

i think the fixture didnt help the new manager, start of the season, i bet the fixture re-arranged and we started with the next 9 games instead of the previous 9 i bet reseults would have been much better, the team buzzing with confidence and could have won more games than draws.

The ability to turn defeats to draws and draws to wins is more of a mental thing and i think and hope we can build momentum with the next set of fixtures. If we defeat Spurs at home tonite i see us getting at least 21 points from the next 27.

And i still believe we are good enough for 4th regardless of Jan signing, as long as Luis doesnt get an injury or a nasty run of form.

But all in all great analysis and keep up the great work. helps the skeptics in seeing things clearly.

Great work as always JD!

Much appreciated

Updated 29th November 2012 (As it stands)

Liverpool missed out on the opportunity to gain some points in our table, but the result was an expected one for a top four place

Aiming for the title

Liverpool should draw against Spurs (A) - Lost -1
Spurs should beat Liverpool (H) - Won 0
Chelsea should beat Fulham (H) - Drew -2
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H) - Drew 0
Arsenal should draw against Everton (A) - Drew 0
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H) - Won 0
Man City should beat Wigan (A) - Won 0

Aiming for top four

Liverpool should lose against Spurs (A) - Lost 0
Spurs should draw against Liverpool (H) - Won +2
Chelsea should draw against Fulham (H) - Drew 0
Everton should draw against Arsenal (H) - Drew 0
Arsenal should lose against Everton (A) - Drew +1
Man Utd should beat West Ham (H) - Won 0
Man City should beat Wigan (A) - Won 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City 1
Chelsea -7
Spurs -8
Arsenal -9
Liverpool -12
Everton -14



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Chelsea +6
Man City +4
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -2
Spurs -3
Everton -5

Can't wait for the update now JD . Next weekend could also be interesting. We've got every chance of making top 4

What about WBA? Where would they sit in this?

Updated 3rd December 2012 (As it stands)

Spurs and Everton with the best results of the weekend. Chelsea and Arsenal with dismal results.  Spurs leapfrog Arsenal in the rankings.

Man City dip back outside title form - Man Utd continue to look like clear title favourites. Everton get their first better than expected result in 8 games.

Aiming for the title

Chelsea should beat West Ham (A) - Lost -3
Man City should beat Everton (H) - Drew -2
Everton should lose at Man City (A) - Drew +1
Liverpool should beat Southampton (H) - Won 0
Spurs should draw at Fulham (A) - Won +2
Arsenal should beat Swansea (H) - Lost -3
Man Utd should beat Reading (A) - Won 0

Aiming for top four

Chelsea should beat West Ham (A) - Lost -3
Man City should draw Everton (H) - Drew 0
Everton should lose at Man City (A) - Drew +1
Liverpool should beat Southampton (H) - Won 0
Spurs should draw at Fulham (A) - Won +2
Arsenal should beat Swansea (H) - Lost -3
Man Utd should beat Reading (A) - Won 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City -1
Chelsea -10
Spurs -6
Arsenal -12
Liverpool -12
Everton -13



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Man City +4
Chelsea +3
Spurs -1
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -5
Everton -3



Next Weekend

Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all expected to win - therefore they can't gain points - can only stay level or drop points.

Man City - Man Utd and Everton - Spurs the other two games.  Lots of points available to gain for these four clubs.

2 points off Arsenal.
7 points off 3rd.

For all tough early games we are not a million miles away.
If we can put a good run of games together it will be interesting.

A lot of teams struggling and defensively the league has been shown as pretty weak.
If we can address attacking options in January we could drastically improve our position.

I know we'd probably need to average 2.0 a game. Looks tough.
That's not far off title winning form for a season. It would leave us in the range of >70 points.
We are on 19 points now.
We've had 7 in our last 4 games. 1.75.
If we can keep that up it would give us 60 points at the end of the season.
A 2.0 basically means going unbeaten and to do that we need to stop conceading
to the counter attack so often Maybe the return of Lucas will help in that regard.

So even if we carry the current form for the rest of the season the max we will hit
is in the 60 points bracket. We'll need a 2.0 to be up near 70. If we can do that
we will be top 4.

What about WBA? Where would they sit in this?

Applying the same rules to West Brom effectively wipes out their 7 point Premier League advantage on us - highlighting again how difficult our opening 14 games were.

Still doing well though chasing fourth place.

Whilst they

WBA (Title - Top Four)

Liverpool H (0 / +2)
Spurs A (0 / +1)
Everton H (0 / +2)
Fulham A (-3 / -1)
Reading H (0 / 0)
Villa A (-2 / -2)
QPR H (0 / 0)
Man City H (-1 / 0)
Newcastle A (-1 / 0)
Southampton H (0 / 0)
Wigan A (0 / 0)
Chelsea H (0 / +2)
Sunderland A (0 / 0)
Swansea A (-3 / -1)
West Brom (-3 / -3)

West Brom Chasing the Title = -13
West Brom Chasing the Top Four = 0

 How are we doing now? We were probably expected to be beat Wigan at Home, probably expected to lose at Tottenham, but probably gained a couple of points by winning at West Ham. Does that mean we're now bang on course for a top four slot? BTW I love this thread, don't let it disappear.

How are we doing now? We were probably expected to be beat Wigan at Home, probably expected to lose at Tottenham, but probably gained a couple of points by winning at West Ham. Does that mean we're now bang on course for a top four slot? BTW I love this thread, don't let it disappear.

"Next Weekend
Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all expected to win - therefore they can't gain points - can only stay level or drop points."

Totally agree with you about this thread mick, just going off that quote from JD I'd suspect we've remained the same -2 from 4th place form, the encouraging thing for me is that these games that we're expected to win are usually our downfall and we've managed the last 2 and long may that continue. Home against Villa I suspect we need to win again to maintain our level of form, our chance to gain ground will come against the Spuds, let's hope we can do a number on them and, statistically speaking, break into the CL spots.

*Stoke

 Ah right Stoke mate, I must confess you'd lost me there. Stoke is a hard ground to go to, but not hard enough that if we don't win some people on here will call it a disgrace. Some of the comments after the truly awful, earth shatteringly disasterous 2-1 defeat at White Hart Lane were frankly laughable.   

Ah right Stoke mate, I must confess you'd lost me there. Stoke is a hard ground to go to, but not hard enough that if we don't win some people on here will call it a disgrace. Some of the comments after the truly awful, earth shatteringly disasterous 2-1 defeat at White Hart Lane were frankly laughable.   

There were some shocking individual mistakes in that match combined with another poor display by a referee.You can understand why people are angry but most of the comments i saw after the game were the definition of knee-jerk i wouldn't take too much notice of them.

As for the Stoke game it will be one of our toughest tests of the season.Unlike games against the bigger sides they will be content to sit behind the ball and play dirty in order to scrape a point.If we can play with the fight that we had against West Ham and hopefully decisions go our way for once there is no reason why we can't get a win but if we don't it wont be the end of the world and my comments will be balanced as per usual.

I'd guess that's a -3 on our top 4 form. Must be sitting at  -5 at the moment. While it doesn't sound like much I think we'd need to go on a run of 6 consecutive wins to get us back to 0 (including a win at the Scum and Stoke). Massive blow today.

we are 12th, won 5 games all season and only 5 points off 4th - what's going on?

I thought it was locked! With our current position I think it worth a look now

This might just start looking interesting... 

Our form for the last six games is
Won 4
Lost 2
That gives us a 2.0 average.

Spurs are on the same.
Everton and Arsenal dropping form.

Should be an interesting finish to the season.

City have a 2.5 average over the last 6.

we are 12th, won 5 games all season and only 5 points off 4th - what's going on?

I know you posted that a whille ago now but I've only just seen it. Crazy isn't it? I can't remember such an open EPL table where anybody can beat anybody. It's crying out for a team to go on a run and shoot up into the CL places and I hope that can be us, now we have a bit more bite about us.